1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - For soybean meal, the upside space is limited, with pressure at the 3200 price level for the m2601 contract. Abroad, the US government shutdown persists, lacking data guidance, and the market focuses on Sino-US policy agreements and the return of US soybean orders. Domestically, near - term soybean and soybean meal supplies are relatively sufficient, but the supply pressure is expected to ease. The cost - end support for soybean meal is strong, and attention should be paid to Sino - US tariff policies and the growth of South American soybeans [3]. - For rapeseed meal, the upside space is limited, with pressure at the 2500 price level for the RM601 contract. Globally, the 2025/26 rapeseed supply - demand pattern is loose, suppressing the price. Domestically, the anti - dumping preliminary ruling on Canadian rapeseed restricts imports, and downstream aquaculture is in the off - season. The supply is expected to tighten, but demand is also weak. In the long - term, the global supply - demand situation will suppress the price, and in the short - term, it will stabilize with the rebound of soybean meal. Attention should be paid to inventory reduction and Sino - Canadian trade relations [3]. - For different participants: Traders with inventory can hedge against price drops by short - selling a small proportion; those seeking to build inventory can hedge on the futures or options market to prevent sudden price increases. Feed mills can also take similar hedging measures [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 US Soybean Supply and Demand - The market expects a downward adjustment in US soybean yield in the upcoming USDA report, which may tighten the fundamentals and support the price. The price has been oscillating at a high level between 1100 - 1160 cents/bu. Analysts' average estimate of the 2025/26 yield is 32.85 bu/acre, a decrease from the September estimate. The export and ending inventory are expected to be adjusted downward. The current US soybean has a cost advantage over Brazilian soybeans, but there is still pressure on further price increases without large - scale purchases from China [16][17]. - As of the week ending November 7, 2025, the US soybean crushing profit was $2.02/bu, a 6.40% week - on - week decrease and a 35.87% year - on - year decrease. As of November 6, the US soybean export inspection volume was 1.0886 million tons, in line with expectations. The cumulative export inspection volume since the beginning of the crop year was 8.89 million tons, lower than the previous year [18]. 3.2 South American Soybean Supply and Demand - Brazilian soybean sowing is more than half - completed, but the progress is behind last year due to local rainfall. The sowing in Argentina has started. China's procurement supports the Brazilian soybean premium, which remains oscillating. It is necessary to pay attention to future weather conditions and China's procurement [26][27]. - As of November 8, the Brazilian soybean sowing rate was 38.4%, lower than last year's 66.1% and the five - year average of 57%. Anec expects Brazilian soybean exports in November to reach 4.26 million tons and soybean meal exports to reach 2.47 million tons [27]. 3.3 Rapeseed Supply and Demand - The international rapeseed price has stabilized and rebounded due to Canada's biofuel production incentive plan and the rebound of oilseed soybean prices. The 2025/26 global rapeseed production is expected to increase by 5.23 million tons, with an increase in consumption demand of 2.06%. The trade volume may decline due to trade policies, and the inventory and stock - to - use ratio are increasing [52][53]. - As of November 2, Canadian rapeseed exports increased by 21.2% week - on - week to 188,400 tons. The cumulative exports from August 1 to November 2 were 1.4233 million tons, a 54.1% decrease from the previous year. The commercial inventory was 1.3187 million tons [53]. 3.4 Domestic Meal Supply and Demand - The soybean meal futures continued to oscillate. Although the Sino - US trade policy has changed, the cost of US soybeans is still higher, and the near - term supply is loose, suppressing the upward space. However, the overall import cost increase provides strong support for the price [63][64]. - In October 2025, China imported 3.932 million tons of soybeans, a decrease of 3.387 million tons from September and a 17.25% increase from October 2024. The cumulative import from January to October was 95.682 million tons, a 6.39% increase year - on - year [64]. - As of November 7, the actual soybean crushing volume of 125 domestic oil mills was 1.8057 million tons, with an operating rate of 49.67%. It is expected to reach 2.1579 million tons and 59.36% in the 46th week (November 8 - 14) [86]. - The rapeseed crushing in coastal areas has basically stopped, with a crushing volume of 0 tons and an operating rate of 0% this week and next week [87]. - As of November 7, the soybean inventory of 125 domestic oil mills was 7.6195 million tons, a 7.20% increase from last week and a 35.97% increase year - on - year. The rapeseed inventory was 0 tons, and the rapeseed meal inventory continued to decline [101]. - As of November 13, the total soybean meal transaction was 606,340 tons, a week - on - week increase of 221,100 tons. The daily average transaction was 172,700 tons, a 43.35% increase. The total soybean meal pick - up was 900,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 20,500 tons [119]. 3.5 Basis and Spread - The coastal soybean meal spot price ranged from 3010 - 3050 yuan/ton this week, with mixed price changes compared to last week. The national weekly average price was 3080 yuan/ton, a decrease from the previous week. The average basis in coastal markets was between - 21 and - 61 yuan/ton, with mixed changes compared to the previous week. As of November 14, the basis of the January soybean meal contract in Rizhao was - 33 yuan/ton, and that of the January rapeseed meal contract in Dongguan was 128 yuan/ton [137].

