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鸡蛋周报:需求备货告一段落,近月承压回落-20260330
Zhong Yuan Qi Huo· 2026-03-30 08:44
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall egg market shows a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength, but the inventory remains at a high level, and there is still supply pressure. The future production capacity is expected to peak and decline. In the short term, there is an optimistic expectation for the spot price from March to April, but considering the replenishment situation, there may be new supply pressure from May to June, which limits the rebound height of the futures price [3][21]. - The cost of feed raw materials such as soybean meal and corn is rising steadily, and the comprehensive breeding cost is about 3.1 yuan per catty. The breeding profit is around the break - even point [3][32]. - The seasonal consumption is in the off - season, with a phased consumption recovery after the temperature warms up. The inventory pressure in the production area is reduced, while the inventory replenishment in the sales area is completed, and the demand is not strong [26]. - Vegetable and pork prices are putting downward pressure on egg prices [28]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Review - Last week, the basis strengthened significantly, and the futures price followed the spot price passively [5]. - The futures price rebounded to a certain extent due to the increase in capital attention, but was still suppressed by the high - level inventory [36]. 3.2 Spot Market Review - The inventory in the production area is low, with a shortage of small eggs, and the sales area has completed inventory replenishment [9]. 3.3 Supply Analysis 3.3.1 New Replenishment - The utilization rate of hatching eggs has increased, the price of chicks is high, and the overall enthusiasm for replenishment is high, which will mainly affect the supply from July to August. The new supply pressure from January to March 2026 is relatively small, but the new supply from May to June is expected to increase [3][10][11]. 3.3.2 Culling - The price of culled chickens has risen, the culling volume is at a low level, the age of chickens has increased, and the culling speed has slowed down. The current available culling volume is about 100 million, and the culling volume in the range of 350 - 450 days is about 220 million. The overall breeding is not profitable, and there is a contradiction between culling and waiting for the Spring Festival for molting [13][19]. 3.3.3 Production Capacity - Whether through normal culling or molting, the future production capacity is expected to peak and decline [21]. 3.4 Demand Analysis - Seasonally, it is the off - season for consumption, but there is a phased consumption recovery after the temperature warms up. The inventory pressure in the production area is reduced, and the temperature is rising, so the producers are active in shipping. The inventory replenishment in the sales area is completed, and the hot and humid weather in the sales area increases the storage difficulty, resulting in weak demand [26]. 3.5 Cost and Profit - The cost of raw materials such as soybean meal and corn continues to strengthen, and the feed cost is about 2.7 yuan per catty, with the comprehensive breeding cost at about 3.1 yuan per catty. The breeding cost has risen rapidly, while the spot price of eggs has increased slightly, and the profit is around the break - even point [3][32]. 3.6 Strategy Suggestions - Short - sell at high positions. - Conduct reverse spread operations in the JD5 - 9 spread range. - Close the 4 - 5/4 - 6 positive spread positions [3].
