【市场复盘】 截至7月28日收盘，港股三大指数收盘涨跌不一。恒生指数收涨0.68%，报25562.13点；国企指数收涨 0.29%，报9177.15点；恒生科技指数收跌0.24%，报5664.02点。盘面上，大型科技股涨跌分化，医药、 金融行业走出强趋势行情。热点个股方面，腾讯控股涨近1%，快手涨近0.5%，美团跌超0.5%，小米集 团、比亚迪（002594）股份跌超1%。热点ETF方面，恒生科技指数ETF（513180）收涨0.13%。 【南向资金】 【机构观点】 【热点消息】 1、北京时间7月31日凌晨，美联储将公布利率决议。利率期货显示，市场预期本次议息会议大概率维持 利率不变，年内或仍降息2次。 2、7月28日，2025世界人工智能大会暨人工智能全球治理高级别会议闭幕。本届大会现场发布300余项 项目的采购需求，预计意向采购金额达162亿元。一批重大项目在闭幕式集中签约，涵盖智能驾驶、具 身智能和机器人等领域，共有31个项目签约，投资额超过150亿元。 3、近日，高盛将MSCI中国指数12个月目标点位从85点上调至90点，较上周五收盘价有约11%的潜在上 涨空间。年初至今，高盛已经十一次看多中国资产。 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the transportation industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The report highlights the ongoing consolidation in the express delivery sector, with Shentong Express planning to acquire Daniao Logistics for 362 million yuan, aiming to enhance its market position and differentiate itself from competitors [5] - The report emphasizes the recovery in air travel demand and the potential for long-term growth in the aviation sector, driven by macroeconomic improvements and a favorable supply-demand dynamic [13] - The shipping market is expected to benefit from rising oil transport demand due to OPEC+ production increases and a favorable interest rate environment, with a positive outlook for dry bulk shipping as well [14] Summary by Sections Express Delivery - Shentong Express is set to acquire Daniao Logistics for 362 million yuan, which is expected to enhance its market share by 0.8 percentage points and improve brand influence [5] - The express delivery sector shows resilient demand, with terminal prices at historical lows, limiting further downside [13] - Key companies to watch include Zhongtong Express, YTO Express, and SF Express, which are expected to benefit from cyclical recovery and cost control [13] Aviation - The aviation sector is experiencing low long-term supply growth, but demand is anticipated to benefit from macroeconomic recovery, leading to a favorable supply-demand balance [13] - The report notes that the overall passenger transport volume in civil aviation reached 370 million in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 6% [7] - Key companies to focus on include China Southern Airlines, Air China, and HNA Group [13] Shipping - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) reached a new high of 2258 points, up 119% year-to-date, driven by improved consumption expectations and seasonal factors [9] - The report suggests a positive outlook for oil transportation due to OPEC+ production increases and a favorable interest rate environment [14] - Companies to watch include China Merchants Energy Shipping and COSCO Shipping [14] Ports - China's port cargo throughput increased by 2.43% week-on-week, reaching 26.677 million tons, while container throughput rose by 2.61% to 6.64 million TEU [12][77] - The report highlights the stable cash flow and growth potential of port operations, suggesting a focus on companies like Tangshan Port and Qingdao Port [14] Road and Rail - National logistics operations are running smoothly, with rail freight volume increasing by 1.11% and highway freight traffic up by 0.67% [12] - The report indicates that road passenger traffic decreased by 3.92%, while freight volume increased by 2.86% [45]

Core Insights - The A-share market experienced a collective decline last Friday, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.33%, the Shenzhen Component down by 0.22%, and the ChiNext Index down by 0.23%. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 1,786.98 billion yuan [2][6] - In terms of industry performance, the electronics, computer, and real estate sectors led the gains, while the construction decoration, building materials, and food and beverage sectors lagged behind. Concept sectors such as Sora, photolithography machines, and multimodal AI saw significant increases, while the Hainan Free Trade Zone, Yaxia Hydropower concept, and pumped storage experienced declines [2][6] - The Hang Seng Index fell by 1.09%, and the Hang Seng Technology Index dropped by 1.13%. In overseas markets, the three major U.S. indices collectively rose, with the Dow Jones up by 0.47%, the S&P 500 up by 0.4%, and the Nasdaq up by 0.24% [2][6] Industry News - According to the National Bureau of Statistics, profits of industrial enterprises above designated size fell by 4.3% year-on-year in June, with the decline narrowing compared to May. The new momentum industries, represented by equipment manufacturing, showed rapid profit growth, indicating the sustained effect of the "two new" policies. From January to June, the total profit of industrial enterprises was 34,365 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.8%. The black metal smelting and rolling processing industry saw profits increase by 13.7 times, while the mining industry experienced a 30.3% decline [3][7] - The U.S. and the EU reached a 15% tariff agreement, which will impose tariffs on most European goods exported to the U.S., including automobiles. The EU is expected