周五的强势V反，为下周黄金奠定多头基础。多重利好共振下，下周黄金涨势明确，短期回落都是上车机会。基本面支撑强劲：美国ADP不及预期，降息预 期强化，美元走弱利好黄金。中东地缘风险持续，避险买需随时升温，叠加全球央行购金潮延续、黄金供需缺口扩大，中长期托底金价。美联储议息会议临 近，政策面难现强鹰派信号，进一步为黄金提供支撑。 技术面来看黄金站稳4650强支撑，反弹成交量放大，RSI指标从超卖区回升，技术面修复向好。前期空头平仓盘出清，机构抄底、ETF持仓边际回流，资金 面多空转换完成，4800是短期新的支撑。 周一短期关注4850-30支撑轻仓跟进多，意外见4700还是多。上方目标先看4950-5000关口，突破后顺势上看。不充分回调不做多，耐心等待回落上车机会。 【涨势已定，回落做多为主】 下周需要关注非农数据、美联储官员讲话及中东局势动态，短期可能引发小幅震荡，但不改变整体涨势。保持理性，坚持回落做多，黄金长期以来的趋势都 是涨，顺势跟进为主，死也要死在多头上，趋势在李槿在。 寒雪梅中尽，春风柳上归。本周黄金大起大落走出过山车，先是美联储人事鹰派预期升温，美元走强，黄金跌近4402后，因机构抄底+空头回补 ...

市场各方对此次事件的反应呈现明显分化，多空分歧客观存在。乐观派认为，此次崩盘是短期获利了结 与政策预期修正的叠加效应，并未改变贵金属长期上涨逻辑，全球央行持续购金、地缘风险未消等基本 面支撑仍在，芝商所的调控只是短期降温，有助于市场回归理性，后续或迎来阶段性反弹。世界黄金协 会相关人士指出，央行购金需求的持续增长，将为金价提供长期支撑。 谨慎派则警示，短期回调压力仍未完全释放。部分机构表示，当前贵金属市场杠杆去化尚未结束，芝商 所若进一步上调保证金，或引发更多强制平仓，加剧价格波动；同时，美联储鹰派信号未改，美元与实 际利率的走势仍将压制贵金属价格，且前期估值泡沫破裂后，市场信心修复需要时间，短期内需警惕进 一步回调风险。此外，白银工业需求兑现进度若不及预期，也可能进一步拖累其价格走势。 影响后续走势的关键变量持续演化。美联储后续议息会议表态、降息节奏落地，直接定调贵金属金融属 性的估值逻辑；芝商所保证金调整的后续动作、杠杆资金去化进度，决定短期波动幅度；全球央行购金 节奏、地缘风险演变，以及白银工业需求的兑现情况，将从基本面维度重塑市场格局。同时，国内外市 场的联动效应，也将通过价格传导，影响贵金属行情的运 ...

北京时间1月29日，美联储宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在3.5%至3.75%之间不变，暂停了此前连 续三次的降息。中信证券海外宏观联席首席分析师李翀表示，结合本次利率决议，美联储主席鲍威尔在 任期间，美联储或不再实施降息操作。 通胀层面，李翀分析说，若不新增关税，鲍威尔将预计关税通胀见顶的时间从一季度后移至年中，这是 相较于2025年12月会议偏鹰的表态。加之特朗普多次释放关税威胁，新政策落地存疑，预计鲍威尔任内 剩余两次会议将暂停降息。 资产价格方面，美股、美债及美元波动温和。在偏鹰会议背景下，贵金属价格大幅走高，其走势主要受 地缘因素与市场情绪驱动。 美联储此次议息会议声明与前次差异显著，李翀总结四方面调整：一是经济活动表述从"以温和步伐扩 张"改为"以稳健步伐扩张"；二是就业表述更新为"就业增长仍处较低水平，失业率显现稳定迹象"，此 前表述为"就业增长放缓、失业率截至9月略有上升，近期指标与上述一致"；三是通胀表述精简为"通胀 仍偏高"，删除了"较年初有所上行"的表述；四是风险判断删除"近期就业下行风险上升"，仅保留"关注 双重使命两侧风险"。 就业市场方面，李翀认为，美国虽维持"低招聘+低裁员"格局 ...

