Market Overview - After the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, market sentiment has turned cautious due to potential rate hikes from the Bank of Japan[1] - Major A-share indices opened high but closed lower: Shanghai Composite Index down 0.70%, Shenzhen Component down 1.27%, and ChiNext down 1.41%[1] - Total trading volume in both markets reached 1.89 trillion yuan, a slight increase from the previous trading day, but over 4,300 stocks declined, indicating weakened buying momentum[1] Sector Performance - Structural opportunities are concentrated in two main lines: - The renewable energy sector, particularly wind and nuclear power, shows sustained investment value due to policy catalysts[1] - Semiconductor equipment-related ETFs have seen net inflows this week, indicating a potential rebound in the oversold tech sector[1] - The real estate, retail, and cultural media sectors led the decline, while hard tech themes like nuclear fusion received increased funding[1] Economic Outlook - The World Bank has raised its 2025 economic growth forecast for China by 0.4 percentage points, citing more proactive fiscal policies and a diversified export market as key factors[7] - The focus on domestic demand is expected to support resilient and sustainable growth in the coming years[7] Fund Dynamics - In the recent Hong Kong stock market adjustment, public funds are accelerating their investments, with several funds announcing early closures for fundraising[13] - A-share assets have seen increased allocations from fund advisors, indicating a strategic positioning for the upcoming year-end market trends[14]

新华财经北京12月10日电（吴郑思）昨夜今晨国内外白银市场再度狂飙。继国际市场期现货银价先后刷新历史新高至61美元／盎司上方之后，沪银也在周 三（12月10日）盘中刷新上市以来新高至14000元／千克上方。 不过，在单日飙升超5%之后，机构也开始警示短期银价波动风险。 一方面，黄金的强劲表现为白银价格上涨奠定基础，但银价持续飙升的另一重要动力则来自于强劲的供需结构。 转自：新华财经 供应短缺发酵 白银年内涨幅超越黄金 近几年，白银的工业需求高速增长，世界白银协会在周二（9日）的最新报告中称，太阳能、电动汽车及其基础设施、数据中心和人工智能等行业将推动 白银工业需求在2030年前持续增长。而投资需求方面，在近两年黄金投资需求高涨的背景下，同属贵金属的白银也受到投资资金的追捧。与此同时，白银 的供应增速偏慢，今年全球白银市场将连续第五年出现供需短缺，这也导致全球白银库存持续减少。 宏观基本面利多共振，使得白银年内表现远超黄金。行情系统显示，截至10日欧洲交易时段盘中，伦敦现货银价年度涨幅已经达到112%，纽约期银年度 涨幅也逼近110%，相比之下，伦敦现货黄金和纽约期金的年度涨幅分别在70%和60%左右。 国贸期 ...

期货研究报告 有色金属 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 有色金属 | 日报 2025 年 12 月 10 日 有色日报 专业研究·创造价值 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 有色日内回升 核心观点 沪铜 今日沪铜增仓反弹，主力期价回升至 9.2 万关口。宏观层面，午 后美元指数走弱，利好有色，国内宏观氛围午后也持续回暖。产业 层面，随着铜价上涨，下游消费受到抑制。12 月美联储议息会议将 在明天凌晨公布决议，短期多空博弈加剧，关注 5 日均线支撑。 沪铝 今日沪铝增仓反弹，主力期价回升至 2.2 万关口。午后美元指数 走弱，利好有色，国内宏观氛围午后也持续回暖。产业层面，随着铝 价上涨，下游观 ...

