February | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | 2025/8/25 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 合组 | | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌 (%) | 基差 | 昨日成交量 | | 昨日持命量 | 持合变动 | | | EC2508 | | 2127.7 | 0.13 | 52.5 | | 120 | 1968 | -92 | | | EC2510 | | 1309.0 | -1.21 | 871.2 | 25350 | | 54255 | -38 | | | EC2512 | | 1661.2 | -3.50 | 519.0 | 8311 | | 13295 | 1086 | | | EC2602 | | 1465.0 | -3.17 | 715.2 | 1372 | | 4455 | 52 | | 期货 | EC2604 | | 1264.5 | -1.94 | 915.7 | 1364 | | 5836 | 120 | | | EC2606 | | 1430.0 | -2.73 ...

| | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | | 2025/8/22 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 合约 | | 昨日收卷价 | 涨跌 (%) 0.09 | 基 | 昨日成交量 | | 昨日持命量 | 持仓变动 -109 | | 期货 | EC2508 | | | | | 156 | | | | | | EC2510 | | 2125.0 1325.0 | -2.21 | 55.2 855.2 | 35008 | | 2060 54293 | 2566 | | | EC2512 | | 1721.4 | -3.07 | 458.8 | 7519 | | 12209 | ਦਿੱਤੀ ਹੈ | | | EC2602 | | 1513.0 | -1.24 | 667.2 | 1211 | | 4403 | 35 | | | EC2604 | | 1289.5 | -1.89 | 890.7 | 1160 | | 5716 | 89 | | | EC2606 | | 1470.1 | -0.67 | 71 ...

售运早报 | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | | 2025/8/22 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 合紅 | | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌 (%) | 基美 | 昨日成交量 | | 昨日持命量 | 持合变动 | | 期货 | EC2508 | | 2125.0 | 0.09 | 55.2 | | 156 | 2060 | -109 | | | EC2510 | | 1325.0 | -2.21 | 855.2 | 35008 | | 54293 | 2566 | | | EC2512 | | 1721.4 | -3.07 | 458.8 | 7519 | | 12209 | નિકીન | | | EC2602 | | 1513.0 | -1.24 | 667.2 | 1211 | | 4403 | 35 | | | EC2604 | | 1289.5 | -1.89 | 890.7 | 1160 | | 5716 | 89 | | | EC2606 | | 1470.1 | -0.67 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core View of the Report - The overall strategy maintains the logic of shorting on rallies. This is because the overall situation in September is loose, the subsequent drivers continue to be weak; currently, the October contract is at a discount of about 450 points to the spot, and there is still expected to be room for decline; the valuation of the far - month contracts is unclear, more affected by drivers, and due to low positions, they are greatly affected by macro and capital behaviors [2][16] 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 EC Futures Contract Price and Month - spread - **Contract Prices**: On August 21, 2025, the closing prices of EC2508, EC2510, EC2512, EC2602, EC2604, and EC2606 were 2123.0, 1355.0, 1775.9, 1532.0, 1314.3, and 1480.0 respectively, with changes of - 0.20%, - 1.12%, 0.05%, - 0.22%, - 0.67%, and - 0.82% [2][16] - **Month - spreads**: The month - spreads of EC2508 - 2510, EC2510 - 2512, and EC2512 - 2602 on the previous day were 768.0, - 420.9, and 243.9 respectively, with daily changes of 11.0, - 16.2, and 4.3 [2][16] 3.2 Shipping Indexes - **SCF (European Line)**: On August 18, 2025, the value was 2180.17, a decrease of 2.47% from the previous period [2][16] - **CCFI**: On August 15, 2025, it was 1790.47 points, a decrease of 0.48% from the previous period [2][16] - **NCFI**: On August 15, 2025, it was 1188.69 points, a decrease of 5.49% from the previous period [2][16] 3.3 Weekly Booking Situation - **Week 34 - 35**: Currently, downstream is booking week 34 - 35 (end of August) positions. The final average price of week 34 was 2850 US dollars (2000 points). The current average quote of week 35 is 2625 US dollars (1840 points), with PA Alliance at 2500 US dollars, MSK at 2300 US dollars, and OA Alliance at 2700 - 2800 US dollars. Fundamentally, MSK is better, OA is average, and PA is worse [2][16] - **Week 35 - 36**: Currently, downstream is booking week 35 - 36 (end of August to early September) positions. The average price of week 35 is 2575 US dollars (1770 points), and that of week 36 is 2400 US dollars (1630 points) [3][17] 3.4 Shipping Capacity - The weekly average shipping capacities in August, September (tentatively), and October 2025 are 328,000, 312,000, and 315,000 TEU respectively. After planning all TBN