国芯网[原:中国半导体论坛] 振兴国产半导体产业！ 不拘中国、 放眼世界 ！ 关注 世界半导体论坛 ↓ ↓ ↓ 11月21日消息，据报道，美国两党议员正推动一项新法案，拟限制获得《芯片法案》补贴的企业在10年内购买中国芯片制造设备，核心目的是通过约束受 助企业的对华设备采购行为，进一步遏制中国半导体产业的发展。 该法案由众议院跨党派议员联合发起：共和党众议员杰伊・奥伯诺尔特（Jay Obernolte）与民主党众议员佐伊・洛夫格伦（Zoe Lofgren）已在众议院提出 相关议案；参议院方面，民主党参议员马克・凯利（Mark Kelly）与共和党参议员玛莎・布莱克本（Marsha Blackburn）计划于12月提出该法案。 法案覆盖一系列芯片制造关键工具：从技术复杂度极高的光刻机，到用于将印制芯片的硅片切割成小块的专用设备，均包含在内。议员提供的背景资料显 示，中国已在芯片产业投入超400亿美元，重点布局制造设备领域，相关设备的全球市场份额已实现大幅增长。条款同时禁止采购其他受关注被禁国家/地 区的同类设备。 法案中设置了部分例外条款，例如若特定芯片制造工具并非由美国或其盟国生产，美国政府可酌情授予采购豁免 ...

美国两党议员周四在众议院提出一项法案，该法案将阻止《芯片法案》拨款的接受者在 10 年内购买 中国芯片制造设备。 该法案针对一系列芯片制造工具，从荷兰制造商 ASML 生产的复杂光刻设备，到切割芯片印刷所用 的硅晶圆的机器。 该法案由众议院共和党议员杰伊·奥伯诺尔特和民主党议员佐伊·洛夫格伦共同提出。在参议院，民主 党议员马克·凯利和共和党议员玛莎·布莱克本计划于12月提出该法案。 公众号记得加星标⭐️，第一时间看推送不会错过。 来 源 ： 内容来自 路透社 。 《芯片法案》（CHIPS Act）于 2022 年在拜登政府时期通过，旨在促进美国芯片制造业的发展，并 拨款 390 亿美元用于刺激新工厂的建设和现有设施的扩建。 英特尔、台湾台积电和韩国三星电子等芯片制造商都根据该法律获得了拨款，尽管美国后来将英特尔 的拨款转换成了股权。 据立法者提供的背景资料显示，中国已在芯片产业投资超过400亿美元，重点是制造设备，此类设备 的市场份额已大幅增长。 美国芯片设备制造商越来越担心，对华出口限制会降低其设备销量，并损害其研发投入能力。利用 《芯片技术创新法案》（CHIPS Act）的拨款购买中国设备，更使问题雪上加 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company anticipates a decline in chip manufacturing equipment spending in China by 2026 due to tightened U.S. export controls, although overall revenue is expected to grow in the second half of the year [1][4]. Group 1: Financial Forecasts - The company predicts a revenue decrease of $600 million for the fiscal year 2026 due to expanded export controls complicating the delivery of certain products and services to Chinese customers [4]. - For the current fiscal quarter, the company forecasts revenue of $6.85 billion, with a fluctuation range of $500 million, while analysts expect an average revenue of $6.76 billion [4]. - The company expects earnings per share (EPS) of $2.18, with a fluctuation of $0.20, which is an increase from the previous expectation of $2.13 [4]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The company's sales in China have decreased from nearly 40% of total revenue to around 20% in recent years [5]. - Non-U.S. equipment companies are not subject to the same restrictions, allowing restricted customers to purchase products from these competitors, even if they prefer to buy from the company [6]. - The company has indicated that the new regulations will make it more difficult to export certain products and provide specific parts and services to some Chinese customers without a license [6]. Group 3: Industry Trends - Despite the anticipated suppression of demand due to U.S. export controls, strong memory production related to the surge in artificial intelligence (AI) investment is expected to partially offset this impact [2]. - The company's CFO noted that customer feedback suggests spending on wafer fabrication equipment may accelerate starting in the second half of 2026 [4].

Core Insights - Diodes (DIOD) reported quarterly earnings of $0.37 per share, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.38 per share, and down from $0.43 per share a year ago, representing an earnings surprise of -2.63% [1] - The company posted revenues of $392.17 million for the quarter ended September 2025, slightly missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 0.08%, but up from $350.08 million year-over-year [2] - Diodes shares have underperformed the market, losing about 15.1% since the beginning of the year compared to the S&P 500's gain of 15.6% [3] Earnings Outlook - The current consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is $0.41 on revenues of $377.1 million, and for the current fiscal year, it is $1.31 on revenues of $1.47 billion [7] - The estimate revisions trend for Diodes was mixed ahead of the earnings release, resulting in a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold) for the stock, indicating expected performance in line with the market [6] Industry Context - The Electronics - Semiconductors industry is currently in the top 34% of over 250 Zacks industries, suggesting a favorable outlook as the top 50% of Zacks-ranked industries outperform the bottom 50% by more than 2 to 1 [8] - Another company in the same industry, Applied Materials (AMAT), is expected to report quarterly earnings of $2.11 per share, reflecting a year-over-year decline of -9.1%, with revenues anticipated to be $6.7 billion, down 4.8% from the previous year [9][10]

