Market Trends - On November 26, the main peanut futures contract 2601 showed strong performance with an opening price of 7932 CNY, closing at 8186 CNY, reaching a high of 8188 CNY and a low of 7932 CNY, with a trading volume of 220,896 contracts and an open interest of 128,388 contracts, increasing by 21,060 contracts from the previous trading day [1] - The current spot prices for peanuts in various regions are as follows: 7200 CNY in Zhumadian, 7600 CNY in Nanyang, 7750 CNY in Kaifeng, 9700 CNY in Liaoning, and 8900 CNY in Xingcheng [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Farmers and traders in Northeast China are reluctant to sell, leading to limited supply and a significant price increase in peanuts, with prices in Northeast China rising sharply and influencing slight increases in Henan [3] - The overall trading environment is somewhat stagnant, with expectations for peanut prices to remain stable between 8800-9000 CNY per ton due to cautious replenishment by traders [3] - The peanut market is experiencing a "two-tier" situation, with Henan facing quality issues due to adverse weather, causing prices to drop significantly, while Northeast prices remain stable or increase due to better quality [7][8] Inventory and Market Sentiment - As of November 25, the open interest for the PK2601 contract was 107,328 contracts, decreasing by 11,662 contracts from the previous trading day, indicating a tightening inventory situation [9] - The overall peanut inventory is at a reasonable low level, with a notable increase in peanut oil inventory by 14.71% to 54,195 tons as of November 20, reflecting a cautious market sentiment among oil manufacturers [11] Market Outlook - Analysts from Guotai Junan highlight the differentiation between Northeast and Henan regions, with a focus on the limited supply in Henan and the holding pattern of farmers in Northeast China, suggesting that the market may face a period of stability with limited price fluctuations [10] - The demand side remains weak, with oil manufacturers showing caution in procurement, although upcoming holidays may stimulate some demand [8][10]