鸡蛋市场周报:高存栏压力仍存,盘面区间波动-20260327
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2026-03-27 10:01
Group 1: Report Summary and Investment Suggestions - The egg market showed an upward trend this week, with the closing price of the 2605 contract at 3,502 yuan per 500 kilograms, a rise of 93 yuan per 500 kilograms from last week [6]. - The current school openings and factory resumptions, along with early Qingming Festival stockpiling, have significantly boosted off - season demand. High feed costs support the market, and farmers are reluctant to sell, leading to a rebound in spot prices. However, the rising spot prices weaken the expectation of a decline in laying - hen inventory, and the slow culling of old hens results in sufficient supply and future supply pressure. The egg futures market is expected to remain volatile, and short - term trading is recommended [6]. Group 2: Futures and Spot Market Futures Price and Position - The egg futures May contract fluctuated upwards, with a trading volume of 187,480 lots, an increase of 22,347 lots from last week. The net position of the top 20 traders was +25,899, compared to +576 last week, indicating an increase in net long positions [13]. Futures Warehouse Receipts - As of Friday, the number of registered egg warehouse receipts was 20 [17]. Spot Price and Basis - The egg spot price was reported at 3,418 yuan per 500 kilograms, a rise of 124 yuan per 500 kilograms from last week. The basis between the May active contract futures price and the spot average price was - 84 yuan per ton [23]. Futures Inter - month Spread - The spread between the May and July egg futures contracts was 60 yuan per 500 kilograms, at a relatively high level compared to the same period [27]. Related Commodity Spot Prices - As of March 26, 2026, the average wholesale price of pork was 15.65 yuan per kilogram, a month - on - month decrease of 0.95%. The average wholesale price of 28 key monitored vegetables was 4.78 yuan per kilogram, a month - on - month decrease of 1.65% [33]. Group 3: Industrial Chain Supply - side: Inventory and Replenishment - As of December 31, 2025, the national laying - hen inventory index was 109.28, a month - on - month decrease of 2.45%. The national new - chick index was 71.99, a month - on - month decrease of 23.10% [39]. Culling of Laying Hens - As of December 31, 2025, the national culled laying - hen index was 124.98, a month - on - month increase of 23.52%. The average age of culled hens was 500 days [44]. Feed Raw Material Prices - As of March 26, 2026, the average spot price of corn was 2,452.55 yuan per ton, and the spot price of soybean meal in Fangcheng was 3,260 yuan per ton [48]. Feed Price and Breeding Profit - As of March 27, 2026, the breeding profit of laying hens was - 0.26 yuan per hen. As of March 20, 2026, the average price of laying - hen compound feed was 2.9 yuan per kilogram [54]. Egg - laying Hen Chick and Culled Hen Prices - As of March 20, 2026, the average price of egg - laying hen chicks in the main production areas was 3.6 yuan per chick, and the average price of culled hens was 10.52 yuan per kilogram [58]. Egg Monthly Exports - In February 2026, China's total egg exports were 10,796.37 tons, an increase of 81.63 tons or 0.76% year - on - year compared to 10,714.73 tons in the same period last year, and a decrease of 3,741.98 tons month - on - month compared to 14,538.34 tons in the previous month [63]. Group 4: Representative Company - The report also mentioned the price - earnings ratio change of Xiaoming Co., Ltd [65].
鸡蛋日报-20260325
Yin He Qi Huo· 2026-03-25 09:44
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 2: Core View of the Report - Due to the good profit performance in the early stage, the market's enthusiasm for culling has decreased, slowing down the overall capacity reduction. Considering that the egg consumption enters the off - season after the Spring Festival, although the inventory has been alleviated, the recent good egg price performance has weakened the overall capacity reduction. It is advisable to consider shorting the June contract on rallies [8] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: JD01 closed at 3690, up 8 from the previous day; JD05 closed at 3410, up 9; JD09 closed at 3793, up 10. The 01 - 05 spread was 280, down 1; 05 - 09 spread was - 383, down 1; 09 - 01 spread was 103, up 2. The ratios of 01, 05, and 09 eggs to corn and soybean meal all increased by 0.01 [2] - **Spot Market**: The average price in the main production areas was 3.31 yuan/jin, up 0.03 yuan/jin from the previous day; the average price in the main sales areas was 3.47 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day. Most of the national mainstream prices remained stable. The average price of culled chickens was 5.05 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day [2][4] 2. Fundamental