集运早报 | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | | 2025/12/31 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | ਉਨ੍ਹੇ | | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌 | 基差 | 昨日成交量 | | 昨日持仓昼 | 持合变动 | | | EC2602 | | 1795.1 | -1.53% | -52.5 | 24777 | | 27855 | -2582 | | | EC2604 | | 1160.2 | -0.83% | 582.4 | 7238 | | 21241 | 44 | | | EC2606 | | 1370.0 | -0.29% | 372.6 | 856 | | 2230 | - 1249 | | | EC2608 | | 1500.1 | 0.16% | 242.5 | 86 | | 1196 | -10 | | | EC2610 | | 1056.0 | 0.12% | 686.6 | 643 | | 6084 | 72 | | | 月差 | | 前一日 | 前两日 | 前三日 | 日环 ...

集运早报 | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | | 2025/12/23 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | ਵਨ | | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌 | 基美 | 昨日成交昼 | | 昨日持仓屋 | 持仓变动 | | | EC2512 | | 1631.0 | 0.06% | -41.8 | 100 | | 1956 | -27 | | | EC2602 | | 1871.8 | 8.84% | -282.6 | 52704 | | 36510 | 5003 | | | EC2604 | | 1166.8 | 3.37% | 422.4 | 11708 | | 20471 | 1634 | | | EC2606 | | 1320.0 | 2.46% | 269.2 | 587 | | 2184 | -36 | | | EC2608 | | 1486.2 | 2.27% | 103.0 | 256 | | 1197 | -91 | | 期货 | EC2610 | | 1061.0 | 1.02% | ...

12/10 以色列军队对目前中其控制的加沙汗尤尼斯部分地区发动了空袭和炮击 12/10 哈马斯官员表示：解除巴勒斯坦人的武装就等于夺走他们的生命。 隼运昼报 | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | | 2025/12/11 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 合约 | | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌 | 基 | 昨日成交量 | | 昨日持会 | 持仓变动 | | 期货 | EC2512 | | 1655.1 | -0.58% | -146.0 | 321 | | 3169 | -114 | | | EC2602 | | 1665.2 | 2.80% | -156.1 | 35894 | | 31382 | રિકેટ | | | EC2604 | | 1080.7 | 0.66% | 428.4 | 3703 | | 19219 | -159 | | | EC2606 | | 1225.6 | 0.53% | 283.5 | 380 | | 2274 | -69 | | | EC2608 | | 137 ...

2025年12月4日 集运日报 (航运研究小组) 市场多空博弈，盘面宽幅震荡, 已建议轻仓试多,关注春节前出货行情,运价并无明显波动。 SCFIS、NCFI运价指数 11月28日 | 12月1日 | II FZOD | | --- | --- | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS (欧洲航线) 1483.65点, 较上期下跌9.5% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (综合指数) 972.63点, 较上期上涨2.77% | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS (美西航线) 948.77点,较上期下跌14.4% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (欧洲航线) 1024.64点, 较上期上涨7.67% | | 11月28日 | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (美西航线) 881.66点, 较上期下跌7.77% | | | 11月28日 | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFl公布价格1403.13 点,较上期上涨9.57点 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI欧线价格1404USD/TEU, 较上期上涨2.71% | 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI (综合指数) 1121.80点, 较上期下跌0.1% ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The 12 contract is moving towards the delivery logic, with P1 around 1550 points. P2 and P3 are benchmarked against the second - half of December cabin space, and the prices are expected to be stable with a slight increase. The 02 contract has a neutral valuation, follows the spot price in the short - term, and there are expectations for the peak season. Despite high capacity, the spot price in January is not expected to be overly pessimistic due to the late Spring Festival, strong cargo volume on the European line this year, and the price cut in December benefiting the price increase in January. If the peak season is gradually realized, the 02 contract may have more upside potential. The 04 contract is still recommended to be shorted on rallies [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - EC2512 closed at 1636.7 yesterday, up 0.34%, with a basis of - 153.1, a trading volume of 705, an open interest of 4286, and an open interest change of - 215. EC2602 closed at 1492.5, up 1.40% (0.54% might be a misprint), with a basis of - 8.8, a trading volume of 26585, an open interest of 38244, and an open interest change of - 1867 (- 129 might be a misprint). EC2604 closed at 1078.0, with a basis of 405.7, a trading volume of 4192, and an open interest of 18614. EC2606 closed at 1237.0, up 1.79%, with a basis of 246.7, a trading volume of 278, an open interest of 2170, and an open interest change of - 84. EC2608 closed at 1357.2, up 1.36%, with a basis of 126.5, a trading volume of 102, an open interest of 1622, and an open interest change of - 8. EC2610 closed at 1033.2, up 1.19%, with a basis of 450.5, a trading volume of 441, an open interest of 3888, and an open interest change of - 86 [2] - For the month - spread, EC2512 - 2504 was 558.7, down 0.2 from the previous day and down 82.0 week - on - week. EC2512 - 2602 was 144.2, down 15.0 from the previous day and down 7.6 week - on - week. EC2502 - 2604 was 414.5, up 14.8 from the previous day and down 8.4 week - on - week [2] Spot Market - The SCFI (European line) index on December 1, 2025, was 1483.65 points, down 9.50% from the previous period, with a price of 1404 dollars/TEU. The CCFI index on November 28, 2025, was 1449.34 points, up 1.14% from the previous period. The NCFI index on November 28, 2025, was 1024.64 points, up 