截至12月22日，山东地区一级大豆油报价8160元／吨，较国庆假期后下跌4.67%，花生油与豆油价差接 近6000元／吨。尽管该价差处于近几年同期中等水平，但今年餐饮消费市场表现疲软，消费降级背景 下，花生油这类高端油脂的需求受到抑制。国庆后豆油价格下跌进一步带动花生油走弱，同时花生食用 端消费疲软，偏低的通货米与油料米价差也从侧面印证了这一趋势。 2025年国内花生种植面积仍呈扩大态势，尽管北方产区收获期受阴雨天气影响，但全国花生总产量依旧 实现增产，尤其是东北地区花生单产高、品质优。不过整体来看，国内优质花生占比下降，低规格花生 供应量偏多。今年花生食用端与压榨需求端消费均显疲软，加工商收购积极性不足，由此形成"好货惜 售价稳、差货供应过剩价跌"的分化格局。 随着河南地区农忙结束，花生上市量逐步增加。12月初以来，油厂花生到货量持续攀升，油料米供应充 足，油厂随之压低收购价格。随着现货价格的松动，花生期货主力合约再度跌破8000元／吨，此后陷入 震荡整理。 需求受到抑制 截至12月19日，山东地区花生理论压榨利润为316元／吨，虽较11月底376元／吨的高点有所回落，但仍 处于近5年同期最高水平。国庆假期 ...

我们的观点：花生价格或将在卖压释放后筑底反弹。 究 所 我们的逻辑：短期考虑到花生供应同比增加，季节性卖压可能在年后兑现，需求端偏弱，花生价格短期仍筑底。 估值来看，花生价格处于近几年来低位水平，待卖压下降，榨利尚可条件下，油厂可能提高收购量，价格有反弹驱 动。 投资展望：2026 年，我们认为花生价格筑底反弹，花生价格波动区间为 7500-9000 元/吨，核心区间为 8000- 8800 元/吨，关注油厂收购，进口到港等驱动，波段操作为主。 风险提示：宏观风险，油厂收购不及预期 2025 年 12 月 15 日 品质分化，筑底回升 ---2026 年花生期货行情展望 尹恺宜 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019456 yinkaiyi@gtht.com 报告导读： 1. 2025 年花生走势回顾 2025 年花生价格整体区间震荡，小幅上涨。2025 年花生期货周期上仍处于筑底阶段，呈现"震荡寻底— 阶段性反弹—分化上涨—震荡企稳"的特点，加权指数在 7690-8468 元/吨波动，振幅较小。与三大油脂相 比，花生价格受国内自身基本面影响较大，价格整体涨幅弱于其他油脂。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 请务 ...

Market Trends - On November 26, the main peanut futures contract 2601 showed strong performance with an opening price of 7932 CNY, closing at 8186 CNY, reaching a high of 8188 CNY and a low of 7932 CNY, with a trading volume of 220,896 contracts and an open interest of 128,388 contracts, increasing by 21,060 contracts from the previous trading day [1] - The current spot prices for peanuts in various regions are as follows: 7200 CNY in Zhumadian, 7600 CNY in Nanyang, 7750 CNY in Kaifeng, 9700 CNY in Liaoning, and 8900 CNY in Xingcheng [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Farmers and traders in Northeast China are reluctant to sell, leading to limited supply and a significant price increase in peanuts, with prices in Northeast China rising sharply and influencing slight increases in Henan [3] - The overall trading environment is somewhat stagnant, with expectations for peanut prices to remain stable between 8800-9000 CNY per ton due to cautious replenishment by traders [3] - The peanut market is experiencing a "two-tier" situation, with Henan facing quality issues due to adverse weather, causing prices to drop significantly, while Northeast prices remain stable or increase due to better quality [7][8] Inventory and Market Sentiment - As of November 25, the open interest for the PK2601 contract was 107,328 contracts, decreasing by 11,662 contracts from the previous trading day, indicating a tightening inventory situation [9] - The overall peanut inventory is at a reasonable low level, with a notable increase in peanut oil inventory by 14.71% to 54,195 tons as of November 20, reflecting a cautious market sentiment among oil manufacturers [11] Market Outlook - Analysts from Guotai Junan highlight the differentiation between Northeast and Henan regions, with a focus on the limited supply in Henan and the holding pattern of farmers in Northeast China, suggesting that the market may face a period of stability with limited price fluctuations [10] - The demand side remains weak, with oil manufacturers showing caution in procurement, although upcoming holidays may stimulate some demand [8][10]

近期东北产区花生因基层农户及小贩惜售导致市场供应量不足，叠加加工商与市场库存普遍偏低，推动 价格持续上行，虽然东北产区整体质量较优为价格提供了一定支撑，但涨幅扩大后成交未有序增加，其 中308品种高价实际成交较少，价格上涨缺乏成交支撑、炒作情绪明显。受东北产区白沙价格上涨带 动，河南及其他产区白沙品种小幅跟涨，使得南北产区价格价差进一步扩大。河南产区上市后价格持续 偏弱，受东北行情影响后价格企稳并小幅回升，但油料米占比偏高，行情难以大幅上涨，整体来看河南 及其他白沙市场未来将维持优质价稳、偏次货以质论价的格局。总的来看，短期花生价格后续大幅上行 和下行调整空间均有限，后期需重点关注河南产区上货量及油厂收购动态。策略：花生期货短期维持震 荡偏强，操作上短线逢回调做多。 瑞达期货：花生价格底部支撑强劲 上周油厂陆续下调花生价格，导致国内油料花生米承压，不过，东北产区农户和持货商惜售心态浓厚， 基层供应量不足导致价格底部支撑强劲，其他地区随东北调整，但区域价差较大，整体成交情况较一 般，市场存在一定的有价无市，短期密切关注产区基层的上货心态与节奏变化。 花生期货主力涨近3%，对于后市行情如何，相关机构该如何评价？ ...

