南华期货鸡蛋产业周报 ——节后消费减弱，蛋鸡存栏去化缓慢 边舒扬（投资咨询证号：Z0012647 ） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2026年3月2日 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 上周鸡蛋市场的核心矛盾在于节后供需节奏的严重错配。从上游养殖端来看，在产蛋鸡存栏量仍处于13亿只 以上的历史高位，叠加春节假期积压的库存集中释放以及气温回暖后产蛋率回升，导致市场供应压力持续加 大；从下游需求端来看，食品厂采购锐减、团膳订单减少、贸易商以消化库存为主，导致主产区鸡蛋日均发 货量下降，需求呈现断崖式下跌。供需两端双重挤压下，鸡蛋价格加速下行，截至2月第3周全国均价跌至 2.93元/斤，行业由盈转亏，单斤鸡蛋盈利由月初的0.45元降至下旬的-0.62元。整体来看，上周鸡蛋市场呈现 典型的"供强需弱"格局，短期内供需失衡压力仍将持续。 蛋鸡存栏与蛋价 source： 南华研究 元/斤 亿只 蛋鸡：存栏数：中国（月）(右轴) 鸡蛋：主产区：均价：中国（日） 15/12 17/12 19/12 21/12 23/12 25/12 11 12 13 2 3 4 5 6 鸡蛋：发货量（周）季节 ...

鸡蛋产业日报 2026-02-26 价略有回落，短期或维持震荡，短线参与为主。 研究员: 许方莉 期货从业资格号F3073708 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0017638 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):鸡蛋(日,元/500千 | 3239 | -29 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:鸡蛋(日,手) | 3448 | 3062 | | 期货市场 | | | | | | | | 克) 鸡蛋期货月间价差(5-9):(日,元/500千克) | -387 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the holiday, the opening price of eggs was neutral. The overall inventory accumulation was limited, and the market sales were average. The supply side still needed to pay attention to the scale of molting and cold - storage egg purchases. It was expected that the short - term spot price decline was limited. The near - month futures contract had a bottom - building trend after a low opening. It was recommended to wait and see or conduct short - term trading and wait for contradictions to accumulate. For the far - end, due to the lower - than - expected decline in production capacity, valuation pressure still needed attention [11][13] 3. Summary of Each Section According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Spot Market**: After the holiday, the opening price of eggs was neutral. For example, the price of large - sized eggs in Heishan was 2.8 yuan/jin, down 0.3 yuan/jin from before the holiday. Inventory accumulation was small, market sales were average, and there was a sentiment of reluctance to sell at low prices. Short - term egg prices were expected to be stable, with a slight increase in some areas [12] - **Restocking and Culling**: In January, the restocking volume was 86.44 million, a year - on - year decrease of 3.6% and a month - on - month increase of 9.2%. The culling of laying hens slowed down, and the average chicken age stopped falling and rebounded to 497 days [12] - **Inventory and Trend**: As of the end of January, the inventory of laying hens was 1.342 billion, lower than the previous value but higher than expected. It was expected to peak and decline gradually, dropping to 1.289 billion by June, a decline of 3.9% [12] - **Demand Side**: Consumption was sluggish in the early post - holiday period, but as downstream enterprises resumed work, the market's inventory - building sentiment increased, and overall demand might gradually improve, but the improvement space was limited [12] - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, it was recommended to wait and see; for arbitrage trading, there was no recommendation for the time being [14] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Spot Price Trend**: After the holiday, the opening price of eggs was neutral, with prices in different regions showing a decline compared to before the holiday. Inventory accumulation was small, and short - term prices were expected to be stable with a slight increase in some areas [21] - **Basis and Spread**: The basis returned to normal after the sharp decline in spot prices, and the monthly spread was suitable for reverse arbitrage [24] - **Culled Chicken Price**: As egg prices rebounded from low levels and farming became profitable, farmers were reluctant to sell, leading to an increase in culled chicken prices and chicken age [27] - **Chick and Pullet Price**: Due to the increase in restocking sentiment, chick and pullet prices rose from low levels [34] 3.3 Supply Side - **Laying Hen Restocking**: In January, the restocking volume was 86.44 million, a year - on - year decrease of 3.6% and a month - on - month increase of 9.2%. Restocking sentiment was higher than the previous month [34] - **Culled Chicken Sales**: The culling of laying hens slowed down, and the chicken age stopped falling and rebounded to 497 days, mainly due to the profitability of the farming end [37] - **Inventory and Trend**: As of the end of January, the inventory of laying hens was 1.342 billion, lower than the previous value but higher than expected. It was expected to drop to 1.289 billion by June, a decline of 3.9% [39][42] 3.4 Demand Side - After the holiday, overall consumption was sluggish at first, but as downstream enterprises resumed work, the market's inventory - building sentiment increased, and overall demand might gradually improve, but the space for improvement was limited [47] 3.5 Cost and Profit - The cost was lower year - on - year and increased month - on - month. After the increase in spot prices, the farming profit significantly recovered to the normal seasonal level [52] 3.6 Inventory Side - Before the holiday, the inventory increased significantly, indicating a large supply scale [57]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the increased demand for eggs as the Spring Festival approaches, leading to a significant rise in shipping volume for Zhejiang Fengji Food Co., Ltd. by 30% compared to regular days [3] - Zhejiang Fengji Food Co., Ltd. operates two standardized production workshops with a scale of 1.4 million laying hens, producing an average of 1.2 million eggs daily, ensuring freshness by collecting eggs on the same day they are produced [3]

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is an agricultural product research report focusing on the egg market, dated February 11, 2026, written by researcher Liu Qiannan [1]. Group 2: Market Data Futures Market - JD01 closed at 3787, up 6 from the previous close; JD05 closed at 3375, up 11; JD09 closed at 3797, down 37 [2]. - The 01 - 05 spread was 412, down 5; 05 - 09 spread was -422, up 48; 09 - 01 spread was 10, down 43 [2]. - The 01 egg/corn ratio was 1.66, down 0.01; 01 egg/soybean meal ratio was 1.28, down 0.01. Similar declines were seen in other contracts [2]. Spot Market - The average price in the main producing areas was 3.30 yuan/jin, unchanged, and in the main selling areas was 3.54 yuan/jin, also unchanged [2][4]. - The average price of culled chickens was 4.38 yuan/jin, unchanged [2][5]. Profit Calculation - The average price of culled chickens was 4.38 yuan/jin, unchanged; the average price of chicks was 3.21 yuan, up 0.04 [2]. - The profit per chicken was 12.82 yuan, down 0.05 from the previous day [2]. Group 3: Fundamental Information - The national mainstream egg price remained stable. Beijing's egg prices were reported as stable, and prices in other regions were mostly stable with some fluctuations [4]. - In January, the national laying - hen inventory was 1.344 billion, down 0.08 billion from the previous month but up 5% year - on - year, lower than expected. The monthly chick output of sample enterprises (about 50% of the national total) was 43.22 million, up 9% month - on - month and little changed year - on - year [4]. - From February 6, the weekly culled - hen slaughter in the main producing areas was 16.55 million, up 2% from the previous week, and the average culling age was 495 days, up 2 days [5]. - As of February 5, the weekly egg sales volume in representative selling areas was 7210 tons, down 2.3% from the previous week, at a relatively high level in the same period of previous years [5]. - As of February 5, the weekly average profit per jin of eggs was 0.52 yuan, down 0.14 yuan/jin from the previous week. On February 6, the expected profit of laying - hen farming was - 12.65 yuan/hen, down 0.37 yuan/jin from the previous week [5]. - As of February 5, the weekly average inventory in the production link was 1.02 days, up 0.05 days, and in the circulation link was 1.07 days, up 0.02 days [5]. Group 4: Trading Logic - As the Spring Festival approaches, the Spring Festival stocking is almost over. Due to the previous good profit situation, the market's enthusiasm for culling has decreased, slowing down the overall capacity reduction. Considering the upcoming off - peak consumption season after the Spring Festival, although the inventory has eased, the overall reduction has weakened recently due to the good egg price. It is recommended to consider shorting the June contract on rallies [6]. Group 5: Trading Strategy - Unilateral trading: Consider shorting the June contract on rallies [7]. - Arbitrage: It is recommended to wait and see [7]. - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report As the Spring Festival approaches and the Spring Festival stocking is almost over, the previous good profit situation has reduced the market's enthusiasm for culling, slowing down the overall capacity reduction. Considering that the egg consumption will enter the off - season after the Spring Festival, although the inventory situation has improved, the recent good egg price has weakened the overall capacity reduction. Therefore, it