Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve emphasizes inflation concerns over economic stagnation, indicating a hawkish stance in its recent monetary policy meeting, with a focus on rising inflation risks rather than economic downturn risks [2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Meeting Insights - The Federal Reserve's recent meeting highlighted the unclear impact of Middle Eastern tensions on the economy, making it difficult to provide precise economic forecasts [2]. - The economic projections in the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) were revised upward, reflecting increased inflation expectations [2]. - The Federal Reserve maintained its interest rate decision, with a median forecast of one rate cut this year, although many officials lowered their expectations for the number of cuts and discussed the possibility of rate hikes, indicating a generally hawkish outlook [2]. Group 2: Inflation and Interest Rate Expectations - Short-term inflation expectations are driven by tariffs and geopolitical risks, which are suppressing rate cut expectations; however, these factors are expected to have a temporary impact, with potential for rate cut expectations to rise in the second half of the year [3]. - The influence of tariffs is becoming clearer, with the expectation that any increases will be limited and viewed as one-time impacts on inflation, alleviating concerns from the Federal Reserve [3]. - The labor market remains weak, necessitating further rate cuts, but short-term inflation pressures are hindering this process; if tariffs and geopolitical risks stabilize, inflation expectations may ease, creating conditions for rate cuts [3]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Projections - U.S. Treasury yields are expected to oscillate at high levels in the short term, awaiting renewed rate cut expectations, while U.S. equities may experience volatility but could find support from easing expectations [4]. - The anticipated rate cuts would lower the risk-free rate, supporting equity valuations, and could bolster corporate earnings, potentially reversing economic downturns and initiating recovery [4]. - Short-term volatility in U.S. equities is likely due to geopolitical risks and liquidity concerns, with upward turning points dependent on future developments [4].

Group 1: Federal Reserve Meeting Outcomes - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% with an 11-1 voting outcome, aligning with market expectations[4] - The statement indicated a significant reduction in rate cut expectations, with Powell mentioning the possibility of future rate hikes and the need to anchor inflation expectations[2] - The dot plot showed a decrease in divergence among members, with over 70% expecting a maximum rate cut of 25 basis points (BP) within the year[2] Group 2: Economic Outlook - Economic growth forecasts for 2026, 2027, and 2028 were revised upward to 2.4%, 2.3%, and 2.1% respectively, compared to previous estimates of 2.3%, 2.0%, and 1.9%[6] - The unemployment rate forecast for 2027 was adjusted to 4.3%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points (pp) from earlier predictions[6] - Inflation expectations for 2026 and 2027 were raised, with the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) forecast increased to 2.7% and 2.2%, respectively[6] Group 3: Risks and Future Considerations - The report highlighted increased uncertainty due to geopolitical tensions, particularly the U.S.-Iran conflict, and the impact of tariffs on the economy[5] - The Fed is likely to remain on hold until the new chair is appointed, with potential rate cuts of up to 50 BP anticipated later in the year depending on economic conditions[2] - There is a risk of inflation exceeding expectations, which could hinder the Fed's ability to cut rates[21]

Group 1: Market Performance - On March 17, 2026, the platinum main contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange rose 4.27% to 552.70 yuan/gram, and the palladium main contract rose 2.30% to 407.75 yuan/gram [1] Group 2: Platinum Analysis - **Core View**: The market focuses on the Fed's interest - rate meeting, and platinum prices fluctuate. The US - Iran conflict provides support for precious metals, but high oil prices raise inflation expectations and delay Fed rate - cut expectations, suppressing platinum prices. In the long run, a weakening US dollar is beneficial for platinum price valuation, but the US - Iran conflict also has an impact [2] - **Main Logic**: The US - Iran conflict continues, and the resulting risk - aversion supports precious metal prices. High oil prices lead to higher inflation expectations and a delay in Fed rate - cut expectations, suppressing platinum prices. If the US - Iran conflict lasts long, the elasticity of platinum prices will be significantly suppressed. In the long run, the damage to the Fed's independence and the loosening of the global political and economic order will weaken the US dollar, which is