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宝城期货贵金属有色早报-20250620
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-06-20 01:55
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Report's Core View - The report provides short - term, medium - term, and intraday views on gold and nickel, suggesting a short - term bearish outlook for both [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Short - term view**: Down; Medium - term view: Sideways; Intraday view: Sideways to weak; Overall view: Bearish in the short - term [1]. - **Core logic**: The market sentiment has improved after a week of the Israel - Iran conflict, with the gold price rising and then falling, and the US stocks rebounding. The Fed's hawkish stance in the interest - rate meeting this week also puts pressure on the gold price. Although the dot plot shows two 25 - basis - point rate cuts this year, the number of committee members in favor of keeping rates unchanged has increased. In early June, the Sino - US meeting in the UK did not meet market expectations, and US inflation was lower than expected, leading to increased expectations of Fed rate cuts and a weakening US dollar. However, New York gold failed to break through the Q2 trading range, indicating strong resistance above. In the medium - to long - term, if the Middle East situation is under control, the gold price may remain under pressure in Q3 [3]. Nickel - **Short - term view**: Down; Medium - term view: Sideways; Intraday view: Sideways to weak; Overall view: Bearish in the short - term [1]. - **Core logic**: Yesterday, the nickel price fluctuated below 119,000 yuan and continued to do so during the night session. On the fundamental side, rainfall in the Philippines has affected shipments, and the slow approval of PKRB in Indonesia has kept the ore price strong. The stainless - steel market downstream is weak, and the negative feedback has compressed the smelter's profit. Inventory shows a divergence between domestic and overseas markets, with domestic inventory decreasing and overseas inventory increasing. In the short term, non - ferrous metals are falling, and nickel, which was previously weak, has limited room for further decline. Technically, the short - term main contract price has rebounded from the bottom, and attention should be paid to the technical resistance at 120,000 yuan [5].