【粕类周报20251114】报告数据预期偏利多，内外盘走势震荡偏 H 日期: 2025-11-14 ZHESHANG FUTURES 【粕类周报20251114】报告数据预期偏利多，内外盘走势震荡偏强 | 核心观点 2025-11-14 | 核心观点 | 2025-11-14 | | --- | --- | --- | | ▼ 观点： 豆粕 上方空间有限，在3200价位存在压力 ● 合约: m2601 | ♥ 观点： 菜籽粕 上方空间有限，在2500价位存在压力 * 合约: RM601 | | | # 逻辑： 国外方面，美政府停摆持续，基本面缺乏报告等数据指引，市场关注仍将集中在中美政策协议 | ® 逻辑: 国外方面,2025/26年度全球荣籽供需格局宽松,压制菜籽价格重心,关注后续国际贸易政策变动 | | | 落地帶来的美豆订单回归。短期关注美豆1100美分/蒲附近压力。若后续美豆销售大幅改善预计将支撑价格 | 指引。国内方面，加莱籽反倾销初裁使其进口面临较高保证金要求，叠加加菜粕关税限制，菜粕后续供应预期 | | | 讲一步靠近新作相植成本区间 | 持续收紧。但下游水产寿殖逐步进入浴季，且豆菜箱加货价差低 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The rapeseed meal market lacks clear guidance and follows the soybean meal to oscillate and rebound. It is currently in an interval oscillation pattern, affected by factors such as the final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed and the improvement rumors of China - Canada trade relations [8]. - The short - term trading strategy for rapeseed meal futures is to oscillate with a slight upward trend. For the RM2601 contract, it oscillates around 2400 in the short term, and short - term trading or waiting and seeing is recommended. The option strategy is to sell out - of - the - money put options [12][13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Prompt - The rapeseed meal oscillates and rebounds, driven by soybean meal and in a technical oscillation adjustment. The market returns to oscillation, waiting for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. The spot demand peak season has passed, but the low inventory supports the market. Due to uncertainties in China - Canada trade negotiations, the market will maintain an interval oscillation in the short term, affected by soybean meal [8]. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the off - season after the long holiday. The spot market supply is expected to be tight in the short term, and the decreasing demand suppresses the market expectation. Canadian rapeseed has entered the harvesting stage, but China - Canada trade issues have reduced the short - term export and domestic supply expectations. - China's preliminary anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports has been established, and a 75.8% import deposit has been imposed. The final ruling is still uncertain, depending on the further development of China - Canada trade relations. - Global rapeseed production has increased this year, especially in Canada where the output is higher than expected. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues. The reduction in Ukrainian rapeseed production and the increase in Russian rapeseed production offset each other. Global geopolitical conflicts may still rise, supporting commodity prices [10]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - **Bullish factors**: China's preliminary anti - dumping determination on Canadian rapeseed imports and the low inventory pressure of oil mills' rapeseed meal. - **Bearish factors**: The concentrated listing of domestic rapeseed and the uncertainty of the final anti - dumping result on Canadian rapeseed imports, with a small probability of reconciliation. - **Main logic**: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [11]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Supply - demand balance sheets**: The supply - demand balance sheets of domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal from 2014 to 2023 are provided, showing changes in harvest area, inventory, output, consumption, etc. - **Import and production situation**: There is no ship schedule forecast for imported rapeseed in November, and the import cost is affected by tariffs. The oil mill's rapeseed crushing volume remains low, and the rapeseed and rapeseed meal inventories continue to decline. - **Aquaculture situation**: Aquatic fish prices have slightly declined, while shrimp and shellfish prices remain stable. The rapeseed meal futures have rebounded after reaching the bottom, the spot price is relatively stable, and the spot premium fluctuates slightly. The price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuates slightly, and the price difference of the 2601 contract has rebounded from a low level [16][18][19]. 