航运衍生品数据日报 | | | | 国贸期货研究院 能源化工研究中心 卢钊毅 | | 投资咨询号: Z0021177 从业资格号:F03101843 | | 2025/10/10 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 数据来源：Clarksons、Wind | | | | | | | 运价指数 现值 | 上海出口集装箱运价 综合指数SCFI | 中国出口集装箱运价 指数CCFI | SCFI-美西 | SCFIS-美西 | SCFI-美东 | SCFI-西北欧 | | E Alle | | 1115 | 1087 | 1460 | 876 | 2385 | 971 | | 运 | 前值 | 1198 | 1120 | 1636 | 921 | 2557 | 1052 | | | 涨跌幅 | -6.97% | -2.93% | -10.76% | -4.89% | -6.73% | -7.70% | | ਵਿ | | SCFIS-西北欧 | SCFI-地中海 | | | | | | 数 | 现值 | 1046 | 1485 | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The shipping market shows a weak and volatile trend. The main reason is that CM4 raised the November freight rate to 3000, and MSK kept the freight rate for the second week of October at 1400, which increased the expectation of stopping the decline. However, the confidence in price increases gradually declined, and there was a reduction in positions and a price drop before the holiday [7]. - In late September, shipping companies collectively lowered prices to compete for goods, and the freight rate once dropped to 1300 US dollars/FEU. Before the peak season at the end of the year, Maersk took the lead in announcing a 400 - dollar/FEU increase for the second half of October. But with the decline in both supply and demand in October, it is likely to return to the off - season market. Subsequently, European routes will focus on stabilizing and supporting prices during the transition between the off - season and peak season, and it is difficult for shipping companies' announced price increases to materialize [8]. - The recommended strategy is to conduct a long - short spread trade between the October and December contracts [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Shipping Freight Index - **Spot Freight Index**: The current values of Shanghai Export Container Freight Composite Index (SCFI), China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI), SCFI - US West, SCFIS - US West, SCFI - US East, and SCFI - Northwest Europe are 1115, 1087, 1460, 921, 2385, and 971 respectively, with corresponding declines of - 6.97%, - 2.93%, - 10.76%, - 22.80%, - 6.73%, and - 7.70% compared to the previous values. The current values of SCFIS - Northwest Europe and SCFI - Mediterranean are 1120 and 1485 respectively, with declines of - 6.12% and - 9.34% [5]. - **Contract Freight Index**: The current values of contracts EC2506, EC2608, EC2510, EC2512, EC5602, and EC2604 are 1452.7, 1595.0, 1115.0, 1756.3, 1667.0, and 1253.0 respectively, with declines of - 2.08%, - 1.37%, - 2.11%, - 1.16%, - 1.07%, and - 1.23% compared to the previous values [5]. - **Contract Positions**: The current positions of EC2606, EC2608, EC2410, EC2412, EC2602, and EC2604 are 930, 530, 29314, 20683, 8852, and 9110 respectively. The position changes are - 8, - 12, - 3117, - 1012, 84, and 11 respectively [5]. - **Monthly Spread**: The current monthly spreads of 10 - 12, 12 - 2, and 12 - 4 are - 641.3, 89.3, and 503.3 respectively, with changes of - 3.3, - 2.7, and - 5.1 compared to the previous values [5]. 3.2 Market News and Analysis - Trans - Pacific shipping companies are increasing capacity cuts to curb the decline in freight rates. On the east - west trans - Pacific routes, the spot freight rate has fallen below the fixed contract price signed by medium - sized retailers in May. In the next four weeks, trans - Pacific liner companies will accelerate the implementation of blank sailings to stabilize the continuously falling spot freight rate. The market is unusually weak before the Golden Week this year [6]. - The spot prices this week: GEMINI in early October dropped to 1500, OA to 1550, PA to 1400, and MSC to 1600. The market FMK freight rate center in late September was at 1500 [7].