Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Palm oil shows a short - term strong performance due to B50 news stimulation; for soybean oil, attention should be paid to the quarterly inventory and planting intention report [1] - Indonesia will officially promote the B50 biodiesel blending policy plan this year, which was previously put on hold due to technical and financial concerns but is being discussed for restart due to global energy supply disruptions [3][5] - The US EPA has finalized the 2026 and 2027 Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) annual obligation volumes (RVOs), with the traditional biofuel production target remaining at 15 billion gallons, and the blending volume of biomass - based diesel increasing by nearly 60% [6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices and Fluctuations**: Palm oil主力 had a daily - session closing price with a 1.66% increase and a night - session closing price with a 0.75% increase; soybean oil主力 had a daily - session closing price increase of 0.30% and a night - session increase of 0.46%; rapeseed oil主力 had a daily - session increase of 0.14% and a night - session increase of 0.13%. The Malaysian palm oil主力 increased by 3.07% in the daily session and 0.59% in the night session, and CBOT soybean oil主力 increased by 1.47% [1] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: For palm oil主力, the trading volume was 501,201 lots with a change of 153,036, and the open interest was 280,149 lots with a decrease of 8,265; for soybean oil主力, the trading volume was 298,200 lots with a change of 96,747, and the open interest was 498,900 lots with a decrease of 38,768; for rapeseed oil主力, the trading volume was 207,805 lots with a change of 60,479, and the open interest was 199,645 lots with a decrease of 13,357 [1] - **Spot Prices**: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 9,780 yuan/ton with a price change of 130 yuan/ton; the spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Guangdong was 9,020 yuan/ton with no price change; the spot price of fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 10,150 yuan/ton with no price change; the FOB offshore price of Malaysian palm oil was 1,190 US dollars/ton with a price change of 5 US dollars/ton [1] - **Basis**: The basis of palm oil in Guangdong was - 150 yuan/ton; the basis of soybean oil in Guangdong was 306 yuan/ton; the basis of rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 259 yuan/ton [1] - **Price Spreads**: The futures price spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil was - 39 yuan/ton; the futures price spread between soybean oil and palm oil was - 1,216 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 spread of palm oil was 30 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 spread of soybean oil was 40 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 spread of rapeseed oil was 98 yuan/ton [1] Macro and Industry News - Malaysia's palm oil production from March 1 - 20 was estimated to increase by 0.92%, with a decrease of 3.61% in the Malay Peninsula, an increase of 5.59% in Sabah, an increase of 9.87% in Sarawak, and an increase of 6.67% in East Malaysia [2] - The US EPA finalized the 2026 and 2027 RFS annual obligation volumes, with the traditional biofuel production target remaining at 15 billion gallons, and the blending volume of biomass - based diesel increasing by nearly 60% to between 5 and 5.7 billion gallons per year [6] - As of March 28, Brazil's soybean harvest rate was 74.3%, compared with 67.7% last week, 81.4% in the same period last year, and a five - year average of 72.4% [7] - Iran plans to implement stricter access and toll systems for ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz [7] Trend Intensity - Palm oil trend intensity is 1, and soybean oil trend intensity is 0 [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rapeseed meal market is in a short - term volatile and slightly strong pattern, affected by factors such as the soybean meal trend, the improvement of China - Canada trade relations, and the seasonal demand situation. In the medium - term, it is expected to maintain a range - bound pattern [8]. - The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the arrival expectations of Canadian rapeseed imports [11]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Weekly Prompt - Rapeseed meal fluctuates and declines, driven by soybean meal and technical shock adjustment. After China cancels the restrictions on Canadian agricultural product exports, the short - term negative news is exhausted, and the escalation of the Middle East conflict is short - term positive. The spot demand for rapeseed meal is still in the off - season, but the low inventory supports the market. With the good demand expectation for rapeseed meal after the Spring Festival, the market is short - term strong and volatile, affected by soybean meal [8]. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture is in the seasonal off - season, the short - term supply in the spot market is expected to be tight, and the short - term low demand suppresses the market expectation. The export of Canadian rapeseed to China has returned to normal, and the import volume of Canadian rapeseed in China is gradually increasing [10]. - With the visit of the Canadian Prime Minister to China, the China - Canada trade relationship has improved in the short term, the tariffs imposed by both sides are gradually cancelled, and China's import of Canadian rapeseed has resumed. The future development of the China - Canada trade relationship needs to be further clarified [10]. - The global rapeseed production has increased this year, especially the production in Canada is higher than expected [10]. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict is ongoing, and the reduction in Ukrainian rapeseed production and the increase in Russian rapeseed production offset each other. The Middle East tension has further escalated, and there is still a possibility of an increase in global geopolitical conflicts, which supports commodities [10]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Concerns - Bullish factors: Good demand expectation for Chinese rapeseed meal after the Spring Festival; No pressure on the rapeseed meal inventory of oil mills [11]. - Bearish factors: The domestic demand for rapeseed meal is in the short - term off - season; The improvement of China - Canada trade relations and the upcoming resumption of China's import of Canadian rapeseed [11]. - Current main logic: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the arrival expectations of Canadian rapeseed imports [11]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Rapeseed arrival: The import of rapeseed has increased since March, and the import cost has fluctuated slightly [19]. - Oil mill crushing and inventory: The oil mill's rapeseed crushing volume and startup rate are flat and remain at a low level. The rapeseed inventory of oil mills has increased slightly, and the rapeseed meal inventory has rebounded from a low level [21][23]. - Rapeseed meal transaction: Not detailed in the report. - Aquaculture: Aquatic fish prices have declined slightly, and shrimp and shellfish prices have remained stable. The production of Chinese aquatic products, fish, shellfish, and shrimp and crabs is also mentioned, but specific data analysis is not provided [31]. 3.5 Position Data - The short positions of the main players have decreased, and the funds have flowed out, which is bearish [8]. 3.6 Rapeseed Meal Viewpoints and Strategies - Fundamental analysis: Rapeseed meal fluctuates and declines, affected by soybean meal and technical shock adjustment. The short - term negative news of the improvement of China - Canada trade relations is exhausted, and the escalation of the Middle East conflict is short - term positive. The spot demand is in the off - season, but the low inventory supports the market. With the good demand expectation after the Spring Festival, the market is short - term strong and volatile [8]. - Basis: The spot price is 2440, the basis is 17, and the spot price is at a premium to the futures price, which is neutral [8]. - Inventory: The domestic social inventory of rapeseed meal is 39.84 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.55% compared with last week's 41.74 tons, and a year - on - year decrease of 18.02% compared with 48.6 tons in the same period last year, which is bullish [8]. - Market: The price is above the 20 - day moving average and the direction is upward, which is bullish [8]. - Main position: The short positions of the main players have decreased, and the funds have flowed out, which is bearish [8]. - Expectation: Affected by the visit of the Canadian Prime Minister to China and the improvement of China - Canada trade relations, rapeseed meal has bottomed out and rebounded. With the domestic rapeseed meal entering the supply - demand off - season, it will maintain a volatile pattern after the overall negative news is digested. Pay attention to the future development of China - Canada trade relations [8]. - Trading strategies: - Futures: In the short - term, it is in a volatile and slightly strong pattern. For the RM2605 contract, it fluctuates between 2400 and 2600 in the short - term. It is recommended to trade in the range or wait and see [13]. - Option strategy: Sell out - of - the - money put options [13]. 3.7 Technical Analysis - Rapeseed meal is affected by the improvement of China - Canada trade relations, and the negative news is exhausted. It is short - term driven by soybean meal to fluctuate and decline. Future attention should be paid to the arrival of Canadian rapeseed [43]. - The KDJ indicator fluctuates and declines at a high level. The short - term market enters a technical adjustment stage. The indicator at a medium - low level limits the further callback space. Whether it will continue to decline or rise needs further observation [43]. - The MACD fluctuates and declines at a high level, with short - term technical adjustment and the narrowing of the red energy. The future trend needs the guidance of the Canadian rapeseed import policy [43]. - The indicators show that rapeseed meal fluctuates and declines in the short - term and maintains a range - bound pattern in the medium - term, mainly affected by policy changes and the short - term soybean meal trend. The later trend needs further guidance from the policy and soybean meal [43]. 