sailings to be cancelled, they are 328,000, 297,000, and 283,000 TEU [2][16]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Currently, downstream customers are booking shipping space for the second half of August (week 34 - 35). The average price for week 34 is $2,850 (2,000 points), and the current average quote for week 35 is $2,575 (1,770 points). Among them, the PA Alliance offers $2,500, MSK offers $2,300, and the OA Alliance offers $2,700 - $2,800. From a fundamental perspective, in week 33, MSK had better cargo collection, OA was average, and PA was poor. In week 34, cargo collection significantly declined, and some shipping companies faced pressure to accept cargo. This week, the overall shipping capacity for September has been reduced due to an additional suspension of sailings by the PA Alliance in week 37. The average weekly shipping capacities in August, September (tentatively), and October (tentatively) 2025 are 328,000, 312,000, and 315,000 TEU respectively. After considering all TBN as suspended sailings, the capacities are 328,000, 297,000, and 283,000 TEU. In terms of strategy, the overall logic of shorting on rallies remains unchanged. This is mainly because the overall situation in September is loose, and the subsequent driving forces are weak. Currently, the October contract is at a discount of about 450 points to the spot price, and it is expected that there is still room for further decline. The valuation of the far - month contracts is unclear and is more affected by driving forces. However, due to low positions, they are greatly affected by macro and capital behaviors [2][3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Contract Information - For the EC2508 contract, the previous closing price was 2,088.2, with a change of 0.21%, a basis of 147.3, a previous trading volume of 250, a previous open interest of 2,452, and an open interest change of - 54. For other contracts (EC2510, EC2512, etc.), detailed price, change, basis, trading volume, open interest, and open interest change data are also provided [2]. - Regarding the month - to - month spreads, for example, the EC2508 - 2510 spread was 715.1, with comparisons to the previous one, two, and three days and percentage changes also given [2]. Spot Index Information - The SCHIS index, updated weekly on Mondays, was 2,235.48 on August 11, 2025, with a change of - 2.71% compared to the previous period. The SCFI index, updated weekly on Fridays, was $1,820/TEU on August 15, 2025, with a change of - 7.19% compared to the previous period. The CCFI index, updated weekly on Fridays, was 1,790.47 on August 15, 2025, with a change of - 0.48% compared to the previous period. The NCFI index was 1,188.69 on August 15, 2025, with a change of - 5.49% compared to the previous period [2]. Recent European Line Quotation Information - Currently, downstream customers are booking shipping space for the second half of August (week 34 - 35). The average price for week 34 is $2,850 (2,000 points), and the current average quote for week 35 is $2,575 (1,770 points). On Monday, EMC's price dropped by $200 to $2,760, MSC's price dropped by $250 to $2,590, and MSK's price rose from $2,300 to $2,490 [3]. Related News - On August 19, Middle - East media reported that Hamas agreed to a 60 - day cease - fire and release half of the detainees. Israeli media reported that Israel received Hamas' latest cease - fire proposal. Note that the XSI - C index is released with a three - day delay [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall strategy maintains the logic of shorting on rallies. The subsequent drivers continue to be weak. The current discount of the October contract to the spot is around 450 points, and there is still expected to be room for decline. The valuation of the far - month contracts is unclear, more affected by drivers, and due to low positions, they are greatly influenced by macro and capital behaviors [2][16] Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs Futures Contracts - **Contract Prices and Changes**: EC2508 closed at 2083.8 with 0.00% change, EC2510 at 1373.6 with 1.04% change, EC2512 at 1763.0 with 2.30% change, EC2602 at 1530.1 with 0.57% change, EC2604 at 1332.0 with - 0.22% change, and EC2606 at 1487.5 with - 0.50% change [2][16] - **Trading Volumes and Open Interests**: Trading volumes for EC2508, EC2510, EC2512, EC2602, EC2604, and EC2606 were 82, 31099, 6018, 1011, 1068, and 93 respectively. Open interests were 2506, 54859, 11324, 4438, 5549, and 822 respectively, with changes of - 50, - 1839, 193, 14, 90, and - 13 [2][16] - **Month - to - Month Spreads**: EC2508 - 2510 spread was 710.2 with a daily change of - 14.2 and a weekly change of 39.0; EC2510 - 2512 spread was - 389.4 with a daily change of - 25.6 and a weekly change of - 48.2; EC2512 - 2602 spread was 232.9 with a daily change of 31.0 and a weekly change of 0.0 [2][16] Indexes - **Totenit**: Updated on 2025/8/11, the current value is 2235.48 points, with a monthly change of - 2.71% and a quarterly change of - 0.31% [2][16] - **SCF (European Line)**: Updated on 2025/8/15, the current value is 1820 dollars/TEU, with a monthly change of - 7.19% and a quarterly change of - 4.39% [2][16] - **CCFI**: Updated weekly on 2025/8/15, the current value is 1790.47 points, with a monthly change of - 0.48% and a quarterly change of 0.53% [2][16] - **NCFI**: Updated every Friday on 2025/8/15, the current value is 1188.69 points, with a monthly change of - 5.49% [2][16] Recent European Line Quotes - Downstream is currently booking space for the second half of August (week 34 - 35). The average price for week 34 is 2850 US dollars (2000 points), and the current average quote for week 35 is 2625 US dollars (1840 points). Among them, the PA alliance quotes 2500 US dollars, MSK quotes 2300 US dollars, and the OA alliance quotes 2700 - 2800 US dollars [3][17] Related News - On 8/13, the leader of the German Left Party called for a complete halt to arms supplies to Israel. On 8/17, Israel began transporting supplies to Gaza in preparation for military operations, and the Israeli Prime Minister's Office stated that the unconditional release of all detainees is a prerequisite for a cease - fire. On 8/16, Trump said he would temporarily not impose tariffs on China for buying Russian oil [4][18]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The current major contradiction in the EC market is the decline rate during the off - season, affected by uncertainties in geopolitics and tariffs and the repeated domestic macro - sentiment [2][17] - In terms of fundamentals, in Week 33, the collection situation of the MSK improved, OA was average, and PA was poor; in Week 34, the collection significantly declined [2][17] - EMC canceled its independent ship in Week 35, and OA added a sailing suspension in Week 39. The weekly average capacities in August, September, and October 2025 (tentatively) are still high, with a slight decline [2][17] - Currently, the October contract is at a large discount to the spot. The decline of shipping companies in the past two weeks is in line with market expectations. The decline of the December contract did not drive the market down further. Due to the high liquidity and the support from continuous position - shifting, but the overall future drive is downward, and there is still room for valuation adjustment. It is recommended to hold the short position of the October contract and maintain the logic of shorting on rallies [2][17] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Contract Information - EC2508: Yesterday's closing price was 2083.9, with a change of 0.04%, trading volume of 92, open interest of 2556, and a change in open interest of - 73 [2][17] - EC2510: Closing price of 1359.5, change of 1.98%, trading volume of 32077, open interest of 56698, and a change in open interest of - 4042 [2][17] - EC2512: Closing price of 1723.3, change of 1.36%, trading volume of 6322, open interest of 11131, and a change in open interest of - 334 [2][17] - EC2602: Closing price of 1521.4, change of 2.24%, trading volume of 1393, open interest of 4424, and a change in open interest of - 35 [2][17] - EC2604: Closing price of 1335.0, change of 0.48%, trading volume of 1327, open interest of 5459, and a change in open interest of - 92 [2][17] - EC2606: Closing price of 1495.0, change of 1.49%, trading volume of 107, open interest of 832, and a change in open interest of 7 [2][17] Month - to - Month Spread - EC2508 - 2510: The spread was 724.4, with a day - on - day change of - 25.5 [2][17] - EC2510 - 2512: The spread was - 363.8, with a day - on - day change of 3.2 [2][17] - EC2512 - 2602: The spread was 201.9, with a day - on - day change of - 10.2 [2][17] Spot Index Information - SCHIS: Updated weekly on Mondays. On August 11, 2025, it was 2235.48 points, with a decline of 2.71% from the previous period and a decline of 0.81% in the previous period [2][17] - SCH (European line): Updated weekly on Fridays. On August 8, 2025, it was 1961 dollars/TEU, with a decline of 4.39% from the previous period and a decline of 1.87% in the previous period [2][17] - CCFI: Updated weekly on Fridays. On August 8, 2025, it was 1799.05 points, with a change of 0 - 3% from the previous period and an increase of 0.13% in the previous period [2][17] - NCFI: On August 8, 2025, it was 1257.71 points, with a decline of 8.57% from the previous period and a decline of 3.53% in the previous period [2][17] Recent European Line Quotations - Week 34: Shipping companies' prices dropped by 200 - 300 dollars, with an average of 2850 dollars (2000 points). PA Alliance was 2700 dollars, MSK was 2600 dollars, and OA Alliance was 2900 - 3000 dollars [3][18] - Week 35: The current average shipping company quotation is 2630 dollars (1800 points). MSK opened at 2200 dollars. HPL dropped 400 dollars to 2435 dollars, EMC dropped 200 dollars to 2934 dollars. On Thursday, HMM dropped 200 dollars to 2500 dollars, OOCL dropped 300 dollars to 2800 dollars, and ONE dropped 200 dollars to 2508 dollars [3][18] Related News - On August 14, Hamas proposed a cease - fire request, promising to evacuate and ensure the safety of the detained personnel [3][18] - On August 14, Israeli Deputy Foreign Minister Haskell said that there must be a non - Israeli, peaceful, and non - armed government in Gaza after the war [3][18] Index Release Delay - The release of the XSI - C index was delayed by three working days [4][19]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The current main contradictions in the EC market are the decline slope during the off - season, uncertainties in geopolitics and tariffs, and the repeated domestic macro - sentiment. It is recommended to continue holding short positions on the October contract and maintain the logic of shorting on rallies [2] Group 3: Summary Based on Relevant Contents Futures Contract Information - For the EC2508 contract, the previous closing price was 2083.9, with a change of 0.04%, a basis of 151.6, a previous trading volume of 92, and a previous open interest of 2556 with a change of - 73. Other contracts like EC2510, EC2512, etc. also have their respective price, change, basis, trading volume, and open interest data [2] - The month - to - month spreads such as EC2508 - 2510, EC2510 - 2512, etc. have their previous - day, two - day - ago, and day - on - day change data [2] Index Information - The SCHIS SCFI (European line) was updated on August 11, 2025, at 2235.48 points, down 2.71% from the previous period and 4.39% from two periods ago. The CCFI was updated on August 8, 2025, at 1799.05 points, up 0.53% from the previous period. The NCFI was updated on August 8, 2025, at 1257.71 points, down 8.7% from the previous period [2] Shipping Company Quotation Information - In week 34, shipping companies' prices dropped by 200 - 300 US dollars, with an average of 2850 US dollars (2000 points). In week 35, the average shipping company quote was 2630 US dollars (1800 points) [3] - On Monday, MSK opened at 2200 US dollars; HPL