集运早报 | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | 2025/10/10 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | ਵ ਦੇ ਲੋ | | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌 (%) | 基差 | 昨日成交昆 | | 昨日持仓昼 | 持仓变动 | | 期货 | EC2510 | | 1119.9 | 0.84 | -73.4 | 15562 | | 21030 | -57-52 | | | EC2512 | | 1688.0 | -2.53 | -641.5 | 41507 | | 24222 | 3451 | | | EC2602 | | 1406.0 | -14.41 | -359.5 | 12789 | | 8743 | 209 | | | EC2604 | | 1119.9 | -10.7 | -73.4 | 6566 | | 11087 | 1856 | | | EC2606 | | 1277.5 | -1 3.05 | -231.0 | | 990 | 1370 | 471 | | | 月差 | | 前 ...

ગ્રેટ ic = + r | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | | 2025/10/9 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | ਉਨ੍ਹੇ | | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌 (%) | 基差 | 昨日成交虽 | | 昨日持仓虽 | 持合变动 | | 期货 | EC2510 | | 1110.6 | -0.39 | -64.1 | 14129 | | 24782 | -45-2 | | | EC2512 | | 1731.9 | -1.39 | -685.4 | 15454 | | 20771 | 88 | | | EC2602 | | 1642.8 | -1.45 | -596.3 | 4079 | | 8534 | -318 | | | EC2604 | | 1254.2 | 0.10 | -207.7 | | 1251 | 9231 | 121 | | | EC2606 | | 1469.3 | 1.14 | -422.8 | | 77 | 899 | -31 | | | 月差 | | 前一日 ...

集运早报 相关新闻 9/30 哈马斯恐难接受特朗普的加沙和平计划，美国总统特朗普提出的加沙停火新方案实质上是向哈马斯发出的最后通牒：释放人质、解除武 装并投降，否则将在美国明确支持下承受以色列的全面军事打击。从本质看，这份方案毫无新意- -其核心条款恰是哈马斯在整个战争期间 反复拒绝的。过去两年来以色列始终宣称，只要哈马斯归还人质、解除武装并流亡境外，战争次日即可结束。新方案同样未对巴勒斯坦建国 诉求作出任何有实质意义的即时承诺，而这正是国际社会普遍支持的目标。辞任美国务院官员以示抗议加沙政策的昆西研究所研究员Annelle Sheline预测，美国"必将遵哈马斯拒绝"，而这会被利用来"塑造巴勒斯坦人阻碍和平的形象" 注:XSI-C指数延迟三个工作日公布。 EC期货合约价格走势 EC远期曲线 2100 1900 1800 1900 1700 1700 1600 n3 1500 1500 1400 1300 1300 1100 1200 ዓ౧౧ 1100 1000 25 10 2512 2602 现货价格 2 604 2606 2025 /9/5 = 2025 /9/9 2025 /9/15 >2025 /9/ ...

集运早报 | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | | 2025/9/29 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | है रहे | | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌 (%) | 基差 | 昨日成交昼 | | 昨日持会昆 | 持合变动 | | 期货 | EC2510 | | 1139.0 | -2.90 | 115.9 | | 22035 | 32431 | - 3095 | | | EC2512 | | 1777.0 | -0.34 | -522.1 | | 19314 | 21695 | -1300 | | | EC2602 | | 1685.0 | -0.66 | -430.1 | | 6466 | 8768 | નિક | | | EC2604 | | 1268.6 | -1.28 | -13.7 | | 1657 | 9099 | 142 | | | EC2606 | | 1483.5 | 0.08 | -228.6 | | 97 | 938 | -14 | | | 月差 | | 前一日 | 前两日 ...

集运早报 | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | | 2025/9/26 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | ਵਿੱਚ | | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌 (%) | 基差 | 昨日成交昆 | | 昨日持会昆 | 持仓变动 -5414 | | | EC2510 | | 1173.0 | 5.26 | 267.2 | 38888 | | 35526 | | | | EC2512 | | 1783.1 | 5.10 | -342.9 | 23493 | | 22995 | BB9 | | | EC2602 | | 1696.2 | 6.81 | -256.0 | | 5485 | 8709 | 666 | | | EC2604 | | 1285.1 | 1.91 | 155.1 | | 1964 | 8957 | 26 | | 期間 | EC2606 | | 1482.3 | 2.56 | -42.1 | | 212 | 952 | -3 | | | 月差 | | 前一日 | 前内日 | 前三日 | 日环比 ...