to increase investments in the U.S. by 600 billion dollars and purchase 150 billion dollars worth of U.S. energy products. Some products will be exempt from tariffs, including aircraft and certain chemicals and pharmaceuticals [3][7] Transportation Industry Insights - Public fund holdings in the transportation industry saw a rebound in Q2 2025 after three consecutive quarters of decline, with the total market value of public fund holdings in the transportation sector reaching 48.252 billion yuan, accounting for 13.3% of the fund's heavy positions, which is still below the benchmark allocation by 1.86 percentage points [8][9] - The transportation industry index rose by 2.71% in Q2 2025, achieving a relative return of 2.17% compared to the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index [9] - Within the sub-industries, the aviation and logistics sectors saw an increase in holdings, while the shipping ports and railway-highway sectors experienced a decrease. The express delivery sector is expected to benefit from reduced competition and improved profitability [8][10] Gaming Industry Insights - In July 2025, the National Press and Publication Administration announced the approval of 127 domestic games and 7 imported games, maintaining a high volume of game license issuance [11][12] - The approval of several major titles, including "Kingshot" by Diandian Interactive, indicates a robust supply side and a steady trend towards normalization in game licensing, suggesting ongoing recovery in the industry [12][15] - The gaming market is expected to see significant contributions from established companies with diverse product offerings and strong R&D capabilities, as evidenced by the successful approval of high-profile titles [12][15]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the express delivery and shipping industries, particularly highlighting the potential for significant elasticity in the market following the acquisition of Daniao Express by Shentong [2][25]. Core Insights - The express delivery industry is expected to continue its high growth rate in 2025, with the market currently pricing in pessimistic expectations due to price wars. A reversal in these expectations could lead to substantial market elasticity [2]. - The acquisition of Daniao by Shentong is seen as a catalyst for further consolidation in the supply side, which may shift market focus from transaction expectations to actual transactions, benefiting quality companies like YTO Express and Shentong Express [2]. - The shipping sector is highlighted as a crucial part of commodity trade, with high mineral prices driving active shipments. The report recommends China Merchants Energy Shipping and notes the performance of various shipping companies in the Hong Kong and US markets [2][25]. - The report emphasizes the resilience of railway freight and highway truck traffic, with steady growth expected in these sectors [2]. Summary by Sections Express Delivery - The express delivery sector is projected to maintain a high growth rate, with institutional holdings in major players at low levels. The market is currently pricing in a pessimistic outlook due to ongoing price wars, but a potential reversal could lead to significant market elasticity [2]. - The acquisition of Daniao by Shentong is expected to draw attention to further supply-side consolidation, with quality companies like YTO Express and Shentong Express likely to gain market share [2]. Shipping - Shipping is identified as a vital link in commodity trade, with high mineral prices leading to increased shipments. The report recommends China Merchants Energy Shipping and highlights the performance of various shipping companies in the Hong Kong and US markets [2][25]. - New ship prices have stabilized, and the performance of Chinese shipyards is expected to outperform their Japanese and Korean counterparts [2][25]. Railway and Highway - Railway freight volume and highway truck traffic are showing resilience, with steady growth anticipated. Data from the Ministry of Transport indicates a slight increase in freight volume [2]. - The report suggests that the highway sector has two main investment themes for 2025: high dividend yield investments and potential value management catalysts for undervalued stocks [2]. Aviation - The aviation sector is expected to benefit from a recovery in supply chains and an increase in wide-body aircraft utilization, with a positive long-term outlook for airline profitability [2]. - The report recommends several airlines, including China Eastern Airlines and Cathay Pacific, as potential investment opportunities [2]. Overall Market Performance - The transportation index increased by 2.95%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.26 percentage points, with the aviation sector showing the highest growth at 4.84% [3][11]. - The report notes that the shipping and aviation sectors are experiencing fluctuations in freight rates, with specific indices reflecting these changes [3][11].

