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中加经贸关系缓和 菜系将迎来哪些变化?
Qi Huo Ri Bao· 2026-01-18 02:20
Group 1 - The recent discussions between China and Canada have led to specific arrangements to address trade issues in electric vehicles, steel, aluminum products, canola seeds, and agricultural products [1] - China plans to adjust anti-dumping measures on Canadian canola seeds and discriminatory measures on certain agricultural products, potentially allowing Canadian canola seeds and meal to re-enter the Chinese market by March [1] - Current canola meal inventory in China is around 470,000 tons, with 150,000 to 200,000 tons expected to be from Canada in 2025, currently stored in bonded warehouses [1] Group 2 - The theoretical profit margin for importing Canadian canola seeds remains around 300 CNY per ton, considering a 15% import tariff and 9% VAT, but this may change with fluctuations in external prices [2] - The price of ICE canola seeds has started to rebound, and as China-Canada trade relations improve, the CNF price of Canadian canola seeds may also rise, potentially narrowing profit margins [2] - If tariff rates on Canadian canola seeds are adjusted after March, domestic oil mills may face tight supply conditions until then [2] Group 3 - The valuation of Chinese canola products is expected to become more internationalized, with international canola meal prices currently weak while Canadian canola oil prices are supported by the U.S. market [3] - The resumption of China-Canada canola trade is anticipated to gradually reflect supply pressures in the domestic market, with Canadian canola oil dependent on the fulfillment of U.S. RVO policies [3] - Domestic canola meal prices are approaching corn prices, and if prices decline further, demand for canola meal may improve [3]