最近，加拿大毫不掩饰地对中国电动车出手，突然宣布对来自中国的电动车征收100%的关税，同时还对中国进口的钢铝产品加征25%的关税。这一举措让 很多人感到困惑，显得完全没有任何理由。 这背后到底是什么原因呢？我们从美国的回应中找到了答案。美国对这一行为的支持似乎暗示了加拿大的立场，甚至让人怀疑加拿大是否只是跟着美国的步 伐走。那么，面对这样的局面，中国又该如何应对呢？ 8月26日，加拿大正式宣布了这一决定，对来自中国的电动汽车征收100%的关税，并且对钢铝产品也加大了税收。显然，这项带有"歧视"性质的政策违反了 《1994年GATT协议》的相关规定。更令人质疑的是，加拿大这样做的理由站不住脚，因为中国的电动汽车和钢铝产品并没有对加拿大市场造成严重冲击。 如今，自由贸易趋势日益明显，所谓的"贸易保护主义"显然不再适用。加拿大对此的所谓"预防"措施，看起来更像是没有实质依据的行动。 实际上，双方在未发生"贸易转移"之前应该遵循贸易规定，维护全球市场的稳定。而加拿大所提及的"贸易转移"概念，也显然被他们过度扩展并用来为自己 的行为"辩护"。事实上，这样的行为看起来更像是为了迎合美国的做法。 美国在此前就曾对中国的电动 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The export sales of US soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil are expected to increase, with different expected net increases in different fiscal years [1]. - Malaysia's palm oil exports from August 1 - 25, 2025, increased by 36.41% compared to the same period last month [1]. - The average estimated yield of Canadian rapeseed is 20.3 million tons, with a forecast range of 19 - 21.2 million tons [1]. - Australia's rapeseed yield this year is expected to be between 5.8 - 7.2 million tons [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Overnight Market Information - **US Exports**: Before the USDA's weekly export sales report (scheduled for 20:30 Beijing time on Thursday), a survey of industry analysts showed that as of the week ending August 21, US soybean export sales are expected to net increase by 25 - 105 tons, with a net decrease of 20 tons to a net increase of 5 tons in the 2024 - 2025 fiscal year and a net increase of 45 - 100 tons in the 2025 - 2026 fiscal year. US soybean meal export sales are expected to net increase by 12.5 - 45 tons, with 2.5 - 15 tons in the 2024 - 2025 fiscal year and 10 - 30 tons in the 2025 - 2026 fiscal year. US soybean oil export sales are expected to net increase by 0 - 1.4 tons, with 0 - 0.8 tons in the 2024 - 2025 fiscal year and 0 - 0.6 tons in the 2025 - 2026 fiscal year [1]. - **Malaysia's Palm Oil Exports**: According to SGS, Malaysia's palm oil product exports from August 1 - 25, 2025, were 933,437 tons, a 36.41% increase from 684,308 tons in the same period last month [1]. - **Canadian Rapeseed Yield**: Canada's Statistics Bureau plans to release the estimated yield of major farm crops as of the end of July 2025 at 20:30 Beijing time on Thursday. Based on the forecasts of 6 traders and analysts, the average estimated yield of rapeseed is 20.3 million tons, with a range of 19 - 21.2 million tons, compared to 19.5 million tons reported by the Statistics Bureau in August last year [1]. - **Australian Rapeseed Yield**: Australia's ABARES estimates that the country's rapeseed yield this year will be between 5.8 - 7.2 million tons, compared to 6.1 million tons last year and a 10 - year average of 4.8 million tons [1]. Spot Prices - The spot prices of soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu from August 21 - 27, 2025, are provided [1].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Policy and origin reports are favorable, with the oil market remaining strong and rapeseed oil showing significant fluctuations. Last week, soybean and palm oil prices continued to rise, while rapeseed oil first rose and then fell after breaking through the upper limit. - In the origin, MPOB reported that Malaysia's palm oil production, exports, and inventory in July increased by 7.09%, 3.82%, and 4.02% respectively. In August, production decreased by 17%, and exports increased by 17 - 24%. The reference price for crude palm oil in September was raised to 4,053.43 ringgit per ton. The good - rate of US soybeans is 68%. The USDA report shows an increase in the US soybean yield per acre by 1.1 bushels to 53.6 bushels, a decrease in the harvest area by 2.4 million acres to 80.1 million acres, a decrease in inventory by 200 million bushels to 290 million bushels, and a July US soybean crushing volume of 195.699 million bushels. - In the domestic market, the spot trading of soybean oil maintains a good momentum, and palm oil is mainly for essential purchases. Soybean oil inventory has increased to 1.14 million tons; 9 new purchase vessels have been added this week, and palm oil inventory is between 550,000 - 560,000 tons. - The USDA August report raised the US soybean yield per acre as expected, but the reduction in the harvest area offset the