苹果价格震荡
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苹果产业日报-20251224
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-12-24 09:10
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Apple trading remains sluggish in the market, with low trading volume in cold storage in Shandong and Shaanxi, and few purchases by market customers. The festival atmosphere is weak. In contrast, trading is normal in Gansu, where customers continue to select suitable products as needed, and mainstream trading is stable, with prices determined by quality [2]. - The trading atmosphere for late Fuji apples remains weak, and customers' enthusiasm for purchasing from fruit farmers has declined. High - quality apples maintain firm prices, while the prices of medium - and low - quality apples have softened [2]. - In Shandong, a small number of customers are packaging their own inventory for shipment, and the enthusiasm for foreign trade sourcing has decreased. In Shaanxi's secondary production areas, the price of fruit farmers' apples has slightly declined, and a small amount of low - priced goods are being sold slowly. In some main production areas, prices have dropped due to quality issues [2]. - There is limited trading of fruit farmers' apples in cold storage, and the atmosphere for Christmas and New Year's Day stocking is weak. The sales in the distribution market are still poor, showing a year - on - year decline. The increasing supply of tangerines and other citrus fruits is impacting apple sales. With the approaching of the two festivals, apple prices may fluctuate in the short term [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main apple futures contract is 9191 yuan/ton, and the main contract's open interest is 143,446 lots, a decrease of 1395 lots compared to the previous period. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is 3298 lots, a decrease of 1486 lots [2]. Spot Market - The spot price of apples in Gansu Jingning (paper - bagged, above 75) is 5.25 yuan/jin, and in Shandong Yiyuan (paper - bagged, above 75) is 2.6 yuan/jin, both unchanged from the previous period. The spot price in Shaanxi Luochuan (paper - bagged, above 70) is 4.2 yuan/jin, and in Shandong Yantai Qixia (paper - bagged, above 80) is 4 yuan/jin, also unchanged [2]. Upstream Situation - The national apple production is 5128.51 million tons. The weekly fruit wholesale price of apples is 9.3 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.07 yuan/kg; the average wholesale price of Fuji apples is 9.14 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.01 yuan/kg [2]. - The total national apple cold - storage inventory is 752.98 million tons, a decrease of 5.57 million tons. The storage capacity ratio of apples in Shandong is 0.57, and in Shaanxi is 0.53. The monthly apple export volume is 120,000 tons, a decrease of 40,000 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly import value of fresh and dried fruits and nuts is 16.2 billion US dollars, and the monthly export value of apples has decreased by 216,418 US dollars compared to the same period last year. The weekly profit of storage merchants for first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80 apples is 0 yuan/jin [2]. Downstream Situation - The weekly fruit wholesale price of pears is 6.72 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.04 yuan/kg; the price of bananas is 6.83 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.23 yuan/kg; the price of watermelons is 5.73 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.09 yuan/kg [2]. - The average daily number of trucks arriving in the morning at the Guangdong Jiangmen wholesale market is 17.2, an increase of 2.6; at the Guangdong Xiaqiao wholesale market, it is 2.8; at the Guangdong Chalong wholesale market, it is 27.6, an increase of 3.8 [2]. Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for apples is 24.55%, a decrease of 0.1%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 24.55%, a decrease of 0.11% [2]