Core Viewpoint - The egg prices in 2025 are at their lowest levels in five years due to high supply pressures, leading to a significant decline in seasonal price patterns, resulting in a "weak peak season" phenomenon. Group 1: Price Trends - As of August 11, 2025, the average price of eggs in major production areas is 3.23 yuan per jin, a decrease of 14.10% compared to the same period last year and a 22.54% drop compared to the average from 2021 to 2024, marking the lowest level in five years [1][3][5] - In August, traditionally a peak season, egg prices continued to decline, reaching 2.86 yuan per jin by August 7, a drop of approximately 13% from the late July high [1][6] Group 2: Supply Dynamics - There is a strong negative correlation between egg prices and the number of laying hens, with a correlation coefficient of -0.62 for monthly prices and -0.84 for annual prices, indicating that higher hen populations lead to lower egg prices [3][5] - The number of laying hens reached approximately 1.36 billion in July 2025, an increase of over 6% year-on-year, contributing to the downward pressure on egg prices [3][8] Group 3: Seasonal Demand Patterns - Seasonal demand for eggs has weakened, with the holiday effect on prices diminishing significantly. For instance, in April, egg prices fell by 6.48% before the Qingming Festival, contrary to typical seasonal trends [5][6] - Demand is expected to increase in late August due to the Mid-Autumn Festival and back-to-school season, but will likely weaken again after mid-September, leading to a potential price drop in October [10][11] Group 4: Future Outlook - The supply of laying hens is expected to increase initially but may taper off later in the year, with projections indicating a slight decrease in October to around 1.357 billion hens [8][10] - Despite potential short-term price increases due to seasonal demand, the overall supply pressure is expected to keep egg prices low, with forecasts suggesting prices may range between 3.00 to 3.20 yuan per jin in the latter part of the year [10][11]

Core Viewpoint - The egg futures market is experiencing a decline in prices due to high supply and weak demand, with potential for recovery as schools reopen and food factories prepare for the Mid-Autumn Festival [1][3]. Market Summary - As of the week ending August 8, 2025, the main egg futures contract closed at 3362 yuan per 500 kg, with a weekly decline of 3.97% [1]. - The opening price for the week was 3450 yuan per 500 kg, reaching a high of 3450 yuan and a low of 3306 yuan [1]. Supply and Demand Analysis - As of August 7, the Dalian Commodity Exchange reported an increase of 4 warehouse receipts to 17 [2]. - The average price of eggs in major production areas remained stable, with Shandong at 5.65 yuan/kg, Hebei at 5.58 yuan/kg (up 0.06), Guangdong at 6.60 yuan/kg, and Beijing at 6.08 yuan/kg [2]. - The national laying hen stock was approximately 1.356 billion as of July, with a month-on-month increase of 1.19% and a year-on-year increase of 6.19% [2]. - The theoretical forecast for August's laying hen stock is 1.363 billion, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.52% [2]. Institutional Perspectives - According to Ruida Futures, the current high stock of laying hens and the pressure from newly added hens are contributing to an oversupply of eggs, compounded by weak terminal demand and increased competition from substitutes due to high temperatures [3]. - Southwest Futures notes that egg supply may continue to increase year-on-year in August, with lower-than-expected sales during the stocking period and rising temperatures affecting consumption [3]. - There is an expectation of supply pressure easing in October, suggesting a potential strategy of holding positions from September to October [3].