increase in yield per acre, resulting in a decrease in the new - season US soybean production and ending inventory. The report is favorable, and the July US soybean crushing volume is higher than expected and the previous month, causing CBOT soybeans to return to the 1000 - 1050 range. Although Malaysia's palm oil production, exports, and inventory all increased in July, the inventory increase was less than expected, making the MPOB report generally favorable under the trading of the expected difference. In August, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased and exports increased, with the overall supply - demand situation improving. Indonesia has repeatedly reiterated the implementation of B50 in 2026, but the market has doubts. The Indonesian government has confiscated 3.1 million hectares of illegal palm oil plantations, which will continue to restrict the growth of Indonesia's palm oil production. The supply - demand and policies in the origin provide support, and BMD crude palm oil has broken through the 4400 mark. China's preliminary ruling on the anti - dumping investigation of imported Canadian rapeseed has been finalized, and the market is worried about future Canadian rapeseed exports, causing the ICE rapeseed price to fall. - In terms of operations, the market digests the impact of China's preliminary ruling on the anti - dumping investigation of imported Canadian rapeseed. Rapeseed oil first rose and then fell. Supported by supply - demand and policies in the origin, palm oil has broken through the upper limit, and the previous low - position long positions should continue to be held. Driven by the "reverse export" trading and the strength of palm oil, the center of soybean oil continues to rise. Be cautious about chasing high prices and mainly go long on dips [7][8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - Favorable origin monthly reports and policies led CBOT soybeans to return to the 1000 - 1050 range last week. The centers of domestic and foreign palm oil and Dalian soybean oil rose significantly, while rapeseed oil first rose and then fell [10]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **USDA August Report on US Soybeans**: The USDA August report shows a decrease in the expected ending inventory of US soybeans. The planting area is 80.9 million acres, a decrease of 2.5 million acres month - on - month; the harvest area is 80.1 million acres, a decrease of 2.4 million acres month - on - month; the expected yield per acre is 53.6 bushels, an increase of 1.1 bushels month - on - month; the production is 4.292 billion bushels, a decrease of 430 million bushels month - on - month; the crushing volume is 2.54 billion bushels, unchanged month - on - month; the export volume is 1.705 billion bushels, a decrease of 400 million bushels month - on - month; the expected ending inventory is 290 million bushels, a decrease of 200 million bushels month - on - month [14]. - **US Soybean Good - Rate**: As of the week ending August 10, the good - rate of US soybeans was 68%, in line with market expectations, compared with 69% the previous week and 68% in the same period last year. As of the week ending August 12, about 3% of the US soybean planting areas were affected by drought, the same as the previous week [16]. - **US Soybean Crushing Volume in July**: In July 2025, the US soybean crushing volume was 195.699 million bushels, the highest level in the same period over the years, higher than the market expectation of 191.59 million bushels and 185.709 million bushels in June. The soybean oil inventory in July was 1.379 billion pounds, close to the market expectation of 1.38 billion pounds and higher than 1.366 billion pounds in June 2025 [19]. - **Brazilian Soybean Premium**: In July, Brazil exported 12.26 million tons of soybeans, exceeding 10 million tons for five consecutive months. Last week, the premium of Brazilian soybeans reached a maximum of 227 cents per bushel [22]. - **MPOB Report on Malaysian Palm Oil**: In July, Malaysia's palm oil production was 1.81 million tons, an increase of 7.09% month - on - month; exports were 1.31 million tons, an increase of 3.82% month - on - month; inventory was 2.11 million tons, an increase of 4.02% month - on - month. In August, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 