3.5 Technical Analysis - The rapeseed meal rebounds with the soybean meal and returns to an interval oscillation pattern due to the preliminary anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. The future China - Canada trade relationship is uncertain, affecting the market. - The KDJ indicator rebounds from a low level. It is in a short - term technical rebound stage, but the high - level indicator limits the rebound height. - The MACD rebounds from a low level, and the green energy turns red. The subsequent upward trend depends on the soybean meal and rapeseed import policies. Overall, the rapeseed meal oscillates and rebounds in the short term and maintains an interval oscillation in the medium term, mainly driven by policy changes and short - term soybean meal trends [42]. 3.6 Next Week's Focus - **Most important**: The harvesting weather in the US soybean - producing areas, the export of Canadian rapeseed and domestic crushing demand, and the arrival and startup of imported soybeans and rapeseed in China. - **Second important**: Domestic soybean meal and aquaculture demand, and the rapeseed meal inventory of domestic oil mills and downstream procurement. - **Less important**: Macroeconomic factors and the Israel - Palestine conflict [44].

Group 1 - Domestic futures market for meal products saw a collective rise, with rapeseed meal futures prices experiencing a rapid increase, peaking at 2399 yuan/ton, and closing at 2396 yuan/ton, up 2.39% [1] - Import prices for rapeseed at domestic ports showed a slight decrease, with Canadian rapeseed (November shipment) C&F price at 509 USD/ton, down 1 USD/ton from the previous trading day [2] - The Canadian rapeseed futures market on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) saw a mild increase, with the benchmark contract rising by 0.24%, influenced by expectations of a potential trade agreement between China and the U.S. and positive developments in China-Canada trade relations [2] Group 2 - Nanhua Futures indicated that with limited raw material arrivals in the future, inventories will remain seasonally low, and the market will primarily follow soybean meal trends, with a focus on subsequent warehouse receipt changes [2] - Dayue Futures noted that rapeseed meal is experiencing a rebound due to technical adjustments and the influence of soybean meal, while the market awaits the final ruling on anti-dumping measures for Canadian rapeseed imports [3] - The market is currently in a state of fluctuation, influenced by the ongoing negotiations between China and Canada, with a lack of clear direction affecting price stability [3]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 菜粕缺乏指引，跟随豆粕震荡 （菜粕周报10.13-10.17） 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 1 每周提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸菜粕观点和策略 CONTENTS 目 录 1.基本面：菜粕探底回升，豆粕带动和技术性震荡整理，市场回归震荡等待加拿大油菜籽进 口反倾销裁定尚待最终结果。菜粕现货需求短期维持旺季，库存维持低位支撑盘面，但 国庆后菜粕需求逐渐进入淡季和中加贸易磋商仍变数，盘面短期缺乏指引影响维持震荡。 中性 2.基差：现货2460，基差110，升水期货。偏多 3.库存：菜粕库存1.75万吨，上周1.8万吨，周环比减少2.78%，去年同期2.2万吨，同比减 少20.45%。偏多 4.盘面：价格在20日均线下方且方向向下。偏空 5.主 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views - Palm oil: The downside space is limited, with support at the [8700] price level. The p2601 contract is expected to be mainly oscillating strongly in the medium - long term, considering the tight supply situation in Southeast Asia and biodiesel policy support. However, short - term fluctuations are significant due to trade and biodiesel news [3]. - Soybean oil: The downside space is limited, with support at the [7700] price level. The y2601 contract is expected to follow other oils in a relatively strong oscillation. The supply is expected to turn tight at the end of the fourth quarter in China, affected by factors such as the decline in soybean arrivals and uncertain Sino - US trade relations [3]. - Rapeseed oil: The downside space is limited, with support at the [9600] price level. The Ol601 contract is expected to be mainly oscillating strongly. The 2024/25 global rapeseed inventory pressure is limited, and the 2025/26 production is expected to recover, which may suppress the price. Attention should be paid to the production realization in major producing countries [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Palm Oil - **Market Performance**: Since the holiday, BMD crude palm oil has been oscillating strongly, with a slight upward shift in the center of gravity. However, on Friday, the MPOB report showed higher - than - expected inventory, and the overall oil price declined. The tariff war and the sharp drop in international crude oil are expected to lead to a short - term weakening of palm oil [13][14]. - **Supply and Demand in Malaysia**: In September 