Information - **Production and Sales**: In February, the national inventory of laying hens was 1.35 billion, an increase of 0.06 billion from the previous month and a year - on - year increase of 3.4%. The monthly output of laying hen chicks in February was about 43.3 million, with little change month - on - month and a year - on - year decrease of 5% [4] - **Culling**: In the week of March 5, the number of culled laying hens in the main production areas was 10.94 million, a 24% increase from the previous week. The average culling age was 502 days, an increase of 1 day from the previous week [5] - **Sales Volume**: As of the week of March 5, the egg sales volume in the representative sales areas was 7304 tons, a 1.5% increase from the previous week, at a relatively high level in the same period over the years [5] - **Profit**: As of the week of March 5, the weekly average profit per jin of eggs was - 0.29 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.06 yuan/jin from the previous week. On February 27, the expected profit of laying hen farming was - 11.85 yuan/feather, a decrease of 1.27 yuan/jin from the previous week [5] - **Inventory**: As of the week of March 5, the average weekly inventory in the production link was 1.22 days, a decrease of 0.04 days from the previous week; the average weekly inventory in the circulation link was 1.27 days, an increase of 0.02 days from the previous week [6][7] 3. Trading Logic - Due to the good profit performance in the early stage, the market's enthusiasm for culling has decreased, slowing down the overall capacity reduction. Considering the off - season of egg consumption after the Spring Festival and the recent good egg price performance, it is advisable to consider shorting the June contract on rallies [8] 4. Trading Strategy - **Single - side**: Consider shorting the June contract on rallies [9] - **Arbitrage**: It is recommended to wait and see [9] - **Options**: It is recommended to wait and see [9]
鸡蛋日报-20260324
Yin He Qi Huo· 2026-03-24 11:37
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Due to the good profit performance in the early stage, the market's enthusiasm for culling has decreased, slowing down the overall capacity reduction. Considering the post - Spring Festival egg consumption off - season, although the inventory has been alleviated, the recent good egg price performance has weakened the overall reduction. It is advisable to consider shorting the June contract on rallies [8] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market - **Futures Contract Prices**: JD01 closed at 3682, down 3 from the previous day; JD05 closed at 3401, down 42; JD09 closed at 3783, down 25 [2] - **Cross - month Spreads**: The 01 - 05 spread was 281, up 39; the 05 - 09 spread was - 382, down 17; the 09 - 01 spread was 101, down 22 [2] - **Ratio of Egg to Feed**: The 01 egg/corn ratio was 1.55, up 0.01; 05 egg/corn was 1.43, unchanged; 09 egg/corn was 1.57, up 0.01. The 01 egg/bean meal ratio was 1.20, up 0.01; 05 egg/bean meal was 1.15, up 0.00; 09 egg/bean meal was 1.25, unchanged [2] 2. Spot Market - **Egg Prices**: The average price in the main producing areas was 3.28 yuan/jin, up 0.01 yuan/jin from the previous day; the average price in the main selling areas was 3.47 yuan/jin, unchanged [4] - **Culled Chicken Prices**: The average price of culled chickens in the main producing areas was 5.05 yuan/jin, down 0.02 yuan/jin from the previous day [2] 3. Profit Calculation - **Cost and Profit**: The average price of culled chickens was 5.05 yuan/jin, down 0.02 yuan/jin; the average price of chicks was 3.21 yuan, up 0.04 yuan; the profit per chicken was 9.34 yuan, up 0.41 yuan from the previous day. The average price of corn was 2453 yuan, unchanged; the average price of bean meal was 3346 yuan, unchanged; the price of egg - laying chicken compound feed was 2.72 yuan, unchanged [2] 4. Fundamental Information - **Egg Production and Sales**: In February, the national laying hen inventory was 1.35 billion, an increase of 60 million from the previous month and a year - on - year increase of 3.4%. The monthly chick output of sample enterprises in February was 43.3 million, with little change month - on - month and a year - on - year decrease of 5% [4] - **Culled Chicken Statistics**: In the week of March 5th, the number of culled laying hens in the main producing areas was 10.94 million, a 24% increase from the previous week. The average culling age was 502 days, an increase of 1 day from the previous week [5] - **Egg Sales Volume**: As of the week of March 5th, the egg sales volume in the representative selling areas was 7304 tons, a 1.5% increase from the previous week, at a relatively high level in the same period over the years [5] - **Profit and Inventory**: As of March 5th, the weekly average profit per jin of eggs was - 0.29 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.06 yuan/jin from the previous week. The average inventory in the production link was 1.22 days, a decrease of 0.04 days from the previous week; the average inventory in the circulation link was 1.27 days, an increase of 0.02 days from the previous week [5][6][7] 5. Trading Strategy - **Single - side Trading**: Consider shorting the June contract on rallies [9] - **Arbitrage**: It is recommended to wait and see [9] - **Options**: It is recommended to wait and see [9]