Core Insights - The weather conditions in Northeast China's peanut production areas have been favorable this year, leading to improvements in both yield and quality for the new harvest season [1][3] - The price disparity between high-quality peanuts from Northeast China and average-quality peanuts from Henan is expected to widen, with good quality peanuts likely to see price increases before the New Year [1][6] Production and Yield - Over the past five years, the distribution of peanut planting areas in China has slightly changed, with Henan maintaining its position as the largest producer, accounting for approximately 28%-30% of the national total [1] - The production in Liaoning and Jilin provinces is on the rise due to better soil quality and large-scale planting, with forecasts indicating significant increases in peanut production for 2025 [1] - Liaoning's peanut production is expected to reach approximately 1.1623 million tons in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 15.51%, while Jilin's production is projected at about 1.3224 million tons, up 21.23% [1] Quality and Market Dynamics - The quality of peanuts from Northeast China is generally good this season, with harvesting occurring about 10 days earlier than in previous years, despite some areas in Liaoning experiencing a slight decrease in oil content [3] - The market for peanuts in Henan is facing challenges due to delayed harvesting caused by rainy weather, leading to lower quality and prices [3][5] - As of November 18, the average purchase price for white sand peanuts in Northeast China was approximately 9,100 yuan per ton, an increase of 11.66% from early October, while Henan's price dropped by 10.98% to about 7,300 yuan per ton [3][6] Price Trends and Expectations - The market sentiment is cautious, with farmers in Henan showing reluctance to sell high-quality peanuts at low prices, while those in Northeast China are more willing to sell due to better quality [5][6] - There is an anticipated demand for replenishment in the wholesale market leading up to the New Year, which may limit price declines for high-quality peanuts [6] - Expected purchase prices for mid-to-high quality peanuts are projected to be between 7,000-8,000 yuan per ton in Henan and 8,400-9,600 yuan per ton in Liaoning [6]

Core Insights - The article discusses the current situation of peanut and corn harvesting in Henan province, highlighting the impact of weather conditions on crop quality and market dynamics [1][2][5] Group 1: Harvesting and Market Conditions - Farmers in Henan are actively selling their harvested peanuts and corn due to unfavorable market conditions and weather impacts, with many opting for immediate sales rather than storage [2][3] - The quality of peanuts has been affected by recent weather, with some crops showing signs of mold and sprouting, leading to a decline in market prices [2][5] - The overall planting area for peanuts in Henan has increased by approximately 10% this year, despite adverse weather conditions [5] Group 2: Trade and Supply Chain Dynamics - Peanut processing plants and traders are actively purchasing peanuts from farmers, with a significant increase in the number of trucks delivering peanuts to processing facilities [4][6] - The market for peanut oil and food-grade peanuts is currently favorable for processors, who are looking to stock up on raw materials due to lower prices [4][6] - The supply-demand relationship for peanuts is becoming more relaxed as the harvest concludes, leading to a decrease in prices for both oil-grade and food-grade peanuts [7][8] Group 3: Price Trends and Market Outlook - The purchase prices for peanuts in Henan have dropped significantly, with some grades falling to around 4 yuan per jin, while lower-quality peanuts are being bought for less than 3 yuan per jin [7][8] - The influx of low-priced peanuts from Henan is affecting market activity in Northeast China, where trading volumes are declining and prices are under pressure [9] - There is a cautious outlook for peanut futures, with expectations of further price declines due to reduced demand from the food industry and a lack of interest from traders in entering the market [9]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a peanut daily report dated October 15, 2025, from the Commodity Research Institute's Agricultural Product R & D Report [1][2] Group 2: Data Summary Futures Market - PK604 closed at 8108, up 66 (0.81%), with a trading volume of 445 (-45.60%) and an open interest of 1,314 (10.14%) [2] - PK510 data is unavailable [2] - PK601 closed at 8062, up 52 (0.65%), with a trading volume of 124,355 (-26.10%) and an open interest of 186,194 (14.40%) [2] Spot Market and Basis - Spot prices in Henan Nanyang, Shandong Jining, and Shandong Linyi were 8800, 8400, and 8400 respectively, with no change [2] - Import prices for