今年东北花生产区生长期天气相对理想，使得新产季花生单产及质量均有提升。在此背景下，东北产区 花生价格受到基层好货低价惜售的影响，与河南品质一般的花生价差拉大。这一局面的持续预计将造成 元旦之前，新季花生好货价格在成本及市场心态的支撑下仍有阶段走高可能，但次货价格或不理想。 近5年来，中国花生种植分布区域结构略有变动，河南产区凭借长期成本优势继续保持全国产量第一的 位置，约占全国总量的28%-30%。但辽宁、吉林因规模化种植、土质较好等原因，区域结构占比呈上升 态势。尤其是2025年，两省花生单产增加明显。根据卓创资讯对重点产区进行加权平均测算后，预估 2025年辽宁产区新花生产量约116.23万吨，同比增加15.51%；吉林产区新花生产量约132.24万吨，同比 增加21.23%。两省占比从2021年的10%以内增加至14.33%，加上黑龙江及内蒙两地后，整体东北区域在 全国花生产量中的地位持续提升。 进一步看本产季花生品质情况，由于辽宁及吉林在播种、生长及收获阶段，天气相对理想，东北地区仅 在收获阶段个别时间有持续降雨，因生长期顺利，新季花生刨出时间较往年提前10天左右，单产理想， 虽然辽宁局部新花生整体含 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the current situation of peanut and corn harvesting in Henan province, highlighting the impact of weather conditions on crop quality and market dynamics [1][2][5] Group 1: Harvesting and Market Conditions - Farmers in Henan are actively selling their harvested peanuts and corn due to unfavorable market conditions and weather impacts, with many opting for immediate sales rather than storage [2][3] - The quality of peanuts has been affected by recent weather, with some crops showing signs of mold and sprouting, leading to a decline in market prices [2][5] - The overall planting area for peanuts in Henan has increased by approximately 10% this year, despite adverse weather conditions [5] Group 2: Trade and Supply Chain Dynamics - Peanut processing plants and traders are actively purchasing peanuts from farmers, with a significant increase in the number of trucks delivering peanuts to processing facilities [4][6] - The market for peanut oil and food-grade peanuts is currently favorable for processors, who are looking to stock up on raw materials due to lower prices [4][6] - The supply-demand relationship for peanuts is becoming more relaxed as the harvest concludes, leading to a decrease in prices for both oil-grade and food-grade peanuts [7][8] Group 3: Price Trends and Market Outlook - The purchase prices for peanuts in Henan have dropped significantly, with some grades falling to around 4 yuan per jin, while lower-quality peanuts are being bought for less than 3 yuan per jin [7][8] - The influx of low-priced peanuts from Henan is affecting market activity in Northeast China, where trading volumes are declining and prices are under pressure [9] - There is a cautious outlook for peanut futures, with expectations of further price declines due to reduced demand from the food industry and a lack of interest from traders in entering the market [9]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a peanut daily report dated October 15, 2025, from the Commodity Research Institute's Agricultural Product R & D Report [1][2] Group 2: Data Summary Futures Market - PK604 closed at 8108, up 66 (0.81%), with a trading volume of 445 (-45.60%) and an open interest of 1,314 (10.14%) [2] - PK510 data is unavailable [2] - PK601 closed at 8062, up 52 (0.65%), with a trading volume of 124,355 (-26.10%) and an open interest of 186,194 (14.40%) [2] Spot Market and Basis - Spot prices in Henan Nanyang, Shandong Jining, and Shandong Linyi were 8800, 8400, and 8400 respectively, with no change [2] - Import prices for Sudanese rice were 8600 and Senegalese rice were 7800, with no change [2] - The basis for Henan Nanyang, Shandong Jining, and Shandong Linyi were 738, 338, and 338 respectively [2] Spreads - The PK01 - PK04 spread was -46, down 14 [2] Group 3: Market Analysis Peanut Prices - Peanut prices in Henan and Northeast China were stable. The expected short - term trend for peanut spot is relatively strong [4] - The price of some peanut oil mills' purchases before suspension was 7800 - 7900 yuan/ton, and the theoretical break - even price was 7940 yuan/ton [4] - Peanut oil and soybean oil prices were stable, with domestic first - class ordinary peanut oil at 14500 yuan/ton and small - pressed fragrant peanut oil at 16500 yuan/ton [4] By - products - Rizhao soybean meal was slightly weaker, at 2930 