is recommended to consider shorting the June contract on rallies [6][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Futures Prices**: JD01 closed at 3790, up 20 from the previous close; JD05 closed at 3392, down 32; JD09 closed at 3875, down 4 [2]. - **JD Cross - month Spreads**: The 01 - 05 spread was 398, up 52; the 05 - 09 spread was - 483, down 28; the 09 - 01 spread was 85, down 24 [2]. - **Egg/Corn and Egg/Soybean Meal Ratios**: The 01 egg/corn ratio was 1.68, up 0.01; the 01 egg/soybean meal ratio was 1.30, up 0.01. The 05 egg/corn ratio was 1.49, down 0.01; the 05 egg/soybean meal ratio was 1.24, down 0.01. The 09 egg/corn ratio was 1.68, unchanged; the 09 egg/soybean meal ratio was 1.36, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Egg Prices**: The average price in the main production areas was 3.30 yuan/jin, up 0.01 from the previous day; the average price in the main sales areas was 3.54 yuan/jin, unchanged [2][4]. - **Eliminated Chicken Prices**: The average price in the main production areas was 4.38 yuan/jin, unchanged [2][5]. 3.3 Profit Calculation - **Profit per Chicken**: The profit per chicken was 12.72 yuan, up 0.34 from the previous day [2]. - **Feed Prices**: The average price of corn was 2369 yuan, up 1; the average price of soybean meal was 3174 yuan, unchanged; the price of egg - laying chicken compound feed was 2.61 yuan, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Fundamental Information - **Egg Production and Sales**: The national mainstream egg price remained stable. The egg prices in most regions were stable, with only local fluctuations. The egg sales in the representative sales areas as of February 5th were 7210 tons, down 2.3% from the previous week, but still at a relatively high level in the same period of previous years [4][5]. - **Laying Hen Inventory**: In January, the national inventory of laying hens in production was 1.344 billion, a decrease of 80 million from the previous month, but an increase of 5% year - on - year, lower than expected [4]. - **Chicken Chick Output**: The monthly output of chicken chicks in January (about 50% of the national total) was 43.22 million, a month - on - month increase of 9%, with little year - on - year change [4]. - **Egg - laying Hen Culling**: From February 6th, the weekly culling volume of egg - laying hens in the main production areas was 16.55 million, a 2% increase from the previous week. The average culling age was 495 days, an increase of 2 days from the previous week [5]. - **Inventory Situation**: As of February 5th, the average weekly inventory in the production link was 1.02 days, an increase of 0.05 days from the previous week; the average weekly inventory in the circulation link was 1.07 days, an increase of 0.02 days from the previous week [5]. - **Profit Situation**: As of February 5th, the average weekly profit per jin of eggs was 0.52 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.14 yuan/jin from the previous week. On February 6th, the expected profit of egg - laying chicken farming was - 12.65 yuan per chicken, a decrease of 0.37 yuan/jin from the previous week [5]. 3.5 Trading Logic As the Spring Festival approaches and the Spring Festival stocking is almost over, the previous good profit situation has reduced the market's enthusiasm for culling, slowing down the overall capacity reduction. Considering that the egg consumption will enter the off - season after the Spring Festival, although the inventory situation has improved, the recent good egg price has weakened the overall capacity reduction. So, it is recommended to consider shorting the June contract on rallies [6]. 3.6 Trading Strategy - **Single - side Trading**: Consider shorting the June contract on rallies [7]. - **Arbitrage**: It is recommended to wait and see [7]. - **Options**: It is recommended to wait and see [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The previous replenishment was relatively low, so the current pressure of new egg - laying hens is not significant, and the egg - laying hen inventory will continue to decline. However, the current in - production inventory is still at a high level. The pre - festival stocking is coming to an end, the sales are stable, and the supply and demand are relatively balanced. The breeding side has good profits and a strong willingness to hold prices. Supported by good profits, the enthusiasm for chick replenishment has increased, while the enthusiasm for culling old hens has slightly slowed down, weakening the expectation of inventory decline. From