投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 II GERING 航运衍生品数据日报 国贸期货研究院 能源化工研究中心 投资咨询号: Z0021177 卢钉毅 2025/8/20 从业资格号: F03101843 数据来源：Clarksons、Wind | | 运价指数 | 上海出口集装箱运价 | 中国出口集装箱运价 | SCFI-美西 | SCFIS-美西 | SCFI-美东 | SCFI-西北欧 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 综合指数SCFI | 指数CCFI | | | | | | 集 | 现值 | 1460 | 1193 | 1820 | 1106 | 2279 | 1759 | | | 前値 | 1490 | 1201 | 1823 | 1082 | 2792 | 1961 | | 运 | 涨跌幅 | -1.98% | -0.62% | -0.16% | 2.22% | -18.37% | -10.30% | | मि 1E | | SCFIS-西北欧 | SCFI-地中海 | | | | | | 数 | 现值 | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core View - The spot price of shipping has peaked, and the subsequent focus is on the downward slope of prices until the end of October. The shipping companies are facing increasing pressure to secure cargo, and the current spot freight rates have entered a rapid downward phase. The freight rates on the European route are expected to break through the 2000 mark in September [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Shipping Freight Index - **Current and Previous Values and Changes**: The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) has a current value of 1490, a previous value of 1551, and a decline of -3.94%. The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) has a current value of 1201, a previous value of 1233, and a decline of -2.59%. Other routes such as SCFI - West US, SCFI - East US, and SCFI - Northwest Europe also show varying degrees of decline [4]. 3.2 Shipping Contracts - **Contract Price Changes**: Contracts such as EC2506, EC2508, etc., show different price changes. For example, EC2506 has a price increase of 0.17% [5]. - **Contract Positions**: The positions of contracts like EC2606, EC2508 show different changes. For example, the position of EC2606 decreased by 8 [5]. - **Contract Month - to - Month Differences**: The month - to - month differences such as 10 - 12, 12 - 2, 12 - 4 also show changes. For example, the 10 - 12 month - to - month difference increased by 18.8 [5]. 3.3 Market News - **Tariff and Diplomatic News**: The US and China need to decide whether to extend the current tariff suspension agreement by August 12. Trump threatens to impose higher tariffs on countries buying Russian oil. Trump and Putin will meet in Alaska on August 15 [6]. - **Shipping Route News**: South Korea will start pilot operations on the "Northern Sea Route" in 2026. Three Chinese small - scale carriers will provide several voyages on this route in late summer 2025 [6]. - **US Import News**: The latest Global Port Tracker (GPT) report shows that US imports in the last four months of 2025 will decline significantly year - on - year, mainly due to pre - stocking in late 2024 and the pre - peak before the tariff takes effect this year [6]. 3.4 Market Analysis - **Market Trend**: The market is in a volatile state [7]. - **Spot Price Analysis**: The spot price has peaked and is in a downward phase. Shipping companies on the European route are under great pressure to secure cargo, and the spot freight rates are expected to decline further [8]. 3.5 Investment Strategy - **Strategy Suggestion**: Short the October contract on rallies (take profit gradually as the recent decline is large), and hold the long - December and short - April spread [9].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The shipping derivatives market shows a weak and volatile trend. The main reason is that overtime ships have intensified the oversupply of capacity during the off - season, leading to an overall weak and volatile market. The Maersk's late - session cabin opening price and the less - than - expected tariff situation have also affected the market [7]. - The spot price has peaked, with the quotation in early August starting to weaken and driving the late - August price down. The 10 - contract's main focus is on the decline slope of freight rates from August to October [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Contents Shipping Derivatives Data - **China Export Container Freight Rates**: The SCFI - West America, SCFI - East America, SCFIS - West America, SCFI - Northwest Europe, SCFI - Mediterranean, and SCFIS - Northwest Europe all showed declines, with the SCFIS - Northwest Europe having the largest decline of - 11.99% [4]. - **EC Contracts**: The EC2506, EC2508, and EC2604 showed increases in price, while EC2510 and EC2512 showed decreases. In terms of positions, EC2410 increased by 1055, while others decreased to varying degrees [4][5]. Market News - China and the US will continue to promote the extension of the temporarily suspended reciprocal tariffs and China's counter - measures [6]. - The US will impose a 50% tariff on copper products and their derivatives starting from August 1 [6]. - Trump hopes to change the Gaza policy to a comprehensive agreement to solve all problems at once [6]. - Japan's economic and fiscal policy minister will urge the US to implement the auto - tariff agreement and get Trump to sign the relevant executive order [6]. Strategy - Short the 10 - contract on rallies (gradually take profits as it has corrected significantly recently) and hold the 12 - 4 calendar spread [9].