12月10日，和讯投顾李景峰表示，站在当前位置，创业板指已连续三天远离5日均线，有回调预期。恰 好赶上美联储周三晚上、周四凌晨的议息会议，在这个时间点，资金会选择谨慎观望。远离均线会增加 获利盘，遇到压力位会增加套牢盘，都有增加卖盘的预期，所以今天回调正是前两天所说的节奏，即远 离均线后回靠5日均线。大家注意到没，这两天直播时我连续提到，港股已提前回调，原因是美联储降 息利好落地，因为大家都知道此次降息后，下一次降息概率可能降低。同时，站在这个窗口期，美股包 括纳斯达克指数、道琼斯指数都已提前反映了降息预期，降息落地就意味着利好兑现，美股也是走强后 靠5日线、10日线的节奏。此时若硬让A股上涨，并不现实，我们应对市场宽容一些，让它适当休息， 否则市场"累趴下"对我们更不利。所以我认为，目前回调不是坏现象，按照我讲的大框架，市场应是走 强、回调、再走强、再回调的节奏，这个位置应有一个五浪结构，奔着上轨去。美联储降息落地后，短 时间利好兑现，未来新预期减少，但市场跌得差不多后，自然会寻找机会，比如春季躁动行情预期、险 资加仓预期，险资风险因子下降，必然会主动寻找加仓时机，像易中天等方向，最近就有险资加仓，中 和e ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-12-10 市场清淡，镍不锈钢偏弱震荡运行 镍品种 市场分析 2025-12-09日沪镍主力合约2601开于118040元/吨，收于117350元/吨，较前一交易日收盘变化-0.58%，当日成交量 为102410（-22103）手，持仓量为107986（-3599）手。 期货方面：昨日沪镍主力合约延续近期震荡偏弱的整体趋势，价格在20日均线附近震荡，收盘位于20均线之上， 但均线方向向下。在美联储议息会议前交投谨慎，短期内价格大概率维持116,000-120,000元/吨区间波动，突破方 向将取决于美联储的政策决定。 镍矿方面：Mysteel方面消息，镍矿市场偶有询盘，但未有成交落地，镍矿价格企稳运行。菲律宾方面，矿山多履 行前期订单出货为主。下游镍铁价格略有回探，国内工厂多需年前备库，对原料镍矿采购压价心态或将放缓。印 尼方面，12月(一期)内贸基准价走跌0.52-0.91美元/湿吨，内贸升水方面，主流升水去至+25，升水区间多在+25-26。 整体镍矿内贸价格有所下跌。 现货方面：金川集团上海市场销售价格122800元/吨，较上一个交易日上涨100元/吨。现货交投一般， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - Overnight, copper prices at home and abroad fluctuated weakly. The latest US ADP data showed positive signals in the labor market. The Fed's future interest - rate cut path and liquidity replenishment are in focus. Before the Fed's meeting, the market may be volatile, and investors should watch LME's performance around the rate - cut [1]. - Overnight, alumina, Shanghai aluminum, and aluminum alloy all trended weakly. The supply of alumina remains high, and inventory is increasing. Although aluminum prices followed copper and reached new highs, the follow - up strength is weakening, and attention should be paid to downstream high - price stocking sentiment [1][2]. - Overnight, LME nickel and Shanghai nickel declined. Indonesia is strengthening mining regulation. The nickel - iron stainless - steel industry chain has some support, but the upside is limited. The new - energy industry chain has raw - material support but faces pressure on the finished - product side. Nickel may oscillate in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views Copper - Macro: US ADP data showed an average weekly increase of 4,750 private - sector jobs in four weeks ending November 22, ending job losses. The Fed's potential rate - cut space exists but may change with inflation. Domestically, the Central Economic Work Conference is under attention [1]. - Inventory: LME copper inventory increased by 1,125 tons to 165,675 tons; COMEX copper warehouse receipts increased by 3,208 tons to 401,929 tons; SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased by 425 tons to 29,531 tons; BC copper remained at 4,929 tons [1]. Aluminum - Futures: Overnight, AO2601 closed at 2,503 yuan/ton, down 2.15%, with an increase of 4,647 lots in positions to 287,000 lots. AL2601 closed at 21,835 yuan/ton, down 0.7%, with a decrease of 5,836 lots in positions to 189,900 lots. AD2601 closed at 20,870 yuan/ton, down 0.33%, with an increase of 57 lots in positions to 17,376 lots [1]. - Spot: SMM alumina price dropped to 2,805 yuan/ton. Aluminum ingot spot discount widened to 90 yuan/ton. Aluminum rod processing fees varied in different regions, and some aluminum - related products' processing fees changed [1][2]. - Supply: After the end of environmental inspections in the north, domestic mines resumed production, and Australian mines accelerated shipments. Some mines with revoked rights also resumed production, leading to an increase in ore supply [2]. Nickel - Futures: Overnight, LME nickel fell 0.91% to $14,750/ton, and Shanghai nickel fell 1.18% to 116,360 yuan/ton [2]. - Inventory: LME inventory decreased by 816 tons to 252,528 tons, and SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 139 tons to 34,361 tons [2]. - Market: Indonesia is strengthening mining regulation. Nickel - iron prices are rising, and the new - energy industry chain has raw - material support but faces finished - product pressure [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring Copper - Market: On December 9, 2025, the price of flat - copper was 92,165 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan from the previous day. The flat - copper premium dropped by 20 yuan. The price of 1 bright scrap copper in Guangdong decreased by 600 yuan, and the refined - scrap spread increased by 752 yuan [3]. - Inventory: LME inventory remained unchanged at 164,550 tons. SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 425 tons, and the total weekly inventory decreased by 9,025 tons. COMEX inventory increased by 2,410 tons, and the domestic + bonded - area social inventory decreased by 0.4 million tons [3]. Lead - Market: On December 9, 2025, the average price of 1 lead was 17,210 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan. Some lead - related prices and premiums changed slightly [3]. - Inventory: LME inventory remained unchanged at 239,825 tons. SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 100 tons, and the weekly inventory decreased by 3,064 tons [3]. Aluminum - Market: On December 9, 2025, the Wuxi and Nanhai aluminum prices decreased by 40 yuan. The price difference between Nanhai and Wuxi remained - 100 yuan, and the spot premium remained - 90 yuan. Some raw - material prices remained stable, and some downstream processing fees changed [4]. - Inventory: LME inventory remained unchanged at 525,800 tons. SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 127 tons, and the weekly total inventory increased by 8,353 tons. The electrolytic - aluminum social inventory remained at 59.6 million tons, and the alumina social inventory increased by 1 million tons [4]. Nickel - Market: On December 9, 2025, the prices of some nickel - related products changed. For example, the price of Jinchuan nickel plate increased by 75 yuan, and the premium of 1 imported nickel over Wuxi increased by 450 yuan [4]. - Inventory: LME inventory remained unchanged at 253,344 tons. SHFE nickel warehouse receipts decreased by 139 tons, and the weekly nickel inventory increased by 1,726 tons. The stainless - steel warehouse receipts decreased by 253 tons, and the social nickel and stainless - steel inventories changed slightly [4]. Zinc - Market: On December 9, 2025, the主力 settlement price increased by 0.1%. The SMM 0 and 1 spot prices increased by 60 yuan. The domestic and imported zinc premium averages increased by 10 yuan [6]. - Inventory: The weekly SHFE inventory increased by 793 tons, LME inventory remained unchanged at 57,750 tons, and the social inventory decreased by 0.17 million tons. The registered warehouse receipts of SHFE decreased by 2,330 tons, and LME increased by 2,475 tons [6]. Tin - Market: On December 9, 2025, the主力 settlement price decreased by 0.3%. The SMM spot price increased by 2,000 yuan, and the prices of 60% and 40% tin concentrates decreased by 2,800 yuan [6]. - Inventory: The weekly SHFE inventory increased by 506 tons, LME inventory remained unchanged at 3,075 tons. The registered warehouse receipts of SHFE decreased by 29 tons, and LME remained unchanged [6]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - The report provides multiple charts, including those for spot premiums, SHFE near - far - month spreads, LME inventory, SHFE inventory, social inventory, and smelting profits of various non - ferrous metals such as copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin, showing their historical data trends [7][8][12][21][27][33][40]

欢迎关注微信公众号 | | | | 【每日精选观点】 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 品种 锡 | 合约 SN2601 | 观点 震荡偏强 | | | | 本乙烯 | EB2601 | 農荡偏弱 | | | | 焦煤 | JM2605 | 震荡偏弱 | | | | 玉米 | C2601 | 震荡偏弱 | | | 板块 | 品种 | 主力合约 | 【全品种日评】 点评 | 操作建议 | | | | | | 12月美联储议息会议将召开,继续降息仍是大概 | | | | IF2512 | | 率情景,但市场仍担忧鹰派发言,顺周期资产显著 | | | | IH2512 | | 回调。A股近日量能有所放大,阶段底部确认后, | | | 股指 | IC2512 | 股指低开低走,双创板块逆势上扬 | 低波动率持续月余后预期将有升波。短期单边期货 | | | | IM2512 | | 做多操作难度较大,逢回调可轻仓、分段布局中证 1000看跌期权牛市价差。 | | | | | | 当前10年期国债在1.85%阶段高点附近仍有阻 | | | | | | 力,对应T2603合约在 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Black Industry**: Iron ore, coal coke, rolled steel, and glass are rated as "weak" or "weak and volatile"; rebar is in a "volatile state". [2] - **Financial Sector**: The Shanghai - Shenzhen 300, Shanghai 50, 2 - year and 5 - year treasury bonds are rated as "volatile"; the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 are rated as "rebounding"; the 10 - year treasury bond is rated as "downward". [3] - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are rated as "strong and volatile"; logs are rated as "bottoming out and volatile". [4] - **Light Industry**: Pulp, double - offset paper, and logs are rated as "volatile"; paper pulp is rated as "volatile and returning". [7] - **Oils and Fats**: Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are rated as "range - bound"; soybean meal, rapeseed meal, soybean No.1, and soybean No.2 are rated as "weak and volatile". [7][8] - **Agricultural Products**: Pigs are rated as "weak". [8] - **Soft Commodities**: Rubber is rated as "weak and volatile". [10] - **Polyester**: PX is rated as "widely volatile"; PTA is rated as "volatile"; MEG is rated as "weakly volatile"; PR and PF are rated as "wait - and - see". [10] 2. Core Viewpoints - The main line of the iron ore market in 2026 is "loose supply, low demand, and port inventory build - up". With new global mine production increasing and real - time demand weak, prices are expected to be weak and volatile. For coal coke, there are pressures on supply and expectations of price cuts, but there is support at the bottom. The steel market is in a bottom - volatile state, and the key to price stabilization lies in production cuts and anti - "involution" policies. [2] - The central government's economic work plan for 2026 emphasizes a series of policies, and the market's bullish sentiment is rising. The high - tech industry is growing, but the 10 - year treasury bond yield shows a downward trend. [3] - Gold's pricing mechanism is shifting, and factors such as central bank gold purchases, the US debt problem, geopolitical risks, and Chinese physical gold demand support its price. The short - term impact comes from the Fed's interest - rate policy and risk - aversion sentiment. [4] - Logs' demand improvement needs further observation, and the pulp market's supply and demand are in a re - balancing process. The price trends of various paper products are mainly volatile. [7] - The demand outlook for oils and fats is uncertain, with supply remaining abundant. The price of soybean meal and related products is expected to be weak and volatile, affected by factors such as US soybean supply and South American weather. [7][8] - The pig market has a stable supply, but terminal demand growth is limited, and prices are expected to decline. [8] - The supply of natural rubber is affected by weather, and demand support is insufficient. With inventory accumulation, the price is expected to be weak and volatile. The polyester market has different trends for different products, mainly affected by factors such as oil prices, supply, and demand. [10] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Black Industry - **Iron Ore**: In 2026, global mines will add 64 - 65 million tons, with a growth rate far exceeding that of crude steel. Current iron - making water production is decreasing, plate inventory is high, and steel mill maintenance is expected to increase. Although macro - sentiment may warm up, real improvement depends on the peak season next year. After the stock - replenishment and sentiment boost, there are opportunities to short on rebounds. [2] - **Coal Coke**: Some coke enterprises have turned profitable, but steel mills are still in the red. November's Mongolian coal imports may reach a new high, and there is supply pressure. The first round of coke price cuts in December has landed, and there are still expectations for further cuts. However, there is support at the bottom due to downstream stock - replenishment demand and coal production reduction expectations. [2] - **Rolled Steel and Rebar**: Steel demand is weak, and the winter stock - replenishment has not started. The key to steel price stabilization is whether the production cut in the fourth quarter of 2025 can exceed 5% and the implementation of anti - "involution" policies. Currently, prices are in a bottom - volatile state. [2] - **Glass**: The price in the Shahe area has weakened again, and demand is insufficient. Some glass factories have postponed cold - repair plans. Although inventory has decreased, it is still higher than the same period last year. The key to price stabilization lies in cold - repair progress