favorable for platinum price valuation [2] - **Outlook**: Platinum prices are expected to fluctuate as high energy prices raise US inflation expectations and delay Fed rate - cut expectations [2] Group 3: Palladium Analysis - **Core View**: There is no obvious driver for palladium, and its price follows the fluctuation of platinum [3] - **Main Logic**: On the supply side, there is continuous uncertainty. The US has imposed anti - dumping duties on Russian unforged palladium, and Europe is considering new sanctions on Russian palladium. On the demand side, palladium faces structural pressure. In the long term, the supply - demand situation for palladium is loosening, but there are still short - term supply disturbances [3] - **Outlook**: Palladium prices are expected to fluctuate as the tightness of the spot market has recently eased, and there is macro - level suppression [3] Group 4: Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The comprehensive index was 2591.86, down 0.61%; the commodity 20 index was 2926.66, down 0.58%; the industrial products index was 2565.21, down 0.51% on March 17, 2026 [49] - **Non - ferrous Metals Index**: On March 17, 2026, the non - ferrous metals index was 2699.75, with a daily increase of 0.42%, a 5 - day decrease of 0.77%, a 1 - month increase of 0.70%, and a year - to - date increase of 0.51% [51]

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in gold prices indicate a bullish trend, with significant support from various fundamental factors and technical indicators [1][2]. Group 1: Market Analysis - Gold experienced a volatile week, initially dropping to 4402 due to hawkish expectations from the Federal Reserve and a strengthening dollar, before rebounding to 5092 due to institutional buying and short covering [1]. - The strong V-shaped reversal on Friday, with a peak around 4972, sets a bullish foundation for gold in the upcoming week [2]. - The fundamental backdrop for gold remains robust, with weaker-than-expected ADP data reinforcing rate cut expectations, a weakening dollar, and ongoing geopolitical risks in the Middle East [2]. Group 2: Technical Indicators - Gold has established strong support at 4650, with increased trading volume during the rebound and the RSI indicator recovering from oversold conditions [2]. - The previous short positions have been cleared, and there is a marginal return of ETF holdings, indicating a shift in market sentiment towards bullishness [2]. - The short-term target for gold is set at 4950-5000, with 4800 identified as a new support level [3]. Group 3: Trading Strategy - The recommended trading strategy involves buying on dips, particularly around 4830-50, and maintaining positions even if prices unexpectedly drop to 4700 [4]. - Continuous monitoring of real-time market trends and updates is advised to optimize trading decisions [4].

Core Viewpoint - The international precious metals market has experienced a historic crash, with London spot gold plummeting nearly $450 within 30 minutes after reaching a record high of $5,591 per ounce, marking a daily decline of 5.7% [1]. Group 1: Market Reaction - London silver also saw a significant drop of 9.2%, the largest single-day decline since 2020 [1]. - The domestic market mirrored this trend, with the A-share precious metals sector falling by 8.89%, resulting in over 20 stocks hitting the daily limit down [1]. Group 2: Regulatory Response - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) responded by significantly raising the margin requirements for precious metal futures to curb excessive speculation and mitigate market risks [1][3]. - For non-high-risk accounts, gold futures margin increased from 6% to 8%, and silver futures margin rose from 11% to 15% [3]. - High-risk accounts faced even larger increases, with gold margins rising from 6.6% to 8.8% and silver from 12.1% to 16.5% [3]. Group 3: Causes of the Crash - The crash was attributed to multiple negative factors, primarily the reversal of Federal Reserve policy expectations, which maintained the benchmark interest rate and signaled a prolonged period of high rates, undermining the financial appeal of precious metals [3]. - The precious metals sector had seen a substantial increase of 62% in A-share prices within the first month of the year, leading to overvaluation and profit-taking, exacerbated by high leverage in the market [3]. Group 4: Market Sentiment - Market reactions have been polarized, with optimistic views suggesting that the crash is a temporary profit-taking and policy adjustment effect, not altering the long-term bullish outlook for precious metals [4][5]. - Cautious perspectives warn that short-term downward pressure remains, with ongoing deleveraging in the precious metals market and potential further margin increases from CME that could trigger more forced liquidations [5]. Group 5: Key Variables Influencing Future Trends - Future movements in precious metals will be influenced by the Federal Reserve's upcoming policy announcements, the pace of interest rate cuts, and the ongoing adjustments in margin requirements by CME [5]. - Additionally, the demand for gold from global central banks, geopolitical risks, and the realization of industrial demand for silver will reshape market dynamics [5]. - The interconnectedness of domestic and international markets will also play a crucial role in determining the trajectory of precious metal prices [5].