3.8 Next Week's Concerns - Most important: The growth and harvesting weather conditions in South American soybean producing areas; The export of Canadian rapeseed and domestic crushing demand; The arrival and startup of imported soybeans and rapeseed in China [45]. - Second important: The domestic demand for soybean meal and aquaculture; The rapeseed meal inventory of domestic oil mills and downstream procurement [45]. - Third important: Macroeconomic factors and the Israel - Palestine conflict [45].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Palm oil prices are affected by oil price fluctuations and are expected to fluctuate at high levels. The upward space for soybean oil is limited due to weak drivers from the soybean sector [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: Palm oil主力 closed at 9,718 yuan/ton (down 0.80% during the day session) and 9,724 yuan/ton (up 0.06% during the night session). Soybean oil主力 closed at 8,628 yuan/ton (up 0.14% during the day session) and 8,640 yuan/ton (up 0.14% during the night session). Rapeseed oil主力 closed at 9,876 yuan/ton (up 0.22% during the day session) and 9,860 yuan/ton (down 0.16% during the night session). CBOT soybean oil主力 closed at 65.53 cents/pound (up 0.18%) [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: Palm oil主力 trading volume decreased by 83,790 hands to 407,410 hands, and open interest decreased by 11,646 hands to 319,450 hands. Soybean oil主力 trading volume decreased by 25,297 hands to 225,724 hands, and open interest decreased by 398 hands to 594,096 hands. Rapeseed oil主力 trading volume increased by 8,249 hands to 201,004 hands, and open interest increased by 2,919 hands to 237,433 hands [1]. - **Spot Prices**: Palm oil (24 - degree) in Guangdong was priced at 9,750 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan/ton. First - grade soybean oil in Guangdong was priced at 8,940 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton. Fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil in Guangxi was priced at 10,180 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton. The FOB price of Malaysian palm oil was 1,215 dollars/ton, up 15 dollars/ton [1]. - **Basis**: The basis of palm oil in Guangdong was 32 yuan/ton, soybean oil in Guangdong was 312 yuan/ton, and rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 304 yuan/ton [1]. - **Price Spreads**: The spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil futures主力 was 158 yuan/ton, the spread between soybean oil and palm oil futures主力 was - 1,090 yuan/ton, the 5 - 9 spread of palm oil was 60 yuan/ton, the 5 - 9 spread of soybean oil was 80 yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread of rapeseed oil was 133 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - ITS reported that Malaysia's palm oil exports from March 1 - 20, 2026, were 1,191,962 tons, a 38.06% increase compared to the same period last month [2]. - In the 12th week of 2026 (March 14 - 20), the actual soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills was 1.9905 million tons, an increase of 21,100 tons from the previous week and 61,000 tons lower than the estimated volume. The actual operating rate was 54.81% [2]. - China imported 1.49 million tons of US soybeans from January - February 2026, a significant 83.7% decrease compared to the same period last year. Meanwhile, imports from Brazil increased by 82.8% to 6.56 million tons, and imports from Argentina increased from 111,603 tons to 3.27 million tons [3]. - As of the week ending March 15, 2026, Canada's canola exports increased by 157.4% to 292,100 tons compared to the previous week [3]. - The BMD palm oil futures market was closed on March 20 and March 23 due to the Eid al - Fitr holiday and will resume trading on March 24 [3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of palm oil and soybean oil is both 1 [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Corn**: The corn market showed an upward trend with increased positions. After the Spring Festival, the spot price of corn rose, and the futures price also continued to rise. The price in the Northeast region increased slightly, and the price in North China was stable with a slight upward trend. Technically, the futures and spot prices resonated after the festival, and long - position holders could continue to hold and observe. The view is that the market is oscillating strongly [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: CBOT soybeans reached a three - month high on Wednesday. Domestic protein meal followed the upward trend due to rising import costs and the extension of the 25 - day customs inspection policy until May. The strategy is to participate in short - term long positions [1]. - **Oils and Fats**: BMD palm oil closed slightly lower for the fourth consecutive day, following the weakness of the surrounding market. Domestic oils and fats continued to rise, with soybean oil being stronger than rapeseed oil and palm oil. The strategy is to focus on short - term trading [1]. - **Eggs**: The egg futures main contract 2604 oscillated and adjusted, and the spot price stabilized. The demand for school - opening season stocking provided some support, but the short - term supply was abundant, and the fundamentals were likely to remain weak. The short - term market oscillated at a high level [1]. - **Pigs**: The live - hog futures rebounded from a low level. Although the short - term school - opening season stocking might support the price, the probability of a trend - based rebound was low. It is recommended to conduct short - term trading [2]. 