华源证券近日发布交通运输行业周报：国际航空运输协会（IATA）发布全球航空业最新财务展望。尽 管航空供应链瓶颈持续存在，但行业盈利已趋于稳健。2026年全球航空公司预计实现总净利润410亿美 元，创历史新高，但净利率仍维持在3.9%，与2025年持平。2026年亚太地区净利润估算66亿美元，中 国和印度引领区域增长，但单客利润仅3.20美元，处于较低水平。 以下为研究报告摘要： 投资要点： 一、行业动态跟踪 快递物流： 1）黑五新兴市场物流需求稳健增长，极兔速递巴西单日揽收量创新高。根据极兔节拍公众号，极兔巴 西在11月迎来订单规模双重突破：非平台类客户订单量较10月环比激增近40%，平台类客户订单量环比 提升约25%；与今年第三季度日均水平相比，平台类订单增幅高达80%。从年度维度来看，巴西市场当 前业务体量较去年同期已实现超200%的跨越式增长；与此同时，墨西哥、埃及等其他新兴市场同步承 接黑五消费外溢需求，保持着20%左右的稳定同比增长。 2）申通常德转运中心主体结构全面封顶，全面投产年处理包裹量可达50000万件。根据申通之声公众 号，湖南常德高新区的申通常德转运中心项目主体结构全面封顶。该项目总投资 ...

证券研究报告 晨会 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 12 月 16 日 风险提示：宏观经济环境变动风险、市场竞争风险、资料统计误差风险。 交运 航空供需持续向好，极兔海外市场高增—交通运输行业周报：快递物流：1） 黑五新兴市场物流需求稳健增长，极兔速递巴西单日揽收量创新高。2）申通常德转 运中心主体结构全面封顶，全面投产年处理包裹量可达 50000 万件。未来，这一智 能物流枢纽或将进一步增强申通在湘西北及云贵川地区的辐射能力，显著提升湖南 及周边区域的物流运行效率。航空机场：1）国际航协预计航空公司盈利预期稳健。 2）供应链瓶颈继续制约航空业发展。3）日上免税行将结束在上海机场的经营。航 运船舶港口：美国对委油油轮持续施压，合规油运需求有望添增量。 风险提示。1）宏观经济下滑风险，将会对交运整体需求造成较大影响。2）快递行 | 市场数据 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指数名称 | | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 年初至今 | | 上证指数 | | 3,824.81 | -1.11% | 17.23% | | 创业板指 | | 3,071.76 | ...

证券之星消息，12月16日航空机场板块较上一交易日上涨0.94%，中国东航领涨。当日上证指数报收于 3824.81，下跌1.11%。深证成指报收于12914.67，下跌1.51%。航空机场板块个股涨跌见下表： 从资金流向上来看，当日航空机场板块主力资金净流出1.86亿元，游资资金净流入1.23亿元，散户资金 净流入6272.28万元。航空机场板块个股资金流向见下表： 以上内容为证券之星据公开信息整理，由AI算法生成（网信算备310104345710301240019号），不构成投资建议。 ...

证券研究报告 交通运输 行业定期报告 板块表现： 航空供需持续向好，极兔海外市场高增 投资评级： 看好（维持） —交通运输行业周报（2025 年 12 月 8 日-2025 年 12 月 14 日） 投资要点： 一、一、行业动态跟踪 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 12 月 16 日 证券分析师 孙延 SAC：S1350524050003 sunyan01@huayuanstock.com 刘晓宁 SAC：S1350523120003 liuxiaoning@huayuanstock.com 王惠武 SAC：S1350524060001 wanghuiwu@huayuanstock.com 曾智星 SAC：S1350524120008 zengzhixing@huayuanstock.com 张付哲 SAC：S1350525070001 zhangfuzhe@huayuanstock.com 快递物流： 1）黑五新兴市场物流需求稳健增长，极兔速递巴西单日揽收量创新高。根据极兔节 拍公众号，极兔巴西在 11 月迎来订单规模双重突破：非平台类客户订单量较 10 月 环比激增近 40%，平台类客户订单量环比 ...