Economic Performance - In Jiangsu province, manufacturing sales revenue increased by 4.9% year-on-year in the first three quarters, accounting for 44.1% of total sales revenue, which is a 0.9 percentage point increase from the previous year, providing significant support for economic growth [1] - From January to August, the main policies supporting the manufacturing sector, including tax reductions and refunds, amounted to 182.5 billion yuan [1] Stock Market - On October 24, the stock market experienced a rebound, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a new high for the year, and the ChiNext Index leading the gains [4] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.97 trillion yuan, an increase of 330.3 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [4] - By the market close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.71%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 2.02%, and the ChiNext Index surged by 3.57% [4] Industrial Development - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced the seventh batch of national industrial heritage, with 32 sites including Yixing Qianshu Longyao from Jiangsu being recognized, expanding the province's industrial heritage "national team" [5] - The China Machinery Industry Federation reported that the added value of the machinery industry above designated size grew by 8.7% year-on-year in the first three quarters, outperforming the national industrial growth rate by 2.5 percentage points [6] - The automotive and electrical machinery sectors saw growth rates of 11.2% and 11.1%, respectively [6] Corporate Developments - Morgan Stanley will allow Bitcoin and Ethereum to be used as collateral for cryptocurrency [7] - Wedbush Securities analyst Dan Ives is optimistic about Tesla's future in artificial intelligence, autonomous driving, and robotics, predicting that Tesla's robots will enter households within the next two to three years [7] - NVIDIA announced a partnership with Uber to develop autonomous driving technology, utilizing Uber's extensive real-world driving data to train NVIDIA's Cosmos World foundational model [7]

Core Viewpoint - The United States has imposed penalties on two Chinese firms involved in acquiring U.S. chipmaking equipment for China's leading chipmaker SMIC, adding them to a restricted trade list that includes 32 entities, with 23 of them based in China [1] Group 1 - The U.S. government has added two Chinese firms to its Commerce Department's restricted trade list [1] - A total of 32 entities were added to this list, indicating a broader crackdown on foreign firms involved in sensitive technology acquisitions [1] - Among the 32 entities, 23 are located in China, highlighting the focus on Chinese companies in the U.S. trade policy [1]

Group 1 - The semiconductor sector experienced a significant rise on the 3rd, with Chengdu Huamei hitting the limit up and reaching a new high, while Yuanjie Technology surged over 15%, breaking the 400 yuan mark, also achieving a new high [1] - Reports indicate that the U.S. plans to pass legislation to revoke the procurement licenses for chip manufacturing equipment in mainland China for companies like TSMC, Intel, Samsung, and SK Hynix, increasing the difficulty for these firms in chip manufacturing in China [1] - CITIC Securities believes that the restrictions on TSMC, Samsung, and Hynix in procuring high-end equipment and materials from the U.S. will significantly increase their expansion difficulties, while domestic storage chip suppliers and foundries are expected to gain market share [1] Group 2 - The demand for domestic advanced storage and logic foundries' expansion remains strong, with expectations for rapid recovery in expansion plans for the second half of this year and next year, significantly boosting demand for domestic equipment [1] - Due to the increasing difficulty in procuring overseas equipment, TSMC, Samsung, and Hynix may start seeking domestic alternative suppliers for further expansion, which will continuously benefit domestic semiconductor equipment and materials companies [1]

Current Situation of Shanghai Composite Index - The Shanghai Composite Index has recently experienced a rare strong rally, rising from 3700 points to 3800 points in just five trading days, with only minor fluctuations during this period [2] - On August 22, the index reached a ten-year high, closing at 3825.12 points, with a peak intraday value of 3825.68 points, marking the highest level since June 2015 [2] - The trading volume in both Shanghai and Shenzhen markets has exceeded 2 trillion yuan for eight consecutive trading days, setting a record for the longest duration of trillion-yuan trading [2] Factors Driving the Rise of Shanghai Composite Index - The acceleration of domestic substitution in the context of global technology industry chain restructuring is a core driving force [3] - There is a significant increase in demand for autonomy in sectors like semiconductors and high-end manufacturing, attracting substantial capital to the technology sector [3] - For instance, orders for leading chip manufacturing equipment company North China Huachuang increased by over 60% year-on-year for the first half of 2024, while orders for AI computing infrastructure provider Invec have been scheduled into the fourth quarter due to surging demand [3] Key Factors Influencing Short-term Trends - Historical data indicates that the third quarter is a critical observation phase for economic half-year reports and policy implementation, which can significantly affect market sentiment and capital flow [4] - Two key variables to monitor for short-term trends include the performance differentiation within the technology sector and the stability of foreign capital flows, with August seeing a 30% increase in daily volatility of northbound capital despite maintaining net inflows [4] Potential Risks and Challenges - Despite the index breaking through a key level, potential market risks are notable, including the semiconductor sector's rolling price-to-earnings (PE) ratio reaching 65 times, significantly above historical averages [5] - As the mid-year performance disclosure period approaches, high-valuation stocks may face critical validation regarding whether their growth rates can match their valuations [5] - Additionally, uncertainties surrounding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy have resurfaced, with the probability of a rate cut in September dropping from 55% to 32% in August, potentially increasing volatility in foreign capital flows [5] Investment Recommendations and Strategies - Given the current market environment, a "cautiously optimistic" investment approach is advised [6] - Investors should focus on technology stocks with core technological barriers and high order visibility, particularly in semiconductor equipment and AI computing infrastructure [6] - A "staggered entry" strategy is recommended to gradually build positions during short-term market pullbacks, avoiding the risks of chasing high prices [6] - Investors should closely monitor key events such as August PMI data and the Federal Reserve's September meeting to adjust their portfolio structures in response to market fluctuations [6]