瑞达期货鸡蛋产业日报-20260323
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2026-03-23 09:36
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The supply side has a relatively high inventory, and the elimination of old chickens is slow, resulting in sufficient overall supply. However, with schools fully reopened and factories back in operation, the pre - Qingming Festival stocking has started early, significantly boosting off - season demand. The feed cost has increased, and the breeding side is reluctant to sell and tries to hold up prices, leading to a rebound in spot prices. The rise in spot prices further weakens the expectation of a decline in laying - hen inventory. The egg futures market maintains a volatile trend, and short - term participation is recommended [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the active egg futures contract is 3443 yuan/500 kilograms, with a week - on - week increase of 34 [2] - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of eggs is - 1562 hands, with a week - on - week decrease of 2138 hands [2] - The monthly spread between the May and September egg futures contracts is - 365 yuan/500 kilograms, with a week - on - week increase of 20 [2] - The trading volume of the active egg futures contract is 153746 hands, with a week - on - week decrease of 11387 hands [2] - The registered warehouse receipt volume of eggs is 0 hands, with a week - on - week decrease of 5 hands [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of eggs is 3.32 yuan/jin, with a week - on - week increase of 0.02 yuan [2] - The basis (spot - futures) is - 127 yuan/500 kilograms, with a week - on - week decrease of 12 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national laying - hen inventory index is 109.28 (with 2015 = 100), with a month - on - month decrease of 2.75 [2] - The national eliminated laying - hen index is 124.98 (with 2015 = 100), with a month - on - month increase of 23.8 [2] - The average price of egg - laying chicken seedlings in the main production areas is 3.6 yuan/feather, with a week - on - week increase of 0.1 yuan [2] - The national new - chick index is 71.99 (with 2015 = 100), with a month - on - month decrease of 21.63 [2] - The average price of egg - laying chicken compound feed is 2.9 yuan/kg, with a week - on - week increase of 0.06 yuan [2] - The breeding profit of egg - laying chickens is - 0.32 yuan/head, with a week - on - week increase of 0.01 yuan [2] - The average price of eliminated chickens in the main production areas is 10.52 yuan/kg, with a week - on - week increase of 0.12 yuan [2] - The average age of eliminated chickens in the country is 500 days, with no change [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The average wholesale price of pork is 16.01 yuan/kg, with a week - on - week increase of 0.03 yuan [2] - The average wholesale price of 28 key - monitored vegetables is 4.87 yuan/kg, with a week - on - week increase of 0.01 yuan [2] - The average wholesale price of white - striped chickens is 17.58 yuan/kg, with a week - on - week increase of 0.21 yuan [2] - The weekly inventory in the circulation link is 1.17 days, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.1 day [2] - The weekly inventory in the production link is 1.07 days, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.15 day [2] - The monthly export volume of fresh eggs is 10796.36 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 3741.98 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly consumption of eggs in the sales areas is 6864 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 440 tons [2] 3.6 Industry News - The average price of eggs in Shandong, the main production area, is 6.54 yuan/kg, unchanged from yesterday; the average price of eggs in Hebei is 6.30 yuan/kg, up 0.12 yuan from yesterday; the average price of eggs in Guangdong is 7.27 yuan/kg, unchanged from yesterday; the average price of eggs in Beijing is 6.70 yuan/kg, up 0.10 yuan from yesterday [2]
一颗3元鸡蛋被检出「合成色素」,到底超标没?黄天鹅、胖东来纷纷「硬刚」打假人
36氪· 2026-03-18 00:20