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 II GERIK 航运衍生品数据日报 | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 能源化工研究中心 卢钊毅 | 投资咨询号： Z0021177 | | 2025/9/29 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 数据来源：Clarksons、Wind | | | 从业资格号:F03101843 | | | | 运价指数 | 上海出口集装箱运价 | 中国出口集装箱运价 | SCFI-美西 | SCFIS-美西 | SCFI-美东 | SCFI-西北欧 | | | | 综合指数SCFI | 指数CCFI | | | | | | til | 现值 | 1115 | 1087 | 1460 | 1193 | 2385 | 971 | | Alla | 前值 | 1198 | 1120 | 1636 | 1349 | 2557 | 1052 | | 运 | 涨跌幅 | -6.97% | -2.93% | -10.76% | -11.56% | -6.73% | -7.70% | | 指 | | SCFI ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 II GERIK 航运衍生品数据日报 | | | | 国贸期货研究院 能源化工研究中心 | | 投资咨询号： Z0021177 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 卢钊毅 | | 从业资格号:F03101843 | | 2025/9/26 | | | | | 数据来源：Clarksons、Wind | | | | | | | 运价指数 | 上海出口集装箱运价 | 中国出口集装箱运价 | SCFI-美西 | SCFIS-美西 | SCFI-美东 | SCFI-西北欧 | | | | 综合指数SCFI | 指数CCFI | | | | | | E | 现值 | 1198 | 1120 | 1636 | 1193 | 2557 | 1052 | | Alla | 前值 | 1398 | 1125 | 2370 | 1349 | 3307 | 1154 | | 运 | 涨跌幅 | -14.31% | -0.45% | -30.97% | -11.56% | -22.68% | -8 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 II GERIK 航运衍生品数据日报 | | | | 国贸期货研究院 能源化工研究中心 | | 投资咨询号：Z0021177 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 卢钊毅 | | 从业资格号:F03101843 | | 2025/9/25 | | | | | 数据来源：Clarksons、Wind | | | | | | | 运价指数 | 上海出口集装箱运价 综合指数SCFI | 中国出口集装箱运价 指数CCFI | SCFI-美西 | SCFIS-美西 | SCFI-美东 | SCFI-西北欧 | | (三三 | 现值 | 1198 | 1120 | 1636 | 1193 | 2557 | 1052 | | Alla | 前值 | 1398 | 1125 | 2370 | 1349 | 3307 | 1154 | | 运 | 涨跌幅 | -14.31% | -0.45% | -30.97% | -11.56% | -22.68% | -8.84% | | 情 | | SC ...

航运衍生品数据日报 国贸期货研究院 能源化工研究中心 户到教 数据来源：Clarksons、Wind | | | 戸到数 | | Sales - V id ad 从业资格号：F03101843 | | 2025/9/24 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 数据来源：Clarksons、Wind | | | | | | 运价指数 | 上海出口集装箱运价 | 中国出口集装箱运价 | SCFI-美西 | SCFIS-美西 | SCFI-美东 | SCFI-西北欧 | | | 综合指数SCFI | 指数CCFI | | | | | | 现值 | 1198 | 1120 | 1636 | 1193 | 2557 | 1052 | | 前值 | 1398 | 1125 | 2370 | 1349 | 3307 | 1154 | | 涨跌幅 | -14.31% | -0.45% | -30.97% | -11.56% | -22.68% | -8.84% | | | SCFIS-西北欧 | SCFI-地中海 | | | | | | 现值 | 1193 | ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 航运衍生品数据日报 国贸期货研究院 能源化工研究中心 户到教 数据来源：Clarksons、Wind | | | | 卢钊教 | | do a die a la made in the may and 从业资格号:F03101843 | | 2025/9/22 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 数据来源：Clarksons、Wind | | | | | | | 运价指数 | 上海出口集装箱运价 | 中国出口集装箱运价 | SCFI-美西 | SCFIS-美西 | SCFI-美东 | SCFI-西北欧 | | | | 综合指数SCFI | 指数CCFI | | | | | | 業 | 现值 | 1198 | 1120 | 1636 | 1349 | 2557 | 1052 | | = | 前值 | 1398 | 1125 | 2370 | 980 | 3307 | 1154 | | 15 | 涨跌幅 | -14.31% | -0.45% | -30.97% | 37.65% | - ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The EC market showed a slight rebound, mainly following the strong overall commodity sentiment. The 12 - contract was supported by factors such as the suspension of China - Europe freight trains, the expectation of National Day sailings suspension, and price - holding. [8][9] - In the European shipping market, based on EPMI data, the cargo volume is expected to bottom out in October and turn around in November. From late September to late October, shipping companies will "compete for cargo", but the "ROLLINGPOOL" strategy in the off - season may intensify the decline in freight rates. It is expected that the offline freight rates will fall back to the May low in late October, and shipping companies will start to hold prices through contracts after the cargo volume recovers in November. The suspension of some shipping capacity during the National Day will not be restored after the festival, but the reduction of ships in the off - season has limited impact on the market. [9] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Freight Index | Index | Present Value | Previous Value | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SCFI (Comprehensive) | 1398 | 1444 | - 3.21% | | CCFI | 1125 | 1149 | - 2.07% | | SCFI - US West | 2370 | 2189 | 8.27% | | SCFIS - US West | 1349 | 980 | 37.65% | | SCFI - US East | 3307 | 3073 | 7.61% | | SCFI - Northwest Europe | 1154 | 1315 | - 12.24% | | SCFIS - Northwest Europe | 1440 | 1566 | - 8.05% | | SCFI - Mediterranean | 1738 | 1971 | - 11.82% | [6] 3.2 Contract Information | Contract | Present Value | Previous Value | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | EC2506 | 1471.6 | 1431.9 | 2.77% | | EC2608 | 1625.9 | 1603.7 | 1.38% | | EC2510 | 1169.7 | 1163.1 | 0.57% | | EC2512 | 1673.8 | 1656.2 | 1.06% | | EC5602 | 1572.1 | 1516.9 | 3.64% | | EC2604 | 1283.7 | 1253.9 | 2.38% | [6] 3.3 Position Information | Position | Present Value | Previous Value | Change Value | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | EC2606 | 957 | - | (37) | | EC2608 | 444 | 429 | 15 | | EC2410 | 47517 | 47772 | (255) | | EC2412 | 19759 | 19598 | 161 | | EC2602 | 6719 | 6330 | 389 | | EC2604 | 8233 | 8066 | 167 | [6] 3.4 Month - spread Information | Month - spread | Present Value | Previous Value | Change Value | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 10 - 12 | - 504.1 | - 493.1 | (11.0) | | 12 - 2 | 101.7 | 139.3 | (37.6) | | 12 - 4 | 390.1 | 402.3 | (12.2) | [6] 3.5 Spot Price Information - GEMINI: The average price in September dropped to 1600. Maersk's wk38 opening price was 1700, HPL - QQ was 1750 in late September, and HPL - SPOT was 1550. - 04: The average price of the alliance was 1800, CMA was 2000, OOCL was 1650, and EMC was 1900. - PA: The average price of the alliance was 1700, ONE was 1800, and HMN was 1600. - MSC: The reported price in late September was 1750. The freight rate center of PAK in the market in late September was 1750. [9]

II GERIK 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 航运衍生品数据日报 国贸期货研究院 能源化工研究中心 户到教 数据来源：Clarksons、Wind | | | | 卢钊教 | | 10 从业资格号:F03101843 | | 2025/9/15 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 数据来源：Clarksons、Wind | | | | | | | 运价指数 | 上海出口集装箱运价 | 中国出口集装箱运价 | SCFI-美西 | SCFIS-美西 | SCFI-美东 | SCFI-西北欧 | | | | 综合指数SCFI | 指数CCFI | | | | | | 集 | 现值 | 1398 | 1125 | 2370 | 980 | 3307 | 1154 | | = | 前值 | 1444 | 1149 | 2189 | 1013 | 3073 | 1315 | | ि | 涨跌幅 | -3.21% | -2.07% | 8.27% | -3.26% | 7.61% | -12.24% | | ਵ | | S ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 II CEREK 航运衍生品数据日报 | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 能源化工研究中心 卢钊毅 | 投资咨询号：Z0021177 | | 2025/9/11 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 数据来源：Clarksons、Wind | | 从业资格号:F03101843 | | | | | | 上海出口集装箱运价 | 中国出口集装箱运价 | | | | | | | 运价指数 | 综合指数SCFI | 指数CCFI | SCFI-美西 | SCFIS-美西 | SCFI-美东 | SCFI-西北欧 | | | 现值 | 1444 | 1149 | 2189 | 980 | 3073 | 1315 | | | 前值 | 1445 | 1156 | 1923 | 1013 | 2866 | 1481 | | 运 | 涨跌幅 | -0.04% | -0.62% | 13.83% | -3.26% | 7.22% | -11.21% | | חמ | | SCFIS-西北欧 | SCF ...