投资要点： 重仓配置比例近一年来首次环比回升：我们根据同花顺/wind数据统 计了内地公募基金重仓股持仓情况，2025年Q2末公募基金重仓SW交通 运输行业的总市值为482.52亿元，环比2025年Q1末上升13.3%，占基 金重仓A股市值规模1.57%，低于标配比例1.86pct，环比2025Q1末上 升0.16pct，连续三个季度下降后首次回升。从市场表现来看，25Q2SW 交通运输行业指数上升2.71%，实现相对收益（相对于沪深300指数涨 跌幅）2.17%。 航空机场与物流获增持、航运港口及铁路公路遭减持: 从二级子行 业角度来看，各子行业持仓变化出现分化，航空机场与物流行业持仓 占比有所回升，航运港口及铁路公路行业持仓市值占比持续下降，进 一步具体来看：（1）物流行业，①快递行业获增持明显，主要个股 中除申通快递及德邦物流遭减持外其他个股均获得增持，其中顺丰控 股持仓市值大增61.63亿元（居Q2增持首位），"反内卷"背景下快 递行业或持续受益，吸引资金流入；②跨境物流行业增减持表现分化， 东航物流、中国外运遭减持，嘉友国际及中国外运H获得明显增持； ③供应链服务行业，厦门国贸获得增持并在Q2持股占 ...

Group 1 - A-shares experienced a strong upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3605.73 points, marking a 0.65% increase, while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext Index rose by 1.21% and 1.50% respectively, reaching 11193.06 points and 2345.37 points [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 18447 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 199 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1] - The market showed broad-based gains across various sectors, with notable increases in energy metals, small metals, aviation, securities, tourism, multi-financial services, glass fiber, bioproducts, and medical services, while precious metals and banking sectors declined [1] Group 2 - The recent market rally is attributed to the gradual resolution of negative factors affecting capital markets, leading to a significant recovery in market profitability since late June [2] - The market has shown a consistent upward trend, with five consecutive weeks of positive weekly candlesticks, indicating a stable position above the 3600-point mark [2] - Investment opportunities are seen in sectors such as brokerage firms, AH shares, innovative pharmaceuticals, computing power, and robotics, with a focus on performance-driven strategies complemented by policy support and industry growth [2]

证券研究报告 策略 香港资产重估进入新阶段 华泰研究 2025年7月23日 | 中国内地 深度研究 内外部负面因素改善快于预期,市场有望再上新台阶 外部犹动正在脱敏,相对预期反而有所改善。新一轮关税谈判下中国相对优 势上升;美国金融去监管、联储降息、稳定币扩容、国债久期调整等多重因 素助力下,美元指数有进一步下行空间,全球流动性继续宽松。国内政策出 台的速度和力度存在预期差。"反内卷"加码、互联网电商负面压力减轻以 及房地产政策都有积极变化。三季度一些可预见的压力相对减轻,港股第三 轮行情启动时间或比我们此前预期更早(《海外市场 2H25展望:再平衡进 行时》，2025.6.3），下半年市场有望再上新台阶。 下半年优选景气改善+低估值行业,科技正处在交集 恒生指数短期只需要风险情绪调整就可能突破阻力位,恒生科技修复空间更 大。具体细分板块上,我们建议优选景气改善+低估值行业。1)互联网方 向,如电商、本地生活等细分板块景气有筑底态势,估值已经较为合理;游 戏景气度较高,估值具有性价比:2)煤炭、水泥及周期品景气度或因"反 内卷"提速而加速筑底;3)社会服务、纺织服装、航空机场等正处于估值 不高+高景气的阶段; ...