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 0.73% month - on - month, imports increased by 33.95% month - on - month, exports increased by 7.69% month - on - month, and the end - of - month inventory increased by 7.2% month - on - month. From October 1 - 10, the export volume increased compared with the same period in September [15]. - **Supply and Demand in Indonesia**: As of July, Indonesia's inventory remained at a historical low. The production in July was 5.6 million tons, the export volume was 3.007 million tons, and the end - of - month inventory was 2.57 million tons. The export continued to grow faster than the production, and the inventory remained at a historical low. The reference price of crude palm oil in October was set at $983.61 per ton, and the export tax remained at $124 per ton. The implementation of the B0 policy in the first half of the year was relatively good, and the government is accelerating the implementation of the B50 policy [15]. - **Indian Market**: India's palm oil imports decreased significantly in January - April, and the inventory reached a low level. From May to August, imports continued to grow, and it is expected to remain at a high level in September to support the exports of Indonesia and Malaysia. The cost - performance of international soybean oil is slightly lower than that of palm oil, but the subsequent imports are still expected to remain at a relatively high level [32]. 3.2 Soybean and Soybean Oil - **US Market**: Recently, CBOT soybean futures first rose and then fell. The supply pressure of US soybeans is emerging as they enter the harvest season, but the reduction in planting area and the increase in consumption have tightened the supply. The US EPA's biofuel policy is unclear, which has increased market uncertainty. The future weather in the main soybean - producing states in the US may affect the harvest [50][51][53]. - **South American Market**: According to the USDA's September forecast for the 2025/26 season, Brazil's soybean production will increase to 175 million tons, and Argentina's will be 48.5 million tons. Brazil's export peak has passed, and it is expected that the premium of Brazilian soybeans will remain strong. Argentina has restored the export tax on soybeans, and it is expected that the premium in South America will also remain strong [76]. - **Domestic Market**: In the short term, the supply of domestic soybeans and soybean oil is relatively loose, but it is expected to turn tight at the end of the fourth quarter. The 40th week (September 27 - October 3) of soybean oil production was 833,600 tons, and the 41st week is expected to be 257,800 tons. The trading volume has decreased significantly [109][112]. 3.3 Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil - **Global Market**: In the 2024/25 season, the global rapeseed supply tightened marginally, and the carry - over inventory decreased significantly. In the 2025/26 season, the USDA expects a recovery in production, and the supply - demand contradiction is expected to be limited. The Chinese government has imposed a 75.8% deposit on Canadian rapeseed imports, and the Canadian government is trying to negotiate [85]. - **Domestic Market**: The domestic rapeseed oil inventory is at a five - year high, but the subsequent rapeseed purchases are expected to decline, and the supply in the far - month is expected to tighten. As of October 3, the coastal rapeseed oil production was 8,200 tons, and the delivery volume was 0 tons. With the decrease in rapeseed crushing, the rapeseed oil production may decline significantly [110][112]. 3.4 Domestic Oils - **Market Performance**: After the holiday, the oils first rose and then fell, and the center of gravity remained basically unchanged. The short - term oils are expected to be weak, and the meal may perform better than the oils. In the medium - long term, palm oil and rapeseed oil are expected to be oscillating strongly, and soybean oil will follow other oils [108][109][110]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply of palm oil in China is relatively loose, the supply of soybean oil is expected to turn tight at the end of the fourth quarter, and the supply of rapeseed oil is expected to tighten in the far - month. The trading volume of palm oil has increased slightly, the trading volume of soybean oil has decreased significantly, and the production of rapeseed oil may decline significantly [109][110][112].