[Table_Page] 跟踪分析|航空机场 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 航空机场行业 11 月数据点评：淡季不淡，供需同比增速 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： | [Table_Grade] 行业评级 | 买入 | | --- | --- | | 前次评级 | 买入 | | 报告日期 | 2025-12-16 | 双升 [Table_PicQuote] 相对市场表现 -20% -11% -2% 6% 15% 24% 12/24 02/25 05/25 07/25 09/25 12/25 航空机场 沪深300 | [分析师： Table_Author]许可 | | | --- | --- | | | SAC 执证号：S0260523120004 | | | SFC CE No. BUY008 | | 0755-88285832 | | | xuke@gf.com.cn | | | 分析师： | 陈宇 | | | SAC 执证号：S0260524100002 | | | SFC CE No. BLW740 | | 021-38003771 | | | | shchenyu@gf.com ...

证券之星消息，12月15日航空机场板块较上一交易日上涨0.63%，华夏航空领涨。当日上证指数报收于 3867.92，下跌0.55%。深证成指报收于13112.09，下跌1.1%。航空机场板块个股涨跌见下表： 从资金流向上来看，当日航空机场板块主力资金净流出6398.72万元，游资资金净流入1929.99万元，散 户资金净流入4468.73万元。航空机场板块个股资金流向见下表： 以上内容为证券之星据公开信息整理，由AI算法生成（网信算备310104345710301240019号），不构成投资建议。 ...

讲究 所 行业轮动ETF策略周报 (20251208-20251212) 证券研究报告·策略周报 证券分析师:张一 S0670524030001 010-83270999-97050 zhangyi@cnht. com. cn 2025年12月15日 证券分析师:李杜 S0670524040001 021-50800937 l idu@cnht. com. cn 策略说明: · 金融街证券研究所基于策略报告《行业轮动下的策略组合报告:基于行业风格延续和 切换视角下的定量分析》(20241007)和《股票型ETF市场概览与配置方法研究:以基 于行业轮动策略的ETF组合为例》(20241013),构建基于行业和主题ETF的策略组合。 业绩追踪: 20251208-20251212期间,策略累计净收益约1.44%;相对于沪深300ETF的超额收益约 . 为1.53%。2024年10月14日至今,策略样本外累计收益约26.05%;相对于沪深300ETF累 计超额约5.03%。 数据来源:wind数据库,金融街证券研究所 图表3: 行业轮动ETF策略建仓以来累计收益率(20241014-20251212) 35.00% ...

// 一、市场要闻 // 1、中国11月经济数据全面发布 12月15日，国家统计局将公布11月工业增加值、社会消费品零售总额、固定资产投资等关键经济数据。机构预计，11月工业生产景气度将小幅回升，工业 增加值同比或升至5.0%左右。固定资产投资累计增速预计小幅收窄至-1.2%，房地产投资下行压力依然存在。消费方面，社会消费品零售总额预计维持在 3%左右，汽车、家电等传统品类零售仍保持负增长。 2、美国11月非农就业报告重磅来袭 推迟至12月16日发布的美国11月非农就业报告将成为市场焦点。值得注意的是，受此前政府停摆影响，本次报告将无法公布10月份失业率数据。最新ADP 数据显示，11月私营部门就业人数意外减少3.2万人，远低于市场预期，创2023年3月以来新低。这份报告将成为美联储12月政策会议前的重要参考，期货 市场显示交易员预计美联储再次降息25个基点的概率接近90%。 3、深证成指等主要指数样本集中调整生效 深证成指、创业板指、深证100、创业板50等指数的样本定期调整将于12月15日正式实施。其中，深证成指更换17只样本股，创业板指更换8只样本股，深 证100更换7只样本股，创业板50更换5只样本股 ...

