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集运早报-20250911
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-09-11 01:34
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Week39 ship - company average is $1660 (equivalent to 1150 points on the discounted market). The basis for October is -117.4 points, and the spread between October and December is -406.6 points. Today's spot change is due to Maersk opening bookings at $1550 in Week39, with PA dropping to $1600 - $1700 and OA quoting $1650 - $1700. There is still room below the October valuation, so short positions can be held. The October - December spread is reasonable. Currently, the spot is in a downward phase. With high weekly average capacity in the second half of September and low ship - company loading rates, the overall driver is downward. It is expected that the December futures will mainly trade on the downward driver and operate weakly in the short term [2] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Data - **Contract Prices and Changes**: EC2510 closed at 1267.4 with a -0.10% change, EC2512 at 1674.0 with a -0.5% change, EC2602 at 1524.0 with a -0.22% change, EC2604 at 1246.0 with a -0.85% change, and EC2606 at 1443.9 with a 0.66% change [2] - **Trading Volumes and Open Interest Changes**: EC2510 had a trading volume of 15226 and an open - interest change of 114; EC2512 had a trading volume of 8134 and an open - interest change of 7249; EC2602 had a trading volume of 885 and an open - interest change of 23; EC2604 had a trading volume of 447 and an open - interest change of 22; EC2606 had a trading volume of 100 and an open - interest change of 43 [2] - **Month - to - Month Spreads**: The spread between EC2510 - 2512 was -406.6 (with a day - on - day increase of 7.6 and a week - on - week decrease of 31.3), and the spread between EC2512 - 2602 was 150.0 (with a day - on - day decrease of 5.5 and a week - on - week decrease of 7.3) [2] 3.2 Spot Index Data - **SCHIS SCFI**: On September 8, 2025, it was 1566.46 points, down 11.68% from the previous period and 11.21% compared to two periods ago [2] - **SCHIS SCFI (Container Discount)**: On September 5, 2025, it was $1315 per TEU, down 11.21% from the previous period [2] - **CCFI (European Route)**: On September 5, 2025, it was 1638.77 points, down 2.79% from the previous period [2] - **NCFI**: On September 5, 2025, it was 855.93 points, down 7.92% from the previous period [2] 3.3 Recent European Route Quotation Data - **Week37**: The average quotation was $2100 (equivalent to 1450 points on the discounted market). MSK started at $1900 and then rose to $1950, PA quoted $2100 - $2150, and OA quoted $2100 - $2300 [3] - **Week38**: The average quotation was $1800 (equivalent to 1260 points on the discounted market). MSK started at $1700 and then rose to $1760, PA and MSC quoted $1800 - $1950, and OA quoted $1650 - $2020 [3] - **Week39**: The average quotation was $1660 (equivalent to 1150 points on the discounted market). MSK opened bookings at $1550, PA dropped to $1600 - $1700, and OA quoted $1650 - $1700 [2][3]