3. Summary According to the Directory Research Views - **Corn**: After the Spring Festival, the corn spot price increased, and the futures price continued to rise. The price in the Northeast and North China regions showed an upward trend. The market was not very active in trading, and long - position holders could continue to hold [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: CBOT soybeans reached a high, and domestic protein meal followed the upward trend due to factors such as rising import costs and policy extension. Short - term long - position participation is recommended [1]. - **Oils and Fats**: BMD palm oil declined, while domestic oils and fats rose. The export of Malaysian palm oil decreased, and the price of soybean oil was strong due to the policy. Short - term trading is the main strategy [1]. - **Eggs**: The egg futures oscillated, and the spot price stabilized. The school - opening season stocking supported the demand, but the short - term supply was abundant, and the fundamentals were weak [1]. - **Pigs**: The live - hog futures rebounded from a low level. The short - term school - opening season stocking might support the price, but the probability of a trend - based rebound was low. Short - term trading is recommended [2]. Market Information - **Canada's Oilseed and Wheat Data**: In January 2026, Canada's rapeseed crushing volume decreased by 2.17% month - on - month but increased by 4.24% year - on - year. The production of rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal also had corresponding changes. The 2025/26 market - year Canadian wheat export was faster than the previous year, but the recent weekly export volume decreased due to the priority of rapeseed transportation [3]. - **Inventory and Price Information**: The inventory of corn starch continued to increase. As of February 25, the total inventory of corn starch enterprises in the country was 119.8 million tons, with a weekly increase of 7.16% and a monthly increase of 16.54%. The export reference price of Ukrainian rapeseed increased, and the production might decline. The export forecast of Russian wheat in the 2025/26 and 2026/27 seasons was adjusted [4]. Variety Spreads - **Contract Spreads**: There are charts showing the 5 - 9 spreads of corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and live - hogs [6][8][9][12]. - **Contract Basis**: There are charts showing the basis of corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and live - hogs [15][18][22][23].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - Near - term supply of soybean meal still has a certain gap, but the probability of an extreme shortage situation like last year is relatively small. Near - term soybean meal is expected to fluctuate and strengthen, while long - term contracts have strengthened slightly due to the accelerated implementation of the US biofuel policy. The US biofuel policy may weaken the surplus of US soybeans to some extent, but it cannot provide long - term upward momentum, and the pressure from the bumper harvest of South American soybeans remains high. It is recommended that those with large spot positions consider using price fluctuations to wash the basis, and view the futures market as a wide - range oscillation [2] - The approaching implementation of the US biofuel policy is still the biggest supporting factor for the oil market. In the context of the continuous strengthening of the oil sector, attention should also be paid to the arrival of Canadian rapeseed to ease the supply tension. The oil market will maintain an upward trend before the implementation of the US biofuel policy, but caution should be exercised regarding the upside potential, and the difference between the implementation of the US biofuel policy and expectations will determine the subsequent trend [2] Summary by Related Content Soybean Meal - ANEC estimates that Brazil's soybean exports in January 2026 were 3.23 million tons, an 188% increase from 1.12 million tons in the same period last year, setting a record high for the same period. It is expected that Brazil's soybean exports in 2026 will reach a record 112 million tons. In 2025, Brazil's annual soybean exports were 108.73 million tons, an 11.8% increase from 97.29 million tons in 2024, also exceeding the previous historical peak of 101.3 million tons in 2023 [1] - Mysteel's agricultural product team estimates that in February 2026, the arrival of soybeans at domestic full - sample oil mills will be 77 ships, totaling about 5.005 million tons (with a ship weight of 65,000 tons this month), and this month's arrivals include some reserve rotation soybeans. In addition, based on shipping schedules and preliminary surveys, it is estimated that 4.8 million tons will arrive in March 2026 and 9.5 million tons in April [1] Oils - Informed sources revealed that Chinese crushers have ordered Canadian rapeseed to be shipped in the next few months, and importers have also ordered some rapeseed meal to be shipped from April to June. Traders said that after the tariff reduction, there is a profit of more than $40 per ton of Canadian rapeseed crushed. If the profit remains at this level, China will import more Canadian rapeseed [2] - Former US President Trump stated at a rally in Iowa that he supports legislation aimed at expanding the sales of E15 ethanol gasoline to win the support of key voter groups [2]