and macro - factors. [2][3] Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures/Options**: The central government emphasizes a series of economic policies for 2026. The market's bullish sentiment is rising, and the high - tech industry is growing. The performance of different stock indexes varies, and some sectors show capital inflows or outflows. [3] - **Treasury Bonds**: The yield of the 10 - year treasury bond is flat, and the market shows a small - amplitude rebound. The central bank conducts reverse - repurchase operations, and the net investment is positive. [3] Precious Metals - **Gold and Silver**: Gold's pricing mechanism is changing, with central bank gold purchases being the key. Factors such as the US debt problem, high - interest - rate environment, geopolitical risks, and Chinese physical gold demand support its price. The Fed's interest - rate policy and risk - aversion sentiment are short - term influencing factors. The market has a high expectation of a Fed rate cut in December. [4] - **Logs**: The daily shipment volume at ports has increased, but the demand improvement needs further observation. The import volume from New Zealand has decreased, and the expected arrival volume has increased. The port inventory has decreased, and the spot market price is stable. [4] Light Industry - **Pulp**: The spot market price shows a differentiated trend, with the cost support for pulp price increasing. However, the papermaking industry's profitability is low, and demand is weak, so the pulp price is expected to return to a volatile state. [7] - **Double - Offset Paper**: The spot market price is stable, the supply side changes little, and the mid - month publication orders help with sales. However, weak social demand restricts price increases, and the price is expected to remain volatile. [7] Oils and Fats - **Oils**: The demand for US soybean crushing is strong, but the biodiesel policy is uncertain, and exports are weak. The production and inventory of Malaysian palm oil in October exceeded expectations, and exports in November decreased. The domestic oil supply is abundant, and demand from the catering industry is weak. With cost support, the price is expected to be range - bound. [7] - **Meals**: The US soybean supply is structurally tight, but the global supply is relatively loose. Brazilian soybeans have an advantage in export price. The domestic soybean meal supply is abundant, and demand from the breeding industry is cautious. The price is expected to be weak and volatile. [7][8] Agricultural Products - **Pigs**: The average trading weight shows a north - rising and south - falling trend. The terminal demand growth is limited, and the settlement price may decline further. The slaughtering rate has increased, but the profit of self - breeding and self - raising has decreased, and that of piglet fattening has increased. The overall price is expected to decline. [8] Soft Commodities - **Rubber**: The supply in domestic and foreign rubber - producing areas is affected by weather, and the demand support is insufficient. The inventory is accumulating, and the price is expected to be weak and volatile. [10] Polyester - **PX**: With the resumption of oil production in Iraq, oil prices have declined. The PX supply is high, but downstream demand has increased, and the PXN spread is temporarily stable. The price is widely volatile. [10] - **PTA**: The cost side is unstable due to oil price fluctuations. Although short - term supply and demand have improved, the industry will weaken seasonally, and the price is expected to follow the cost side. [10] - **MEG**: There is still long - term inventory build - up pressure, and the short - term supply has decreased. The price is weakly volatile, and the spot basis is weakening. [10] - **PR and PF**: The polyester bottle - chip market is expected to be weak due to low oil prices and weak terminal demand. The short - fiber market price may be weakly sorted due to low prices, weak demand, and weakening cost support. [10]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The copper price is expected to remain high in the short - term, supported by the expected reduction in production due to tight mining supply and the tightening of spot supply. Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate strongly, with domestic aluminum ingot inventory declining, high US spot aluminum premiums, and continued reduction in LME aluminum ingot inventory. Lead prices are expected to run strongly in the short - term due to low domestic delivery product inventory. Zinc prices are expected to follow copper and aluminum to run strongly in the short - term, but the medium - term supply surplus cycle remains unchanged. Tin prices are likely to rise in the short - term due to supply disruptions. Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate in the short - term. Lithium carbonate prices are likely to have large fluctuations, and it is recommended to wait and see. Alumina prices are recommended to be observed in the short - term. Stainless steel prices depend on the actual implementation of steel mill production cuts. Cast aluminum alloy prices are expected to follow aluminum prices [4][6][8][10][12][15][18][21][24][27] Summary by Metal Copper Market Information - The domestic equity market was strong, the US dollar index was stable, and the copper price rose and then fell. LME copper 3M contract rose slightly by 0.09% to $11,675/ton, and the Shanghai copper main contract closed at 92,400 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory increased by 2000 to 164,550 tons, and the domestic electrolytic copper social inventory and bonded area inventory both increased [3] Strategy Viewpoint - The Fed's interest - rate meeting is approaching, and it is likely to continue the rate - cut rhythm. The Chinese Politburo meeting released a relatively loose policy signal. The copper price is expected to remain high in the short - term, and the reference operating range for the Shanghai copper main contract is 91,500 - 93,500 yuan/ton; the reference operating range for LME copper 3M is $11,500 - 11,850/ton [4] Aluminum Market Information - The domestic aluminum ingot inventory decreased slightly, and the aluminum price rose and then fell. LME aluminum closed down 0.48% to $2,886/ton, and the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 22,120 yuan/ton. The position of the Shanghai aluminum weighted contract decreased by 0.3 to 725,000 lots, and the futures warehouse receipts increased by 0.1 to 68,000 tons [5] Strategy Viewpoint - The domestic aluminum ingot inventory is decreasing, the US spot aluminum premium is high, and the LME aluminum ingot inventory continues to decrease. The aluminum price is expected to fluctuate strongly. The reference operating range for the Shanghai aluminum main contract is 21,900 - 22,400 yuan/ton; the reference operating range for LME aluminum 3M is $2,850 - 2,910/ton [6] Lead Market Information - The Shanghai lead index rose 0.23% to 17,338 yuan/ton on Monday. LME lead 3S fell $6 to $2,011.5/ton. The domestic social inventory decreased to 20,400 tons [7] Strategy Viewpoint - The port inventory of lead ore decreased marginally, and the factory inventory increased normally. The production rates of primary lead and recycled lead are rising, and the production rate of downstream battery enterprises is also rising. The lead price is expected to run strongly in the short - term [8] Zinc Market Information - The Shanghai zinc index fell 0.05% to 23,300 yuan/ton on Monday. LME zinc 3S rose $8 to $3,124.5/ton. The zinc ingot social inventory decreased by 4,300 tons to 136,000 tons [9] Strategy Viewpoint - The visible inventory of zinc ore decreased marginally, and the zinc concentrate TC declined again. In the medium - term, the supply surplus cycle of the zinc industry remains unchanged, and the upside space is limited. In the short - term, the zinc price is expected to follow copper and aluminum to run strongly [10] Tin Market Information - On December 8, 2025, the closing price of the Shanghai tin main contract was 319,200 yuan/ton, up 0.54% from the previous day. The supply of tin concentrate imports increased significantly in October, but the conflict in the DRC and the possible suspension of mining in Nigeria may affect the supply [11] Strategy Viewpoint - Although the current demand in the tin market is weak, the supply disruption is the decisive factor for the short - term price. It is recommended to go long on dips. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract is 300,000 - 340,000 yuan/ton, and the reference operating range for overseas LME tin is $40,000 - 44,000/ton [12] Nickel Market Information - The nickel price fluctuated narrowly on Monday. The Shanghai nickel main contract closed at 1,178,030 yuan/ton, up 0.20% from the previous day. The spot premiums of various brands were stable [14] Strategy Viewpoint - The nickel surplus pressure is still large, but the nickel price is expected to fluctuate in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see. The reference operating range for the Shanghai nickel price is 113,000 - 118,000 yuan/ton, and the reference operating range for the LME nickel 3M contract is $13,500 - 15,500/ton [15] Lithium Carbonate Market Information - The MMLC spot index of lithium carbonate closed at 90,969 yuan, up 0.33%. The LC2605 contract closed at 94,840 yuan, up 2.91% [17] Strategy Viewpoint - Due to the mining dispute in Nigeria and the repair of the risk appetite in the equity market, the lithium carbonate price rose strongly. The trend may not last, and it is recommended to wait and see. The reference operating range for the LC2605 contract is 92,500 - 97,500 yuan/ton [18] Alumina Market Information - On December 8, 2025, the alumina index rose 1.11% to 2,636 yuan/ton. The Shandong spot price fell 15 yuan/ton to 2,725 yuan/ton [20] Strategy Viewpoint - After the rainy season, the ore shipment will gradually resume, and the ore price is expected to decline. The alumina smelting capacity surplus pattern is difficult to change in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract AO2601 is 2,450 - 2,700 yuan/ton [21] Stainless Steel Market Information - The stainless steel main contract closed at 12,510 yuan/ton on Monday, up 0.08%. The spot prices in Foshan and Wuxi markets increased. The social inventory decreased to 1.0803 million tons [23] Strategy Viewpoint - Although the sales improved in November, the high inventory pressure is still significant. The focus should be on the actual implementation of steel mill production cuts [24] Cast Aluminum Alloy Market Information - The cast aluminum alloy price fell and then rebounded. The main AD2602 contract closed down 0.26% to 21,135 yuan/ton. The domestic three - place inventory decreased by 30 tons to 49,200 tons [26] Strategy Viewpoint - The cost of cast aluminum alloy is relatively firm, and the supply is affected by policies. The price is expected to follow the aluminum price to fluctuate [27]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall agricultural market shows a complex trend with different products having different outlooks. For example, soybean meal and soybean oil are expected to be weak, while corn is likely to be volatile, and the situation of other products such as rubber, cotton, and sugar also varies [1][6]. - The prices of various agricultural products are affected by multiple factors including international supply - demand, weather, policies, and domestic inventory and consumption situations [1][6]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Conditions and Outlook of Each Variety 3.1.1 Oils and Fats - **Current Situation**: Affected by factors such as the uncertainty of US soybean demand, the expected increase in South American soybean production, high domestic soybean inventory, and changes in palm oil production and exports, domestic oils and fats are expected to have a slow de - stocking process [5]. - **Outlook**: Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are all expected to be weak and volatile. Attention should be paid to the MPOB and USDA supply - demand reports [5]. 3.1.2 Protein Meal - **Current Situation**: Internationally, the market is awaiting the USDA supply - demand report, with pessimistic expectations. Domestically, short - term import soybean auctions will increase supply pressure, and inventory is high. In the medium - term, the procurement progress of imported soybeans in January is 56%, and the expected import of Australian seeds suppresses the performance of rapeseed meal. In the long - term, South American weather determines the price trend of soybean meal [1][6]. - **Outlook**: US soybeans and domestic soybean meal are expected to be weak and volatile. They are expected to seek support at the lower end of the range. Attention should be paid to the guidance of the supply - demand report [2][6]. 