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses a controversy surrounding high-end egg brands, particularly "Huang Tian E" and "Fat Dong Lai," which have been accused of using artificial colorants in their products, raising questions about consumer rights and product labeling [4][6][9]. Group 1: Incident Overview - The controversy began when Wang Hai's team reported that eggs sold by "Fat Dong Lai" tested positive for artificial colorant, specifically canthaxanthin, exceeding the national limit of 8 mg/kg with one sample showing 9.54 mg/kg [9][12]. - "Huang Tian E," known for its premium branding, faced significant backlash as the incident contradicted its claims of using natural feed and producing naturally golden yolks [4][17]. - Both "Huang Tian E" and "Fat Dong Lai" have initiated legal actions and further testing to defend their products and brand integrity [4][5]. Group 2: Brand Responses - "Huang Tian E" issued a statement claiming that their eggs do not contain artificial colorants and that the detected levels of canthaxanthin (0.399 mg/kg) are within natural background levels [14]. - "Fat Dong Lai" emphasized that their procurement processes are compliant with regulations and that they regularly conduct quality checks, asserting that their products meet national standards [14]. - The brands are currently in a back-and-forth dispute, each asserting their compliance with standards while questioning the validity of the other's claims [15]. Group 3: Consumer Rights and Regulatory Implications - The incident has shifted the focus of public discourse from product standards to consumer rights, with calls for clearer labeling and transparency regarding the use of colorants in egg production [6][12]. - Experts suggest that this controversy highlights the need for regulatory bodies to establish clear standards for colorant levels in eggs and other food products to protect consumer interests [19]. - The situation has raised awareness about the potential for natural sources of colorants in free-range eggs, prompting discussions on the safety and regulatory measures surrounding such practices [18][19].
中国食品安全网:黄天鹅涉嫌虚假宣传 提醒消费者擦亮眼睛
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2026-03-17 07:24
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the detection of artificial colorant, Canthaxanthin, in the eggs of the leading domestic brand Huang Tian E, which contradicts the company's long-standing claim of "no artificial colorants," suggesting potential false advertising [1][3]. Group 1: Detection Results - The first batch of Huang Tian E's eggs showed a Canthaxanthin residue level of 0.399 mg/kg, as reported by a third-party testing agency [1][3]. - A second batch purchased from Yonghui Supermarket revealed a Canthaxanthin residue level of 1.65 mg/kg, which is over three times the upper limit of what Huang Tian E claims is "natural" [2][4]. Group 2: Implications of Findings - The detection of Canthaxanthin at 1.65 mg/kg raises significant concerns about potential artificial additives, challenging the industry's understanding of natural components [2][4]. - Huang Tian E's repeated claims of their eggs being free from artificial colorants have been called into question, indicating possible misleading marketing practices [2][4].
一颗3元鸡蛋被检出“合成色素”,到底超标没?黄天鹅、胖东来纷纷“硬刚”打假人
新浪财经· 2026-03-16 10:10
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses a controversy involving the detection of artificial colorants in eggs sold by brands such as Huangtiange, Pang Donglai, and Deqingyuan, raising questions about consumer rights and product standards [3][4][10]. Group 1: Incident Overview - Wang Hai's team reported that multiple egg brands sold at Pang Donglai were found to contain artificial colorant canthaxanthin, with one brand exceeding the national limit for feed additives [10][14]. - Huangtiange, known for its premium positioning, faced significant backlash as the incident contradicted its branding of "natural" and "no additives" [19][20]. - The controversy has led to legal actions from Huangtiange, which claims that the reports have severely harmed its reputation and that it will pursue legal accountability [3][4]. Group 2: Responses from Companies - Pang Donglai announced that it would conduct comprehensive retests of the eggs and emphasized compliance with procurement regulations [4][15]. - Huangtiange stated that its eggs do not contain artificial colorants and that the detected levels of canthaxanthin are within natural background levels [15][19]. - Deqingyuan also asserted that it adheres strictly to legal standards and does not exceed the allowed limits for additives [15]. Group 3: Consumer Rights and Standards - The core issue has shifted from product standards to consumer rights, with calls for transparency regarding the sources of colorants in eggs [14][21]. - Experts suggest that there is a need for regulatory standards regarding the levels of canthaxanthin in eggs and other products, highlighting the importance of consumer safety [21][22]. - The incident has prompted discussions about the potential for consumer deception in marketing claims related to "natural" products [19][20].