Group 1 - The Premier of Manitoba, Genuis, has requested the Canadian federal government to eliminate the 100% tariff on Chinese electric vehicles, citing significant negative impacts on bilateral trade and the western regions of Canada [1] - Genuis highlighted that the current state of Canada-China relations is at a "critical moment" and urged the government to seize the opportunity to improve trade ties [1] - The province of Saskatchewan has also expressed similar sentiments, with Premier Moe advocating for the removal of tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles [1] Group 2 - Data indicates that Saskatchewan's canola seed exports to China fell by 76% year-on-year in August, reflecting the adverse effects of the tariffs [1] - The retaliatory measures from China have led to a substantial decline in canola seed prices and have severely impacted the pork production industry in Canada [1]

Core Viewpoint - Canada has announced a 100% tariff on electric vehicles from China and a 25% tariff on Chinese steel and aluminum products, raising questions about the rationale behind these actions [1][3][5] Group 1: Trade Policies and Implications - The tariffs imposed by Canada are seen as discriminatory and violate the 1994 GATT agreement, as there is no substantial evidence that Chinese products have harmed the Canadian market [3][5] - The concept of "trade diversion" mentioned by Canada appears to be overstretched and used to justify its actions, which seem to align closely with U.S. policies against China [5][7] - The close cooperation between Canada and the U.S. may provide Canada with some support, but it raises concerns about whether the U.S. will uphold its commitments when interests conflict [7] Group 2: Impact on Chinese Electric Vehicles - Chinese electric vehicles have gained significant market share due to their high cost-performance ratio and superior performance, posing a challenge to European brands that are increasing in price [9][21] - The new tariffs will likely increase the prices of Chinese electric vehicles, potentially reducing their competitiveness in the market, although consumer willingness to pay higher prices remains uncertain [9][11] - China is actively working to adjust its supply chain to lower costs, but this is a long-term challenge that may be hindered by Canada's tariff policies [11][20] Group 3: China's Response - China plans to counteract Canada's tariffs through the WTO dispute resolution mechanism and has initiated anti-discrimination investigations against Canada [13][18] - The measures taken by China are compliant with international rules and aim to protect its interests against what is perceived as an unfounded attack by Canada [20] - The rapid growth of Chinese electric vehicles in the global market is a testament to their development, despite facing jealousy and pushback from other countries [21][23] Group 4: Global Supply Chain Considerations - Canada's tariff policy is expected to have negative implications not only for China but also for the stability of the global supply chain [23] - The attempt to suppress China's technological progress and market share through tariffs is viewed as counterproductive in an increasingly interconnected global economy [23]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The export sales of US soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil are expected to increase, with different expected net increases in different fiscal years [1]. - Malaysia's palm oil exports from August 1 - 25, 2025, increased by 36.41% compared to the same period last month [1]. - The average estimated yield of Canadian rapeseed is 20.3 million tons, with a forecast range of 19 - 21.2 million tons [1]. - Australia's rapeseed yield this year is expected to be between 5.8 - 7.2 million tons [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Overnight Market Information - **US Exports**: Before the USDA's weekly export sales report (scheduled for 20:30 Beijing time on Thursday), a survey of industry analysts showed that as of the week ending August 21, US soybean export sales are expected to net increase by 25 - 105 tons, with a net decrease of 20 tons to a net increase of 5 tons in the 2024 - 2025 fiscal year and a net increase of 45 - 100 tons in the 2025 - 2026 fiscal year. US soybean meal export sales are expected to net increase by 12.5 - 45 tons, with 2.5 - 15 tons in the 2024 - 2025 fiscal year and 10 - 30 tons in the 2025 - 2026 fiscal year. US soybean oil export sales are expected to net increase by 0 - 1.4 tons, with 0 - 0.8 tons in the 2024 - 2025 fiscal year and 0 - 0.6 tons in the 2025 - 2026 fiscal year [1]. - **Malaysia's Palm Oil Exports**: According to SGS, Malaysia's palm oil product exports from August 1 - 25, 2025, were 933,437 tons, a 36.41% increase from 684,308 tons in the same period last month [1]. - **Canadian Rapeseed Yield**: Canada's Statistics Bureau plans to release the estimated yield of major farm crops as of the end of July 2025 at 20:30 Beijing time on Thursday. Based on the forecasts of 6 traders and analysts, the average estimated yield of rapeseed is 20.3 million tons, with a range of 19 - 21.2 million tons, compared to 19.5 million tons reported by the Statistics Bureau in August last year [1]. - **Australian Rapeseed Yield**: Australia's ABARES estimates that the country's rapeseed yield this year will be between 5.8 - 7.2 million tons, compared to 6.1 million tons last year and a 10 - year average of 4.8 million tons [1]. Spot Prices - The spot prices of soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu from August 21 - 27, 2025, are provided [1].