Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Department of Commerce plans to revoke the blanket exemption for major semiconductor manufacturers like TSMC, Samsung, and SK Hynix, which allows them to use U.S. technology in their factories in mainland China without individual license applications, increasing operational burdens for these companies [1][2]. Group 1: Impact on Semiconductor Manufacturers - The tightening of chip equipment licensing by the U.S. primarily targets China's high-tech industry but adversely affects the operations of global semiconductor manufacturers in China [2]. - China is the largest semiconductor equipment market, accounting for 38% of the global market share in 2024, with U.S. companies like Applied Materials and Lam Research relying on China for 30% to 40% of their revenue [2]. - Samsung's NAND flash factory in Xi'an contributes 30% to 40% of its total NAND production, while SK Hynix's investment in Chinese semiconductor equipment is projected to increase tenfold in 2024, with its Wuxi DRAM factory generating approximately $9 billion in sales, a 64.3% increase [2]. Group 2: Comparison with Rare Earths - The U.S. attempts to equate chip manufacturing equipment with China's rare earth materials management, which is fundamentally flawed as chip equipment is primarily for civilian high-tech industries, unlike rare earths that have military applications [1][2]. - The U.S. strategy to link chip equipment licensing with China's rare earth controls is seen as a mischaracterization of the nature of these resources [1]. Group 3: Global Semiconductor Supply Chain Dynamics - The U.S. does not have absolute control over the semiconductor manufacturing industry, as American chip equipment companies hold only about one-third of the global market share, requiring cooperation from countries like the Netherlands and Japan to enforce restrictions [3]. - The restrictions are catalyzing a "de-Americanization" of the global supply chain, with companies like ASML and Tokyo Electron benefiting from the market gap left by U.S. companies [3]. - Chinese domestic equipment manufacturers are making significant progress, with market share for domestic equipment rising from 16% in 2020 to 28% in 2024, driven by innovations such as the 5nm etching machine validated by TSMC [3]. Group 4: Long-term Implications - The U.S. efforts to completely isolate China from the semiconductor industry are seen as unrealistic, as reversing China's existing capabilities is a significant challenge [4]. - Despite pressures, global semiconductor companies continue to engage with the Chinese market, with firms like NVIDIA launching China-specific GPU versions and maintaining their business scale in China through local R&D [4][5]. - The rapid technological advancements of Chinese equipment manufacturers, achieving over 30% annual iteration rates, are undermining U.S. attempts to disrupt the semiconductor supply chain [5].