农产品日报（2026 年 2 月 26 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周三，玉米增仓上行，玉米主力合约持仓增加 8 万余手，期价延续上行。春节过 | | | | 后，玉米现货补涨。因节后玉米期货表现较强，对现货市场有一定的影响，北港 | | | | 收购价格略高于节前。东北产区玉米价格在北港上涨以及运费下调的情况下也出 | | | | 现小幅度的上涨，但鉴于节后刚开市，市场购销暂不活跃。 华北地区玉米价格 | | | 玉米 | 稳中偏强运行。部分企业延续假期的上涨趋势，继续上调 10 元/吨。基层粮点陆 | 震荡偏强 | | | 续开工收购，但收购量恢复需要一定时间，基层购销活跃度不高，但部分贸易商 | | | | 顺价收购。技术上，节后玉米市场期现共振，期价上行，多头持仓可继续持有观 | | | | 望。 | | | | | 震荡 | | | 周三，CBOT 大豆触及三个月新高，因市场对美国对中国销售的预期升温。中方 对特朗普最新关税举措的克制回应以及中国假期结束，维持了市场对需求增长的 | | | | 预期。另外，美国环保署将于周三向 ...

油粕日报：美国 45Z 生物燃料政策加快落地 发布日期：2026 年 1 月 29 日 豆粕：ANEC：2026 年 1 月份巴西大豆出口量估计为 323 万吨，比去年同期 的 112 万吨增长 188%，创下历史同期最高纪录。预计 2026 年巴西大豆出口量将 达到创纪录的 1.12 亿吨。2025 年全年巴西大豆出口量为 1.0873 亿吨，较 2024 年的 9729 万吨增长 11.8%，也超过了 2023 年的前历史峰值 1.013 亿吨。 Mysteel 农产品团队预估，2026 年 2 月份国内全样本油厂大豆到港 77 船， 共计约 500.50 万吨（本月船重按 6.5 万吨计），本月到港包含部分储备轮换豆。 此外，根据船期及调研初步预估，2026 年 3 月预计 480 万吨，4 月 950 万吨。 近月供应仍然存在一定缺口，但是相对去年缺货的极端情况预估发生概率偏 小，对于春节前后现货节奏仍然不清晰，近月豆粕预估震荡偏强运行，而远月合 约因为美国生物燃料政策加快落地而略微走强，美国生物燃料政策可能某种程度 弱化美豆的过剩，但是无法提供长期的向上驱动，南美大豆丰产带来的压力仍然 较大。建议现 ...

这并不是美国第一次这么干。在格陵兰岛的争议中，美国曾威胁过丹麦、德国等欧洲国家；更早前，为 了制裁伊朗，美国威胁要对所有与伊朗有贸易往来的国家加征25%的惩罚性关税。在华盛顿的眼里，关 税早已不再是调节贸易的经济工具，而是一个用来胁迫他国、实现自己地缘政治目标的大棒。无论是 谁，只要不服从，都会被狠狠打压，哪怕是自己的盟友也不例外。 特朗普这番近乎最后通牒的威胁，把本来亲密的盟友加拿大直接架在了火上。可是，仅仅两天后，在 2026年1月26日，中国外交部发言人郭嘉昆在北京蓝厅的回应中，却展现了别样的理性与清醒：中国主 张各国应以共赢而非零和的理念、合作而非对抗的方式处理国与国之间的关系。没有激烈的指责，也没 有强硬的威胁，就这一句话，仿佛给美国的霸道做了一个鲜明的对比，也说出了很多国家的心声。美国 这波操作，真的是把霸权主义四个字写在了脸上。所谓的关税威胁，实质上就是长臂管辖的升级版—— 你是我的盟友，所以你和谁做生意、发展什么关系都得听我的，否则，我就用关税来收拾你。这种逻辑 不仅无视了加拿大作为一个主权国家的自主选择权，还把盟友这两个字，变成了附属的代名词。 最近，北美的政坛和经贸圈被一则狠通知搅得鸡犬不 ...