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Policy and origin reports are favorable, with the oil market remaining strong and rapeseed oil showing significant fluctuations. Last week, soybean and palm oil prices continued to rise, while rapeseed oil first rose and then fell after breaking through the upper limit. - In the origin, MPOB reported that Malaysia's palm oil production, exports, and inventory in July increased by 7.09%, 3.82%, and 4.02% respectively. In August, production decreased by 17%, and exports increased by 17 - 24%. The reference price for crude palm oil in September was raised to 4,053.43 ringgit per ton. The good - rate of US soybeans is 68%. The USDA report shows an increase in the US soybean yield per acre by 1.1 bushels to 53.6 bushels, a decrease in the harvest area by 2.4 million acres to 80.1 million acres, a decrease in inventory by 200 million bushels to 290 million bushels, and a July US soybean crushing volume of 195.699 million bushels. - In the domestic market, the spot trading of soybean oil maintains a good momentum, and palm oil is mainly for essential purchases. Soybean oil inventory has increased to 1.14 million tons; 9 new purchase vessels have been added this week, and palm oil inventory is between 550,000 - 560,000 tons. - The USDA August report raised the US soybean yield per acre as expected, but the reduction in the harvest area offset the increase in yield per acre, resulting in a decrease in the new - season US soybean production and ending inventory. The report is favorable, and the July US soybean crushing volume is higher than expected and the previous month, causing CBOT soybeans to return to the 1000 - 1050 range. Although Malaysia's palm oil production, exports, and inventory all increased in July, the inventory increase was less than expected, making the MPOB report generally favorable under the trading of the expected difference. In August, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased and exports increased, with the overall supply - demand situation improving. Indonesia has repeatedly reiterated the implementation of B50 in 2026, but the market has doubts. The Indonesian government has confiscated 3.1 million hectares of illegal palm oil plantations, which will continue to restrict the growth of Indonesia's palm oil production. The supply - demand and policies in the origin provide support, and BMD crude palm oil has broken through the 4400 mark. China's preliminary ruling on the anti - dumping investigation of imported Canadian rapeseed has been finalized, and the market is worried about future Canadian rapeseed exports, causing the ICE rapeseed price to fall. - In terms of operations, the market digests the impact of China's preliminary ruling on the anti - dumping investigation of imported Canadian rapeseed. Rapeseed oil first rose and then fell. Supported by supply - demand and policies in the origin, palm oil has broken through the upper limit, and the previous low - position long positions should continue to be held. Driven by the "reverse export" trading and the strength of palm oil, the center of soybean oil continues to rise. Be cautious about chasing high prices and mainly go long on dips [7][8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - Favorable origin monthly reports and policies led CBOT soybeans to return to the 1000 - 1050 range last week. The centers of domestic and foreign palm oil and Dalian soybean oil rose significantly, while rapeseed oil first rose and then fell [10]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **USDA August Report on US Soybeans**: The USDA August report shows a decrease in the expected ending inventory of US soybeans. The planting area is 80.9 million acres, a decrease of 2.5 million acres month - on - month; the harvest area is 80.1 million acres, a decrease of 2.4 million acres month - on - month; the expected yield per acre is 53.6 bushels, an increase of 1.1 bushels month - on - month; the production is 4.292 billion bushels, a decrease of 430 million bushels month - on - month; the crushing volume is 2.54 billion bushels, unchanged month - on - month; the export volume is 1.705 billion bushels, a decrease of 400 million bushels month - on - month; the expected ending inventory is 290 million bushels, a decrease of 200 million bushels month - on - month [14]. - **US Soybean Good - Rate**: As of the week ending August 10, the good - rate of US soybeans was 68%, in line with market expectations, compared with 69% the previous week and 68% in the same period last year. As of the week ending August 12, about 3% of the US soybean planting areas were affected by drought, the same as the previous week [16]. - **US Soybean Crushing Volume in July**: In July 2025, the US soybean crushing volume was 195.699 