Report Title - Egg Weekly Report: General Demand Performance, Weak Egg Price Trend [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Supply-side pressure is significant, and demand is general, leading to a decline in egg prices. The rebound of egg prices earlier led to the release of cold-storage eggs, which impacted prices. Although the September contract is a peak-season contract, the current spot price is falling, suggesting potential further decline in futures prices. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines [18]. Summary by Directory Part One: Logical Analysis and Trading Strategies 1. Spot Analysis - This week, the average price of eggs in the main producing areas was 2.86 yuan per catty, a decrease of 0.33 yuan per catty from last Friday, and the average price in the main selling areas was 3.09 yuan per catty, a decrease of 0.31 yuan per catty from last Friday. The terminal demand at the beginning of the week did not improve significantly, the number of newly opened production continued to increase, and the continuous high-temperature weather in the northern region put pressure on egg prices. After the egg price fell, market confidence was frustrated, and the inventory in the producing areas increased. The price of old hens fell this week as the breeding side's confidence in the future was frustrated, and the terminal demand was weak [5]. 2. Supply Analysis - The shipment volume in the producing areas decreased this week. According to Zhuochuang data, the number of egg-laying hens slaughtered in the main producing areas nationwide in the week of July 25 was 13.38 million, a decrease of 11% from the previous week, and the average slaughter age of laying hens in the week of July 24 was 506 days, an increase of 1 day from the previous week. In July, the inventory of laying hens in production nationwide was 1.356 billion, an increase of 16 million from the previous month and a year-on-year increase of 6.1%. The monthly output of laying hen chicks in sample enterprises monitored by Zhuochuang Information in July was 39.98 million, a month-on-month decrease of 2% and a year-on-year decrease of 4%. Without considering delayed slaughter and concentrated slaughter, the approximate inventory of laying hens in production from August to November 2025 is estimated to be 1.356 billion, 1.36 billion, 1.358 billion, and 1.351 billion respectively [10]. 3. Cost Analysis - The feed cost changed little this week. As of August 7, the corn price was around 2,395 yuan per ton, and the soybean meal price fell to 3,008 yuan per ton. The comprehensive feed cost was about 2,579 yuan per ton, and the feed cost per catty of eggs was about 2.83 yuan per catty. The egg price fluctuated weakly this week, and the breeding profit decreased. As of August 7, the weekly average profit per catty of eggs was -0.26 yuan per catty, a decrease of 0.23 yuan per catty from the previous week, and the expected profit of laying hen breeding on August 1 was 13.94 yuan per bird, a decrease of 0.03 yuan per catty from the previous week [13]. 4. Demand Analysis - The egg price was weak this week. The terminal demand was weak in the first half of the week, and the market mainly cleared inventory. As the egg price hit a new low, there was a sentiment of bottom-fishing and stockpiling in the downstream market, slightly driving the market volume. The sales volume in the selling areas decreased month-on-month. As of August 7, the sales volume of eggs in the national representative selling areas was 7,529 tons, a decrease of 4.6% from last week. The inventory in the national egg market increased month-on-month. The number of newly opened laying hens increased significantly this week, and the supply of small-sized eggs increased, leading to a price decline. The demand decreased under the high-temperature and humid weather, and the inventory levels of all links increased. It is expected that the inventory in the breeding and circulation links will decrease next month. As of August 7, the average weekly inventory in the production link was 1.09 days, an increase of 0.08 days from last week, and the average weekly inventory in the circulation link was 1.23 days, an increase of 12 days from the previous week. The vegetable price index rebounded slightly this week, and the pork price index changed little [16]. 5. Trading Strategies - **Unilateral**: It is recommended to stay on the sidelines [18]. - **Arbitrage**: Stay on the sidelines [18]. - **Options**: Sell put options [17]. Part Two: Weekly Data Tracking - The report provides data tracking charts on inventory, chicken culling, cold-storage eggs, egg-laying hen breeding, price spreads, and basis, including historical data on the inventory of laying hens in production, the number of chicken culling, the price of laying hen chicks, and various price spreads and basis [22][23][30].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - The spot price of eggs in the main producing areas rebounded from a low level this week, but the overall storage volume was small and the support for the market was limited. Currently in the seasonal off - season of demand, coupled with the plum rain season in the South, the egg price is under pressure [7][17]. - In May, the national laying - hen inventory reached a new high this year. Although it is expected that the laying - hen inventory will stop increasing in June, the reduction in supply is limited, and the demand is weak. The egg price may fall to a new low this year [7]. - The chicken - fry replenishment volume is currently at a historical high, and the supply of eggs is under pressure in the medium term. The egg price may continue to decline in the near term but may have bottom support in the second half of the year [9][10]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Week - level Views and Strategies Fundamental Views - The spot price of eggs in the main producing areas was 2.73 yuan per catty, a decrease of 0.05 yuan per catty from last week, a decline of 1.80%. The low - price area reported 2.60 yuan per catty. Cold storage and food enterprises made tentative purchases, but the storage volume was small [7]. - In May, the national laying - hen inventory was about 1.275 billion, a month - on - month increase of 1.76% and a year - on - year increase of 6.78%. The number of newly opened - production chickens was greater than the number of old chickens leaving the market. In June, the number of newly opened - production chickens is expected to decline slightly, and the laying rate of