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Shipping Derivatives Data Daily Report [3] - Date: August 4, 2025 [4] - Author: Lu Zhaoyi from the Energy and Chemical Research Center of Guomao Futures Research Institute [4] - Data Sources: Clarksons, Wind [4] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The market for shipping derivatives is in a state of shock. Spot prices started to weaken in early August, leading to a synchronous decline in late August. The peak of spot prices is showing signs, and it is expected that the freight rates of scheduled cargo will peak at the end of July and early August, then gradually decline until late August when the decline slope will intensify. The main focus of the 10 - contract game is the decline slope of freight rates from August to October. The recommended strategy is to short the 10 - contract on rallies (take profit as it has corrected significantly recently) and hold the 12 - 4 calendar spread [6][7]. Group 4: Shipping Index Analysis Freight Rate Index - **Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI)**: The current value is 1551, down 2.63% from the previous value of 1593 [4]. - **China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI)**: The current value is 1233, down 2.27% from the previous value of 1261 [4]. - **SCFI - US West**: The current value is 2021, down 2.23% from the previous value of 2067 [4]. - **SCFIS - US West**: The current value is 1284, down 1.31% from the previous value of 1301 [4]. - **SCFI - US East**: The current value is 3126, down 7.46% from the previous value of 3378 [4]. - **SCFI - Northwest Europe**: The current value is 2051, down 1.87% from the previous value of 2090 [4]. - **SCFIS - Northwest Europe**: The current value is 2316, down 3.50% from the previous value of 2400 [4]. - **SCFI - Mediterranean**: The current value is 2333, down 3.52% from the previous value of 2418 [4]. EC Contracts Price - **EC2506**: The current value is 1465.1, up 0.18% from the previous value of 1462.5 [4]. - **EC2508**: The current value is 2126.5, up 0.23% from the previous value of 2121.6 [4]. - **EC2510**: The current value is 1424.0, down 0.08% from the previous value of 1425.1 [4]. - **EC2512**: The current value is 1692.4, up 0.01% from the previous value of 1692.3 [4]. - **EC5602**: The current value is 1490.0, up 0.36% from the previous value of 1484.7 [4]. - **EC2604**: The current value is 1325.0, up 0.07% from the previous value of 1324.1 [4]. Position - **EC2606 Position**: The current value is 795, down 13 from the previous value of 808 [4]. - **EC2508 Position**: The current value is 4465, down 408 from the previous value of 4873 [4]. - **EC2410 Position**: The current value is 52376, up 558 from the previous value of 51818 [4]. - **EC2412 Position**: The current value is 8440, down 20 from the previous value of 8460 [4]. - **EC2602 Position**: The current value is 4142, down 82 from the previous value of 4224 [4]. - **EC2604 Position**: The current value is 5112, up 29 from the previous value of 5083 [4]. Calendar Spread - **10 - 12 Spread**: The current value is - 268.4, down 1.2 from the previous value of - 267.2 [4]. - **12 - 2 Spread**: The current value is 202.4, down 5.2 from the previous value of 207.6 [4]. - **12 - 4 Spread**: The current value is 367.4, down 0.8 from the previous value of 368.2 [4]. Group 5: Spot Market Analysis - **GEMINI**: Maersk's wk33 opening price increased from 2800 to 2900, while HPL's price dropped to 3150 in early August [6]. - **04**: The average quoted price in early August was 3300, with CMA at 3450, EMC at 3500, and OCCL at 3250 [6]. - **PA**: Due to a large open position, the price continued to drop to 3100 and is likely to be further adjusted downwards. ONE's price is 3150, and HMM's is 3100 [6]. - **MSC**: The quoted price in early August was 3350 [6]. Group 6: Strategy Recommendations - Short the 10 - contract on rallies (take profit as it has corrected significantly recently) and hold the 12 - 4 calendar spread [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The spot price of shipping derivatives basically peaked at the end of July. It is expected to decline