Core Viewpoint - The egg prices in 2025 are at their lowest levels in five years due to high supply pressures, leading to a significant decline in seasonal price patterns, resulting in a "weak peak season" phenomenon. Group 1: Price Trends - As of August 11, 2025, the average price of eggs in major production areas is 3.23 yuan per jin, a decrease of 14.10% compared to the same period last year and a 22.54% drop compared to the average from 2021 to 2024, marking the lowest level in five years [1][3][5] - In August, traditionally a peak season, egg prices continued to decline, reaching 2.86 yuan per jin by August 7, a drop of approximately 13% from the late July high [1][6] Group 2: Supply Dynamics - There is a strong negative correlation between egg prices and the number of laying hens, with a correlation coefficient of -0.62 for monthly prices and -0.84 for annual prices, indicating that higher hen populations lead to lower egg prices [3][5] - The number of laying hens reached approximately 1.36 billion in July 2025, an increase of over 6% year-on-year, contributing to the downward pressure on egg prices [3][8] Group 3: Seasonal Demand Patterns - Seasonal demand for eggs has weakened, with the holiday effect on prices diminishing significantly. For instance, in April, egg prices fell by 6.48% before the Qingming Festival, contrary to typical seasonal trends [5][6] - Demand is expected to increase in late August due to the Mid-Autumn Festival and back-to-school season, but will likely weaken again after mid-September, leading to a potential price drop in October [10][11] Group 4: Future Outlook - The supply of laying hens is expected to increase initially but may taper off later in the year, with projections indicating a slight decrease in October to around 1.357 billion hens [8][10] - Despite potential short-term price increases due to seasonal demand, the overall supply pressure is expected to keep egg prices low, with forecasts suggesting prices may range between 3.00 to 3.20 yuan per jin in the latter part of the year [10][11]