报告 苹果期货一周简评 证监许可【2011】1288号 2025年10月11日 更多精彩内容 请关注 格林大华期货 官方微信 研究员：王子健 联系方式：17803978037 期货从业资格证号：F03087965 期货交易咨询号：Z0019551 苹果期货一周简评 全国苹果主产区晚富士采收进度受持续阴雨天气明显制约。山东栖霞、沂源等核心产区当前仍处 于集中卸袋阶段，新季红货上市量有限，交易以库存老富士为主，纸袋晚富士80#以上统货价格维持 在2.50-4.50元/斤区间；陕西洛川产区虽卸袋基本完成，但红货供应不足导致70#以上半商品果价格 持稳在4.20-4.50元/斤。值得注意的是，甘肃静宁山地果凭借品质优势显现较强议价能力，75#以上 商品果价格坚挺在5.00-5.50元/斤高位。当前各产区普遍呈现果农惜售与客商谨慎采购的博弈态势， 叠加国庆中秋双节期间走货不畅的市场惯性，采购商观望情绪浓厚，新季晚富士大规模交易仍需等待 上色成熟度提升。整体来看，新季晚富士上市推迟与库存质量分化形成市场主要矛盾，好货稀缺支撑 现货底部价格，但交易疲软又制约上行空间，建议投资者密切关注主产区晚熟富士好货占比及主流订 购价变 ...

长江期货鲜果月报 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字{2014}1号 2025-9-26 【长期研究|棉纺团队】 黄尚海 执业编号:F0270997 投资咨询编号:Z0002826 震荡偏强运行 01 走势回顾：9月鲜果价格走势 02 宏观分析：消费缓慢好转 03 苹果展望：上市博弈展开 04 红枣展望：价格高位震荡 目 录 01 走势回顾：9月鲜果价格走势 01 9月鲜果价格走势 Ø 9月份苹果期货整体偏强运行，价格寻求突破8500元/吨的压力位。 Ø 9月份红枣价格呈现探底回升走势，前期非常弱势，后期出现回升，但整体价格有回落。 数据来源：博易大师、IFIND、长江期货 02 宏观分析：消费缓慢好转 02 下游消费缓慢回升 数据来源：IFIND、上海钢联、中果网、长江期货 Ø 2025年8月，我国社会消费品零售总额为39668亿元，同比增长3.4%，增速较7月小幅回落0.3个百分点；扣除价格因素后，实际增 长4.1%，实际增速较7月加快0.2个百分点，反映居民消费能力稳步提升。1-8月累计实现323906亿元，同比增长4.6%。 Ø 商品零售：商品零售额35172亿元，同比增长3.6%，其 ...

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:苹果(日,元/吨) 110 主力合约持仓量:苹果(日,手) 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:苹果(日,手) 3880 | 8446 6315 | 99908 | 508 | | 现货市场 | 甘肃静宁苹果现货价格(纸袋75#以上)(日, 山东沂源苹果现货价格(纸袋75#以上)(日, | | | 0 | | | 0 | 4 | 2.3 | | | | 元/斤) 元/斤) 陕西洛川苹果现货价格(纸袋70#以上半 山东烟台栖霞现货价格(纸袋80#以上一 | | | | | | 0 | 4 | 3.7 | 0 | | 上游情况 | 商品)(日,元/斤) 全国:苹果产量(年,万吨) 168.34 二级果农货)(日,元/斤) | 5128.51 | | | | 产业情况 | 批发价:苹果(周,元/公斤) -0.06 平均批发价:富士苹果(周,元/公斤) | 9.7 | 9.35 | -0.03 | | | 全国苹果冷库总库存(周,万吨) -4.59 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The market has a relatively high expectation for the opening price of late - maturing Fuji apples, providing a certain support at the bottom. It is recommended to mainly take short - long positions [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the apple futures main contract is 8288 yuan/ton; the main contract holding volume is 87189 hands, a decrease of 6698 hands; the net buying volume of the top 20 futures holdings is 700 hands, an increase of 348 hands [2] Spot Market - The spot prices of apples in Gansu Jingning (paper - bag 75 and above), Shandong Yiyuan (paper - bag 75 and above), Shaanxi Luochuan (paper - bag 70 and above semi - commercial), and Shandong Yantai Qixia (paper - bag 80 and above first - grade secondary fruit farmers' goods) are 4 yuan/jin, 2.3 yuan/jin, 4 yuan/jin, and 3.7 yuan/jin respectively, with no change [2] Upstream Situation - The national apple annual output is 5128.51 million tons; the weekly average wholesale price of apples is 9.7 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.06 yuan/kg; the weekly average wholesale price of Fuji apples is 9.35 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.03 yuan/kg; the national apple cold - storage total inventory is 16.32 million tons, a decrease of 4.59 million tons; the Shandong apple storage capacity ratio is 0.04, a decrease of 0.01; the Shaanxi apple storage capacity ratio is 0; the monthly apple export volume is 70000 tons, an increase of 20000 tons [2] Industry Situation - The monthly export amount of apples is 6973.9 million US dollars, a decrease of 153306.5 million US dollars; the monthly import amount of fresh and dried fruits and nuts is 1589295.5 million US dollars; the weekly profit of first - and second - grade paper - bag apple 80 storage merchants is 0.3 yuan/jin, with no change [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly average wholesale price of tangerines is 8.09 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.65 yuan/kg; the weekly wholesale price of bananas is 5.56 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.02 yuan/kg; the weekly wholesale price of watermelons is 3.72 yuan/kg; the weekly average daily early - morning arrival vehicle volume at the Guangdong Jiangmen wholesale market is 16.2 vehicles, an increase of 4.2 vehicles; the weekly average daily early - morning arrival vehicle volume at the Guangdong Xiaqiao wholesale market is 20.2 vehicles; the weekly average daily early - morning arrival vehicle volume at the Guangdong Chalong wholesale market is 31.8 vehicles, an increase of 6.24 vehicles [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for apples is 22.24%, and the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 22.21%, an increase of 0.09% [2] Industry News - The trading of early - maturing Fuji in the western region has basically ended. Affected by rainfall, the bag - removing of late - maturing Fuji in many places such as Yan'an and Weinan has been postponed. There are sporadic orders from merchants, and the price is not much different from that of early - maturing Fuji. The trading of Hongjiangjun in the Shandong production area is coming to an end, and the transaction price fluctuates and adjusts due to the volume of goods on the market. The transaction price range of Hongjiangjun in the new - season Shandong is large due to quality issues, and the price advantage of poor - quality goods is relatively obvious [2] Viewpoint Summary - The double - festival stocking is progressing gradually. The bag - removing of late - maturing Fuji is sporadic, and the rainfall in the western region may postpone the large - scale bag - removing time of late - maturing Fuji. As of September 17, 2025, the apple cold - storage inventory in the national main production areas is 16.32 million tons, a decrease of 4.59 million tons from last week. Affected by the trading of medium - maturing varieties, the inventory shipment speed in the Shandong production area has slowed down. The storage capacity ratio in the Shandong production area is 3.51%, a decrease of 0.82% from last week. The de - stocking speed in the Shandong production area has slowed down. Local small merchants tend to choose Hongjiangjun with lower prices. The price of high - quality goods in the warehouse is relatively stable, while the price of fruit farmers' goods is weak [2]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report [3][18] 2) Core Viewpoints - The market is in a complex situation of dual - festival stocking and the alternation of new and old seasons. The delay in the listing of new - season late - Fuji apples and the differentiation of inventory quality are the main market contradictions. The scarcity of high - quality goods supports the bottom price of the spot, but weak trading restricts the upward space. The futures market maintains a volatile pattern under the influence of multiple and short factors. It is recommended to hold long positions in AP2601 [3]. - As the weather turns cooler, the supply of seasonal fruits decreases, and the demand for Mid - Autumn and National Day gift boxes boosts the apple consumption market. The purchasing enthusiasm of merchants increases, and the sales speed accelerates. The acquisition price of late - maturing Fuji may benefit from the high