slowly until late August and then the decline rate will intensify. The main focus of the 10 - contract game is the decline rate of freight rates from August to October. The strategy is to short the 10 - contract on rallies (take profits due to recent large pullbacks) and hold the 12 - 4 calendar spread [5][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Shipping Freight Index - **Spot Index**: The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) and China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) both declined. SCFI dropped by 3.30%, CCFI by 3.23%. Among different routes, SCFI - US West decreased by 3.50%, SCFIS - US West by 1.31%, SCFI - US East by 6.48%, SCFI - Northwest Europe increased by 0.53%, SCFIS - Northwest Europe decreased by 3.50%, and SCFI - Mediterranean by 4.35% [3]. - **Contract Index**: All contract indices declined. EC2506 dropped by 3.41%, EC2508 by 0.81%, EC2510 by 2.97%, EC2512 by 2.63%, EC2602 by 3.09%, and EC2604 by 4.47% [3]. - **Position**: For positions, EC2606 increased by 32, while EC2508 decreased by 724, EC2410 by 3056, EC2412 by 45, EC2602 by 77, and EC2604 by 184 [3]. - **Calendar Spread**: The 10 - 12 spread increased by 2.1 to - 267.2, the 12 - 2 spread increased by 1.6 to 207.6, and the 12 - 4 spread increased by 16.3 to 368.2 [3]. Market News - USTR Greer hopes for positive progress in China - related trade but does not expect a major breakthrough. Trump's trade team also anticipates no major breakthrough in China negotiations. The EU - China summit commemorated the 50th anniversary of diplomatic relations, with the meeting period shortened from two days to one at China's request, reflecting escalating tensions. The US - China trade negotiation team met in Stockholm, and both sides expressed the importance of stable economic and trade relations and the intention to continue consultations [4].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market of shipping derivatives shows a pattern of mixed trends with some indices declining and some contracts rising. The spot price of shipping is expected to peak at the end of July and gradually decline, and the 10 - contract focuses on the decline slope of freight rates from August to October. The recommended strategy is to short the 10 - contract on rallies and hold the 12 - 4 calendar spread [5][6][7] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Freight Index - **Current and Previous Values and Changes**: The current values of Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI), China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI), SCFI - US West, SCFIS - US West, SCFI - US East, and SCFI - Northwest Europe are 1647, 1304, 2142, 1301, 3612, and 2079 respectively, with previous values of 1699, 1348, 2219, 1318, 3862, and 2068 respectively, and the corresponding percentage changes are - 3.30%, - 3.23%, - 3.50%, - 1.31%, - 6.48%, and 0.53%. The current values of SCFIS - Northwest Europe and SCFI - Mediterranean are 2316 and 2418 respectively, with previous values of 2400 and 2528 respectively, and the percentage changes are - 3.50% and - 4.35% [3] Contracts - **Current and Previous Values and Changes**: The current values of contracts EC2506, EC2508, EC2510, EC2512, EC2602, and EC2604 are 1514.2, 2139.0, 1468.7, 1738.0, 1532.0, and 1386.1 respectively, with previous values of 1504.9, 2111.0, 1460.0, 1735.0, 1521.3, and 1370.0 respectively, and the percentage changes are 0.62%, 1.33%, 0.60%, 0.17%, 0.70%, and 1.18%. The current values of EC2606, EC2508, EC2410, EC2412, EC2602, and EC2604 positions are 776, 5597, 54874, 8505, 4301, and 5267 respectively, with previous values of 762, 5926, 50726, 8131, 4328, and 5107 respectively, and the changes are 14, - 329, 4148, 374, - 27, and 160 [3] Month - Spread - **Current and Previous Values and Changes**: The current values of the 10 - 12, 12 - 2, and 12 - 4 month - spreads are - 269.3, 206.0, and 351.9 respectively, with previous values of - 275.0, 213.7, and 365.0 respectively, and the changes are 5.7, - 7.7, and - 13.1 [3] Market Situation - **Market Trend**: The market shows a pattern of mixed trends. The near - month contracts are affected by the continuous decline of the shipping company's price opening in early August, and the US - China and EU - China tariff talks may provide emotional support. The 08 contract had a limit - down opening on Wednesday morning, possibly due to the exchange's forced liquidation of over - position parts. On Thursday, the near - month contracts were strong due to the 90 - day extension of the US - China tariff negotiation [5] Spot Price - **Price Forecast**: The spot price is basically confirmed to peak at the end