7.67% from the previous period [2] Recent European Line Spot Situation - The price increase in the first half of December failed. In Week 49, the average was 2360 dollars, equivalent to 1650 points on the disk. In Week 50, MSK's opening price dropped to 2200 dollars, and other shipping companies followed suit. The current central price is 2270 dollars, equivalent to 1580 points on the disk. YML cut the price of two ships in Week 50 by 150 to 1750 dollars, while MSC increased the price by 200 to 2600 dollars. In the second half of December, MSC announced a price increase to 3500 dollars, and ONE increased the price to 2800 dollars. Shipping companies are expected to announce price increases for January cabin space in early December [4] Related News - On November 26, the mediators of the Gaza cease - fire agreed to stop violations and implement the agreement. On November 29, the Lebanese Hezbollah said it would retaliate against Israel for the attack on a senior commander [5]

葉运早报 | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | | 2025/12/1 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 合约 | | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌 | 募 | 昨日成交量 | | 昨日持仓量 | 持仓变动 | | | EC2512 EC2602 | | 1631.1 | 1.15% 6.07% | 8.3 | 1737 4146/ | | 4501 40111 | -7/31 -28-7 | | | EC2604 | | 1471.9 1072.2 | 1.67% | 167.5 567.2 | 7369 | | 18743 | 42 | | | EC2606 | | 1215.2 | 2.11% | 424.2 | ਦੀ ਰੇ | | 2254 | 63 | | 期货 | EC2608 | | 1339.0 | 2.1 5% | 300.4 | 251 | | 1630 | -20 | | | EC2610 | | 1021.0 | 0.87% | 618.4 | ਰੇਟੇ 4 | | 3975 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The spot index's sharp rise drives the far - month contracts. Risk - preferring investors are advised to pre - layout the 02 contract and focus on the freight rate support logic in December [1]. - The tariff issue has a marginal effect, and the current core is the direction of spot freight rates. The main contract may be in the bottom - building process, and it is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see [3]. 3. Summary by Related Content Freight Index - On November 3, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1504.80 points, up 24.5% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US - West route was 1329.71 points, up 4.9% from the previous period [2]. - On November 7, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) (composite index) was 1053.62 points, down 4.24% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 911.73 points, down 5.58% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US - West route was 1349.1 points, down 7.14% from the previous period [2]. - On November 7, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) published price was 1495.10 points, down 3.6 points from the previous period; the SCFI European route price was 1323 USD/TEU, down 1.6% from the previous period; the SCFI US - West route was 2212 USD/FEU, down 16.4% from the previous period [2]. - On November 7, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) was 1058.17 points, up 3.6% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1366.85 points, up 3.3% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US - West route was 814.14 points, up 5.4% from the previous period [2]. Economic Data - In October, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month; the composite PMI output index was 50.0%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month [3]. - The initial value of the US S&P Global services PMI in October was 55.2 (expected 53.5, previous value 54.2); the initial value of the manufacturing PMI was 52.2 (expected 52, previous value 52); the initial value of the composite PMI was 54.8 (expected 53.1, previous value 53.9) [3]. - The initial value of the euro - zone manufacturing PMI in October was 45.9 (expected 45.1, previous value 45); the initial value of the services PMI was 51.2 (expected 51.5, previous value 51.4); the initial value of the composite PMI was 49.7 (expected 49.7, previous value 49.6). The euro - zone Sentix investor confidence index in October had a previous value of - 9.2 and a forecast value of - 8.5 [2]. Contract Information - On November 11, the main contract 2512 closed at 1746.1, down 1.87%, with a trading volume of 32,200 lots and an open interest of 25,200 lots, a decrease of 1475 lots from the previous day [3]. - The trading limits of contracts 2508 - 2606 are adjusted to 18%. The company's margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 28%. The daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [4]. Strategy Recommendations - Short - term strategy: The main contract retraces while the far - month contracts are strong. Risk - preferring investors are advised to try long positions lightly in the 1550 - 1600 range of the EC2602 contract, focus on the spot trend, avoid holding losing positions, and set stop - losses [4]. - Arbitrage strategy: Against the backdrop of international turmoil, each contract maintains a seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position [4]. - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profits when each contract rises, wait for the callback to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent direction [4].