opening price of early - and mid - maturing apples and festival consumption expectations. It is necessary to focus on the climate impact on the high - quality fruit rate of late - maturing Fuji and the opening price dynamics from late September to early October. It is recommended to hold long positions in AP2601 [18]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Apple Production Areas - **Shandong**: The price of inventory paper - bagged late - Fuji apples (80 and above, slice - red, first - and second - grade) is 3.00 - 4.00 yuan/jin; the price of paper - bagged late - Fuji apples (80 and above, slice - red, general goods) is 2.50 - 3.00 yuan/jin; the price of inventory striped late - Fuji apples (80 and above, first - and second - grade) is 3.50 - 4.50 yuan/jin. The price of cream generals (75 and above) is 1.50 - 1.80 yuan/jin, and the e - commerce procurement enthusiasm is fair [6]. - **Shaanxi**: The price of paper - bagged early - Fuji apples (70 and above, semi - commercial) is 4.50 - 4.85 yuan/jin, and the price of general goods is 3.50 - 3.60 yuan/jin [6]. Apple Inventory As of September 12, 2025, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas of the country was 20.91 tons, a decrease of 6.44 tons compared with the previous week, and the sales speed slowed down compared with the previous week. As of September 17, the national apple cold - storage inventory decreased by 4.59 tons to 16.32 tons week - on - week, reflecting the digestion effect of holiday demand on inventory [3][8]. Downstream Sales Areas In the Guangdong Chalong market, the number of trucks arriving in the morning has decreased week - on - week, with an average of about 51 trucks per week. The number of arriving trucks has increased slightly compared with the previous off - season. The market is still dominated by Fuji apples, with an increase in early - maturing Gala apples. The sales of early - maturing apples are fair, but the profits of merchants are average. The terminal sales speed is not fast, the digestion speed of high - quality goods is fair, and the digestion of poor - quality goods is slow. Seasonal fruits impact the apple market sales, the number of arriving trucks in the market is still at a low level, the terminal digestion has slowed down slightly, and second - and third - level wholesalers maintain on - demand purchases [11]. Other Fruit Prices As of the 23rd week of 2025, the average wholesale price of six kinds of fruits monitored by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs was 8.04 yuan/kg, a week - on - week increase of 0.25 yuan/kg. Among them, the average wholesale prices of Kyoho grapes, Fuji apples, Ya pears, and pineapples increased by 1.51 yuan/kg, 0.29 yuan/kg, 0.03 yuan/kg, and 0.05 yuan/kg respectively compared with the 22nd week. The average wholesale prices of bananas and watermelons decreased by 0.03 yuan/kg and 0.34 yuan/kg respectively compared with the 22nd week [14].

"家人们、老铁们，苹果现在到了成熟的季节，这是咱们平原村的苹果，日照时间特别的充足，口感特别的清甜，品质这么好的苹果，大家需要的话可以来 采摘……"在山西晋中市昔阳县赵壁乡平原村苹果种植基地，主播正举着鲜红的红星苹果，对着镜头热情推介。直播间里订单不断，果园里更是一派热闹景 象——村民们穿梭在果树间采摘，分拣摊上的苹果堆成小山，金秋的丰收气息扑面而来。 金秋时节的平原村苹果产业园，550亩果树长势喜人。放眼望去，漫山遍野的苹果树上挂满了红彤彤的果实，像一个个红灯笼，把枝头压得沉甸甸的。2017 年至2018年栽种的323亩瓦里短枝苹果与200多亩富士苹果，今年全面进入盛果期。得益于今年自然灾害少、管理精细化，加之平原村光照充足、土壤肥沃的 自然优势，这里的苹果外形圆润均匀、果面光洁细腻，咬下一口满是香脆甜爽，早已成为消费者青睐的"心头好"。 为了让这份"甜蜜"走得更远，平原村早早构建起"线上+线下"全域销售体系。线上，依托电商平台，用直播带货、短视频展示果园风光与苹果品质，打破地 域限制，让全国网友都能尝到新鲜；线下，村集体主动对接河北等地客商，签订采购订单，再加上政府帮忙助销，彻底打通了产销链路。 平原村党 ...