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.5% to 3.75%, pausing the previous three consecutive rate cuts [1] - The statement from the Federal Reserve shows significant changes, including a shift in economic activity description from "expanding at a moderate pace" to "expanding at a steady pace" [1] - Employment descriptions have been updated to indicate that "job growth remains at a low level, with signs of stability in the unemployment rate," contrasting with previous language that noted a slowdown in job growth and a slight increase in the unemployment rate [1] Group 2 - Inflation language has been simplified to "inflation remains elevated," removing the previous mention of "rising since the beginning of the year" [1] - The risk assessment has removed the phrase "recent risks of job downturn have increased," retaining only "monitoring risks on both sides of the dual mandate" [1] - The U.S. job market is characterized by a "low hiring + low layoffs" scenario, with supply and demand reaching a balance, indicating that the unemployment rate's stability will not drive further rate cuts in the short term [1] Group 3 - If no new tariffs are introduced, it is expected that the timeline for peak tariff inflation will shift from the first quarter to mid-year, which is a more hawkish stance compared to the December 2025 meeting [1] - The uncertainty surrounding new policies due to repeated tariff threats from Trump suggests that the remaining two meetings during Powell's tenure will likely pause rate cuts [1] - In terms of asset prices, U.S. stocks, bonds, and the dollar have shown moderate fluctuations, while precious metal prices have surged significantly, driven mainly by geopolitical factors and market sentiment [2]

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices have surged significantly, reaching historical highs, with gold trading above $5200 per ounce, marking a year-to-date increase of over 20% [1] - The silver market has also experienced remarkable growth, with both spot and futures silver prices rising over 50% within a month, and more than 130% since November 2025, outpacing gold's approximately 30% increase during the same period [1][3] Group 1: Market Performance - As of the latest update, spot silver and futures prices have both surpassed $113 per ounce [1] - On January 27, spot silver exhibited extreme volatility, soaring by 14% before quickly retreating, followed by another increase of over 5% after the Asian market opened [3] - The only domestic fund focused on silver, Guotou Ruijin Silver Futures (LOF), announced a suspension of subscription and regular investment services to protect the interests of fund shareholders due to significant premiums over net asset value [3][5] Group 2: Fund Responses - Guotou Ruijin Fund acknowledged investor interest but cautioned that the current high premium is unsustainable and warned of potential price corrections due to cooling market sentiment [5] - E Fund's Gold Theme (LOF) also suspended subscription services for its A-class shares, while allowing redemptions to continue, following a notable decline in its secondary market price [5] Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts from Dongfang Jincheng predict that geopolitical risks and a weaker dollar will support high gold prices, which may continue to operate at elevated levels [5] - Major investment banks have raised their gold price forecasts, with Goldman Sachs increasing its 2026 year-end target from $4900 to $5400 per ounce, and JPMorgan projecting an average price of $5055 per ounce for Q4 2026, with long-term expectations reaching $6000 [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper: With the approaching Fed interest - rate meeting, market volatility has increased. Although sentiment is supported by policies and strategic resource demand, the short - term copper price may be range - bound due to tight copper ore supply, seasonally weak refined copper demand, and increasing global visible inventories [3][4]. - Aluminum: Despite the accumulation of domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum rod inventories, the high price suppressing downstream demand is not a major negative factor in the off - season. With relatively low LME aluminum inventories and high US aluminum spot premiums, and loose domestic and overseas policies, the aluminum price is expected to be strong and range - bound [5][6]. - Lead: Although the visible lead ore inventory is rising, high by - product profits suppress the decline of lead concentrate TC. The current industrial situation is weak, but the