20 2025 2019 2024 SCFI（欧线）运价季节性趋势 (剔除20-24年) ગઢ 载安卓版 研究中心能化团队 2025/9/25 总裁 昨日收盘价 (%) 昨日成交量 昨日持仓暨 持仓变动 群 1.31 40940 22606 -568 EC2510 1114.4 325.8 46816 EC2512 4.50 26219 488 1696.5 256.3 EC2602 1588.1 3.42 147.9 4582 8043 442 EC2604 1261.0 2.14 179.2 1655 8931 77 期货 EC2606 1.69 -6 1445.3 105 მરဥ -5.1 图形比 日差 日 HMH 8 日 FC2510-2512 -582.1 -523.4 -560.2 -58.7 -42.7 20.6 29.2 EC2512-2602 108.4 87.8 80.3 指柯 更新频率 必#日期 kill -期 前两期 本期涨跌 下期涨跌 क्वर 1566.46 SCFIS 每周 2025/9/15 1440.24 1773.60 -8.06% -11.68% t 视 -8.84% - ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market opened high and moved low on Monday. In the morning, it might have been trading on the price support in mid - October (CMA price increase) and the suspension of the China - Europe Railway Express (with limited actual impact), and then the decline was likely affected by the falling spot prices. The basis for October was around 60 points, and the spread between October and December was - 560 (-20) [1]. - The price is still falling in early October. There is an expected price increase in late October, but under the suppression of the off - season, the expectation may not be well - realized, and it is more likely to stabilize. In the medium term, there are multiple upward drivers [1]. - The valuation of the December contract is not low. The 02 contract may have a higher cost - performance ratio for long - allocation than the December contract because the Spring Festival in 2026 is relatively late (February 17, 2026), and the settlement price of the 02 contract may be higher. The current valuation of the 04 contract is also high, and as an off - season contract, it is more suitable for short - allocation in the short term, but its low liquidity may make it vulnerable to fluctuations. Therefore, the long - 02 and short - 04 spread trading can be considered. In addition, attention should be paid to the fluctuations caused by pre - holiday position reduction, and the risk of capital position transfer for the October contract with a large number of open positions [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Information - **Futures Contract Prices and Changes**: The closing prices of EC2510, EC2512, EC2602, EC2604, and EC2606 were 1093.7, 1653.9, 1573.6, 1275.0, and 1454.5 respectively, with changes of 4.11%, 1.47%, 0.71%, 2.00%, and 1.07%. The open interest of EC2510, EC2512, EC2602, EC2604, and EC2606 was 46030 (-1685), 21956 (-124), 7398 (122), 8922 (81), and 0 (-33) respectively [1]. - **Monthly Spreads**: The spreads of EC2510 - 2512, EC2512 - 2602 were - 560.2 and 80.3 respectively, with month - on - month changes of 19.3 and 12.8, and week - on - week changes of - 56.1 and - 21.4 [1]. 3.2 Spot Market Information - **Spot Freight Indexes**: The SCHIC SCFI (European line) was 1440.24 dollars/TEU on September 15 and 1052 dollars/TEU on September 19, with decreases of 8.06% and 8.84% compared to the previous period. The CCFI was 1470.97 points on September 19, a decrease of 4.31% from the previous period. The NCFI was 673.61 points on September 19, a decrease of 7.65% from the previous period [1]. 3.3 Recent European Line Quotation Information - **Week 39 (End of September)**: The average quotation was 1600 US dollars (equivalent to 1150 points on the futures market). MSK's quotation was initially 1500 US dollars and then rose to 1570 US dollars. The PA Alliance's quotation was 1550 - 1600 US dollars, and the OA Alliance's was 1600 - 1720 US dollars [2]. - **Weeks 40 - 41 (Early October)**: The average quotation was 1450 US dollars (equivalent to 1030 points on the futures market). MSK's quotation was 1400 US dollars, the PA Alliance's was 1300 - 1500 US dollars (YML's 1300 US dollars was the lowest of the year), and the OA Alliance's was 1400 - 1600 US dollars [2]. - **Monday Changes**: OOCL's price dropped 50 to 1400 US dollars, and MSC's dropped 100 to 1490 US dollars. HPL - SPOT quoted 1435 for early October, 2035 for late October, and 2525 for November (HPL - SPOT's quotations usually fluctuate greatly and have limited reference value) [2]. 