研究员: 王翠冰 期货从业资格号F03139616 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021556 免责声明 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:苹果(日,元/吨) 9 主力合约持仓量:苹果(日,手) 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:苹果(日,手) | 8281 1370 | -1008 | | 83396 | 2317 | | 现货市场 | 甘肃静宁苹果现货价格(纸袋75#以上)(日, | 4 | 0 | 山东沂源苹果现货价格(纸袋75#以上)(日, | 2.3 | 0 | | 元/斤) | 陕西洛川苹果现货价格(纸袋70#以上半 元/斤) 山东烟台栖霞现货价格(纸袋80#以上一 | | | | | | | | | 4 | 0 | | 3.7 | 0 | | 上游情况 | 商品)(日,元/斤) 二级果农货)(日,元/斤) 全国:苹果产量(年,万吨) | 5128.51 | 168.34 | | | | | 产业情况 | | | | | | | | ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the successful cultivation of specialty plums in Xiangyuan County, Shanxi, which has significantly improved the livelihoods of local villagers through agricultural employment and increased income opportunities [1][5]. Group 1: Agricultural Practices - The unique environmental conditions in Bailingzhuang Village, such as drought-resistant soil and significant temperature variations, are ideal for growing plums, resulting in large, sweet, and visually appealing fruits [3][5]. - The orchard employs organic farming practices, utilizing natural fertilizers and manual pest control to ensure high-quality fruit production [7]. Group 2: Economic Impact - The plum orchard spans 30 acres and is home to over 1,800 fruit trees, with expected yields of 8,000 pounds of plums, over 10,000 pounds of pears, and around 40,000 pounds of apples this year [7]. - Villagers can earn over 80 yuan per day working in the orchard, with total earnings during the harvest season exceeding 2,000 yuan, providing them with additional income while managing their own agricultural activities [5][7]. Group 3: Community Engagement - The orchard attracts many visitors for fruit picking, enhancing community engagement and promoting local tourism [5][7]. - The initiative not only enriches the local fruit supply but also creates job opportunities for residents, allowing them to work close to home [5].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: Apple Daily Report - Date: August 28, 2024 - Researcher: Liu Qiannan [2] Group 2: Market Information Spot Prices - Fuji Apple Price Index: 109.50, up 0.07 from the previous trading day - 6 Kinds of Fruit Average Wholesale Price: 6.86, up 0.03 from the previous trading day [3] Futures Prices - AP01: 8290, up 138 from the previous trading day - AP05: 8215, up 125 from the previous trading day - AP10: 8414, up 136 from the previous trading day [3] Group 3: Market News and Views Apple Market News - Inventory: As of August 13, 2025, the cold storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas of China was 460,100 tons, a decrease of 75,800 tons from the previous week, and the shipping speed slowed down slightly [4] - Customs Data: In July 2025, the total export volume of fresh apples was about 53,600 tons, a month-on-month increase of 44.95%. The import volume was 17,700 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 5.73% and a year-on-year increase of 8.47%. From January to July 2025, the cumulative import volume was 86,600 tons, a year-on-year increase of 29.76% [6] - Profit: In the 2024 - 2025 production season, the profit of apple storage merchants in Qixia for 80 first and second - grade apples was 0.4 yuan per catty, a decrease of 0.1 yuan per catty from the previous week [7] Trading Logic - The current market inventory is low, and the market demand is in the off - season. The new - season apple production is expected to change little from this season. The early - maturing apples have a low excellent fruit rate, and the price of high - quality apples is high while that of low - quality apples is low. It is expected that the price of new - season Fuji apples will be high at the initial stage of listing, and the short - term futures market will fluctuate slightly stronger [8] Group 4: Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Since the excellent fruit rate of new - season apples may be poor, it is recommended to build long positions on dips and conduct low - buying and high - selling rolling operations [9] - Arbitrage: It is recommended to wait and see [10] - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [11] Group 5: Related Attachments - The report includes 10 figures, such as the price of Qixia first and second - grade paper - bag 80 apples, the price of Luochuan semi - commercial paper - bag 