laying hens will decrease. The overall demand is in the off - season, and the egg price is under pressure [7]. Strategy Views and Outlook - The chicken - fry replenishment volume is at a high level, and the egg price is under medium - term pressure. The egg price may continue to decline in the near term. It is recommended to continue holding the short position of out - of - the - money call options for near - month contracts. For far - month contracts, pay attention to the support at the 3600 level of the 09 contract and consider going long lightly in case of an over - decline [9][10]. - The 08 contract has a large premium. It is recommended to be cautious about chasing up, with a short - term pressure level of 3700 [10]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - The spot price of eggs in the main producing areas rebounded from a low level. The average price was 2.73 yuan per catty, a decrease of 0.05 yuan per catty from last week, a decline of 1.80%. The low - price area reported 2.60 yuan per catty. Cold storage and food enterprises made tentative purchases, but the support for the market was limited. Currently in the seasonal off - season of demand, the egg price is under pressure [7][17]. 3.3 Supply Side - In May, the national laying - hen inventory was about 1.275 billion, a month - on - month increase of 1.76% and a year - on - year increase of 6.78%. It is expected that the laying - hen inventory will stop increasing in June, and the supply pressure may ease [29]. - In May, the total sales volume of chicken fry was 45.32 million, a month - on - month decrease of 3.66%. Although the sales volume decreased month - on - month, it was still at a high level. The supply pressure of eggs remains unchanged, and the egg price is under medium - term pressure [35]. - Due to low egg prices and rising feed costs, the enthusiasm for chicken culling has increased, but the number of cullable chickens is limited this month. The total culling volume of old hens this week was 539,100, a month - on - month decrease of 0.44% [40][43]. 3.4 Demand Side - The demand for eggs shows seasonal characteristics. The price usually reaches the lowest level around April, the highest level in late May, and the highest level of the year in mid - to - late September [60]. - Currently in the seasonal off - season of demand, the terminal replenishment is cautious, and the overall demand lacks positive support [7]. 3.5 Cost Side - Corn prices are rising due to reduced supply and trade frictions. Although the supply of soybean meal will be alleviated, the feed cost of laying - hen farming is expected to rise in the medium term, providing bottom support for the egg price [65]. - The egg cost line is an important driving factor for price changes, and the egg price, cost, and profit are generally positively correlated [69]. 3.6 Cost and Profit - This week, the cost of laying - hen farming was 3.55 yuan per catty, a month - on - month increase of 0.03 yuan per catty, an increase of 0.85%. The farming profit was - 0.82 yuan per catty, a month - on - month decrease of 0.08 yuan per catty, a decline of 8.89% [76].

Core Viewpoint - The supply of laying hens is expected to continue increasing in May, leading to greater pressure on egg supply and a potential decline in egg prices due to weak market demand [7] Group 1: Supply and Inventory - In April, the number of laying hens reached approximately 1.329 billion, with a month-on-month increase of 0.83% and a year-on-year increase of 7.18%, indicating a high inventory level [2] - The number of laying hens slaughtered in April was about 75 million, with a month-on-month increase of 2.31%, but this number began to decrease after mid-April as egg prices rose [4] - The new laying hens added in April were primarily from chicks replenished before December 2024, with a total replenishment of over 90 million, indicating a continued high level of new production capacity [4] Group 2: Price Trends - The average price of eggs in major production areas in April was 3.28 yuan per jin, with a month-on-month increase of 0.61% but a year-on-year decrease of 0.30%, reflecting limited price growth despite increased supply [2] - The initial low price of eggs in April, combined with insufficient holiday demand, led to increased slaughtering of hens, but as prices began to rise, producers shifted to a more cautious approach [4] Group 3: Future Projections - The theoretical inventory of laying hens for May is projected to be 1.332 billion, with a month-on-month increase of 0.23%, indicating continued growth in supply [5] - The number of new laying hens in May is expected to exceed the number of hens ready for slaughter, suggesting that the inventory will continue to rise and supply pressures will increase [5][7]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in egg futures prices is attributed to rising feed costs driven by trade issues and a subsequent increase in spot egg prices, which has provided support for futures contracts [2][3][4]. Group 1: Price Movements - From April 1 to April 16, egg futures prices increased by 7.4%, with the main contract reaching 3078 yuan per 500 kg, up 2.87% on April 16 [2][3]. - The average price of eggs in major production areas rose from 3.06 yuan per jin to approximately 3.4 yuan per jin since early April [3][4]. - The main contract's open interest reached 173,000 lots, the highest in three years, indicating intense market speculation [3]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Egg consumption demand has been consistently increasing, supported by a 4.6% year-on-year growth in retail sales, with restaurant income rising by 4.7% in the first quarter [5]. - Despite a 5.21% year-on-year decline in egg sales volume to 68,210 tons, significant increases were noted in major markets like Beijing and Guangdong, with Beijing's supply up 19.1% [5]. - The inventory levels of laying hens remain high, with 1.318 billion hens recorded in March, a 6.8% year-on-year increase, indicating a stable supply [6]. Group 3: Market Outlook - Analysts express caution regarding future price trends, emphasizing the need to monitor feed costs and the culling of laying hens, which could impact supply [7]. - Current egg prices are near the breakeven point for poultry farming businesses, suggesting that producers may not actively cull hens despite rising prices [7][9]. - The outlook for egg prices post-September appears weaker, with concerns about potential losses in the poultry industry by 2026, although optimism remains for 2025 [9].