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苯乙烯转向累库,地缘因素影响成本支撑
Tong Hui Qi Huo· 2025-09-26 08:29
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The pure benzene market shows significant short - term de - stocking, but there is still a high pressure of inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter, and the price is expected to remain weakly volatile. The styrene market has short - term supply tightening, but inventory accumulation restricts its upward momentum, and the short - term trend mainly follows the movement of crude oil [2][3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Pure Benzene - **Supply**: This week, the overall supply remained relatively stable. Although some devices had planned and unplanned shutdowns, some hydro - benzene devices restarted. Looking ahead, two factories in East China postponed their device maintenance, two small long - shut - down devices in Shandong are planned to resume operation in mid - October, and there will be European shipments arriving from November to December, so the supply is expected to increase in the fourth quarter [2][7] - **Demand**: The downstream start - up situation was mixed. The start - up rates of styrene and adipic acid declined, while some devices such as caprolactam, aniline, and phenol restarted and increased their loads, causing the overall converted demand to rebound slightly compared to the previous period. However, the terminal consumption has not shown signs of a traditional peak - season recovery, and the weak industrial chain profit has limited the boost [2] - **Inventory**: The pure benzene inventory at East China ports decreased to 10.7 tons, a de - stocking of 2.7 tons compared to the previous week, with a decline rate of 20.1%. In the short term, the de - stocking provides certain support to the market, but in the context of supply accumulation and insufficient demand improvement in the fourth quarter, the pattern of inventory accumulation is difficult to reverse [2] - **Price**: The price generally fluctuated with crude oil. Due to the short - term de - stocking support and the low valuation, the downward space is limited, but the supply increase and weak demand in the fourth quarter will keep the price weakly volatile [2] - **Profit**: The profit of downstream industries weakened. The overall demand of downstream industries was weak, and although there was some improvement during the traditional peak season, the boost was limited. At the same time, the upstream pure benzene price remained firm, increasing the cost pressure on downstream enterprises and further compressing the overall gross profit margin [15] Styrene - **Supply**: Zhejiang Petrochemical's two 600,000 - ton devices stopped due to malfunctions and are expected to resume operation by early October, causing the overall supply in September to continue to tighten. However, with the gradual commissioning of new devices of Jilin Petrochemical and Guangxi Petrochemical and the return of maintenance devices, the supply will increase month - by - month in the fourth quarter [3] - **Demand**: The performance of the demand side was differentiated. Among the 3S sectors, the start - up rate of EPS decreased to 55.2%, a decline of 6.5 percentage points compared to the previous week; ABS remained at 70%, a slight increase of 0.2 percentage points; PS dropped to 59.1%, a decline of 2.1 percentage points. The overall downstream demand is at a high level within the year but lacks the power for further expansion [3] - **Inventory**: The port inventory increased to 18.7 tons, an increase of 2.8 tons compared to the previous week, with an increase rate of 17.3%. It is expected that the inventory will continue to accumulate in October [3][46] - **Production**: This week, the weekly production of styrene was 34.6 tons, a slight decrease of 0.1 tons compared to the previous week. The capacity utilization rate was 73.2%, a slight decrease of 0.2 percentage points [3] - **Price**: Both pure benzene and styrene are at historical lows. The valuation advantage limits the downward space to a certain extent, but the high inventory and the expectation of supply increase suppress the upward momentum, and the short - term trend mainly follows the movement of crude oil [3] - **Profit**: The styrene - pure benzene price difference continued to weaken, and the processing profit was continuously compressed [33] International Arbitrage - The arbitrage window is closed [5]