Core Viewpoint - The recent threat from U.S. President Trump to impose a 100% tariff on all imports from Canada if Canada engages in a trade agreement with China has escalated tensions between the U.S. and Canada, highlighting the U.S.'s use of tariffs as a tool for geopolitical leverage rather than as an economic instrument [1][3][5]. Group 1: U.S.-Canada Relations - Trump's warning places Canada in a precarious position, potentially doubling the prices of Canadian goods in the U.S. market, which could devastate Canadian exporters [1]. - The U.S. has a history of using threats and tariffs to influence the actions of its allies, as seen in previous instances involving Denmark and Iran [5]. - Canadian Prime Minister Carney's response indicates a desire for trade diversification and a move away from reliance on the U.S., as he encourages citizens to buy domestic products and seeks new trade partnerships [7]. Group 2: China-Canada Cooperation - The recent visit of Prime Minister Carney to China resulted in the signing of the "China-Canada Economic and Trade Cooperation Roadmap," which outlines 28 cooperative measures across various sectors, emphasizing mutual benefit [7][9]. - The negotiation dynamics between Canada and China contrast sharply with the U.S. approach, as both parties are willing to make concessions, indicating a cooperative rather than confrontational relationship [9]. - The roadmap supports a multilateral trade system based on rules, opposing unilateral measures, which aligns with the broader global trade discourse [12]. Group 3: Global Trade Implications - The situation reflects a larger question facing the global trade system: whether to maintain a multilateral trade framework or revert to unilateralism and protectionism [11][12]. - The U.S.'s actions have prompted other nations to reconsider their alliances and the implications of following U.S. policies, as many countries seek to assert their economic independence [12]. - The contrasting approaches of the U.S. and China highlight a growing divide in international relations, with many countries favoring cooperation and mutual respect over coercion and dominance [12].

Core Viewpoint - China has finalized agreements to import up to 10 ships of Canadian canola, which will help alleviate market supply tensions, following Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney's visit to China [1] Group 1: Trade Agreements - During Carney's visit, a preliminary trade agreement was reached where China will lower tariffs on Canadian canola, while Canada will reduce tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles [1] - The canola shipments are expected to be delivered between February and April, with each ship carrying approximately 65,000 tons, totaling around 650,000 tons, which accounts for over 10% of China's total canola imports for 2024 [1] Group 2: Market Impact - The ease of importing Canadian canola into the Chinese market has been noted, with crushing companies already pre-booking these shipments [1] - Canola, also known as rapeseed, is processed into edible oil, and the remaining high-protein meal is widely used as livestock feed [1] Group 3: Government Statements - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce indicated that it will consider Canada's reasonable requests within the framework of rules and will make final decisions based on facts and evidence regarding the canola trade agreement [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article argues that Canada's diplomatic engagement with China is a strategic move for diversification rather than a short-sighted provocation against the U.S. [1][2] Group 1: Strategic Diversification - Canada's approach to deepen cooperation with China is a calculated strategy to mitigate risks associated with U.S. protectionism and unilateralism [2][4] - The shift towards China is not an emotional reaction to U.S. policies but a rational decision based on national interests [2][4] Group 2: Economic Benefits - Canada has reduced tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles to 6.1%, benefiting consumers and promoting green energy transition [3] - The reduction of tariffs on Canadian canola to 15% by China provides significant advantages to Canadian farmers, offering a buffer against market volatility [3] Group 3: Arctic Sovereignty and Cooperation - Discussions on Arctic sovereignty with China are framed as a necessary collaboration to address climate change and resource management, rather than a betrayal of NATO [4] - Canada’s willingness to engage with China in Arctic governance reflects a recognition that global challenges require inclusive dialogue rather than military alliances [4] Group 4: Changing Global Dynamics - The article highlights a shift away from a unipolar world dominated by a single superpower, emphasizing the need for middle powers like Canada to collaborate [5] - Canada's recent actions are portrayed as a bold step towards establishing itself as a resilient core in the global economy, rather than a subordinate to Washington [5]