17.27% in the first 5 days, and exports increased by 16.5% - 21.3% in the first 15 days. Malaysia raised the reference price for crude palm oil in September to 4,053.43 ringgit per ton (US$962.12) and the export tax to 10% [25][28]. - **Indonesian Palm Oil Industry**: In May, Indonesia's palm oil production was 4.561 million tons, exports were 2.664 million tons, and inventory was 2.906 million tons. An investigation shows that 3.7 million hectares of palm plantations have illegal activities, and the Indonesian government has confiscated 3.1 million hectares of illegal plantations [29]. - **Indian Edible Oil Imports**: In July, India's palm oil imports decreased by 10% to 858,000 tons, soybean oil imports increased by 38% to 495,000 tons, and sunflower oil imports decreased by 7% to 201,000 tons. The total edible oil imports increased by 1.5% to 1.53 million tons. In the 2024/25 fiscal year, India's soybean oil imports are expected to increase by 60% to 5.5 million tons, palm oil imports are expected to decrease by 13.5% to 7.8 million tons, and sunflower oil imports are expected to decrease by 20% to 2.8 million tons [32]. - **China's Anti - Dumping Investigation on Canadian Rapeseed**: On August 12, 2025, the Ministry of Commerce announced the preliminary ruling on the anti - dumping investigation of imported Canadian rapeseed, determining that there is dumping. Starting from August 14, 2025, a 75.8% deposit will be collected from all Canadian companies [35]. - **Domestic Oilseed Pressing Profits**: The price of raw materials in the origin decreased, and the price of domestic pressing by - products first rose and then fell. Last week, the spot and futures pressing profits of imported rapeseed reached around 800, and then fell back to 600 - 650 in the second half of the week. The price of domestic palm oil increased significantly, with 9 new purchase vessels added. The import profit inversion of palm oil for the September - December shipment period has shrunk to less than 100 [36]. - **Domestic Oil Mill Soybean Inventory**: In July, 11.666 million tons of soybeans were imported, and the cumulative import from January to July was 61.035 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.6%. The oil mill's soybean crushing start - up rate continued to decline slightly. At the beginning of August, 2.18 million tons of soybeans were crushed weekly, and it is expected to rise to 2.37 million tons in the second week. During the same period, the soybean arrival was significantly higher than the increase in crushing volume, and the oil mill's soybean inventory increased by 550,000 tons week - on - week to 7.11 million tons, the highest level in nearly a year [42]. - **Domestic Oil Mill Rapeseed Inventory and Pressing**: In recent weeks, the weekly rapeseed crushing volume of oil mills has remained around 60,000 tons. Due to low arrivals, the oil mill's rapeseed inventory has continued to decline. As of the beginning of August, the oil mill's rapeseed inventory was 110,000 tons, reaching a historical low [43]. - **Domestic Oil Inventory**: As of early August, soybean oil inventory increased to 1.14 million tons, rapeseed oil inventory decreased at a slower pace and stabilized at 710,000 - 730,000 tons, palm oil inventory stabilized at 550,000 - 560,000 tons, and the total inventory of the three major oils was 2.34 million tons, compared with 2.03 million tons in the same period last year [46]. - **Domestic Oil Spot Prices**: As of August 15, the price of soybean oil was 8,712 yuan per ton, a 1.59% increase from the previous week; the price of palm oil was 9,360 yuan per ton, a 3.08% increase from the previous week; the price of rapeseed oil was 9,965 yuan per ton, a 2.36% increase from the previous week [51]. - **Domestic Oil Spot Trading**: Recently, the spot trading of soybean oil has been good, and palm oil trading is mainly for essential needs. Last week, the spot trading volume of soybean oil was 151,100 tons, compared with 154,400 tons the previous week; the trading volume of palm oil was 3,449 tons, compared with 2,183 tons the previous week; the trading volume of rapeseed oil was 1,000 tons, compared with 2,000 tons the previous week [54]. 3.3 Spread Tracking The report mentions the basis spread, but no specific content is provided.

