Core Insights - The report highlights the growth potential of China Eastern Airlines, one of the three major state-owned airlines in China, which has a leading wide-body fleet and operates from key hubs in Beijing and Shanghai [3][6][7] - The aviation market in China is experiencing a recovery, with a significant increase in passenger transport volume and a trend towards market-driven pricing for airfares [8][9] Company Overview - China Eastern Airlines was established on June 25, 1988, and became the first Chinese airline to be listed in Hong Kong, New York, and Shanghai in 1997. The airline's passenger transport services account for over 90% of its total revenue, projected to be 92% in 2024 [7] - The company's revenue for 2024 is expected to reach CNY 132.12 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 16.11%, with a gross profit margin of 4.26%. For the first half of 2025, revenue is projected at CNY 66.82 billion, a 4.09% increase year-on-year [7] Industry Performance - The aviation industry in China has seen a 172.8% increase in passenger transport volume over the past 15 years, with domestic passenger transport volume expected to reach 730 million in 2024, a 17.86% increase year-on-year [8][9] - The cargo and mail transport volume is projected to be 8.983 million tons in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 22.15% [8] Key Factors Influencing Growth - Aircraft supply is experiencing a downward trend in growth due to global supply chain disruptions affecting major aircraft manufacturers' delivery capabilities [9] - Domestic travel demand is expected to rise, supported by increasing per capita flight frequency and GDP growth, alongside a recovering tourism market [9] - The average price of aviation kerosene for the first nine months of 2025 is reported at USD 85.85 per barrel, down 11.93% from the previous year, which is beneficial for reducing operational costs and enhancing profitability [9]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a rating of "Buy" for China Eastern Airlines [1][6]. Core Insights - China Eastern Airlines is one of the three major state-owned airlines in China, benefiting from dual core hubs in Beijing and Shanghai. The company is positioned to capitalize on the recovering tourism market, which is expected to drive air travel demand. The report highlights a trend of decreasing growth in the civil aviation fleet size in China, influenced by global supply chain disruptions affecting aircraft manufacturers [1][4][9]. - The average price of aviation kerosene has decreased compared to the previous year, which is anticipated to enhance the company's profitability [4][9]. - The projected revenue for China Eastern Airlines from 2025 to 2027 is estimated at RMB 143.18 billion, RMB 152.11 billion, and RMB 159.50 billion, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 8.4%, 6.2%, and 4.9% [6][8]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - China Eastern Airlines, established on June 25, 1988, is a leading state-owned airline in China, with a significant presence in the aviation market. The company operates a modern fleet of 816 aircraft, making it one of the youngest fleets globally [17][23]. - The airline's main business is passenger and cargo transportation, with passenger services accounting for over 90% of total revenue in normal circumstances [24][9]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the total revenue reached RMB 132.12 billion, marking a 16.11% increase year-on-year, and the highest revenue in nearly a decade. The company has shown a recovery trend post-COVID-19, with significant revenue growth in 2023 and 2024 [38][45]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be RMB 1.405 billion, RMB 4.528 billion, and RMB 7.055 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [6][8]. Market Dynamics - The Chinese aviation market has seen a 172.8% increase in passenger transport volume over the past 15 years, with a growing trend towards market-based pricing for airfares [53][54]. - The three major airlines (Air China, China Eastern Airlines, and China Southern Airlines) accounted for 62.64% of the total transport turnover in 2024, indicating a consolidated market structure [55][56]. Operational Metrics - In 2024, the available seat kilometers (ASK) were 296.91 billion, reflecting a 21.20% year-on-year increase, while revenue passenger kilometers (RPK) reached 245.89 billion, up 34.89% year-on-year, resulting in a passenger load factor of 82.76% [28][36]. - The cargo segment has shown fluctuations, with available cargo ton kilometers at 9.51 billion and cargo turnover at 3.68 billion in 2024, indicating a recovery in cargo operations [36][40].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1][5]. Core Views - China Southern Airlines has the largest fleet size in the country and leads in passenger capacity among domestic airlines. The growth rate of China's civil aviation fleet is showing a "step-down" trend, while the ongoing recovery in the tourism market is expected to boost air travel demand. The average price of aviation kerosene has decreased compared to the same period last year, which is beneficial for enhancing the company's profitability [1][5][8]. Company Overview - China Southern Airlines is the leading air transport service provider in China, with a well-established fleet and a focus on building dual hubs in Guangzhou and Beijing. The company has maintained the highest passenger transport volume among domestic airlines for 44 consecutive years. The airline operates a diverse fleet, including Boeing and Airbus models, and has a significant market share in terms of flight frequency and route network [16][24][25]. Financial Data - The company's total revenue for 2024 reached approximately 174.22 billion RMB, marking a 8.94% year-on-year increase, and is the highest in nearly a decade. The company has experienced continuous losses for four years since the pandemic, but the financial performance is showing signs of recovery, with a significant increase in revenue in 2023 [39][41][43]. Industry Overview - The aviation industry in China has seen a 172.8% growth in passenger transport over the past 15 years, with a gradual marketization of air ticket pricing. The three major airlines (Air China, China Eastern Airlines, and China Southern Airlines) account for over 62.64% of the total transport turnover in the market. The domestic passenger transport volume is expected to reach 730 million in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 17.86% [47][48][49].