expected reduction in lead ingot surplus is due to the tightening of recycled smelting raw materials in winter [7][8]. - Zinc: Zinc ore visible inventory is accumulating, and zinc concentrate TC has stabilized. The domestic zinc industry remains weak, but concerns about European smelting costs due to rising overseas natural gas prices and the low zinc - copper and zinc - aluminum ratios support the zinc price, which is still in the process of making up for the macro - attribute increase [9][10]. - Tin: Short - term tin price trends are determined by futures market capital games. In the context of a strong precious metals and non - ferrous metals sector, the tin price is expected to be strong in the short term [11][12]. - Nickel: Although there is an expected increase in refined nickel production in January, it is not reflected in visible inventories. With the expected reduction of the RKAB quota in Indonesia, the Shanghai nickel price is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term [13][14]. - Lithium Carbonate: The fundamental improvement expectation of lithium carbonate remains unchanged. With high uncertainty on the supply side and strong support from off - season de - stocking expectations, there is a potential risk of profit - taking and correction, so it is recommended to observe carefully or take a light - position approach [16][17]. - Alumina: After the rainy season, the shipment from Guinea is gradually recovering, and the AXIS mine is resuming production. The alumina smelting capacity is in an over - supply situation, and there are three difficulties in continuous rebound. It is recommended to observe in the short term [19][20]. - Stainless Steel: Due to the tight supply of raw materials and the potential impact on supply from the possible investigation of the Indonesian port logistics, the stainless - steel price is expected to rise, but with high volatility [22][23]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy: With strong cost support and continuous supply - side disturbances, the price of cast aluminum alloy is expected to be strong and range - bound [25][26]. 3. Summary by Directory Copper Market Information - The Fed interest - rate meeting is approaching, causing market volatility. The US dollar index weakened, and the copper price declined and then rebounded. The LME 3M copper closed down 1.21% at $13,024 per ton, and the Shanghai copper main contract closed at 101,560 yuan per ton. LME copper inventories increased by 1,825 tons to 172,350 tons, with the increase coming from Asian and North American warehouses. The domestic SHFE daily warehouse receipts slightly decreased to 145,000 tons. The spot in Shanghai and Guangdong was at a discount to the futures, and the import loss of Shanghai copper spot narrowed to about 650 yuan per ton. The refined - scrap copper price difference was 2,720 yuan per ton, slightly narrowing [3]. Strategy Viewpoint - Sentiment is supported by policies and strategic resource demand. The short - term copper price may be range - bound. The reference range for the Shanghai copper main contract is 101,000 - 104,500 yuan per ton, and for LME 3M copper, it is $12,900 - $13,400 per ton [4]. Aluminum Market Information - The US dollar index declined, gold prices hit new highs, and oil prices rose. The aluminum price fluctuated upwards. The LME aluminum closed up 0.53% at $3,212 per ton, and the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 24,350 yuan per ton. The position of the Shanghai aluminum weighted contract decreased by 15,000 to 717,000 lots, and the futures warehouse receipts slightly decreased to 141,000 tons. Domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum rod inventories increased slightly, and the aluminum rod processing fee continued to rise. The LME aluminum inventory decreased by 3,000 tons to 502,000 tons [5]. Strategy Viewpoint - Despite inventory accumulation, it is not a major negative in the off - season. With low LME inventories and high US spot premiums, and loose policies, the aluminum price is expected to be strong and range - bound. The reference range for the Shanghai aluminum main contract is 24,100 - 24,700 yuan per ton, and for LME 3M aluminum, it is $3,170 - $3,260 per ton [6]. Lead Market Information - On Tuesday, the Shanghai lead index closed down 0.37% at 17,016 yuan per ton. The LME 3S lead rose $5.5 to $2,032.5 per ton. The SMM1 lead ingot average price was 16,850 yuan per ton, and the refined - scrap lead price difference was 100 yuan per ton. The SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 29,000 tons, and the LME lead ingot inventory was 213,600 tons [7]. Strategy Viewpoint - Although the visible lead ore inventory is rising, high by - product profits suppress the decline of lead concentrate TC. The industrial situation is weak, but the expected reduction in lead ingot surplus is due to the tightening of recycled smelting raw materials in winter [8]. Zinc Market Information - On Tuesday, the Shanghai zinc index closed