红星资本局1月28日消息，今日早盘，国际金价大幅拉涨，盘中首次站上5200美元，再创历史新高。截至发稿，伦敦金现、COMEX黄金分别报5227.87美元/ 盎司、5218.2美元/盎司，年内累计涨超20%。 今年以来，白银市场也迎来史诗级行情。红星资本局注意到，截至发稿，不到一个月时间里，伦敦现货白银、COMEX白银期货年内累计涨幅均已超过 50%。自2025年11月以来，两者累计涨幅更是双双突破130%，显著超越同期国际金价30%左右的涨幅。 截至发稿，白银现货、期货均突破113美元/盎司。 与此同时，白银价格的波动也日趋剧烈。1月27日，现货白银上演"过山车"行情，日内一度暴涨14%并创下历史新高，随后又快速回落转跌，亚市开盘后， 现货白银再度涨超5%，剧烈震荡引发市场高度关注。 伴随行情持续升温，1月27日，内地市场唯一主投白银的基金——国投瑞银白银期货（LOF）发布公告，宣布旗下A类与C类基金自1月28日起暂停申购及定 投业务，理由是为保护基金份额持有人利益。该基金还宣布于1月28日开市起至当日10:30停牌，原因是二级市场交易价格明显高于基金份额净值，出现较大 幅度溢价。 国投瑞银基金指出，理解投资 ...

五矿期货早报 | 有色金属 有色金属日报 2026-1-28 铜 有色金属小组 【行情资讯】 吴坤金 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 曾宇轲 从业资格号：F03121027 交易咨询号：Z0023147 0755-23375139 zengyuke@wkqh.cn 张世骄 从业资格号：F03120988 交易咨询号：Z0023261 0755-23375122 zhangsj3@wkqh.cn 王梓铧 从业资格号：F03130785 0755-23375132 wangzh7@wkqh.cn 刘显杰 从业资格号：F03130746 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 铝 【行情资讯】 美元指数下挫，国际金价续创新高，油价上涨，铝价震荡上行，昨日伦铝收盘涨 0.53%至 3212 美元 /吨，沪铝主力合约收至 24350 元/吨。昨日沪铝加权合约持仓量减少 1.5 至 71.7 万手，期货仓单 微降至 14.1 万吨。国内铝锭三地库存环比小幅增加，铝棒库存环比略增，昨日铝棒加工费继续抬 升，成交一般 ...

今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-白银】世界大型企业联合会发布数据显示，受地缘 政治紧张、生活成本高企以及贸易战等因素影响，美国1月消费 者信心指数环比下降9.7点，降至84.5，创2014年以来新低。 评：消费者信息指数下降，美国风暴依然持续，或影响市场的 风险偏好，利空白银。市场静待美联储议息会议公布，外盘白 银创新高并收长上影线，建议管控风险，短期不建议过分看 多。关注黄金、白银相互影响。 【短评-甲醇】西北地区甲醇样本生产企业周度签单量 11.31万吨，环比增加5.04万吨；江苏太仓甲醇市场价2267元/ 吨，下降33元/吨；国内甲醇周产能利用率89.92%，环比- 1.18%；下游总产能利用率71.26%，周下降1.3%；甲醇港口样本 库存145.75万吨，周上升2.22万吨；中国甲醇样本生产企业库 存43.83万吨，周降1.25万吨。评：国内甲醇开工高位，下游需 求下降，甲醇港口库存累库，江苏沿江主流库区提货良好。内 地甲醇市场涨跌互现，企业竞拍成交顺畅为主，港口甲醇市场 基差偏强，商谈成交一般。甲醇港口库存高位上升，现货市场 表现尚可，预计短期震荡偏强。 投资咨询中心 2026年01月28日 ...

虽然当前美联储仍面临着来自白宫的降息压力。但对今年的首次议息会议，市场认为美联储会把联邦基 准利率区间维持在当前的3.50%-3.75%。美联储降息与否，对于美国经济有怎样的影响？《闪评》邀请 中国人民大学经济学院教授王晋斌为您解读： 来源：环球资讯广播 美联储将于当地时间1月27日至28日召开2026年首次货币政策会议，利率决议结果将于会议后公布。 2025年美联储共举行8次议息会议，并在下半年开启降息进程，9月至12月连续降息3次，共计75个基 点。 ...