3.4 Related News - As of September 22, 2025, 157 out of 193 UN member states had recognized the State of Palestine. Israel stated that its war goal "is not limited to Gaza", and the rift in the Western world's consensus on Israel's policy was gradually widening [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found 2. Core Views of the Report - In the short - term, there is a risk of price - cutting in the spot market, and the futures market is expected to remain weak. The current high position of the October contract has the risk of pre - holiday position reduction or subsequent position transfer fluctuations. In the medium - term, there are multiple upward drivers. From a valuation perspective, the 02 contract has a higher cost - performance ratio for long - position allocation than the 12 contract because the Spring Festival in 2026 is relatively late (February 17, 2026), and the settlement price of the 02 contract may be higher. The 04 contract is currently over - valued and is more suitable for short - position allocation in the short - term as it is a off - season contract, but its low liquidity may make it vulnerable to disturbances. Therefore, attention can be paid to the reverse spread of 12 - 02 and the positive spread of 02 - 04 [2][20] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Futures Contract Prices and Changes**: The closing prices of EC2510, EC2512, EC2602, EC2604, and FC2606 on the previous trading day were 1050.5, 1630.0, 1562.5, 1250.0, and 1439.1 respectively, with changes of - 5.01%, - 0.93%, - 0.23%, - 0.41%, and 6600F respectively. The trading volumes were 33110, 11583, 2298, 1293, and 132 respectively, and the open interest changes were 542, 1510, 61, 307, and 52 respectively [2][20] - **Monthly Spread**: The spreads of EC2510 - 2512, EC2512 - 2602 on the previous day were - 579.5 and 67.5 respectively, with daily changes of - 40.1 and - 11.7 respectively, and weekly changes of - 86.4 and - 71.8 respectively [2][20] Spot Market - **Spot Price Index**: The SCFIS SCFI index (updated every Monday) on September 15, 2025 was 0 points, a decrease of 100.00% from the previous period; the SCFIS SCFI (in US dollars/TEU, updated every Friday) on September 19, 2025 was 1052 US dollars, a decrease of 8.84% from the previous period. The CCFI index on September 19, 2025 was 1470.97 points, a decrease of 4.31% from the previous period. The NCFI index on September 19, 2025 was 673.61 points, a decrease of 7.65% from the previous period [2][20] - **Spot Booking and Quotation**: Currently, downstream customers are booking shipping space for the first ten days of October (week 39 - 41). The average quotation for week 39 is 1640 US dollars (equivalent to 1150 points on the futures market). For weeks 40 - 41, the shipping space is released together (because most of the cargo volume in week 41 has been diverted during the holiday). The average quotation is 1500 US dollars (equivalent to 1050 points on the futures market). Among them, MSK quotes 1450 US dollars, PA (excluding YML) quotes between 1400 - 1600 US dollars, YML quotes 1300 US dollars (the lowest price of the year), and OA quotes between 1500 - 1600 US dollars [2][20] Shipping Capacity - **Shipping Capacity Adjustment**: This week, the shipping capacities in October and November have been adjusted downwards. The main changes are that OA has added one more sailing suspension in the schedule of week 41, and PA & MSC have added 2 and 1 more sailing suspensions in weeks 46 and 47 respectively. The average weekly shipping capacities in September, October, and November are 290,000, 271,400, and 313,900 TEU respectively. After classifying all TBN as sailing suspensions, they are 290,000, 271,400, and 293,400 TEU respectively [2][20]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, there is a risk of price - slashing in the spot market, and the futures market is expected to remain weak. High current positions pose risks of pre - holiday position reduction or subsequent position transfer [1]. - In the medium - term, there are multiple upward drivers. From a valuation perspective, the 02 contract has a higher cost - effectiveness for long - positions compared to the 12 contract because the Spring Festival in 2026 is relatively late (February 17, 2026), and the settlement price of the 02 contract may be higher. The 04 contract is currently over - valued and is more suitable for short - positions in the short - term, but its low liquidity may make it vulnerable to disturbances. Therefore, attention can be paid to the 12 - 02 reverse spread and the 02 - 04 positive spread [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Content Futures Contract Information - **Futures Prices and Changes**: The closing prices and price changes of multiple EC and FC futures contracts are presented. For example, the EC2510 contract closed at 1050.5 with a 5.01% increase, while the FC2512 contract closed at 1630.0 with a 0.93% decrease [1]. - **Month - to - Month Spreads**: The spreads between different contract months are provided, such as the EC2510 - 2512 spread being - 579.5, showing a - 40.1 change compared