million bushels, the highest level in the same period over the years, higher than the market expectation of 191.59 million bushels and 185.709 million bushels in June. The soybean oil inventory in July was 1.379 billion pounds, close to the market expectation of 1.38 billion pounds and higher than 1.366 billion pounds in June 2025 [19]. - **Brazilian Soybean Premium**: In July, Brazil exported 12.26 million tons of soybeans, exceeding 10 million tons for five consecutive months. Last week, the premium of Brazilian soybeans reached a maximum of 227 cents per bushel [22]. - **MPOB Report on Malaysian Palm Oil**: In July, Malaysia's palm oil production was 1.81 million tons, an increase of 7.09% month - on - month; exports were 1.31 million tons, an increase of 3.82% month - on - month; inventory was 2.11 million tons, an increase of 4.02% month - on - month. In August, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 17.27% in the first 5 days, and exports increased by 16.5% - 21.3% in the first 15 days. Malaysia raised the reference price for crude palm oil in September to 4,053.43 ringgit per ton (US$962.12) and the export tax to 10% [25][28]. - **Indonesian Palm Oil Industry**: In May, Indonesia's palm oil production was 4.561 million tons, exports were 2.664 million tons, and inventory was 2.906 million tons. An investigation shows that 3.7 million hectares of palm plantations have illegal activities, and the Indonesian government has confiscated 3.1 million hectares of illegal plantations [29]. - **Indian Edible Oil Imports**: In July, India's palm oil imports decreased by 10% to 858,000 tons, soybean oil imports increased by 38% to 495,000 tons, and sunflower oil imports decreased by 7% to 201,000 tons. The total edible oil imports increased by 1.5% to 1.53 million tons. In the 2024/25 fiscal year, India's soybean oil imports are expected to increase by 60% to 5.5 million tons, palm oil imports are expected to decrease by 13.5% to 7.8 million tons, and sunflower oil imports are expected to decrease by 20% to 2.8 million tons [32]. - **China's Anti - Dumping Investigation on Canadian Rapeseed**: On August 12, 2025, the Ministry of Commerce announced the preliminary ruling on the anti - dumping investigation of imported Canadian rapeseed, determining that there is dumping. Starting from August 14, 2025, a 75.8% deposit will be collected from all Canadian companies [35]. - **Domestic Oilseed Pressing Profits**: The price of raw materials in the origin decreased, and the price of domestic pressing by - products first rose and then fell. Last week, the spot and futures pressing profits of imported rapeseed reached around 800, and then fell back to 600 - 650 in the second half of the week. The price of domestic palm oil increased significantly, with 9 new purchase vessels added. The import profit inversion of palm oil for the September - December shipment period has shrunk to less than 100 [36]. - **Domestic Oil Mill Soybean Inventory**: In July, 11.666 million tons of soybeans were imported, and the cumulative import from January to July was 61.035 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.6%. The oil mill's soybean crushing start - up rate continued to decline slightly. At the beginning of August, 2.18 million tons of soybeans were crushed weekly, and it is expected to rise to 2.37 million tons in the second week. During the same period, the soybean arrival was significantly higher than the increase in crushing volume, and the oil mill's soybean inventory increased by 550,000 tons week - on - week to 7.11 million tons, the highest level in nearly a year [42]. - **Domestic Oil Mill Rapeseed Inventory and Pressing**: In recent weeks, the weekly rapeseed crushing volume of oil mills has remained around 60,000 tons. Due to low arrivals, the oil mill's rapeseed inventory has continued to decline. As of the beginning of August, the oil mill's rapeseed inventory was 110,000 tons, reaching a historical low [43]. - **Domestic Oil Inventory**: As of early August, soybean oil inventory increased to 1.14 million tons, rapeseed oil inventory decreased at a slower pace and stabilized at 710,000 - 730,000 tons, palm oil inventory stabilized at 550,000 - 560,000 tons, and the total inventory of the three major oils was 2.34 million tons, compared with 2.03 million tons in the same period last year [46]. - **Domestic Oil Spot Prices**: As of August 15, the price of soybean oil was 8,712 yuan per ton, a 1.59% increase from the previous week; the price of palm oil was 9,360 yuan per ton, a 3.08% increase from the previous week; the price of rapeseed oil was 9,965 yuan per ton, a 2.36% increase from the previous week [51]. - **Domestic Oil Spot Trading**: Recently, the spot trading of soybean oil has been good, and palm oil trading is mainly for essential needs. Last week, the spot trading volume of soybean oil was 151,100 tons, compared with 154,400 tons the previous week; the trading volume of palm oil was 3,449 tons, compared with 2,183 tons the previous week; the trading volume of rapeseed oil was 1,000 tons, compared with 2,000 tons the previous week [54]. 3.3 Spread Tracking The report mentions the basis spread, but no specific content is provided.