政策及产地报告均利多， 油脂延续强势，菜油波动较大 正信期货棕榈油周报 20250818 分析师：张翠萍 投资咨询证号：Z0016574 23 主要观点 行情回顾 基本面分析 1目 录 CONTENTS 4 价差跟踪 PPT模板：www.1ppt.com/moban/ PPT素材：www.1ppt.com/sucai/ PPT背景：www.1ppt.com/beijing/ PPT图表：www.1ppt.com/tubiao/ PPT下载：www.1ppt.com/xiazai/ PPT教程： www.1ppt.com/powerpoint/ 资料下载：www.1ppt.com/ziliao/ 范文下载：www.1ppt.com/fanwen/ 试卷下载：www.1ppt.com/shiti/ 教案下载：www.1ppt.com/jiaoan/ PPT论坛：www.1ppt.cn PPT课件：www.1ppt.com/kejian/ 语文课件：www.1ppt.com/kejian/yuw en/ 数学课件：www.1ppt.com/kejian/shuxu e/ 英语课件：www.1ppt.com/keji ...

完整内容查看视频 对美国那边是一路绿灯，连个额度限制都没有。转头看中国呢？不仅设了一堆关税门槛，还专门针对含 中国熔炼浇筑钢材的进口产品，额外加征 25% 的税。这不明摆着是捏软柿子嘛，不敢得罪美国，就拿 中国贸易开刀，想靠牺牲对华关系讨好美国，这种政治投机的心思也太明显了。结果呢，特朗普可没有 给加拿大面子，直接加税！并且还是重税，加拿大嘴上说着要反击，可实际上还是不敢的。而且，中国 可不是任人拿捏的。今年 3 月就先出了手，对加拿大的菜子油、油渣饼加征 100% 关税，水产品和猪肉 也加了。这还没完，8 月 12 日商务部直接发了公告，认定加拿大进口油菜籽存在倾销，从 8 月 14 日 起，所有加拿大公司都得交 75.8% 的保证金。这招一出，等于直接给加拿大油菜籽对华出口设了道高 门槛。 ...

| | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | | 单 位 | 收盘价 (日盘） | 涨跌幅 | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 棕榈油主力 | 元/吨 | 9,362 | 1.56% | 9,414 | 0.56% | | | 豆油主力 | 元/吨 | 8,488 | 0.38% | 8,516 | 0.33% | | | 菜油主力 | 元/吨 | 9,802 | 2.23% | 10,079 | 2.83% | | 期 货 | 马棕主力 | 林吉特/吨 | 4,400 | 0.36% | 4,425 | 0.52% | | | CBOT豆油主力 | 美分/磅 | 53.07 | 0.13% | | | | | | 单 位 | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | | 棕榈油主力 | 手 | 443,030 | -124344 | 270,663 | -29,322 | | | 豆油主力 | 手 | 140,203 | -23,809 | 306,250 | -28,769 | | | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - A commodity research institution estimates Canada's rapeseed production in the 2025/26 season to be 1,800 million tons, with an estimated range of 1,720 - 1,890 million tons, remaining unchanged from the previous estimate. However, the continuous dry conditions in Manitoba need to be closely monitored as they pose a risk to yield potential [1]. - Malaysia has lowered the reference price of crude palm oil for a certain month, resulting in a reduction of the export tax to 8.5%. The reference price for a previous month was RM3,926.59 per ton with a 9.5% tariff, while the current month's reference price is RM3,730.48 per ton [1]. - Malaysia's crude palm oil production from the 1st - 20th of a month decreased by 4.55% month - on - month. The production in the Malay Peninsula increased by 0.25%, while that in Sabah decreased by 13.27%, Sarawak decreased by 4.56%, and East Malaysia decreased by 11.06% [1]. - Malaysia's palm oil product exports from the 1st - 25th of a month reached 1,134,230 tons, a 6.8% increase compared to the same period last month [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Canada Rapeseed - The estimated production of Canadian rapeseed in the 2025/26 season is 1,800 million tons, with an estimated range of 1,720 - 1,890 million tons, unchanged from the previous estimate [1]. - Manitoba has a precipitation gap of about 30 mm in the past two weeks, and the precipitation gap in Saskatchewan and Manitoba is expected to reach 24 mm in the next 10 days, which poses a risk to yield potential [1]. Malaysian Palm Oil - Malaysia has lowered the reference price of crude palm oil, reducing the export tax to 8.5%. The reference price for a certain month is RM3,730.48 per ton [1]. - Malaysia's crude palm oil production from the 1st - 20th of a month decreased by 4.55% month - on - month, with different trends in different regions [1]. - Malaysia's palm oil product exports from the 1st - 25th of a month increased by 6.8% compared to the same period last month [1]. Price Information - The spot prices of soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu from June 19 - 25, 2025, are provided, showing a general downward trend [1].

Core Insights - ICE canola futures are approaching 720 Canadian dollars, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics as Chinese buyers return to the market after a month-long absence [1] - The resumption of canola exports to China from Canada suggests a possible turning point in demand for Canadian canola [1] Group 1 - The price of ICE canola futures nearing 720 CAD reflects increased market activity and interest [1] - The return of Chinese buyers to the Canadian canola market may signal a recovery in demand [1] - The recent developments in canola exports to China could indicate a broader trend in agricultural commodity markets [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that despite a significant increase of 1 million tons in Canadian canola seed exports, the inventory levels remain unchanged [1] Group 2 - The article provides an overview of agricultural supply and demand data, indicating a need for further analysis on the factors affecting inventory levels despite rising export volumes [1]