航运市场季节性调整
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航运衍生品数据日报-20250905
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-09-05 06:31
Group 1: Shipping Derivatives Data - The current values of Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI), China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI), SCFI - West America, SCFIS - West America, SCFI - East America, SCFI - Northwest Europe, SCFIS - Northwest Europe, and SCFI - Mediterranean are 1445, 1156, 1923, 1013, 2866, 1481, 1773, and 2145 respectively, with corresponding previous values of 1415, 1175, 1644, 1041, 2613, 1668, 1990, and 2225, and the respective percentage changes are 2.10%, -1.58%, 16.97%, -2.69%, 9.68%, -11.21%, -10.90%, and -3.60% [4]. - The current values of contracts EC2506, EC2608, EC2510, EC2512, EC5602, and EC2604 are 1443.0, 1607.4, 1300.7, 1676.0, 1518.7, and 1247.8 respectively, with corresponding previous values of 1441.1, 1609.5, 1323.0, 1701.2, 1534.0, and 1255.1, and the respective percentage changes are 0.13%, -0.13%, -1.69%, -1.48%, -1.00%, and -0.58% [4]. - The current values of EC2606, EC2608, EC2410, EC2412, EC2602, and EC2604 positions are 943, 301, 49963, 16447, 5653, and 7306 respectively, with corresponding previous values of 958, 303, 51946, 16386, 5775, and 7297, and the respective changes are -15, -2, -1983, 61, -122, and 9 [4]. - The current values of month - spreads 10 - 12, 12 - 2, and 12 - 4 are -375.3, 157.3, and 428.2 respectively, with corresponding previous values of -378.2, 167.2, and 446.1, and the respective changes are 2.9, -9.9, and -17.9 [4]. Group 2: Market News - The "Gemini Alliance" of Maersk and Hapag - Lloyd announced seasonal suspension plans for the upcoming National Day Golden Week. There are 4 voyages on the Asia - Europe route (weeks 38 - 41) and 6 voyages on the Trans - Pacific route (4 to the US West Coast and 2 to the US East Coast from Asia between September 30 and October 14). HMM also plans to suspend 5 voyages on the China - Europe route during the Golden Week [5]. - The US Trade Representative's Office extended the exclusion list measures in the investigation of China's behavior, policies, and practices related to technology transfer, intellectual property, and innovation until November 29, 2025 [5]. - Houthi rebels claimed to have attacked the container ship MSC Aby with two drones and a winged missile, but the ship seems to have reached the destination port [5]. - According to a recent ruling of the Federal Circuit Court, the existing tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) will remain valid until at least October 15, 2025. October 14, 2025, is a key date in the US shipping calendar, being the deadline for appealing the court's recent tariff ruling and the effective date for the US Trade Representative to impose 301 tariff fines on Chinese - built ships [5]. Group 3: Market Review and Strategy - **Market Review**: The market showed a weak and volatile trend. Maersk's opening price for week 38 dropped by 200 week - on - week to 1700, narrowing the afternoon's gains. Tuesday's rise was driven by MSC's suspension of two voyages for the National Day, the increased expectation of non - resumption of navigation in the Red Sea after Houthi attacks, and the court's ruling that Trump's so - called "reciprocal" tariffs were illegal. However, market optimism faded, refocusing on spot quotes. Spot freight rates have not stopped falling, and pre - October 1 stocking may lead to rate drops in mid - to late September, while some US - bound ships being transferred to European routes increases supply and further pressures freight rates [6][7]. - **Strategy**: Short contract 10 on rallies and conduct a rolling 10 - 12 reverse spread [8].