Group 1 - The external disturbances are improving faster than expected, leading to a potential new peak in the market in the second half of the year [1][8][11] - The domestic policy environment is improving, which may alleviate profit pressures on companies [23][24] - The Hong Kong capital market is undergoing profound changes, with a focus on two long-term investment themes: large finance and technology [5][16] Group 2 - The report suggests selecting industries with improving sentiment and low valuations, particularly in the technology sector, which is currently at a low valuation and experiencing a recovery [2][31][32] - The AH premium is expected to have further downward space, with a long-term central tendency below 25% driven by a weaker dollar [4][54][55] - The performance of Hong Kong stocks is supported by improving corporate earnings, with expectations for continued recovery in EPS and ROE [4][23][24] Group 3 - The report highlights the importance of foreign capital in the Hong Kong market, noting that southbound trading accounts for 40% of transactions, indicating a shift in pricing power towards domestic institutions [3][40][42] - The technology sector, which constitutes nearly one-third of the market capitalization, is expected to see improved earnings prospects due to easing negative pressures [24][27] - The report emphasizes the potential for structural opportunities in sectors like social services, textiles, and aviation, which are currently undervalued yet experiencing high demand [32][34]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the transportation industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The express delivery sector shows significant divergence in June data, with a focus on the industry's anti-involution process [3] - The express logistics market is expanding, supported by the national strategy to boost domestic demand, with a year-on-year growth of 15.8% in express delivery volume in June 2025 [5] - The performance of major express companies varies, with SF Express maintaining a business volume growth rate of over 30%, while other companies like YTO Express and Yunda Express show slower growth [4][5] Summary by Sections Express Logistics - In June 2025, the total express delivery volume reached 16.87 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 15.8%, with total revenue of 126.32 billion yuan, up 9.0% [5][24] - Major express companies' performance in June: YTO Express (2.627 billion pieces, +19.34%), Yunda Express (2.173 billion pieces, +7.41%), SF Express (1.460 billion pieces, +31.77%) [4][28] - The market share for these companies is 15.6% for YTO, 12.9% for both Yunda and Shentong, and 8.7% for SF Express [4] Air Transportation - The air travel sector is expected to benefit from macroeconomic recovery, with a year-on-year increase of 4.4% in passenger transport volume in June 2025 [52] - Major airlines are projected to improve their performance in Q2 2025 due to better supply-demand dynamics and lower oil prices [8] Shipping and Ports - The shipping sector is anticipated to benefit from OPEC+ production increases and a favorable economic environment, with a focus on crude oil transportation [16] - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) increased by 27.8% week-on-week, indicating a recovery in the bulk shipping market [11][68] - Container throughput at Chinese ports showed a slight increase in cargo volume but a decrease in container throughput [81] Road and Rail - In June 2025, road freight volume increased by 2.86% year-on-year, while rail freight volume rose by 7.36% [45] - National logistics operations are running smoothly, with a slight increase in freight truck traffic [14] Supply Chain Logistics - Companies like Shenzhen International and Debon Logistics are expected to benefit from strategic transformations and improved profitability [15]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the aviation industry is "Overweight" indicating a positive outlook for the sector [7]. Core Insights - The civil aviation passenger transport volume continued to grow steadily in June, with a year-on-year increase of 3.8%, reaching approximately 60.9 million passengers. Capacity saw a slight increase of 0.3% year-on-year [4]. - The average aircraft utilization rate in June was 7.8 hours per day, showing a month-on-month decrease of 1% but remained stable year-on-year [4]. - Major airlines reported growth in capacity and passenger turnover, with notable increases from Spring Airlines (+12%) and China Eastern Airlines (+10%) in passenger turnover compared to the previous year [4]. - The international market is recovering, with June international flight numbers reaching 55,000, recovering to 87.1% of the same period in 2019 [4]. - The report highlights a structural differentiation in recovery across regions, with demand expected to accelerate as the summer travel season begins [4]. Summary by Sections Passenger Transport Data - In June, the total passenger transport volume was approximately 60.9 million, a 3.8% increase year-on-year. Domestic market capacity increased by 0.3%, while international flights reached 55,000, recovering to 87.1% of 2019 levels [4][5]. - Airlines' passenger turnover (RPK) showed growth, with China Eastern Airlines at +10% and Spring Airlines at +12% year-on-year [4]. Airline Performance - The report provides a summary of key airline metrics for June, including ASK (Available Seat Kilometers) and RPK, with China Eastern Airlines and Spring Airlines showing significant growth [5]. - The passenger load factor for June was highest for Spring Airlines at 92.1%, while China Southern Airlines and China Eastern Airlines also reported strong load factors [4][5]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends continued investment in the aviation sector, highlighting the strong supply logic and demand elasticity, with specific recommendations for China National Aviation, China Eastern Airlines, Spring Airlines, and others [4][7].