Core Viewpoint - The trade tensions between China and Canada have escalated, particularly regarding Canadian canola seed imports, with China imposing a 75.8% deposit on all Canadian companies due to identified dumping practices [1][3]. Group 1: Trade Measures - China's Ministry of Commerce announced on August 12 that it would impose a 75.8% deposit on Canadian canola seed imports, effective from August 14, citing dumping practices that harm the domestic canola industry [1]. - This is not the first action taken by China against Canada; in March, China imposed a 100% tariff on Canadian canola oil and meal, following Canada's imposition of tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles and steel products [3]. - On the same day as the canola seed announcement, China initiated anti-dumping investigations on Canadian pea starch and identified dumping in brominated butyl rubber, also imposing deposits [3]. Group 2: Economic Impact - The timing of the deposit is critical as it coincides with the Canadian canola harvest season, leading to a significant drop in prices, nearly 30%, and creating pressure on Canadian farmers who rely heavily on the Chinese market [5]. - Canada exports nearly 5 billion CAD (approximately 26 billion RMB) of canola to China annually, indicating the substantial economic stakes involved [5]. - The Canadian Canola Council stated that the deposit effectively closes the door to the Chinese market for Canadian canola [6]. Group 3: Diplomatic Relations - The Chinese government has previously indicated that it would reconsider its measures if Canada lifted unreasonable tariffs on Chinese products, suggesting that diplomatic solutions are still possible [6]. - Canadian Prime Minister Carney has expressed a desire for constructive dialogue with China, but has not provided specific plans to support affected farmers, raising questions about the sincerity of these efforts [3][8]. - The Canadian government is under pressure from farmers and provincial leaders to address the trade issues, especially after failing to gain favor with the U.S. while simultaneously facing challenges from China [8].

Group 1 - The article highlights the contrasting trade policies between the US and China, with the US having no quota limits while China imposes significant tariffs on imports, particularly a 25% tax on steel products containing Chinese materials [1] - It suggests that the US is using China as a scapegoat to appease domestic political pressures, indicating a clear political maneuvering at play [1] - The article notes that Canada has faced heavy tariffs from the US, despite its attempts to retaliate, showcasing the power dynamics in North American trade relations [1] Group 2 - China has responded to Canadian imports by imposing a 100% tariff on canola oil and oilseed meal, as well as additional tariffs on seafood and pork, indicating a strong stance against perceived unfair trade practices [1] - On August 12, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce announced that Canadian canola imports were deemed to be dumped, leading to a requirement for Canadian companies to pay a 75.8% deposit starting August 14, effectively creating a high barrier for Canadian canola exports to China [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For palm oil, the origin has strong supply and demand, and it is recommended to go long at low levels [2]. - For soybean oil, the reduction of US soybean planting area provides a theme for price increases [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices and Changes**: Palm oil closed at 9,362 yuan/ton during the day session with a 1.56% increase and 9,414 yuan/ton at night with a 0.56% increase; soybean oil closed at 8,488 yuan/ton during the day session with a 0.38% increase and 8,516 yuan/ton at night with a 0.33% increase; rapeseed oil closed at 9,802 yuan/ton during the day session with a 2.23% increase and 10,079 yuan/ton at night with a 2.83% increase [3]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest Changes**: Palm oil trading volume decreased by 124,344 lots to 443,030 lots, and open interest decreased by 29,322 lots to 270,663 lots; soybean oil trading volume decreased by 23,809 lots to 140,203 lots, and open interest decreased by 28,769 lots to 306,250 lots; rapeseed oil trading volume increased by 77,172 lots to 271,285 lots, and open interest decreased by 8,561 lots to 117,479 lots [3]. - **Spot Prices and Changes**: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 9,260 yuan/ton, up 280 yuan/ton; the spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Guangdong was 8,650 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of imported fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 9,690 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan/ton [3]. - **Basis and Spread**: The basis of palm oil in Guangdong was - 102 yuan/ton; the basis of soybean