鸡蛋周报:供需预期向好,蛋价小幅反弹-20260316
Hua Lian Qi Huo· 2026-03-16 02:15
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The spot price of eggs in the national market showed a slight rebound this week. The average price in the main producing areas was 3.03 yuan per catty, a 1.34% increase from last week. However, due to the seasonal off - peak season and insufficient terminal consumption, there is no continuous upward momentum [12][25]. - In February 2026, the national laying - hen inventory was about 1.296 billion, a 0.62% month - on - month increase and a 5.28% year - on - year increase. In March, the total laying - hen inventory will remain high with a slight downward trend, and the supply - side benefits are limited. The spot market still faces great pressure to sell off inventory [12][38]. - The overall replenishment volume in the second half of 2025 was low. The medium - term laying - hen inventory shows a definite downward trend, but the current absolute value is still high. If the old - hen culling rhythm accelerates as expected, the supply - side pressure is expected to be marginally reduced. The cost of feed raw materials is relatively stable, and the current egg price is close to the cost line, which provides bottom support for the egg price [15]. - The main contract has intensified short - term long - short games. After the off - peak season's negative factors are released, investors can try to go long with a light position based on the breeding cost line or buy call options for far - month contracts [15]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - long Viewpoint and Strategy - **Fundamental Viewpoint**: The spot price of eggs rebounded slightly. The laying - hen inventory in February increased, and in March, the inventory will remain high with a slight decline. The medium - term supply - demand expectation has improved. Attention should be paid to the culling of old hens, capacity reduction progress, and demand fulfillment [12]. - **Outlook**: The laying - hen inventory will decline in the medium term. If the culling of old hens accelerates and the number of newly - opened layers is limited, the supply - side pressure will be reduced. The stable feed cost and the egg price close to the cost line provide support for the egg price [15]. - **Strategy**: The main contract has intensified short - term long - short games. After the off - peak season's negative factors are released, investors can try to go long with a light position based on the breeding cost line or buy call options for far - month contracts [15]. 3.2 Spot - Futures Market - **Spot Price**: The national egg spot market rebounded slightly this week. The average price in the main producing areas was 3.03 yuan per catty, a 1.34% increase from last week. Due to the seasonal off - peak season, there is no continuous upward momentum [12][25]. - **Futures Price and Spread**: The report provides relevant charts of the closing price of the main egg futures contract, the basis between spot and futures, and the spreads between different contract months, but no specific analysis of the futures price and spread is provided. 3.3 Capacity - **Laying - Hen Inventory**: In February 2026, the national laying - hen inventory was about 1.296 billion, a 0.62% month - on - month increase and a 5.28% year - on - year increase. The number of newly - opened layers in February was small, and the number of culled old hens decreased during the Spring Festival. The number of newly - opened layers was greater than the number of culled old hens, resulting in a slight increase in the inventory [12][38]. - **Laying - Hen Proportion**: The proportion of main - producing laying hens has reached a new high, indicating that the short - term egg supply will remain abundant, which suppresses the egg price. The proportions of reserve laying hens and hens to be culled are at low levels, indicating that the farmers' willingness to replenish is cautious [41]. - **Replenishment Volume**: In February 2026, the sales volume of commercial - generation chicken seedlings of 15 representative enterprises was 42.22 million, a 7.76% month - on - month increase. In March, the farmers' enthusiasm for replenishment has generally increased, but some farmers are still cautious. It is expected that the chicken - seedling price will be stable and slightly stronger next month, with an average monthly price of 3.40 - 3.50 yuan per chick [45]. - **Culled - Hen Price and Quantity**: This week, the total culling volume of old hens in 19 representative markets in 10 key producing areas was 321,400, a 0.86% month - on - month decrease and an 18.32% year - on - year decrease. The culling sentiment of farmers has declined, and the overall culling volume has decreased slightly [48]. - **Culled - Hen Age**: This week, the average culling age of old hens was 492 days, a 0.20% month - on - month increase and an 8.04% year - on - year decrease. The available cullable hens are limited, and farmers mainly cull old hens with low egg - laying performance [51]. 