在卡尼访华期间，中加两国达成了一项初步贸易协议：中国将降低对加拿大油菜籽征收的关税，作为交 换，加拿大则将削减对中国电动汽车加征的关税。 环球时报消息，1月27日，两名贸易消息人士向路透社透露，在加拿大总理马克·卡尼本月早些时候访问 中国之后，中国进口商已敲定多达10船加拿大油菜籽的采购协议。此举有助于缓解市场供应紧张局面。 据两位直接了解交易情况的贸易商表示，这批加拿大油菜籽预计将于2月至4月间发货，每船载重约6.5 万吨。报道称，10船总计约65万吨的油菜籽，相当于中国2024年全年油菜籽进口量的10%以上。 "现在把加拿大油菜籽运进中国市场很容易，压榨企业已经提前预订了这些货，"一位供职于国际农业公 司的消息人士表示。 原标题：外媒爆料：中国在加下大单 编辑：黄灵 责编：吴光亮 审核：廖异 油菜籽（又称芥花籽）经压榨可生产食用油等产品，压榨后留下的高蛋白菜粕则广泛用作牲畜饲料。 1月22日，针对中国和加拿大就油菜籽问题达成贸易协议，商务部新闻发言人何咏前称，中方将在规则 框架内充分考虑加方的合理诉求，基于事实和证据作出最终裁决。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article argues that Canada's diplomatic engagement with China is a strategic move for diversification rather than a short-sighted provocation against the U.S. [1][2] Group 1: Strategic Diversification - Canada's approach to deepen cooperation with China is a calculated strategy to mitigate risks associated with U.S. protectionism and unilateralism [2][4] - The shift towards China is not an emotional reaction to U.S. policies but a rational decision based on national interests [2][4] Group 2: Economic Benefits - Canada has reduced tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles to 6.1%, benefiting consumers and promoting green energy transition [3] - The reduction of tariffs on Canadian canola to 15% by China provides significant advantages to Canadian farmers, offering a buffer against market volatility [3] Group 3: Arctic Sovereignty and Cooperation - Discussions on Arctic sovereignty with China are framed as a necessary collaboration to address climate change and resource management, rather than a betrayal of NATO [4] - Canada’s willingness to engage with China in Arctic governance reflects a recognition that global challenges require inclusive dialogue rather than military alliances [4] Group 4: Changing Global Dynamics - The article highlights a shift away from a unipolar world dominated by a single superpower, emphasizing the need for middle powers like Canada to collaborate [5] - Canada's recent actions are portrayed as a bold step towards establishing itself as a resilient core in the global economy, rather than a subordinate to Washington [5]

Group 1: Report's Core View - The overall market shows a pattern of strong oils and weak meals. Near - month soybean meal is expected to fluctuate strongly, while far - month contracts are weak. Oils have downward support and may receive additional upward drivers later [1][2] Group 2: Soybean Meal Market - As of the week ending January 15, 2026, the U.S. soybean export inspection volume was 1,336,684 tons, compared with 989,489 tons in the same period last year. The total U.S. soybean export inspection volume for the 2025/26 season so far is 19,335,069 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 40.2%, reaching 45.1% of the annual export target [1] - The first - quarter arrival estimate in China remains at 17.1 million tons (a year - on - year increase of 3.2 million tons), slightly lower than the three - year average. The second - quarter arrival estimate slightly increases to 36.9 million tons (a year - on - year increase of 2.6 million tons) [1] - The near - month supply has a certain gap, but the probability of an extreme shortage situation like last year is low. The spot rhythm around the Spring Festival is unclear. Near - month soybean meal is expected to fluctuate strongly, while far - month contracts are weak due to the bearish effect of the USDA report. If the South American harvest is good, the main contract may decline further [1] Group 3: Oil Market - The market expects Malaysia's palm oil production in January to decline by 15% - 17%, and exports to increase significantly due to seasonal demand before the Spring Festival and Ramadan in February. If these factors persist until March, the ending inventory may drop significantly [2] - From January 1 - 20, 2026, Malaysia's palm oil yield decreased by 16.49% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.08% month - on - month, and the production decreased by 16.06% month - on - month [2] - A Chinese importer bought a 60,000 - ton cargo of Canadian rapeseed after Canada's Prime Minister's visit to Beijing, which boosts Canadian export prospects and may weaken Australia's sales. The cargo is expected to be shipped after March [2] - Although Indonesia's palm oil B50 plan failed, there are significant buyers below. The crushing cost of rapeseed under the 15% tariff is still high, so the vegetable oil futures have strong support below. The U.S. biofuel policy in early March may bring additional upward drivers to the oil sector [2]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - The market is uncertain about the later-stage state reserve release schedule, and the recent premium transactions of imported soybeans indicate a supply gap and strong short - term demand. Near - month soybean meal is expected to fluctuate strongly, while far - month contracts may weaken due to the bearish effect of the USDA report and could decline further if South American harvest progresses well [1]. - In 2026, palm oil production is predicted to grow 1.0% moderately, but due to weak demand, exports will remain low at 15.1 million tons and ending stocks will stay high at 3.18 million tons. Palm oil prices are expected to be between 4,200 - 4,250 ringgit per ton, with a mild increase in the second half of the year. Palm oil's price advantage, upcoming festivals, and the low - production season will support prices. The purchase of Canadian rapeseed by a Chinese importer may affect Australia's sales. Although the Indonesian palm oil B50 plan has failed and the upside potential is limited, there is significant buying support. The cost of crushing Canadian rapeseed under a 15% tariff is still high, providing strong support for rapeseed oil prices [2]. 3) Summaries by Related Content Soybean Meal - As of January 16, 2026, the soybean harvest progress in Brazil's 2025/26 season was 1.39%, up from 0.53% a week ago, compared to 0.23% last year and 2.38% in 2024, with a five - year average of 1.02% [1]. - The South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ) will bring continuous rainfall to most parts of Brazil in the next few weeks, affecting the harvest and sowing in major production areas until the second half of January [1]. Vegetable Oils - MBSB predicts a 1.0% moderate growth in palm oil production in 2026, with exports at 15.1 million tons and ending stocks at 3.18 million tons. The price is expected to be 4,200 - 4,250 ringgit per ton, with a mild increase in the second half of the year [2]. - A Chinese importer bought a 60,000 - ton Panamax cargo of Canadian rapeseed after the Canadian Prime Minister's visit to Beijing, which may boost Canadian exports and weaken Australia's sales. The cargo is expected to be shipped after March [2]. - The failure of Indonesia's palm oil B50 plan limits the upside potential, but there is significant buying support. The high crushing cost of Canadian rapeseed under a 15% tariff provides strong support for rapeseed oil prices [2].