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The market continued to fluctuate weakly on Friday. With the subsequent peak season and the long - term contract signing period in December as positive drivers, it is recommended to take a dip - buying approach overall. The market is expected to mainly follow the trend of the December contract in the short term. Observe the cargo - picking situation during the peak season. Freight rate highs usually occur 4 - 5 weeks before the Spring Festival (mid - January next year). If the peak season is gradually realized, the February contract may have more upside potential. The April contract is for the off - season, and it is recommended to take a short - selling approach considering the expected greater supply pressure and the off - season in April next year [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Contract Prices and Changes**: The EC2512 contract closed at 1812.0, down 1.96% (-603.3); EC2602 at 1592.0, down 0.56% (-383.3); EC2604 at 1164.6, down 1.14% (44.1); EC2606 at 1376.1, down 2.69% (-167.4); EC2608 at 1499.2, up 1.02% (-290.5); EC2610 at 1133.4, down 0.58% (75.3) [2] - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of EC2512 was 17121, and the open interest was 25887 with a decrease of 2525; EC2602 had a volume of 5303, open interest of 22939 with an increase of 314; EC2604 had a volume of 1193, open interest of 14330 with an increase of 122; EC2606 had a volume of 74, open interest of 1452 with a decrease of 3; EC2608 had a volume not fully shown, open interest of 1311 with an increase of 5; EC2610 had a volume of 154, open interest of 1464 with an increase of 32 [2] - **Month - to - Month Spreads**: The spread of EC2512 - 2504 was 647.4, with a daily decrease of 22.8 and a weekly decrease of 20.5; EC2512 - 2602 was 220.0, with a daily decrease of 27.2 and a weekly decrease of 40.8; EC2502 - 2604 was 427.4, with a daily increase of 4.4 and a weekly increase of 20.3 [2] Spot Market - **SCFIS**: Updated weekly on Mondays, as of November 3, 2025, it was 1208.71 points, down 7.92% from the previous period [2] - **SCFI (European Line)**: Updated weekly on a day described as "weekly nine", as of November 7, 2025, it was 1323 dollars/TEU, down 1.56% from the previous period [2] - **CCFI (European Line)**: Updated weekly on a day described as "weekly nine", as of November 7, 2025, it was 1366.85 points, up 3.25% from the previous period [2] - **NCFI**: Updated weekly on a day described as "weekly nine", as of November 7, 2025, it was 911.73 points, down 5.58% from the previous period [2] Recent European Line Quotation - **45th Week**: The average landed price was about 2050 US dollars (equivalent to 1450 points on the futures market) [3] - **46th Week**: The average landed price was 2000 US dollars (equivalent to 1400 points on the futures market). Shipping companies announced a price increase to 2365 - 2950 US dollars for the second half of November, but MSK opened at 2250 US dollars (a 50 - dollar increase from the previous period), and it is expected that other shipping companies' quotes will be gradually lowered this week. There may also be a price increase announcement for December [3] Related News - On November 9, the Qassam Brigades of Hamas stated that armed personnel in the Rafah area under Israeli control would not surrender to Israel. They urged mediators to take responsibility to avoid the breakdown of the cease - fire. Egypt had proposed a plan allowing about 200 armed personnel in Rafah to have safe passage on the condition of handing over weapons and providing the location of underground tunnels, but the Qassam Brigades strongly rejected it [4] - On November 10, the Houthi armed forces warned that if the cease - fire in the Gaza Strip breaks down, they will resume attacks on Israel and ban Israeli ships from sailing in the Red Sea and the Arabian Sea [4] Index Delay - The XSI - C index is delayed by three working days [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On Wednesday, the market strengthened significantly due to rumors of MSK opening bookings and raising prices. The far - month contracts were slightly driven up by the near - month contracts. The December contract has multiple positive drivers such as price increase announcements and long - term contract signings from November to December, but its valuation is not low, and it will follow the spot market in the future. It is recommended to take a long position on dips. [2] - The February 2026 contract has high uncertainty and is expected to mainly follow the December contract's trend in the next month. [2] - The April 2026 contract is a off - season contract, which maintains a narrow - range oscillation under the current peak - season logic. Considering greater supply pressure next year, the off - season in April, and potential resumption of shipping, it is recommended to take a short position on rallies. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Contract Prices and Changes**: The closing prices of EC2512, EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, and EC2610 contracts were 1946.0, 1652.0, 1199.6, 1426.1, 1497.1, and 1142.8 respectively, with daily increases of 1.89%, 3.66%, 0.81%, 1.07%, 0.81%, and 0.69% respectively. [2] - **Month - to - Month Spreads**: The spreads of EC2512 - 2504, EC2512 - 2602, and EC2502 - 2604 were 746.4, 294.0, and 452.4 respectively, with day - on - day changes of 26.5, - 22.2, and 48.7 respectively. [2] Spot Market - **Spot Freight Indexes**: The SCFIS index on November 3, 2025, was 1208.71 points, a decrease of 7.92% from the previous period; the SCFI (European line) on October 31, 2025, was 1344 US dollars/TEU, an increase of 7.87% from the previous period; the CCFI on October 31, 2025, was 1323.81 points, an increase of 2.37% from the previous period; the NCFI on October 31, 2025, was 965.62 points, an increase of 17.43% from the previous period. [2] Recent European Line Quotation Situation - **Early November**: PA's price dropped the most to 1700 - 1900 US dollars, GEMIN dropped to 2100 - 2200 US dollars, and OA dropped to 2250 US dollars, with an average of about 2050 US dollars (equivalent to 1430 points on the futures market). [3] - **Late November**: Shipping companies mostly announced price increases to 2500 - 3100 US dollars, and MSK quoted 2250 US dollars. [3] News - **Price Increase Notices**: On Tuesday, MSC and HPL issued price increase notices for the second half of November, announcing price increases to 3000 and 3100 US dollars/FEU respectively. MSK's opening quotation for the second half of November was 2250 (+50) US dollars/FEU, lower than the previous market rumors/expectations of 2400 - 2500 US dollars; MSK also issued a price increase notice for December, raising the European line price to 3200 US dollars, while MSC's price dropped to 2365 US dollars. [4] - **Related Geopolitical News**: On November 5, the Israeli Defense Minister stated that the Israeli army would unrestrictedly destroy Hamas tunnels and armed personnel in the controlled areas of the Gaza Strip. [5]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a container shipping morning report released on November 5, 2025, by the energy and chemical team of the research center [2] Group 2: Futures Market Analysis Futures Contracts - EC2512 closed at 1909.9 with a 3.14% increase, EC2602 at 1593.7 with a 0.09% increase, EC2604 at 1190.0 with a 0.47% increase, EC2606 at 1411.0 with a 0.75% increase, EC2608 at 1485.0 with a 0.10% increase, and EC2610 at 1135.0 with a 0.38% decrease [2] Month - to - Month Spreads - EC2512 - 2504 spread was 719.9, up 52.6 from the previous day and 123.7 week - on - week; EC2512 - 2602 spread was 316.2, up 56.7 from the previous day and 112.8 week - on - week; EC2502 - 2604 spread was 403.7, down 4.1 from the previous day and up 10.9 week - on - week [2] Group 3: Spot Market Analysis Spot Indices - SCFI (European Line) on November 3, 2025, was 1208.71 points, down 7.92% from the previous period; CCFI on October 31, 2025, was 1323.81, up 2.37% from the previous period; NCFI on October 31, 2025, was 965.62, up 17.43% from the previous period [2] European Line Spot Quotes - In early November, PA's price dropped to $1700 - 1900, GEMIN to $2100 - 2200, and OA to $2250, with an average of about $2050 (equivalent to 1430 points on the disk) [4] Group 4: Market Outlook and Strategies - The 12 - contract has multiple positive drivers but high valuation, and it is recommended to buy on dips [3] - The 02 - contract's valuation is hard to anchor, and it is expected to follow the 12 - contract in the next month [3] - The 04 - contract is a off - season contract, and it is recommended to sell on rallies considering future supply pressure, off - season factors, and potential resumption of shipping [3] Group 5: News and Events - On October 31, Israel attacked Gaza for the third consecutive night, impacting the cease - fire agreement; on November 2, the Houthi armed forces said they would respond strongly to any Israeli aggression [5] - On November 4, the MSK price increase news and the price increase letters from HPL and MSC drove the main contract to strengthen significantly, and the far - month contracts were slightly driven up by the near - month contracts [2][3] - On November 5, MSC and HPL issued price increase letters for the second half of November, announcing price increases to $3000 and $3100 per FEU respectively [4]