船舶更新周期

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中远海运国际(00517):主业受益船舶更新周期,高派息率构筑护城河
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2025-07-10 08:23
Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [2][7]. Core Views - The company benefits from the shipbuilding cycle and maintains a high dividend payout ratio, which creates a competitive moat [6][7]. - The core business is well-positioned within the shipping industry, with significant contributions from the paint business and stable financial returns from cash reserves [6][7]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for 2023 to 2027 are as follows: 3,342 million HKD in 2023, 3,627 million HKD in 2024, 3,333 million HKD in 2025, 3,461 million HKD in 2026, and 3,632 million HKD in 2027, with growth rates of -16%, 9%, -8%, 4%, and 5% respectively [5]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 594 million HKD in 2023, 709 million HKD in 2024, 741 million HKD in 2025, 762 million HKD in 2026, and 802 million HKD in 2027, with growth rates of 71%, 19%, 4%, 3%, and 5% respectively [5]. - Earnings per share are expected to increase from 0.40 HKD in 2023 to 0.55 HKD in 2027 [5]. Business Overview - The company is part of the COSCO Shipping Group and operates across the shipping service industry, including paint production, ship trading agency, insurance consulting, and supply of ship equipment and parts [6][19]. - The paint business is expected to see revenue and cost improvements, contributing positively to overall performance [6][31]. - The insurance and agency businesses are stable revenue sources, benefiting from the shipbuilding renewal cycle [6][42]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is proactively entering the green methanol market, aligning with global shipping decarbonization trends [6][67]. - A joint venture for green methanol production is expected to commence operations in 2026, with an annual capacity of 200,000 tons [6][67]. Dividend Policy - The company has maintained a high dividend payout ratio, with a projected dividend yield of approximately 9% in 2025 [6][7].