Group 1: Report's Core View - The overall market shows a pattern of strong oils and weak meals. Near - month soybean meal is expected to fluctuate strongly, while far - month contracts are weak. Oils have downward support and may receive additional upward drivers later [1][2] Group 2: Soybean Meal Market - As of the week ending January 15, 2026, the U.S. soybean export inspection volume was 1,336,684 tons, compared with 989,489 tons in the same period last year. The total U.S. soybean export inspection volume for the 2025/26 season so far is 19,335,069 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 40.2%, reaching 45.1% of the annual export target [1] - The first - quarter arrival estimate in China remains at 17.1 million tons (a year - on - year increase of 3.2 million tons), slightly lower than the three - year average. The second - quarter arrival estimate slightly increases to 36.9 million tons (a year - on - year increase of 2.6 million tons) [1] - The near - month supply has a certain gap, but the probability of an extreme shortage situation like last year is low. The spot rhythm around the Spring Festival is unclear. Near - month soybean meal is expected to fluctuate strongly, while far - month contracts are weak due to the bearish effect of the USDA report. If the South American harvest is good, the main contract may decline further [1] Group 3: Oil Market - The market expects Malaysia's palm oil production in January to decline by 15% - 17%, and exports to increase significantly due to seasonal demand before the Spring Festival and Ramadan in February. If these factors persist until March, the ending inventory may drop significantly [2] - From January 1 - 20, 2026, Malaysia's palm oil yield decreased by 16.49% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.08% month - on - month, and the production decreased by 16.06% month - on - month [2] - A Chinese importer bought a 60,000 - ton cargo of Canadian rapeseed after Canada's Prime Minister's visit to Beijing, which boosts Canadian export prospects and may weaken Australia's sales. The cargo is expected to be shipped after March [2] - Although Indonesia's palm oil B50 plan failed, there are significant buyers below. The crushing cost of rapeseed under the 15% tariff is still high, so the vegetable oil futures have strong support below. The U.S. biofuel policy in early March may bring additional upward drivers to the oil sector [2]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - The market is uncertain about the later-stage state reserve release schedule, and the recent premium transactions of imported soybeans indicate a supply gap and strong short - term demand. Near - month soybean meal is expected to fluctuate strongly, while far - month contracts may weaken due to the bearish effect of the USDA report and could decline further if South American harvest progresses well [1]. - In 2026, palm oil production is predicted to grow 1.0% moderately, but due to weak demand, exports will remain low at 15.1 million tons and ending stocks will stay high at 3.18 million tons. Palm oil prices are expected to be between 4,200 - 4,250 ringgit per ton, with a mild increase in the second half of the year. Palm oil's price advantage, upcoming festivals, and the low - production season will support prices. The purchase of Canadian rapeseed by a Chinese importer may affect Australia's sales. Although the Indonesian palm oil B50 plan has failed and the upside potential is limited, there is significant buying support. The cost of crushing Canadian rapeseed under a 15% tariff is still high, providing strong support for rapeseed oil prices [2]. 3) Summaries by Related Content Soybean Meal - As of January 16, 2026, the soybean harvest progress in Brazil's 2025/26 season was 1.39%, up from 0.53% a week ago, compared to 0.23% last year and 2.38% in 2024, with a five - year average of 1.02% [1]. - The South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ) will bring continuous rainfall to most parts of Brazil in the next few weeks, affecting the harvest and sowing in major production areas until the second half of January [1]. Vegetable Oils - MBSB predicts a 1.0% moderate growth in palm oil production in 2026, with exports at 15.1 million tons and ending stocks at 3.18 million tons. The price is expected to be 4,200 - 4,250 ringgit per ton, with a mild increase in the second half of the year [2]. - A Chinese importer bought a 60,000 - ton Panamax cargo of Canadian rapeseed after the Canadian Prime Minister's visit to Beijing, which may boost Canadian exports and weaken Australia's sales. The cargo is expected to be shipped after March [2]. - The failure of Indonesia's palm oil B50 plan limits the upside potential, but there is significant buying support. The high crushing cost of Canadian rapeseed under a 15% tariff provides strong support for rapeseed oil prices [2].