Core Viewpoint - A Chinese importer has purchased approximately 60,000 tons of Canadian canola seeds, marking the first transaction since October of the previous year, following Canadian Prime Minister Carney's visit to China [1][4]. Group 1: Trade Developments - The deal is expected to be shipped on a Panamax bulk carrier after March, coinciding with the anticipated reduction of tariffs on Canadian canola seeds [1]. - Following the visit, it is reported that the comprehensive tariff on Canadian canola seeds will be reduced to about 15% by March [4]. - The Canadian government anticipates that the value of canola seed exports to China will reach nearly CAD 5 billion (approximately RMB 25.77 billion) in 2024, although this figure is expected to decline to less than half by 2025 due to trade tensions [4]. Group 2: Market Reactions - The return of Chinese buyers to the Canadian market has led to a 2.4% drop in canola meal futures prices on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, reaching a new low in over a year, indicating market expectations of increased supply [1]. - The Australian canola seeds have filled the market gap left by Canada, creating uncertainty for Australian exporters as Canadian canola returns [2]. Group 3: Industry Perspectives - The Canadian agriculture and food trade alliance (CAFTA) has welcomed the recent developments, viewing them as a significant step towards restoring stability in bilateral trade relations with China [5]. - Industry leaders express optimism that improved market access to China will directly influence Canadian farmers' planting decisions and long-term investments [5]. - The Canadian Canola Council and the Canadian Canola Growers Association view the agreement as a milestone and are hopeful for the complete restoration of canola seed trade [6].

Core Insights - A Chinese importer has purchased approximately 60,000 tons of Canadian canola seeds, marking the first transaction since October of the previous year, following Canadian Prime Minister Carney's visit to China [1][4] - The deal is expected to lead to a reduction in tariffs on Canadian canola seeds to about 15% by March, with adjustments to anti-dumping measures also anticipated [4][5] - The return of Chinese buyers to the Canadian market has caused a 2.4% drop in canola meal futures prices on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, reflecting expectations of increased supply [1] Group 1: Trade Developments - The recent purchase of Canadian canola seeds is seen as a strategic move following the anticipated tariff reductions, with industry experts suggesting that early procurement is wise [1] - The Canadian government is optimistic about restoring trade volumes and creating more opportunities for Canadian farmers, particularly in the canola sector [5][6] - The Canadian Agricultural Food Trade Alliance (CAFTA) has expressed support for the government's engagement with China, emphasizing the need for a stable trade environment to boost exports [5] Group 2: Market Impact - The import structure in China is expected to adjust with the return of Canadian canola seeds, potentially affecting Australian canola seed exports that filled the gap during the absence of Canadian imports [2] - The value of Canadian canola seed exports to China is projected to be nearly CAD 5 billion (approximately RMB 257.7 billion) in 2024, although this figure may decline to less than half by 2025 due to trade tensions [4] - The agreement between China and Canada is viewed as a significant milestone, with industry leaders hopeful for further progress in market access and tariff reductions [6]

Core Viewpoint - The recent agreement between Canada and China marks a significant shift in Canada's foreign policy, moving away from its traditional reliance on the United States and seeking to establish a more autonomous economic relationship with China [1][10][12]. Group 1: Agreement Details - Canada and China have reached a preliminary agreement allowing 49,000 Chinese electric vehicles to enter the Canadian market at a 6.1% tariff rate, while China will reduce tariffs on Canadian canola seeds [1][7]. - Starting from March until at least the end of the year, Canadian products such as canola meal, lobster, crab, and peas will no longer face Chinese tariffs [1][7]. Group 2: Economic Implications - The Canadian automotive industry heavily relies on the U.S., with approximately 80% of its parts and vehicle sales dependent on exports to the U.S., contributing over 5% to Canada's GDP and providing around 2 million jobs [7]. - By opening its market to Chinese electric vehicles, Canada is strategically countering U.S. protectionist policies and seeking to diversify its economic partnerships [7][10]. Group 3: Political Context - The agreement has caught U.S. President Trump off guard, as he previously asserted that the U.S. does not need Canadian products and threatened tariffs on Canadian automotive exports [5][10]. - Canada's decision to engage with China reflects a broader strategy to reduce its economic dependence on the U.S. and to assert its own strategic autonomy in the face of U.S. pressures [10][12]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The compatibility of North American charging standards with China's national standards may facilitate the entry of Chinese electric vehicles into the North American market through Canada [8]. - This agreement could serve as a model for other countries looking to navigate the complexities of global trade and reduce reliance on U.S. dominance, potentially reshaping the global electric vehicle and agricultural trade landscape [12].