Sudanese rice were 8600 and Senegalese rice were 7800, with no change [2] - The basis for Henan Nanyang, Shandong Jining, and Shandong Linyi were 738, 338, and 338 respectively [2] Spreads - The PK01 - PK04 spread was -46, down 14 [2] Group 3: Market Analysis Peanut Prices - Peanut prices in Henan and Northeast China were stable. The expected short - term trend for peanut spot is relatively strong [4] - The price of some peanut oil mills' purchases before suspension was 7800 - 7900 yuan/ton, and the theoretical break - even price was 7940 yuan/ton [4] - Peanut oil and soybean oil prices were stable, with domestic first - class ordinary peanut oil at 14500 yuan/ton and small - pressed fragrant peanut oil at 16500 yuan/ton [4] By - products - Rizhao soybean meal was slightly weaker, at 2930 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan/ton from yesterday), and peanut meal was short - term weak due to a high unit protein price difference with soybean meal [7] Group 4: Core View - Supply is still low, and downstream demand is weak. In the short term, peanut prices will be relatively stable. The peanut futures market may experience short - term narrow - range fluctuations. The new - season peanut production is expected to be similar to last year, and the planting cost has decreased. The 01 contract of peanuts will still show a strong - side shock [9] Group 5: Trading Strategies Unilateral Trading - The 01 and 05 peanut contracts are in a low - level shock. Traders can take long positions on pullbacks with a light position [10] Spread Trading - Traders should wait and see for spread trading [11] Options Trading - Sell and hold the pk601 - P - 7600 option [12] Group 6: Related Charts - The report includes six charts showing data such as Shandong peanut spot prices, peanut oil prices, and contract spreads [14][21][24]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term outlook for the peanut futures market is weak [2] 2. Core Viewpoints - In the spot market, peanut prices initially rose but then fell. The national average price of general - purpose peanuts was 4.15 yuan per catty as of September 11, down 0.07 yuan per catty week - on - week. The price increase in some areas was due to factors such as the end of spring peanut sales by farmers in some regions and the impact of rainy weather on new peanut listing. However, the subsequent increase in the supply of new peanuts from Hebei and other places and weak downstream procurement led to price declines [1]. - In the futures market, the peanut futures rose in the week of September 12. The main peanut contract (PK2511) had a high of 7,884 yuan per ton, a low of 7,750 yuan per ton, and a closing price of 7,774 yuan per ton (compared to 7,826 yuan per ton the previous week) [1]. - Looking ahead, in the spot market, the new peanuts in Henan are affected by rainfall, with water and quality issues restricting effective supply. In late September, peanuts from Hebei, Shandong, and other regions will be listed, bringing phased supply pressure. In the futures market, it is expected to be weak in the short - term, with prices likely to face pressure again when Henan's wheat - stubble peanuts and Northeast Baisha peanuts are concentratedly listed at the end of September and early October [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Basis and Spread - The basis of Henan Baisha general - purpose peanuts and Sudan refined peanuts shows different trends over the years. The 11 - 1 spread has weakened [5][6]. - The price of new Baisha peanuts in Henan Zhumadian decreased by about 440 yuan per ton week - on - week, a decline of 5.0%. The prices of new Baisha in Henan Huangludian and new large peanuts in Henan were basically flat week - on - week. The price of old Japanese peanuts in Liaoning was basically flat week - on - week, and the new 308 peanuts in Liaoning were just launched this week without comparable prices [6]. 3.2 Price Data - The arrival volume of 6 oil - type peanut markets was about 0.77 million tons, down 4.36% week - on - week and 34.34% year - on - year. The arrival volume of 14 commercial peanut markets was about 0.4 million tons, up 8.25% week - on - week and down 5.91% year - on - year. The arrival volume of 20 domestic markets was about 1.17 million tons, down 0.38% week - on - week and 26.74% year - on - year [7]. 