the perspective of the futures market, restricted by the high - inventory pressure and the expectation of egg price decline after the Spring Festival, the futures price has also weakened, increasing market volatility. It is recommended to participate in the short - term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The futures closing price of the active egg contract is 2,911 yuan per 500 kilograms, with a week - on - week increase of 2 [2]. - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of eggs is -7,652 lots, with a week - on - week increase of 1,623 [2]. - The egg futures spread between the May and September contracts is -470 yuan per 500 kilograms, with a week - on - week increase of 13 [2]. - The futures trading volume of the active egg contract is 123,275 lots, with a week - on - week decrease of 16,190 [2]. - The registered warehouse receipt volume of eggs is 0 lots, with no week - on - week change [2]. 3.2现货市场 - The spot price of eggs is 3.44 yuan per catty, with no week - on - week change [2]. - The basis (spot - futures) is 527 yuan per 500 kilograms, with a week - on - week decrease of 2 [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national laying - hen inventory index (monthly, 2015 = 100) is 109.28, with a month - on - month decrease of 2.75 [2]. - The national culled laying - hen index (monthly, 2015 = 100) is 124.98, with a month - on - month increase of 23.8 [2]. - The average price of laying - hen chicks in the main production areas is 3.2 yuan per chick, with no week - on - week change [2]. - The national new - chick index (monthly, 2015 = 100) is 71.99, with a month - on - month decrease of 21.63 [2]. - The average price of laying - hen feed is 2.84 yuan per kilogram, with no week - on - week change [2]. - The breeding profit of laying hens is 0.03 yuan per hen, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.27 [2]. - The average price of culled hens in the main production areas is 8.86 yuan per kilogram, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.58 [2]. - The national average age of culled hens is 500 days, with no month - on - month change [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The average wholesale price of pork is 18.26 yuan per kilogram, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.08 [2]. - The average wholesale price of 28 key - monitored vegetables is 5.52 yuan per kilogram, with a day - on - day increase of 0.04 [2]. - The average wholesale price of dressed chickens is 17.14 yuan per kilogram, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.04 [2]. - The weekly inventory in the circulation link is 1.07 days, with a week - on - week increase of 0.02 [2]. - The weekly inventory in the production link is 1.02 days, with a week - on - week increase of 0.05 [2]. - The monthly export volume of fresh eggs is 14,898.72 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 1,853.2 [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly consumption volume of eggs in the sales area is 7,210 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 165 [2]. 3.6 Industry News - The average price of eggs in Shandong, the main production area, is 6.88 yuan per kilogram, unchanged from yesterday; the average price of eggs in Hebei is 6.72 yuan per kilogram, unchanged from yesterday; the average price of eggs in Guangdong is 6.87 yuan per kilogram, unchanged from yesterday; the average price of eggs in Beijing is 7.56 yuan per kilogram, unchanged from yesterday [2]. 3.7 Key Points to Watch - There is no news today [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The core contradiction in the egg market last week was the intense game between the strong reality of pre - holiday stocking and the pessimistic expectation of the post - holiday off - season, leading to severe "futures - spot divergence." As stocking ended and spot prices fell, the market's dominant logic shifted from "reality" to "expectation" [1] - The near - end trading logic is that after the pre - holiday stocking ends, demand decreases, and the market trades the post - holiday off - season. Also, the production and circulation links have completed inventory replenishment [3][4] - The far - end trading logic includes increased farmers' willingness to cull old chickens as spot prices decline, market expectations of improved demand driven by festival stocking in the second and third quarters, and the impact of accelerated chick replenishment on egg production in 4 - 5 months due to rising chick prices [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradiction and Strategy Suggestions 3.1.1 Core Contradiction - The pre - holiday strong demand for stocking and the post - holiday pessimistic demand expectation led to "futures - spot divergence." Spot prices remained firm due to short - term demand, while futures contracts were deeply discounted. The end of stocking and the decline in spot prices marked the start of the resolution of this contradiction [1] 3.1.2 Speculative Strategy Suggestions - **Trend Judgment**: The pre - holiday stocking demand has ended, and the market is trading the post - holiday demand off - season [10] - **Price Range**: It will fluctuate within the range of 2900 - 3100 [10] - **Unilateral Strategy**: Enter the market with a light long position when the price drops to around 2900 and take profit when it reaches around 3100 [10] 3.1.3 Industry Customer Strategy Suggestions - **Egg Price Range Prediction**: The price range of the main contract is predicted to be 2800 - 3400, with the current 20 - day rolling volatility at 15.35% and the historical percentile of the current volatility (3 - year) at 31.95% [11] - **Risk Management Strategy for Egg Enterprises**: Different strategies are recommended for inventory management and procurement management, such as shorting egg futures, selling call options, buying put options, etc., with specific contract codes, trading directions, and recommended ratios provided [13] 3.2 Market Information 3.2.1 This Week's Main Information - **Positive Information**: As of the end of January, the inventory days in the production and circulation links were at a relatively low level in the same period of history, providing room for price increases [14] - **Negative Information**: In February, market demand is gradually weakening as food processing enterprises and schools are on holiday. Egg supply is still relatively abundant, and the egg price is expected to decline by 0.90 - 1.00 yuan/jin. The concentrated procurement of food enterprises, e - commerce, and traders is basically completed, and the market's purchasing enthusiasm has decreased [14] 3.2.2 Next Week's Main Information - Pay attention to the egg quotes in the sales areas [15] 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - This week, the opening price of the main egg 03 contract was 3002 yuan/500KG, and the closing price was 2904 yuan/500KG, a decrease of 3.26%. The position was 149,000 lots, a decrease of 51,367 lots compared with last week [15] 3.3.2 Basis and Calendar Spread Structure Analysis - **Calendar Spread Structure**: The egg calendar spread generally shows a contango structure [18] - **Basis Structure**: After the end of stocking demand, the decline in egg spot prices is greater than that in futures prices, leading to a narrowing of the basis [20] 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis - Currently, the egg - laying hen farming profit is gradually turning into a loss due to price decline, and farmers' willingness to cull chickens is increasing. This week's farming profit decreased compared with last week. Feed prices remained stable, corn prices fluctuated at a high level, and the farming cost remained the same as last week [24] 3.5 This Week's Supply - Demand Situation 3.5.1 Supply - Side Situation - **Egg - Laying Hen Inventory**: In December, the national inventory of laying hens was about 1.288 billion, a month - on - month decrease of 0.54%. The proportion of main - producing laying hens increased, while that of reserve and to - be - slaughtered laying hens decreased. The egg - laying rate remained the same as last month [27] - **Chick Situation**: In January, the chick sales volume increased slightly. The total sales volume of commercial chicks of 18 representative enterprises monitored by Zhuochuang Information was about 43.22 million, a month - on - month increase of 9.16% [30] - **Chicken Culling Situation**: There are differences in the chicken culling data between Zhuochuang and Ganglian. Zhuochuang's monthly chicken culling decreased, while Ganglian's chicken culling volume has been increasing this month, and the market's divergence on the data is increasing [33] 3.5.2 Consumption Situation - This week, the egg sales volume in the main sales areas decreased compared with last week, and the egg arrival volume in the Guangdong wholesale market increased [36] 3.5.3 Inventory Situation - This week, the production and circulation links have completed inventory replenishment, with the available inventory days being 1.44 days and 1.77 days respectively [38]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the egg price fluctuated and declined. The closing price of the 2603 contract was 2904 yuan per 500 kilograms, a decrease of 98 yuan per 500 kilograms compared to the previous week [6]. - The previous low level of replenishment means that the current pressure of newly - opened production is not high, and the laying - hen inventory is still in a declining trend. However, the current inventory of laying hens in production is still at a high level. The previous high enthusiasm for market stocking led to a significant increase in egg prices and improved breeding profits, which increased the enthusiasm for chick replenishment and slightly slowed down the enthusiasm for old - hen culling, weakening the expectation of inventory decline [6]. - Affected by the recent decline in spot prices and high inventory pressure, the futures price continued to weaken this week, adding market volatility. It is recommended to participate in the short - term [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Key Points Summary - The 2603 contract of eggs closed lower with a price of 2904 yuan per 500 kilograms, down 98 yuan per 500 kilograms from the previous week. The laying - hen inventory is expected to decline, but high current inventory, improved breeding profits, increased chick - replenishment enthusiasm and slowed - down old - hen culling weaken this decline expectation. It is recommended to participate in the short - term due to price volatility [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market 3.2.1 Futures Price Trend and Top 20 Positions - The 3 - month contract of egg futures closed lower with a trading volume of 149,120 lots, a decrease of 51,367 lots from last week. The net position of the top 20 changed from a net long of +2,490 to a net short of - 11,114 [13]. 3.2.2 Weekly Egg Futures Warehouse Receipts - As of Friday, the registered warehouse receipt volume of eggs was 0 [17]. 3.2.3 Egg Spot Price and Basis Trend - The egg spot price was reported at 3450 yuan per 500 kilograms, a decrease of 661 yuan per 500 kilograms from last week. The basis between the active 3 - month contract futures price and the spot average price was +546 yuan per ton [23]. 3.2.4 Egg Futures Inter - monthly Spread Change - The 3 - 5 spread of eggs was reported at - 520 yuan per 500 kilograms, generally at a low level in the same period [27]. 3.2.5 Related Commodity Spot Price Trends - As of February 5, 2026, the average wholesale price of pork was reported at 18.48 yuan per kilogram, and the average wholesale price of 28 key monitored vegetables was reported at 5.5 yuan per kilogram [33]. 3.3 Industry Chain Situation 3.3.1 Supply Side: Inventory Index and Replenishment Enthusiasm - As of December 31, 2025, the laying - hen inventory index nationwide was reported at 109.28, a month - on - month decrease of 2.45%. The new - chick index nationwide was reported at 71.99, a month - on - month decrease of 23.10% [39]. 3.3.2 Culled Laying - Hen Index and Culling Age - As of December 31, 2025, the culled laying - hen index nationwide was reported at 124.98, a month - on - month increase of 23.52%. The culling age of hens nationwide was reported at 500 days [44]. 3.3.3 Feed Raw Material Price Trends - As of February 5, 2026, the average spot price of corn was reported at 2368.82 yuan per ton, and the spot price of soybean meal in Fangcheng was reported at 3100 yuan per ton [48]. 3.3.4 Feed Price and Breeding Profit - As of January 30, 2026, the breeding profit of laying hens was reported at 0.3 yuan per hen, and the average price of laying - hen compound feed was reported at 2.84 yuan per kilogram [54]. 3.3.5 Laying - Hen Chick and Culled - Hen Prices - As of January 30, 2026, the average price of laying - hen chicks in the main producing areas was reported at 3.2 yuan per chick, and the average price of culled hens in the main producing areas was reported at 9.44 yuan per kilogram [58]. 3.3.6 Monthly Egg Export Volume - In December 2025, China's total egg export volume was 14,898.72 tons, an increase of 2767.32 tons compared to 12,131.40 tons in the same period of the previous year, a year - on - year increase of 22.81%. It was a month - on - month increase of 1853.21 tons compared to 13,045.52 tons in the previous month [63]. 3.4 Representative Enterprises - Information about the price - earnings ratio change of Xiaoming Co., Ltd. is provided, but no specific analysis is given [65].