70 apples, AP contract main basis, etc. [15][17][23][25]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The low inventory of old apples, high expectations for the opening price of late - maturing Fuji apples, and pre - Mid - Autumn Festival stocking expectations will boost the price trend. It is recommended to conduct short - term long trades at low prices and pay attention to the listing of early - maturing Fuji apples [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the October apple futures contract is 8278 yuan/ton, and the position of the main contract is 89060 lots, with a week - on - week increase of 16948 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is 3562 lots, with a week - on - week increase of 4102 lots [2] Spot Market - The spot prices of apples in Gansu Jingning (paper - bagged above 75), Shandong Yiyuan (paper - bagged above 75), and Shaanxi Luochuan (paper - bagged above 70 semi - commodities) are 4 yuan/jin, 2.3 yuan/jin, and 4 yuan/jin respectively, with no week - on - week change [2] Upstream Situation - The annual national apple output is 5128.51 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 168.34 million tons. The weekly average wholesale price of apples is 9.74 yuan/kg, with a week - on - week increase of 0.08 yuan/kg, and the average wholesale price of Fuji apples is 9.5 yuan/kg, with a week - on - week increase of 0.02 yuan/kg. The total national apple cold - storage inventory is 39.45 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 6.56 million tons. The capacity ratios of apple cold - storages in Shandong and Shaanxi are 0.01 and 0.07 respectively. The monthly apple export volume is 50000 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 10000 tons [2] Industry Situation - The monthly import value of fresh, dried fruits and nuts is 1997.6 million US dollars, and the monthly export value of apples is 6328.4 million US dollars, with a month - on - month decrease of 212886 million US dollars. The weekly profit of first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80 apple storage merchants is 0.4 yuan/jin, with no week - on - week change [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly average wholesale price of tangerines is 9.76 yuan/kg, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.35 yuan/kg; the weekly wholesale price of bananas is 5.7 yuan/kg, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.05 yuan/kg; the weekly wholesale price of watermelons is 3.5 yuan/kg, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.04 yuan/kg. The average daily morning arrival vehicle numbers at the Guangdong Jiangmen, Chalong, and Xiaqiao fruit wholesale markets are 11.4, 14.4, and 22.2 respectively, with week - on - week increases of 3.8, 4.8, and 7.2 respectively [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options for apples is 21.38%, with a week - on - week increase of 1.51% [2] Industry News - On August 27, 2025, the trading of bagged Gala apples in the western production areas basically ended, with the remaining fruits of poor quality and chaotic prices. The bag - removing work of early - maturing Fuji apples has started, but large - scale listing is yet to come. The supply of Gansu Huaniu apples is increasing, but the purchasing enthusiasm of merchants is average, and the price is slowly declining. In the Shandong production area, the trading of stored Fuji apples is still ongoing, with holders eager to sell and the market weak. The supply of early - maturing varieties such as Mei 8 and Luli is decreasing, and transactions are priced according to quality. The apple 2510 contract rose 1.47% on Wednesday [2] Viewpoint Summary - It is initially estimated that the national apple output in the new season will be 3736.64 million tons, an increase of 85.93 million tons or 2.35% compared to the 2024 - 2025 production season. As of August 20, 2025, the national apple cold - storage inventory is 39.45 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6.56 million tons. Although the inventory of old apples is low, the increase in the supply of early - maturing apples has affected the de - stocking speed of inventory goods, and the sales volume has slowed down slightly compared to last week. The market is worried that late - maturing Fuji apples may also have quality problems, leading to high expectations for their opening price [2]