Investment Rating - The report recommends "Buy" for the express delivery sector, specifically highlighting SF Holding and Zhongtong Express as favorable investment opportunities [2][4]. Core Views - The express delivery sector shows a year-on-year growth of 6% in the development scale index for November, with major companies benefiting from price increases due to reduced competition [2]. - The logistics sector is advised to focus on smart logistics, with Hai Chen Co. recommended due to improved demand [3]. - The aviation sector is experiencing a slight increase in flight volumes, with recommendations for China National Aviation and Southern Airlines based on profit elasticity from supply-demand optimization [4]. - The shipping sector sees a stable demand for container transport, with COSCO Shipping announcing new ship orders valued at 7.88 billion yuan [5]. - The road and rail sector shows a mixed performance, with a slight decline in truck traffic but a stable outlook for coal transportation [6]. Summary by Sections 1. Transportation Market Review - The transportation index decreased by 1.5% during the week of December 6-12, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.4% [13]. 2. Industry Fundamentals Tracking 2.1 Shipping and Ports - The container shipping index CCFI is at 1118.07 points, a 0.3% increase week-on-week but a 24.8% decrease year-on-year [22]. - The oil shipping index BDTI is at 1383.6 points, down 1.7% week-on-week but up 48.8% year-on-year [40]. 2.2 Aviation and Airports - The average daily flights increased by 2.9% year-on-year, with domestic flights up by 1.99% and international flights up by 7.78% [4]. - In October 2025, civil aviation passenger volume reached 67.84 million, a year-on-year increase of 8% [60]. 2.3 Rail and Road - National railway passenger volume in October 2025 was 410 million, a 10.14% increase year-on-year [81]. - National road freight volume was 3.706 billion tons, a slight increase of 0.08% year-on-year [86]. 2.4 Express Delivery and Logistics - The total express delivery volume for the week of December 1-7 was approximately 3.979 billion pieces, a 1.7% increase year-on-year [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the shipping industry, specifically recommending China Power, China Shipbuilding, and China Ship Defense, while also highlighting Yangtze River and Songfa shares as potential investments [4]. Core Insights - The report indicates an improvement in new ship orders during November and December, reinforcing the logic of the replacement cycle. The strong second-hand ship prices are positively influencing the new ship market [4]. - The report notes that VLCC (Very Large Crude Carrier) freight rates have exceeded expectations, with a current average of $114,420 per day, despite a slight week-on-week decline of 1%. The report anticipates significant upward potential for both charter rates and second-hand ship prices [4]. - The report emphasizes the resilience of the railway freight volume and highway truck traffic, suggesting steady growth in these sectors [4]. Summary by Sections Shipping Market - VLCC freight rates have shown a 110% increase in Q4 compared to Q3, with one-year charter rates rising by 23%. The report highlights that the second-hand ship prices have yet to reflect these changes [4]. - The Suezmax crude oil tanker rates have decreased by 4% to $71,888 per day, while Aframax rates increased by 3% to $62,987 per day [4]. Air Transportation - The report discusses the unprecedented challenges in the aircraft manufacturing chain and the ongoing trend of aging aircraft globally. It predicts a significant improvement in airline profitability as the industry approaches a turning point [4]. - Recommended airlines include China Eastern Airlines, China Southern Airlines, and Spring Airlines, among others, due to their strong demand and supply dynamics [4]. Express Delivery - The express delivery sector is entering a new phase of competition, with three potential scenarios outlined: price stabilization leading to profit recovery, continued competitive pressure, and potential mergers and acquisitions [4]. - Companies to watch include Shentong Express, YTO Express, and ZTO Express, with a focus on their performance in the upcoming annual reports [4]. Road and Rail - The report cites data from the Ministry of Transport indicating that from December 1 to December 7, national railway freight volume was 80.19 million tons, a decrease of 2.35% week-on-week [4]. - The report suggests that the highway sector will benefit from two main investment themes throughout 2025: high dividend yields and potential value management catalysts [4].