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The egg market is currently in a state of "strong supply and weak demand" as the Spring Festival stocking nears its end. Egg prices are expected to continue falling before the Spring Festival, and it is advisable to consider shorting the June contract [5][16][17] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Logical Analysis and Trading Strategies 3.1.1 Spot Analysis - This week, the average price of eggs in the main producing areas was 3.45 yuan per catty, a decrease of 0.53 yuan per catty from last Friday, and the average price in the main selling areas was 3.62 yuan per catty, a decrease of 0.72 yuan per catty from last Friday. Egg prices are expected to continue falling before the Spring Festival [5] - The price of old hens has been weakly adjusted after falling from a high. The market demand support is average, and the supply - demand of the old hen market is relatively stable [5] 3.1.2 Supply Analysis - According to Zhuochuang data, the weekly egg - chicken culling volume in the main producing areas of the country from February 6th was 16.55 million, a 2% increase from the previous week. The average culling age of culled chickens in the week of February 6th was 495 days, an increase of 2 days from the previous week [10] - In January, the national inventory of laying hens was 1.344 billion, a decrease of 80 million from the previous month, a 5% year - on - year increase, and lower than expected. The monthly output of egg - chicken chicks from sample enterprises monitored by Zhuochuang Information in January was 43.22 million, a 9% month - on - month increase and little change year - on - year [10] 3.1.3 Cost Analysis - As of February 5th, the corn price was around 2,368 yuan per ton, the soybean meal price dropped to 3,176 yuan per ton, and the comprehensive feed cost was about 2,610 yuan per ton, equivalent to about 2.87 yuan per catty of eggs [13] - The feed price fluctuated little this week, and the cost per catty of eggs was flat month - on - month. The average weekly profit per catty of eggs decreased. As of January 15th, the average weekly profit per catty of eggs was 0.52 yuan, a decrease of 0.14 yuan per catty from the previous week. On February 6th, the expected profit of egg - chicken farming was - 12.65 yuan per bird, a decrease of 0.37 yuan per catty from the previous week [13] 3.1.4 Demand Analysis - As the festival stocking nears the end, the market starts risk control in advance. The sales in markets such as Beijing, Shanghai, and Dongguan have slowed down significantly, and the price is under pressure. The sales in the selling areas have decreased month - on - month. As of February 6th, the weekly egg sales in the national representative selling areas were 7,304 tons, a 1.5% increase from the previous week, at a relatively high level in the same period over the years [16] - After the festival stocking ended, egg prices entered a rapid decline cycle, and egg inventories showed a "rapid inventory accumulation" trend. The inventory days in the production and circulation links increased month - on - month for many consecutive days. As of the week of January 23rd, the average weekly inventory in the production link was 1.26 days, with little change from the previous week, and the average weekly inventory in the circulation link was 1.45 days, an increase of 0.04 days from the previous week [16] - This week, the vegetable price index rebounded slightly. On February 4th, the total vegetable price index in Shouguang was 132. The pork price also rebounded slightly. As of January 31st, the national average wholesale price of pork was about 14.67 yuan per kilogram, with little change from the previous week [16] 3.1.5 Trading Strategies - Trading logic: As the Spring Festival approaches, the Spring Festival stocking is basically coming to an end. The market's enthusiasm for culling has decreased, and the overall capacity reduction has slowed down. Considering that the egg consumption will enter the off - season after the Spring Festival, it is advisable to consider shorting the June contract [17] - Single - side: Consider shorting the June contract [17] - Arbitrage: It is recommended to wait and see [17] - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [17] 3.2 Second Part: Weekly Data Tracking 3.2.1 Egg - Chicken Farming Situation - No specific data or analysis content provided in the text 3.2.2 Spread and Basis - The text provides the basis and spread data from 2018 - 2025 for different contract months (January, May, September), including 1 - 5 spread, 5 - 9 spread, 9 - 1 spread, etc., but no specific analysis is made [24][25]