oil in Guangdong was 162 yuan/ton; the basis of rapeseed oil in Guangxi was - 112 yuan/ton. The spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil futures was 448 yuan/ton; the spread between soybean oil and palm oil futures was - 886 yuan/ton [3]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Anti - Dumping Investigation**: The Ministry of Commerce announced the preliminary ruling on the anti - dumping investigation of imported rapeseed from Canada, imposing a 75.8% deposit rate on all Canadian companies, causing a 4.5% drop in ICE Canadian rapeseed futures [4][5]. - **Tariff Adjustment**: Starting from 12:01 on August 12, 2025, the 24% additional tariff on US imports will be suspended for 90 days, while the 10% additional tariff will be retained [5]. - **US Soybean Supply and Demand**: According to the August USDA supply - demand report, the expected US soybean production for 2025/2026 is 4.292 billion bushels, the expected ending inventory is 290 million bushels, and the expected yield is 53.6 bushels per acre [5]. - **Indian Oil Imports**: Indian soybean oil imports in 2024/25 are expected to soar 60% year - on - year to 5.5 million tons, while palm oil imports may drop 13.5% to 7.8 million tons, and sunflower oil imports may drop 20% to 2.8 million tons [6]. - **Malaysian Palm Oil Inventory**: Malaysian palm oil inventory reached a 19 - month high of 2.11 million tons in July. Analysts expect the inventory to remain above 2 million tons, with prices likely to decline in Q3 and rise in Q4 [7]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of palm oil is 1, and that of soybean oil is also 1, indicating a neutral trend [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - A commodity research institution estimates Canada's rapeseed production in the 2025/26 season to be 1,800 million tons, with an estimated range of 1,720 - 1,890 million tons, remaining unchanged from the previous estimate. However, the continuous dry conditions in Manitoba need to be closely monitored as they pose a risk to yield potential [1]. - Malaysia has lowered the reference price of crude palm oil for a certain month, resulting in a reduction of the export tax to 8.5%. The reference price for a previous month was RM3,926.59 per ton with a 9.5% tariff, while the current month's reference price is RM3,730.48 per ton [1]. - Malaysia's crude palm oil production from the 1st - 20th of a month decreased by 4.55% month - on - month. The production in the Malay Peninsula increased by 0.25%, while that in Sabah decreased by 13.27%, Sarawak decreased by 4.56%, and East Malaysia decreased by 11.06% [1]. - Malaysia's palm oil product exports from the 1st - 25th of a month reached 1,134,230 tons, a 6.8% increase compared to the same period last month [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Canada Rapeseed - The estimated production of Canadian rapeseed in the 2025/26 season is 1,800 million tons, with an estimated range of 1,720 - 1,890 million tons, unchanged from the previous estimate [1]. - Manitoba has a precipitation gap of about 30 mm in the past two weeks, and the precipitation gap in Saskatchewan and Manitoba is expected to reach 24 mm in the next 10 days, which poses a risk to yield potential [1]. Malaysian Palm Oil - Malaysia has lowered the reference price of crude palm oil, reducing the export tax to 8.5%. The reference price for a certain month is RM3,730.48 per ton [1]. - Malaysia's crude palm oil production from the 1st - 20th of a month decreased by 4.55% month - on - month, with different trends in different regions [1]. - Malaysia's palm oil product exports from the 1st - 25th of a month increased by 6.8% compared to the same period last month [1]. Price Information - The spot prices of soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu from June 19 - 25, 2025, are provided, showing a general downward trend [1].

Core Insights - ICE canola futures are approaching 720 Canadian dollars, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics as Chinese buyers return to the market after a month-long absence [1] - The resumption of canola exports to China from Canada suggests a possible turning point in demand for Canadian canola [1] Group 1 - The price of ICE canola futures nearing 720 CAD reflects increased market activity and interest [1] - The return of Chinese buyers to the Canadian canola market may signal a recovery in demand [1] - The recent developments in canola exports to China could indicate a broader trend in agricultural commodity markets [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that despite a significant increase of 1 million tons in Canadian canola seed exports, the inventory levels remain unchanged [1] Group 2 - The article provides an overview of agricultural supply and demand data, indicating a need for further analysis on the factors affecting inventory levels despite rising export volumes [1]