Current Situation of Shanghai Composite Index - The Shanghai Composite Index has recently experienced a rare strong rally, rising from 3700 points to 3800 points in just five trading days, with only minor fluctuations during this period [2] - On August 22, the index reached a ten-year high, closing at 3825.12 points, with a peak intraday value of 3825.68 points, marking the highest level since June 2015 [2] - The trading volume in both Shanghai and Shenzhen markets has exceeded 2 trillion yuan for eight consecutive trading days, setting a record for the longest duration of trillion-yuan trading [2] Factors Driving the Rise of Shanghai Composite Index - The acceleration of domestic substitution in the context of global technology industry chain restructuring is a core driving force [3] - There is a significant increase in demand for autonomy in sectors such as semiconductors and high-end manufacturing, attracting substantial capital into the technology sector [3] - For instance, the leading chip manufacturing equipment company, North Huachuang, reported a more than 60% year-on-year increase in orders for the first half of 2024 [3] Key Factors Influencing Short-term Trends - Historical data indicates that the third quarter is a crucial observation period for economic half-year reports and policy implementation, which can significantly affect market sentiment and capital flow [4] - Two key variables to monitor for short-term trends are the performance differentiation within the technology sector and the stability of foreign capital flows, with August seeing a 30% increase in daily volatility of northbound capital despite net inflows [4] Potential Risks and Challenges - Despite the index breaking through a key level, potential risks remain significant, particularly with the semiconductor sector's rolling price-to-earnings (PE) ratio reaching 65 times, well above historical averages [5] - The uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy has increased, with the probability of a rate cut in September dropping from 55% to 32% in August, which may exacerbate fluctuations in foreign capital flows [5] Investment Recommendations and Strategies - Given the current market environment, a "cautiously optimistic" investment approach is advised [6] - Investors should focus on technology stocks with core technological barriers and high order visibility, particularly in semiconductor equipment and AI infrastructure [6] - A "staggered entry" strategy is recommended to gradually build positions during short-term market pullbacks, while closely monitoring key events such as August PMI data and the Federal Reserve's September meeting [6]

Market Overview - US stock index futures showed mixed performance with Dow futures up by 0.59% and S&P 500 futures up by 0.12%, while Nasdaq futures declined by 0.05% [1] - European indices had varied results, with Germany's DAX up by 0.09%, UK's FTSE 100 down by 0.11%, France's CAC40 up by 0.58%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 up by 0.27% [2][3] - WTI crude oil prices fell by 0.53% to $63.62 per barrel, and Brent crude oil prices decreased by 0.39% to $66.58 per barrel [3][4] Geopolitical Events - A significant meeting is scheduled between US President Trump and Russian President Putin in Alaska, focusing on the Russia-Ukraine conflict and peace prospects, marking their first in-person meeting in four years [5] Federal Reserve Insights - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell is set to speak at the Jackson Hole conference on August 22, with market expectations leaning towards a potential 25 basis point rate cut due to inflation impacts and a slowing job market [6] - Bank of America strategist Hartnett warns that if the Fed signals a dovish stance at Jackson Hole, US stocks may face a "buy the rumor, sell the news" scenario [7] Hedge Fund Activity - Hedge funds have significantly increased their holdings in technology stocks during Q2, with notable purchases in Microsoft and Netflix, amidst a backdrop of market volatility due to trade policies [8] Economic Concerns - Bank of America raises alarms about the potential for the Fed to lower rates in a rising inflation environment, a scenario not seen in nearly two decades [9] Company Performance - Tuniu (TOUR.US) reported a 15.3% year-over-year revenue increase in Q2, with a new $10 million stock buyback plan announced [10] - New Oxygen (SY.US) experienced a 7.0% decline in Q2 revenue, attributed to a decrease in the number of medical service providers subscribing to its platform [11] - Applied Materials (AMAT.US) provided disappointing Q4 guidance, raising concerns about demand suppression due to US-China trade tensions [12] - Viomi Technology (VIOT.US) anticipates over 70% year-over-year revenue growth for the first half of 2025, driven by strong sales of home water purification devices [12]