of July. The shipping company's price opening in early August continues the price in late July but gradually decreases. The shipping demand and loading rate at the end of July are good, but the high capacity deployment in early August weakens the effect of building a stockpiling pool. It is expected that the spot price will peak at the end of July and early August, then decline slowly until late August, after which the decline slope will increase [6] Strategy - **Investment Strategy**: Short the 10 - contract on rallies (take profit as it has pulled back recently) and hold the 12 - 4 calendar spread [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market shows a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength. The near - term is affected by the continuous decline in airlines' prices in early August. The US - EU - China tariff talks may provide emotional support, but the outcome of the China - US talks is not expected to be better than market expectations, and the probability of postponed or over 20% tariffs is higher [7]. - The spot price basically peaked at the end of July. Airlines continued to use the late - July freight rates in early August but gradually lowered them as the booking time approached. The demand and loading rate at the end of July were good, but the high - capacity deployment in early August weakened the effect of the domestic cargo rolling pool. Spot prices are expected to peak at the end of July or early August, decline slowly until late August, and then the decline rate will increase. The main focus of the 10 - contract is the decline rate of freight rates from August to October [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Shipping Derivatives Data - **Freight Rate Index**: The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) is currently at 1593, down 3.30% from the previous value; the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) is at 1261, down 3.23%. Among different routes, SCFI - US West decreased by 3.50%, SCFIS - US West by 1.31%, SCFI - US East by 6.48%, SCFI - Northwest Europe by 0.53%, SCFIS - Northwest Europe by 3.50%, and SCFI - Mediterranean by 4.35% [5]. - **Contract Prices**: For contracts such as EC2506, EC2508, etc., the current values and their changes compared to the previous values are presented. For example, EC2506 is currently at 1493.6, down 1.61% [5]. - **Contract Positions**: The current and previous positions of contracts like EC2606, EC2508, etc., and their changes are given. For instance, the current position of EC2606 is 832, with an increase compared to the previous value [5]. - **Monthly Spreads**: The current and previous values of monthly spreads such as 10 - 12, 12 - 2, and 12 - 4, and their changes are provided. For example, the 10 - 12 spread is currently 680.4, down 4.7 from the previous value [5]. Market Strategy - The recommended strategy is to short the 10 - contract on rallies and hold the 12 - 4 positive spread [9].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall trend of the EC market is downward. It is expected that the freight rates on the European route will peak at the end of July, with a low possibility of a rate hike in August, and even if a hike is called, the success rate will be low. Freight rates are about to enter a rounded - top trend, and an accelerated decline is expected at the end of August [7][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Shipping Freight Index - **Present Values and Changes**: The present values of Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) and China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) are 1647 and 1261 respectively, with daily changes of - 3.30% and - 3.23%. SCFI - US West, SCFIS - US West, SCFI - US East, and SCFI - Northwest Europe are at 2067, 1301, 3378, and 2090 respectively, with changes of - 3.50%, 2.76%, - 6.48%, and 0.53%. SCFIS - Northwest Europe and SCFI - Mediterranean are at 2400 and 2418, with changes of - 0.87% and - 4.35% [4]. 3.2 Shipping Derivative Contracts - **Contract Prices and Changes**: For contracts EC2506, EC2508, EC2510, EC2512, EC2602, and EC2604, the present values are 1518.0, 2212.6, 1527.5, 1720.2, 1518.8, and 1361.7 respectively, with changes of 0.74%, - 1.44%, - 3.56%, - 3.35%, - 2.78%, and - 1.47% [4][5]. - **Contract Positions and Changes**: The present positions of EC2606, EC2508, EC2410, EC2412, EC2602, and EC2604 are 788, 8358, 49977, 8520, 4479, and 5525 respectively, with changes of - 53, - 1326, - 609, - 221, 152, and 12 [5]. - **Monthly Spread and Changes**: The present monthly spreads for 10 - 12, 12 - 2, and 12 - 4 are 685.1, - 192.7, and 358.5 respectively, with changes of 24.1, 3.3, and - 39.4 [5]. 