3.3 Supply - There are data on the arrival volume of different types of peanut markets over the years, including oil - type peanut markets, commercial peanut markets, and domestic markets, which can reflect the supply situation [7][9][13]. 3.4 Demand - The arrival volume of sample oil mills was about 0.52 million tons, up 21.38% week - on - week but down 70.04% year - on - year. The mainstream price of domestic first - grade peanut oil was 14,500 - 15,200 yuan per ton, with stable quotes but some negotiation space in actual transactions. The terminal consumption market was weak. The mainstream price of peanut meal was 3,200 - 3,300 yuan per ton, with stable quotes but negotiable actual transactions. The terminal aquaculture industry's support for raw material procurement was limited, and the overall market transaction was light. The theoretical profit of peanut processing in some domestic oil mills this week was 15.9 yuan per ton, up 100 yuan per ton from last week. The comprehensive startup rate of sample enterprises was 7.22%, the same as last week and down 2.17% from the same period last year. The peanut crushing volume of sample oil mills was about 1.28 million tons, basically the same as last week and down 23.11% year - on - year [14]. 3.5 Inventory - There are data on the peanut inventory and peanut oil inventory of sample oil mills over the years, which can reflect the inventory situation of the peanut industry [18].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Peanut Daily Report, July 14, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Liu Dayong [2] - Industry: Agricultural Products (Peanuts) Group 2: Data Summary Futures Market - PK504: Closed at 7966, no change (0.00% change), volume increased by 350.00% to 27, open interest increased by 4.93% to 149 [3] - PK510: Closed at 8190, up 20 (0.24% change), volume increased by 240.72% to 113,094, open interest decreased by 4.07% to 94,364 [3] - PK601: Closed at 7994, up 24 (0.30% change), volume increased by 195.64% to 3,187, open interest increased by 1.13% to 8,212 [3] Spot Market - Henan Nanyang Peanuts: Quoted at 9200 yuan/ton, no change [3] - Shandong Jining Peanuts: Quoted at 8600 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton [3] - Shandong Linyi Peanuts: Quoted at 8600 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton [3] - Rizhao Peanut Meal: Quoted at 3300 yuan/ton, no change [3] - Rizhao Soybean Meal: Quoted at 2820 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [3][8] - Peanut Oil: Quoted at 15200 yuan/ton, no change [3] - Rizhao First - Grade Soybean Oil: Quoted at 8120 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [3] Import Prices - Sudan Peanuts: Quoted at 8250 yuan/ton, no change [3] Spreads - PK01 - PK04 Spread: 28, up 24 [3] - PK04 - PK10 Spread: - 224, down 20 [3] - PK10 - PK01 Spread: 196, down 4 [3] Group 3: Market Analysis Price Movements - Henan and Northeast peanut prices declined. Jilin Fuyu 308 peanuts were stable at 4.45 yuan/jin, Liaoning Changtu peanuts fell 0.1 yuan/jin to 4.5 yuan/jin, Henan Baisha peanuts fell 0.05 yuan/jin to 4.5 - 4.65 yuan/jin, and Shandong Junan peanuts were stable at 4.1 yuan/jin [5] - Imported Sudan refined peanuts rose 50 yuan/ton to 8300 yuan/ton [5] - Most peanut oil mills stopped purchasing, with mainstream prices at 7650 - 7700 yuan/ton, and the theoretical break - even price at 8220 yuan/ton [5] - Peanut oil and soybean oil prices were stable, with domestic first - grade peanut oil at 15000 yuan/ton and small - pressed fragrant peanut oil at 17000 yuan/ton [5] Outlook - Peanut spot prices are expected to be relatively weak in the short term [5] - The unit protein price difference between peanut meal and soybean meal is high, and peanut meal is expected to be weak in the short term [8] Group 4: Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Observe the high - level fluctuations of PK510 peanuts in the short term [10] - Spread: Conduct reverse arbitrage on the PK510 - PK601 spread when the spread is low [11] - Options: Sell PK510 - C - 8800 [12] Group 5: Related Attachments - Figures include Shandong peanut spot prices, peanut oil mill profit, peanut oil prices, peanut spot - futures basis, PK510 - PK601 spread, and PK504 - PK510 spread [15][20][23]