up 0.88% at 24,962 yuan per ton. The LME 3S zinc rose $39 to $3,331 per ton. The SMM0 zinc ingot average price was 24,760 yuan per ton. The SHFE zinc ingot futures inventory was 28,300 tons, and the LME zinc ingot inventory was 111,300 tons [9]. Strategy Viewpoint - Zinc ore visible inventory is accumulating, and zinc concentrate TC has stabilized. The domestic zinc industry remains weak, but concerns about European smelting costs due to rising overseas natural gas prices and the low zinc - copper and zinc - aluminum ratios support the zinc price, which is still in the process of making up for the macro - attribute increase [10]. Tin Market Information - On January 27, the tin price rose and then fell. The Shanghai tin main contract closed at 451,160 yuan per ton, up 6.07%. The SHFE inventory decreased by 71 tons to 8,553 tons. The supply is difficult to increase significantly in the short term due to tight scrap tin raw materials and high - price观望 by downstream. The downstream inventory is low, and the acceptance of the tin price is increasing [11]. Strategy Viewpoint - Short - term tin price trends are determined by futures market capital games. In the context of a strong precious metals and non - ferrous metals sector, the tin price is expected to be strong in the short term. It is recommended to observe. The reference range for the domestic main contract is 430,000 - 470,000 yuan per ton, and for overseas LME tin, it is $52,000 - $58,000 per ton [12]. Nickel Market Information - On January 27, the nickel price fluctuated. The Shanghai nickel main contract closed at 146,370 yuan per ton, up 0.44%. The spot premiums of different brands were stable. The nickel ore price was stable, and the nickel iron price rose [13]. Strategy Viewpoint - Although there is an expected increase in refined nickel production in January, it is not reflected in visible inventories. With the expected reduction of the RKAB quota in Indonesia, the Shanghai nickel price is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term. It is recommended to observe. The short - term reference range for the Shanghai nickel price is 130,000 - 160,000 yuan per ton, and for LME 3M nickel, it is $16,000 - $19,000 per ton [14]. Lithium Carbonate Market Information - The Wukuang Steel Union lithium carbonate spot index (MMLC) closed at 169,666 yuan, up 0.52%. The LC2605 contract closed at 179,600 yuan, up 8.40% [16]. Strategy Viewpoint - The fundamental improvement expectation of lithium carbonate remains unchanged. With high uncertainty on the supply side and strong support from off - season de - stocking expectations, there is a potential risk of profit - taking and correction, so it is recommended to observe carefully or take a light - position approach. The reference range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange lithium carbonate 2605 contract is 169,000 - 188,000 yuan per ton [17]. Alumina Market Information - On January 27, the alumina index rose 0.1% to 2,731 yuan per ton. The position decreased by 17,000 to 662,300 lots. The Shandong spot price was 2,555 yuan per ton, at a discount of 179 yuan per ton to the main contract. The overseas MYSTEEL Australia FOB price was $304 per ton, and the import loss was 81 yuan per ton. The futures warehouse receipts increased by 6,300 tons to 155,500 tons [19]. Strategy Viewpoint - After the rainy season, the shipment from Guinea is gradually recovering, and the AXIS mine is resuming production. The alumina smelting capacity is in an over - supply situation, and there are three difficulties in continuous rebound. It is recommended to observe in the short term. The reference range for the domestic main contract AO2605 is 2,650 - 2,800 yuan per ton, and attention should be paid to supply - side policies, Guinea ore policies, and the Fed's monetary policy [20]. Stainless Steel Market Information - On Tuesday, the stainless - steel main contract closed at 14,540 yuan per ton, down 0.72%. The position decreased by 15,508 to 303,700 lots. The spot prices in Foshan and Wuxi markets changed. The raw material prices also changed. The futures inventory decreased by 7,180 tons to 38,938 tons, and the social inventory decreased to 878,900 tons [22]. Strategy Viewpoint - Due to the tight supply of raw materials and the potential impact on supply from the possible investigation of the Indonesian port logistics, the stainless - steel price is expected to rise, but with high volatility. The reference range for the main contract is 14,200 - 15,100 yuan per ton [23]. Cast Aluminum Alloy Market Information - The cast aluminum alloy price fluctuated. The main AD2603 contract closed up 0.2% at 23,055 yuan per ton. The position increased to 17,900 lots, and the trading volume was 15,500 lots. The domestic three - place inventory slightly decreased to 41,700 tons [25]. Strategy Viewpoint - With strong cost support and continuous supply - side disturbances, the price of cast aluminum alloy is expected to be strong and range - bound [26].

Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - No information provided regarding the report's industry investment ratings Group 2: Core Views - The consumer confidence index in the US has declined, which may affect market risk appetite and is bearish for silver. It is recommended to control risks and not be overly bullish in the short term [1] - The domestic methanol market is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term due to high domestic methanol production, decreased downstream demand, and rising port inventory [1] - The silicon - iron market has weak supply and demand, and its price will mainly follow the black - plate operation in the short term [3] - The iron ore price is expected to have a correction due to slow demand recovery and other factors, maintaining a medium - term bearish view [3] - Steel prices may be weakly volatile in the short term due to weak demand, high costs, and bearish market expectations [4] - The short - term price of live pigs is difficult to rise and will fluctuate within a range. It is recommended to wait for the price to stabilize [4] - Palm oil is likely to rise in the short term, but the export situation in January may not be optimistic, and it is recommended to hold short - term long positions [5] - The soybean meal futures may rebound with limited amplitude due to supply pressure, and it is recommended to wait and see [6] - Gold is supported by risk - aversion sentiment, but it may be affected by the Fed's interest - rate meeting in the short term [6] - The long - term government bond market is bearish due to the positive growth of industrial enterprise profits and tight capital, and it will mainly fluctuate [7] - The crude oil price is boosted by geopolitical risks and production disruptions, and short - term trading is recommended [8] - The soda ash market is expected to maintain a volatile operation in the short term due to weak demand and high - pressure new capacity [9] - The PVC market price is expected to be under pressure and fluctuate in the short term due to high supply, low demand, and inventory accumulation [11] - The rubber market will have a wide - range fluctuation, and short - term trading is recommended [12] - The PTA price mainly follows the cost, and attention should be paid to the crude oil market [12] - The copper price is expected to continue to fluctuate at a high level, waiting for new drivers [13] - The aluminum market is expected to maintain a high - level volatile pattern [13] Group 3: Summary by Variety Silver - The US consumer confidence index in January dropped 9.7 points to 84.5, hitting a new low since 2014. The decline may affect market risk appetite and is bearish for silver. It is not recommended to be overly bullish in the short term [1] Methanol - The weekly signing volume of methanol sample production enterprises in the northwest region increased by 5.04 tons to 11.31 tons. The market price in Jiangsu Taicang decreased by 33 yuan/ton to 2267 yuan/ton. The domestic methanol weekly capacity utilization rate was 89.92%, a decrease of 1.18%. The downstream total capacity utilization rate was 71.26%, a decrease of 1.3%. The methanol port sample inventory increased by 2.22 tons to 145.75 tons, and the domestic methanol sample production enterprise inventory decreased by 1.25 tons to 43.83 tons. The market is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term [1] Silicon Iron - The开工 rate of 136 independent silicon - iron enterprises was 29.63%, a slight increase of 0.09%. The daily output was 14155 tons, an increase of 20 tons. The market has weak supply and demand, and the price will mainly follow the black - plate operation in the short term [3] Iron Ore - The total inventory of imported iron ore in 47 ports was 17496.53 tons, an increase of 207.83 tons. The daily port clearance volume decreased by 14.50 tons to 320.52 tons. The Australian ore inventory increased by 193.84 tons to 7776.05 tons, and the Brazilian ore inventory decreased by 78.43 tons to 6090.71 tons. The number of ships in port increased by 2 to 122. The iron ore price is expected to have a correction [3] Rebar - On January 27, domestic steel market prices fell slightly. The price of common billet resources in Tangshan Qian'an decreased by 20 yuan to 2930 yuan/ton. One steel mill lowered the price of construction steel by 20 yuan/ton. The average price of 20mm grade - 3 earthquake - resistant rebar in 31 major cities decreased by 8 yuan/ton to 3315 yuan/ton. Steel prices