3.1.3 Corn/Starch - **Current Situation**: The price of domestic corn shows a differentiated trend. The arrival volume of deep - processing enterprises in the Northeast and North China is low, and the price is strong. The price in the port area has declined due to the futures callback. The news of reserve auctions has affected market sentiment [6][7]. - **Outlook**: The price will be volatile in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [7]. 3.1.4 Hogs - **Current Situation**: Affected by macro - sentiment, the futures price has rebounded, but the short - term supply and demand in the spot market are still loose. The supply will be in surplus until April 2026, and is expected to gradually decrease after May 2026 [7]. - **Outlook**: The market is in a pattern of "weak reality + strong expectation". The near - month contracts are likely to be weak, and attention can be paid to the opportunity of reverse spread strategies [8]. 3.1.5 Natural Rubber - **Current Situation**: The market lacks strong driving forces, with weak downstream buying support and a bearish market sentiment. Although overseas supply is increasing seasonally, there is still pressure on raw material prices to decline [9][10]. - **Outlook**: The rubber price is expected to continue the volatile trend, and it is difficult to have a trending market [10]. 3.1.6 Synthetic Rubber - **Current Situation**: The bullish driving force on the disk is insufficient. Although the price of raw material butadiene has rebounded, there is resistance in high - price transactions [11]. - **Outlook**: The disk will maintain a range - bound oscillation [11]. 3.1.7 Cotton - **Current Situation**: The supply of new cotton in Xinjiang is increasing, and the demand is seasonally weak but supported by rigid purchases. The commercial inventory is rising seasonally, and the 01 contract is strong recently but faces pressure above [11]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, pay attention to the pressure at 13,800 - 14,000 yuan/ton. In the long term, the valuation is low, and it is recommended to buy on dips [11]. 3.1.8 Sugar - **Current Situation**: In the medium - and long - term, the global sugar market is expected to be in surplus, and the price is likely to be weak. In the short term, the 01 contract has obvious support below [11][13]. - **Outlook**: In the medium - and long - term, it is expected to be weak and volatile. In the short term, there is support at 5,300 yuan/ton [13]. 3.1.9 Pulp - **Current Situation**: Last week, the pulp futures rose rapidly, and there were some bullish news. However, there is still pressure from hedging at high prices [14]. - **Outlook**: The pulp futures will mainly show a wide - range volatile trend. If it回调s to the previous low, it can be allocated long, and it is recommended to wait and see at high prices [14]. 3.1.10 Offset Printing Paper - **Current Situation**: Affected by the decline in raw material prices, the price of offset printing paper is under pressure. The overall social demand is weak, and paper enterprises may adjust supply and demand by reducing prices or production [15]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, it will be weakly stable [15]. 3.1.11 Logs - **Current Situation**: The supply may be reduced seasonally. The overseas shipping volume is expected to decline, and there are quarantine issues with Japanese cedar. The domestic demand support is insufficient, and the 01 contract has no clear driving force [15][17]. - **Outlook**: The log market will remain in a loose pattern, and attention can be paid to the opportunity of going long on the far - month contracts at low prices [17]. 3.2 Commodity Index - On December 8, 2025, the comprehensive index was 2267.05, down 0.18%; the commodity 20 index was 2588.87, down 0.37%; the industrial products index was 2216.09, down 0.16%; the agricultural products index was 930.18, with a daily decline of 0.22%, a 5 - day decline of 0.40%, a 1 - month decline of 0.65%, and a year - to - date decline of 2.57% [174][176].