dropped 400 to 2435 US dollars. On Wednesday, EMC dropped 200 to 2934 US dollars [9] News Information - On August 14, Hamas proposed a cease - fire request to Egypt, promising to evacuate and ensure the safety of the detained personnel. Israeli Deputy Foreign Minister Haskell said that after the war, Gaza must have a non - Israeli, peaceful and non - armed government [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current main contradictions in the EC market are the decline slope during the off - season, uncertainties in geopolitics and tariffs, and the repeated domestic macro - sentiment [1] - In terms of fundamentals, in the second week of August (week33), MSK performed well, OA was average, and PA was poor; cargo volume in week34 significantly declined. EMC cancelled its independent ship in week35 this week, and OA added a sailing suspension in week39. The capacity reduction situation was not ideal, with a slight decline but still at a high level. The average weekly capacities in August, September (tentative), and October (tentative) 2025 are 327,000, 321,000, and 319,000 TEU respectively, and after including all TRN as sailing suspensions, they are 327,000, 300,000, and 287,000 TEU [1] - From the perspective of the futures market, the current October contract has a large discount to the spot price. The decline of shipping companies in the past two weeks basically met market expectations and did not drive the futures price further down. The December contract is a peak - season contract with certain flexibility, and continuous position - shifting and contract - changing support it. However, the overall future trend is downward, and there is still some room for valuation adjustment. It is recommended to continue holding short positions in the October contract and maintain the logic of shorting on rallies [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Contract Information - For EC2508, the closing price is 2083.0, with a change of 0.05%, a basis of 152.5, a trading volume of 329, an open interest of 2629, and a change in open interest of - 227 [1] - For EC2510, the closing price is 1333.1, with a change of - 5.96%, a basis of 902.4, a trading volume of 66391, an open interest of 60740, and a change in open interest of 4786 [1] - For EC2512, the closing price is 1700.1, with a change of - 2.41%, a basis of 535.4, a trading volume of 8332, an open interest of 11515, and a change in open interest of 103 [1] - For EC2602, the closing price is 1488.0, with a change of - 2.62%, a basis of 747.5, a trading volume of 1870, an open interest of 4459, and a change in open interest of 270 [1] - For EC2604, the closing price is 1328.6, with a change of - 1.59%, a basis of 906.9, a trading volume of 1257, an open interest of 5551, and a change in open interest of 125 [1] - For EC2606, the closing price is 1473.0, with a change of - 0.61%, a basis of 762.5, a trading volume of 126, an open interest of 828, and a change in open interest of 61 [1] Month - to - Month Spread Information - The spread of EC2508 - 2510 is 749.9, with a day - on - day change of 85.5 and a week - on - week change of 97.6 [1] - The spread of EC2510 - 2512 is - 367.0, with a day - on - day change of - 42.6 and a week - on - week change of - 24.2 [1] - The spread of EC2512 - 2602 is 212.1, with a day - on - day change of - 1.9 and a week - on - week change of - 4.5 [1] Shipping Index Information - The SCFI (European Line) index on August 11, 2025, is 2235.48 points, with a month - on - month change of - 2.71% and a year - on - year change of - 4.39% [1] - The European Line freight rate on August 8, 2025, is 1961 US dollars/TEU, with a month - on - month change of - 1.87% [1] - The CCFI index on August 8, 2025, is 1799.05 points, with a month - on - month change of 0.53% and a year - on - year change of 0.13% [1] - The NCFI index on August 8, 2025, is 1257.71 points, with a month - on - month change of - 8.37% and a year - on - year change of - 3.3% [1] Recent European Line Quotation