1月27日回溯1月26日(周一)行情，澳元兑美元强势站上0.6920，走势偏强格局明确。这波上涨核心由美 元整体走软推动，上周末纽约联储核查美日汇率的消息，被交易员解读为潜在干预信号，引发美元多头 平仓、日元回补操作，进而拖累美元全品种走弱，间接助推澳元上行。 需注意的是，此类波动由仓位调整与流动性变化主导，缺乏基本面根本性支撑，行情来得快去得也快， 情绪降温后大概率出现修正，最终能否完全回吐，取决于后续美元能否获得数据或政策信号支撑。当前 市场焦点已转向本周三美联储议息会议，普遍预期维持利率不变，若会议措辞中性无极端导向，美元将 回归数据主导定价，2月非农报告等密集数据才是利率路径判断的关键节点。 澳元自身上涨动力强劲，上周亮眼的澳大利亚就业数据，点燃市场对澳洲联储加息的预期，当前定价已 反映63%的下次会议加息概率。这一预期转变，叠加澳洲联储近期表态趋紧、提及通胀黏性下不排除 2026年加息，进一步强化了澳元强势基础。 本周澳大利亚季度通胀报告将成为关键试金石：若通胀回落，加息预期大概率降温，澳元面临获利盘抛 售压力；若通胀高企，则印证鹰派定价合理性，澳元利差优势凸显，强势有望延续。 技术面来看，澳元兑美 ...

Report Summary for the Week of January 26 - 30, 2026 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The aluminum price is expected to fluctuate strongly, and may experience high - level oscillations before the Spring Festival. The supply - demand situation is weakening, but macro - drivers are strong. Although there are negative feedbacks from downstream due to high prices and a reduced probability of the Fed's interest - rate cut at the end of January, the mid - term supply - demand balance in the electrolytic aluminum market and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East limit the downside space of aluminum prices. The expected operating range of the spot aluminum price in January is 22,000 - 25,000 yuan/ton [5][10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Mid - line Market Analysis - **Trend Judgment**: The aluminum price is expected to fluctuate strongly. The supply - demand situation is weakening, but macro - drivers are strong. Near the Spring Festival in late January, high prices lead to increased negative feedback from downstream, and the reduced probability of the Fed's interest - rate cut at the end of January may disrupt the market. However, considering the mid - term supply - demand balance in the electrolytic aluminum market and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, the aluminum price is expected to fluctuate strongly [5]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Hold long positions and wait for the price to rise [5]. Variety Trading Strategy - **Short - term Strategy**: Short - term long positions are advised to exit and wait and see, while mid - term long positions should be continued to hold. - **This Week's Strategy**: Hold an appropriate amount of spot inventory. - **Hedging Suggestion for Spot Enterprises**: Not elaborated in detail, but the overall strategy is related to holding positions and inventory management [8]. Overall View - **Bauxite Market**: Based on CRU data, the cost of transporting Guinean bauxite to Guinean ports is mainly between $20 - 45 per ton. The expected CIF average price of Guinean bauxite in 2026 is $58 - 68 per ton. Domestic ore supply has no expectation of resumption of mining and production release, and may continue to tighten. The supply of Guinean alumina is growing steadily, and the imported ore price in February is expected to be under pressure [9]. - **Alumina Market**: Affected by environmental control and operating pressure, some alumina enterprises in the north carried out maintenance, and the industry's operating rate declined. The weekly output decreased by 39,000 tons to 1.671 million tons. The overall supply - surplus pattern remains unchanged, and attention should be paid to the implementation of maintenance and the recovery progress of previous maintenance [9]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Production**: In December, the domestic built - in capacity was about 46.1865 million tons, and the operating capacity was about 44.6893 million tons, showing a slight increase. However, the capacity utilization rate decreased, and the aluminum - water ratio was about 71.44%. The daily output of domestic and Indonesian electrolytic aluminum projects is increasing, and the output is expected to continue to rise in the short term. In 2026, the global aluminum supply elasticity is expected to almost disappear [9]. - **Import and Export**: The current theoretical loss of electrolytic aluminum imports is about 2,400 yuan/ton. In 2025, China's cumulative export of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products was 6.134 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.0%. In December, the export volume was 545,000 tons, still at a high level in recent years [9]. - **Inventory**: As of January 22, the aluminum ingot inventory was 743,000 tons, a decrease of 6,000 tons from January 19, the first de - stocking since January; the aluminum bar inventory was 222,000 tons, an increase of 3,500 tons from January 19, showing continuous inventory accumulation. The LME aluminum inventory increased by about 4% compared with last week, and was about 20% lower than the same period last year, still at a low level in recent years [9]. - **Profit**: The average full - cost of the Chinese alumina industry in the past month was about 2,720 yuan/ton, the theoretical spot profit was about - 70 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit of the futures main contract was about 0 yuan/ton. The current average production cost of domestic electrolytic aluminum is about 16,700 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit is about 7,500 yuan/ton, at a historical high level [10]. - **Market Expectation**: Macro - sentiment dominates. The Fed's decision is expected to be neutral to bearish, but the strong performance of gold and silver limits the callback space. The pressure of inventory accumulation and the short - term decline in inventory create a game, and the futures price is expected to rise first and then fall [10]. - **Key Concerns**: Changes in the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation in January; the evolution of the geopolitical situation between the US and Iran; whether the bauxite price drops unexpectedly [10]. Important Industry Link Price Changes - Most prices of bauxite, alumina, and related raw materials have changed. For example, the price of Guinean bauxite SI2 - 3% decreased by 1.59% week - on - week, and the price of Henan - grade alumina decreased by 0.29% week - on - week. The price of domestic electrolytic aluminum production cost decreased by 0.21% week - on - week, while the closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract increased by 1.53% week - on - week [11]. - Imported aluminum ore is still under pressure, coal prices have declined, and alumina prices have stabilized, but the bearish atmosphere is still strong [11]. Supply - demand Situation - The profit situation of important links in the domestic aluminum industry is as follows: the alumina industry has a theoretical spot loss of about 70 yuan/ton and a theoretical import loss of about 50 yuan/ton; the electrolytic aluminum production cost is about 16,700 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit is about 7,500 yuan/ton, with a theoretical import loss of about 2,050 yuan/ton [14]. Futures - spot Structure - The current Shanghai Aluminum futures show a contango structure of higher prices in the far - term and lower prices in the near - term. The pattern of "increased supply arrivals + high aluminum prices suppressing consumption" is obvious. The current price is mainly guided by the macro and expectations, and the spot side is a drag [21]. Spread Structure - The spread between aluminum ingots and ADC12 this week is about - 1,750 yuan/ton, compared with - 1,790 yuan/ton before the festival. The current spread between primary aluminum and alloy is at the mid - axis level in recent years, and has a neutral impact on electrolytic aluminum [28][29]. Market Fund Situation - **LME Aluminum**: The latest net long position of funds has continued to increase slightly. Since June 2025, there has been an overall increase in long positions and a decrease in short positions. Overseas funds are still dominated by long positions, but the long floating - profit positions are relatively heavy, and high - level repeated market conditions are likely to occur [31]. - **SHFE Electrolytic Aluminum**: The net short position of the main force first decreased and then increased this week, remaining stable compared with last week. Both the long and short camps have increased their positions. The net short position of institutional positions mainly for speculation remains stable, and the net long position of funds from the background of mid - downstream enterprises has continued to decrease slightly. The main funds are still cautious about the short - term market, and the short - term may be in high - level consolidation [34].