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan/ton from yesterday), and peanut meal was short - term weak due to a high unit protein price difference with soybean meal [7] Group 4: Core View - Supply is still low, and downstream demand is weak. In the short term, peanut prices will be relatively stable. The peanut futures market may experience short - term narrow - range fluctuations. The new - season peanut production is expected to be similar to last year, and the planting cost has decreased. The 01 contract of peanuts will still show a strong - side shock [9] Group 5: Trading Strategies Unilateral Trading - The 01 and 05 peanut contracts are in a low - level shock. Traders can take long positions on pullbacks with a light position [10] Spread Trading - Traders should wait and see for spread trading [11] Options Trading - Sell and hold the pk601 - P - 7600 option [12] Group 6: Related Charts - The report includes six charts showing data such as Shandong peanut spot prices, peanut oil prices, and contract spreads [14][21][24]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term outlook for the peanut futures market is weak [2] 2. Core Viewpoints - In the spot market, peanut prices initially rose but then fell. The national average price of general - purpose peanuts was 4.15 yuan per catty as of September 11, down 0.07 yuan per catty week - on - week. The price increase in some areas was due to factors such as the end of spring peanut sales by farmers in some regions and the impact of rainy weather on new peanut listing. However, the subsequent increase in the supply of new peanuts from Hebei and other places and weak downstream procurement led to price declines [1]. - In the futures market, the peanut futures rose in the week of September 12. The main peanut contract (PK2511) had a high of 7,884 yuan per ton, a low of 7,750 yuan per ton, and a closing price of 7,774 yuan per ton (compared to 7,826 yuan per ton the previous week) [1]. - Looking ahead, in the spot market, the new peanuts in Henan are affected by rainfall, with water and quality issues restricting effective supply. In late September, peanuts from Hebei, Shandong, and other regions will be listed, bringing phased supply pressure. In the futures market, it is expected to be weak in the short - term, with prices likely to face pressure again when Henan's wheat - stubble peanuts and Northeast Baisha peanuts are concentratedly listed at the end of September and early October [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Basis and Spread - The basis of Henan Baisha general - purpose peanuts and Sudan refined peanuts shows different trends over the years. The 11 - 1 spread has weakened [5][6]. - The price of new Baisha peanuts in Henan Zhumadian decreased by about 440 yuan per ton week - on - week, a decline of 5.0%. The prices of new Baisha in Henan Huangludian and new large peanuts in Henan were basically flat week - on - week. The price of old Japanese peanuts in Liaoning was basically flat week - on - week, and the new 308 peanuts in Liaoning were just launched this week without comparable prices [6]. 3.2 Price Data - The arrival volume of 6 oil - type peanut markets was about 0.77 million tons, down 4.36% week - on - week and 34.34% year - on - year. The arrival volume of 14 commercial peanut markets was about 0.4 million tons, up 8.25% week - on - week and down 5.91% year - on - year. The arrival volume of 20 domestic markets was about 1.17 million tons, down 0.38% week - on - week and 26.74% year - on - year [7]. 3.3 Supply - There are data on the arrival volume of different types of peanut markets over the years, including oil - type peanut markets, commercial peanut markets, and domestic markets, which can reflect the supply situation [7][9][13]. 