to the previous day [1]. Index Information - **Shipping Indexes**: Various shipping indexes are updated weekly or monthly. For instance, the SCHIS index was 0 on September 15, 2025, down 100.00% from the previous period; the SCFI index was 1052 dollars/TEU on September 19, 2025, down 8.84% from the previous period [1]. Spot Market Information - **Downstream Booking**: Currently, downstream customers are booking shipping space for the period from the end of September to the beginning of October (week 39 - 41). The average quote for week 39 is 1640 dollars (equivalent to 1150 points on the futures market), and for weeks 40 - 41, it is 1500 dollars (equivalent to 1050 points on the futures market) [1]. - **Shipping Capacity**: The weekly average shipping capacities in September, October, and November are 290,000, 271,400, and 313,900 TEU respectively. After considering all TBN as suspended sailings, they are 290,000, 271,400, and 293,400 TEU [1]. News and Other Information - **Military Action News**: On September 20, 2025, the Israeli Defense Forces expanded their ground operations in Gaza City, resulting in 34 Palestinian deaths in the past 24 hours [3]. - **Index Delay Note**: The XSI - C index is delayed by three working days for publication [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the document. 2. Core View of the Report - The spot market has a risk of price - cutting, and the futures market is expected to continue its weak trend. The current valuation of the December contract is relatively neutral to high, and it may experience a deeper short - term decline. In the medium term, there are multiple upward drivers. In terms of valuation, the February contract has a higher cost - effectiveness for long positions compared to the December contract, while the April contract has a relatively high valuation and is more suitable for short positions in the off - season, but its low liquidity may make it vulnerable to disturbances [2][17]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Contracts - EC2510: Yesterday's closing price was 1105.9, down 0.34%, with a trading volume of 19585, an open interest of 47173, and a decrease of 2436 in open interest [2][17]. - EC2512: Yesterday's closing price was 1645.3, down 1.60%, with a trading volume of 9304, an open interest of 20570, and an increase of 133 in open interest [2][17]. - EC2602: Yesterday's closing price was 1566.1, down 0.80%, with a trading volume of 1549, an open interest of 7215, and an increase of 110 in open interest [2][17]. - EC2604: Yesterday's closing price was 1255.2, down 2.32%, with a trading volume of 1289, an open interest of 8534, and an increase of 200 in open interest [2][17]. - FC2606: Yesterday's closing price was 1453.5, down 1.03%, with a trading volume of 68, an open interest of 936, and an increase of 12 in open interest [2][17]. Month - to - Month Spreads - EC2510 - 2512: The previous day's spread was - 539.4, with a daily increase of 22.9 and a weekly decrease of 86.8 [2][17]. - FC2512 - 2602: The previous day's spread was 79.2, with a daily decrease of 14.0 and a weekly decrease of 30.2 [2][17]. Spot Market Indicators - SCHIS: On September 15, 2025, it was 0 points, down 100.00% from the previous period and down 11.68% from the period before the previous one [2][17]. - SCEI: On September 12, 2025, it was 1154 dollars/TEU, down 12.24% from the previous period and down 11.21% from the period before the previous one [2][17]. - CCFI: On September 12, 2025, it was 1537.28 points, down 6.19% from the previous period and down 2.79% from the period before the previous one [2][17]. - NCFI: On September 12, 2025, it was 729.42 points, down 14.78% from the previous period and down 7.92% from the period before the previous one [2][17]. Recent European Line Quotations - Week 39: The average quote was 1600 dollars (equivalent to 1150 points on the futures market). MSK's quote was initially 1500 dollars and then rose to 1570 dollars, PA Alliance's quote was between 1550 - 1600 dollars, and OA Alliance's quote was between 1600 - 1720 dollars [2][17]. - Week 40: The average quote was 1525 dollars (equivalent to 1060 points on the futures market). MSK opened at 1400 dollars, OOCL reduced its price to between 1500 - 1550 dollars, and YML dropped to 1400 dollars [2][17]. - Week 41: MSK kept the price at 1400 dollars. On Thursday, YML reduced the freight rates for Week 39 - 41 to 1300 dollars, the lowest of the year, equivalent to about 900 points on the futures market. CMA reduced the price by 100 to 1600 dollars, and EMC's Week 40 price was 1500 dollars [2][17].