may be weakly volatile in the short term [4] Live Pigs - On January 27, the "200 - index of agricultural product wholesale prices" was 130.39, and the "wholesale price index of vegetable basket products" was 133.33. The average price of pork in the national agricultural product wholesale market was 18.66 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.1%. The price of eggs was 8.51 yuan/kg, an increase of 1.2%. The short - term price of live pigs is difficult to rise and will fluctuate within a range [4] Palm Oil - From January 1 - 25, the export volume of Malaysian palm oil was 746745 tons, a decrease of 9.41% compared with the same period last month. Palm oil is likely to rise in the short term, but the export situation in January may not be optimistic [5] Soybean Meal - On January 27, the domestic soybean meal spot market prices were stable or slightly decreased. The trading volume of major oil mills decreased by 4.85 tons to 13.37 tons. The soybean meal futures may rebound with limited amplitude [6] Gold - Trump decided to raise the tariff rate on South Korean products from 15% to 25%. Gold is supported by risk - aversion sentiment but may be affected by the Fed's interest - rate meeting in the short term [6] Long - term Government Bonds - In 2025, the total profit of industrial enterprises above the designated size was 7.4 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.6%. The long - term government bond market is bearish and will mainly fluctuate [7] Crude Oil - In January, the extreme cold weather in the US may reduce the daily crude oil production by about 390,000 barrels. As of January 23, the US commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 247,000 barrels. The geopolitical risks and production disruptions boost the oil price, and short - term trading is recommended [8] Soda Ash - The mainstream price of heavy soda ash was 1234 yuan/ton. The weekly production was 77.17 tons, a decrease of 0.46%. The total inventory of soda ash manufacturers decreased by 3.42% to 152.12 tons. The float glass market has a general trading atmosphere, and the soda ash market is expected to maintain a volatile operation in the short term [9] PVC - The price of East China SG - 5 type PVC decreased by 40 yuan/ton to 4710 yuan/ton. The weekly capacity utilization rate was 78.74%, a decrease of 0.89%. The social inventory increased by 2.92% to 117.75 tons. The PVC market price is expected to be under pressure and fluctuate in the short term [11] Rubber - The price of Thai raw material glue was 57.9 Thai baht/kg, and the price of cup glue was 53.2 Thai baht/kg. As of January 25, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao decreased by 0.04 tons to 58.45 tons. The rubber market will have a wide - range fluctuation [12] PTA - The PTA operating rate was 76.6%, a decrease of 0.3%. The PTA spot processing fee was 426 yuan/ton. The PTA price mainly follows the cost, and attention should be paid to the crude oil market [12] Copper - Chile's new government has a goal of increasing copper production by 20% in the next one or two years, but it will take several years to release new production capacity. The copper price is expected to continue to fluctuate at a high level [13] Aluminum - EGA and Century Aluminum will jointly build an electrolytic aluminum plant in the US, which is expected to start construction at the end of 2026 and be put into operation at the end of 2030. The aluminum market is expected to maintain a high - level volatile pattern [13]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is set to hold its first monetary policy meeting of 2026 on January 27-28, with the interest rate decision to be announced afterward [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Meetings and Rate Decisions - In 2025, the Federal Reserve conducted eight interest rate meetings and initiated a rate cut process in the second half of the year, reducing rates three times from September to December, totaling 75 basis points [1] - The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve will maintain the federal funds rate range at the current 3.50%-3.75% during the first meeting of the year [1] Group 2: Economic Implications - There is ongoing pressure from the White House for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates [1] - The impact of the Federal Reserve's decision to cut rates on the U.S. economy is a topic of analysis, with insights provided by Professor Wang Jinbin from Renmin University of China [1]