Information - In week34, shipping companies' prices decreased by 200 - 300 US dollars, with an average of 2850 US dollars (2000 points). Among them, the PA Alliance is 2700 US dollars, MSK is 2600 US dollars, and the OA Alliance is 2900 - 3000 US dollars [2] - In week35, the average shipping company's quotation is 2700 US dollars (1850 points). On Monday, MSK opened bookings at 2200 US dollars; HPL reduced the price by 400 to 2435 US dollars; on Wednesday, EMC reduced the price by 200 to 2934 US dollars [2] Related News - On August 12, the Israeli military stated that its operation in Gaza had entered a "new stage" [3] - On August 13, China emphasized maintaining the safety of the Red Sea shipping route and promoting the political settlement of the Yemen issue [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoint The current main contradictions in the EC market are the decline slope during the off - season, uncertainties in geopolitics and tariffs, and the反复 domestic macro - sentiment. The overall driving force is downward, and the valuation still has room. It is recommended to continue holding short positions in the 10 contract and maintain the logic of shorting on rallies[2][18]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Futures Contract Information - **Futures Contract Prices and Changes**: For EC2508, the closing price was 2083.0 with a 0.05% increase; EC2510 closed at 1333.1 with a - 5.96% decrease; EC2512 at 1700.1 with a - 2.41% decrease; EC2602 at 1488.0 with a - 2.62% decrease; EC2604 at 1328.6 with a - 1.59% decrease; EC2606 at 1473.0 with a - 0.61% decrease[2][18]. - **Futures Contract Volumes and Open Interest**: The trading volume of EC2510 was 66391, and its open interest was 60740 with an increase of 4786. Other contracts also had corresponding volume and open - interest data and changes[2][18]. - **Futures Contract Month - to - Month Spreads**: For example, the spread of EC2508 - 2510 was 749.9, with a daily increase of 85.5 and a weekly increase of 97.6. The spread of EC2510 - 2512 was - 367.0, with a daily decrease of 42.6 and a weekly decrease of 24.2[2][18]. Index Information - **SCFI Index**: As of August 11, 2025, the SCFI index was 2235.48 points, a - 2.71% decrease from the previous period and a - 4.39% decrease from two periods ago[2][18]. - **CCFI Index**: On August 8, 2025, the CCFI index was 1799.05 points, a 0.53% increase from the previous period[2][18]. - **NCFI Index**: On August 8, 2025, the NCFI index was 1257.71 points, an - 8.37% decrease from the previous period[2][18]. Fundamental Information - **Receiving Situation**: In week 33 of August, the receiving situation of each alliance was different, with MSK being good, OA being average, and PA being poor. In week 34, the receiving situation significantly weakened[2][18]. - **Shipping Capacity**: EMC cancelled its independent ship in week 35, and OA added a sail - off in week 39. The shipping capacity decreased slightly but remained high. The average weekly shipping capacity in August and September (tentatively) 2025 was 32.7, 32.1, and 28.7 million TEU respectively[2][18]. Recent European Line Quotation Information - **Week 34**: Each shipping company's prices dropped by 200 - 300 US dollars, with an average of 2850 US dollars (2000 points). The PA alliance's price was 2700 US dollars, MSK's was 2600 US dollars, and the OA alliance's was 2900 - 3000 US dollars[3][19]. - **Week 35**: The current average shipping company quotation is 2700 US dollars (1850 points)[3][19]. News - **Israeli Military**: On August 11, the Israeli military said that its operations in the Gaza Strip had entered a "new stage"[3][19]. - **Chinese Side**: On August 12, China emphasized the need to maintain the safety of the Red Sea shipping lanes and promote the political settlement of the Yemeni issue[3][19]. Message - related Information - MSK opened the cabin at 2200 US dollars. HPL reduced the price by 400 to 2435 US dollars. EMC reduced the price by 200 to 2934 US dollars[16][32].