3.4 Demand - The arrival volume of sample oil mills was about 0.52 million tons, up 21.38% week - on - week but down 70.04% year - on - year. The mainstream price of domestic first - grade peanut oil was 14,500 - 15,200 yuan per ton, with stable quotes but some negotiation space in actual transactions. The terminal consumption market was weak. The mainstream price of peanut meal was 3,200 - 3,300 yuan per ton, with stable quotes but negotiable actual transactions. The terminal aquaculture industry's support for raw material procurement was limited, and the overall market transaction was light. The theoretical profit of peanut processing in some domestic oil mills this week was 15.9 yuan per ton, up 100 yuan per ton from last week. The comprehensive startup rate of sample enterprises was 7.22%, the same as last week and down 2.17% from the same period last year. The peanut crushing volume of sample oil mills was about 1.28 million tons, basically the same as last week and down 23.11% year - on - year [14]. 3.5 Inventory - There are data on the peanut inventory and peanut oil inventory of sample oil mills over the years, which can reflect the inventory situation of the peanut industry [18].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Peanut Daily Report, July 14, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Liu Dayong [2] - Industry: Agricultural Products (Peanuts) Group 2: Data Summary Futures Market - PK504: Closed at 7966, no change (0.00% change), volume increased by 350.00% to 27, open interest increased by 4.93% to 149 [3] - PK510: Closed at 8190, up 20 (0.24% change), volume increased by 240.72% to 113,094, open interest decreased by 4.07% to 94,364 [3] - PK601: Closed at 7994, up 24 (0.30% change), volume increased by 195.64% to 3,187, open interest increased by 1.13% to 8,212 [3] Spot Market - Henan Nanyang Peanuts: Quoted at 9200 yuan/ton, no change [3] - Shandong Jining Peanuts: Quoted at 8600 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton [3] - Shandong Linyi Peanuts: Quoted at 8600 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton [3] - Rizhao Peanut Meal: Quoted at 3300 yuan/ton, no change [3] - Rizhao Soybean Meal: Quoted at 2820 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [3][8] - Peanut Oil: Quoted at 15200 yuan/ton, no change [3] - Rizhao First - Grade Soybean Oil: Quoted at 8120 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [3] Import Prices - Sudan Peanuts: Quoted at 8250 yuan/ton, no change [3] Spreads - PK01 - PK04 Spread: 28, up 24 [3] - PK04 - PK10 Spread: - 224, down 20 [3] - PK10 - PK01 Spread: 196, down 4 [3] Group 3: Market Analysis Price Movements - Henan and Northeast peanut prices declined. Jilin Fuyu 308 peanuts were stable at 4.45 yuan/jin, Liaoning Changtu peanuts fell 0.1 yuan/jin to 4.5 yuan/jin, Henan Baisha peanuts fell 0.05 yuan/jin to 4.5 - 4.65 yuan/jin, and Shandong Junan peanuts were stable at 4.1 yuan/jin [5] - Imported Sudan refined peanuts rose 50 yuan/ton to 8300 yuan/ton [5] - Most peanut oil mills stopped purchasing, with mainstream prices at 7650 - 7700 yuan/ton, and the theoretical break - even price at 8220 yuan/ton [5] - Peanut oil and soybean oil prices were stable, with domestic first - grade peanut oil at 15000 yuan/ton and small - pressed fragrant peanut oil at 17000 yuan/ton [5] Outlook - Peanut spot prices are expected to be relatively weak in the short term [5] - The unit protein price difference between peanut meal and soybean meal is high, and peanut meal is expected to be weak in the short term [8] Group 4: Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Observe the high - level fluctuations of PK510 peanuts in the short term [10] - Spread: Conduct reverse arbitrage on the PK510 - PK601 spread when the spread is low [11] - Options: Sell PK510 - C - 8800 [12] Group 5: Related Attachments - Figures include Shandong peanut spot prices, peanut oil mill profit, peanut oil prices, peanut spot - futures basis, PK510 - PK601 spread, and PK504 - PK510 spread [15][20][23]