3.3 Market Influencing Factors - **Price Announcements by Shipping Companies**: ONE's August upper - ten - day list price for large containers remains the same as in late July, and CM4 reduced prices at the end of July. MSK's August first - week freight rate is lower than the current selling price, and Maersk's overtime ship opening also affected the market [8]. 3.4 Investment Strategy - The recommended strategy is to short contracts 10 on rallies and hold the long - 12 short - 4 calendar spread [9].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The EC market rebounded on Friday with the 08 contract surging due to Maersk's announced PSS price increase of $500 for long - term contracts in August and ONE's online quote increase of $300. However, the market sentiment fluctuated as ONE's offline August early - period list price remained the same as late - July and CML cut prices at the end of July. The 10 contract declined on Monday afternoon, and the market dropped on Tuesday afternoon as MSK's August first - week freight rate was lower than the current selling price. On Wednesday, it was affected by Maersk's overtime ship opening at $2700. Overall, it rebounded on Thursday afternoon due to the positive commodity market, but some airlines continued to cut prices for late - July and early - August. It is expected that the European line freight rate will peak at the end of July, with a low possibility of price hikes in August, and even if there are price hikes, the success rate will be low. The freight rate is about to enter an arc - top trend, and the accelerated decline is expected at the end of August [7]. - The strategy is to short the 10 contract on rallies and hold the 12 - 4 calendar spread [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Freight Index - **Current Values**: The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) is 1647, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) is 1304, SCFI - US West is 2142, SCFIS - US West is 1301, SCFI - US East is 3612, SCFI - Northwest Europe is 2079, SCFIS - Northwest Europe is 2400, and SCFI - Mediterranean is 2528 [5]. - **Previous Values**: SCFI was 1733, CCFI was 1314, SCFI - US West was 2194, SCFIS - US West was 1266, SCFI - US East was 4172, SCFI - Northwest Europe was 2099, SCFIS - Northwest Europe was 2421, and SCFI - Mediterranean was 2667 [5]. - **Percentage Changes**: SCFI decreased by 4.98%, CCFI decreased by 0.78%, SCFI - US West decreased by 2.37%, SCFIS - US West increased by 2.76%, SCFI - US East decreased by 13.42%, SCFI - Northwest Europe decreased by 0.95%, SCFIS - Northwest Europe decreased by 0.87%, and SCFI - Mediterranean decreased by 5.21% [5]. 3.2 Contracts - **Current Values**: EC2506 is 1506.9, EC2508 is 2244.9, EC2510 is 1583.9, EC2512 is 1779.9, EC2602 is 1562.3, and EC2604 is 1382.0 [5]. - **Previous Values**: EC2506 was 1468.8, EC2508 was 2239.7, EC2510 was 1537.0, EC2512 was 1701.8, EC2602 was 1477.3, and EC2604 was 1324.0 [5]. - **Percentage Changes**: EC2506 increased by 2.59%, EC2508 increased by 0.23%, EC2510 increased by 3.05%, EC2512 increased by 4.59%, EC2602 increased by 5.75%, and EC2604 increased by 4.38% [5]. 3.3 Positions - **Current Values**: EC2606 position is 841, EC2508 position is 9684, EC2410 position is 50586, EC2412 position is 8741, EC2602 position is 4327, and EC2604 position is 5513 [5]. - **Previous Values**: EC2606 position was 807, EC2508 position was 11039, EC2410 position was 50131, EC2412 position was 8446, EC2602 position was 4094, and EC2604 position was 5800 [5]. - **Change Values**: EC2606 increased by 34, EC2508 decreased by 1355, EC2410 increased by 455, EC2412 increased by 295, EC2602 increased by 233, and EC2604 decreased by 287 [5]. 3.4 Calendar Spreads - **Current Values**: The 10 - 12 spread is 661.0, the 12 - 2 spread is - 196.0, and the 12 - 4 spread is 397.9 [5]. - **Previous Values**: The 10 - 12 spread was 702.7, the 12 - 2 spread was - 164.8, and the 12 - 4 spread was 377.8 [5]. - **Change Values**: The 10 - 12 spread decreased by 41.7, the 12 - 2 spread decreased by 31.2, and the 12 - 4 spread increased by 20.1 [5].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 航运衍生品数据日报 表明,这可能指的是与日本的重大贸易协议。 【EC】 行情综述:震荡。 周五08合约大幅拉涨,主因一马士基宣布8月针对长协的PSS涨价500,同时ONE8月线上报价提升300,市场提前交易8 月宣涨。周一市场原本预期8月船司存进一步喊涨驱动，最新ONE公布线下8月上旬表价继续沿用7月下旬的大拒3308 美金报价,同时CMA也7月底也降价,因为之前CMA会宣涨的预期比较强,因此市场对此情绪上有所波动，10合约周一 尾盘带头下降。周二午后WSK开舱8月首周的运价为2900，低于目前在售的3100,被视为运价见顶的信号,因此盘面 午后下挫。 展望后市,预计欧线7月底运价见顶,8月喊涨可能性较小,即使喊涨成功率也不高。运价即将进入圆弧项走势，运 价加速下跌预计在8月末。 策略:逢高空10,12-4正套持有。 | | | | 国贸期货研究院 能源化工研究中心 卢钊毅 | | 投资咨询号： Z0021177 | | 2025/7/24 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 数据 ...