Core Viewpoint - The US dollar index is experiencing narrow fluctuations around 99.40, maintaining a high-level oscillation pattern, with short-term support concentrated in the 98.90-99.00 range [1] Group 1: Market Sentiment and Economic Indicators - Market sentiment is cautious as the Federal Reserve's meeting on January 27-28 approaches, with expectations of steady interest rates providing some support for the dollar [1] - Investors are particularly focused on the policy statement regarding inflation and employment assessments, as well as any clearer signals regarding potential interest rate cuts [1] Group 2: Currency Pair Movements - The euro has slightly rebounded to around 1.1618 against the dollar, while the dollar-yen pair is fluctuating around 158.50, with the 160 level seen as a potential intervention point [1] - The British pound has risen to 1.3390 against the dollar, but uncertainties regarding the UK economic outlook continue to limit its upward potential [1] - The Chinese yuan's midpoint is reported at 7.0051, an increase of 27 basis points, with offshore yuan approaching the 6.96 mark, reaching a 20-month high [1] Group 3: Technical Analysis of the Dollar Index - The short-term core oscillation range for the dollar index is identified as 99.00-99.60, currently operating near the mid-range [2] - The 5-day and 10-day moving averages are showing a golden cross but are closely aligned, indicating intense short-term bullish and bearish competition [2] - The upper resistance area of 99.60-99.80 has been tested multiple times, while the lower support at 98.90-99.00 is reinforced by the 60-day moving average [2] Group 4: Market Positioning and Indicators - The latest CFTC report shows a slight decrease in non-commercial net long positions for the dollar, indicating a reduction in market confidence towards dollar bullishness [2] - The RSI indicator is at 52, indicating a neutral zone without clear overbought or oversold signals, while the MACD indicator shows a slight reduction in momentum [2]