Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a rating of "Buy" for China Eastern Airlines [1][6]. Core Insights - China Eastern Airlines is one of the three major state-owned airlines in China, benefiting from dual core hubs in Beijing and Shanghai. The company is positioned to capitalize on the recovering tourism market, which is expected to drive air travel demand. The report highlights a trend of decreasing growth in the civil aviation fleet size in China, influenced by global supply chain disruptions affecting aircraft manufacturers [1][4][9]. - The average price of aviation kerosene has decreased compared to the previous year, which is anticipated to enhance the company's profitability [4][9]. - The projected revenue for China Eastern Airlines from 2025 to 2027 is estimated at RMB 143.18 billion, RMB 152.11 billion, and RMB 159.50 billion, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 8.4%, 6.2%, and 4.9% [6][8]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - China Eastern Airlines, established on June 25, 1988, is a leading state-owned airline in China, with a significant presence in the aviation market. The company operates a modern fleet of 816 aircraft, making it one of the youngest fleets globally [17][23]. - The airline's main business is passenger and cargo transportation, with passenger services accounting for over 90% of total revenue in normal circumstances [24][9]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the total revenue reached RMB 132.12 billion, marking a 16.11% increase year-on-year, and the highest revenue in nearly a decade. The company has shown a recovery trend post-COVID-19, with significant revenue growth in 2023 and 2024 [38][45]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be RMB 1.405 billion, RMB 4.528 billion, and RMB 7.055 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [6][8]. Market Dynamics - The Chinese aviation market has seen a 172.8% increase in passenger transport volume over the past 15 years, with a growing trend towards market-based pricing for airfares [53][54]. - The three major airlines (Air China, China Eastern Airlines, and China Southern Airlines) accounted for 62.64% of the total transport turnover in 2024, indicating a consolidated market structure [55][56]. Operational Metrics - In 2024, the available seat kilometers (ASK) were 296.91 billion, reflecting a 21.20% year-on-year increase, while revenue passenger kilometers (RPK) reached 245.89 billion, up 34.89% year-on-year, resulting in a passenger load factor of 82.76% [28][36]. - The cargo segment has shown fluctuations, with available cargo ton kilometers at 9.51 billion and cargo turnover at 3.68 billion in 2024, indicating a recovery in cargo operations [36][40].