3.4 Supply Side - The laying - hen inventory in February increased, and in March, the total inventory will remain high with a slight downward trend. The supply - side benefits are limited, and the spot market still faces great pressure to sell off inventory [12][38]. 3.5 Demand Side - **Sales Volume in Sales Areas**: The report provides relevant charts of the sales volume in the main sales areas and the national egg sales volume, but no specific analysis of the sales volume is provided. - **Substitute Prices**: The report provides relevant charts of the prices of substitute products such as white - striped chicken, pork, beef, and mutton, but no specific analysis of the substitute prices is provided. - **Seasonal Demand**: Egg prices show obvious seasonal characteristics. They usually reach the annual low around April, the first - half - year high at the end of May, the annual high from mid - to late September, and then decline and gradually stabilize from November to December [76]. 3.6 Cost and Profit - **Feed Price**: The egg cost is mainly affected by the prices of corn and soybean meal. The egg price, cost, and profit are generally positively correlated [82]. - **Laying - Hen Breeding Cost**: The feed cost accounts for about 80% of the total cost. The feed raw materials such as corn and soybean meal are relatively stable. The current egg price is close to the cost line, which provides bottom support for the egg price. It is expected that the egg feed cost in 2026 will decrease by 1% - 2% year - on - year [86]. - **Laying - Hen Breeding Profit**: This week, the cost per catty of eggs was 3.62 yuan, a 1.69% month - on - month increase and a 0.84% year - on - year increase. The profit was - 0.59 yuan per catty, a 3.51% month - on - month decrease and a 180.95% year - on - year decrease. The breeding cost per hen was 137.27 yuan, a 1.61% month - on - month increase and a 0.07% year - on - year increase. The breeding profit was - 6.92 yuan per hen, a 3.49% month - on - month increase and a 209.49% year - on - year decrease [93].
鸡蛋市场周报:高存栏压力仍存,盘面维持窄幅震荡-20260313
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2026-03-13 09:09
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the egg price showed a narrow - range slight increase. The closing price of the 2605 contract was 3433 yuan per 500 kilograms, a rise of 44 yuan per 500 kilograms compared to last week. The supply side has a relatively high inventory, and the elimination of old chickens has been slow recently, resulting in sufficient overall supply. The demand side is still in the post - holiday off - season, and the spot price maintains a low - level oscillation. However, with schools fully reopened, factories resuming work, and the early start of Tomb - Sweeping Festival stocking, the off - season demand has been significantly boosted. The feed cost is relatively stable, and the overall atmosphere in the breeding sector is better than previously expected. The egg futures market maintains an oscillating trend, and short - term participation is recommended [6]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Performance**: The egg price showed a narrow - range slight increase. The closing price of the 2605 contract was 3433 yuan per 500 kilograms, up 44 yuan per 500 kilograms from last week [6]. - **Market Outlook**: The supply side has high inventory and slow old - chicken elimination, with sufficient overall supply. The demand side is in the post - holiday off - season, and the spot price is low. But due to school openings, factory resumptions, and early Tomb - Sweeping Festival stocking, the off - season demand is boosted. The feed cost is stable, and the breeding atmosphere is better than expected. The egg futures market oscillates, and short - term participation is advisable [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price and Position**: The egg futures May contract closed higher with an oscillating trend. The trading volume was 168,259 lots, a decrease of 7,504 lots from last week. The net position of the top 20 was +669, compared with +1784 last week, showing a slight decrease in net long positions [13]. - **Futures Warehouse Receipts**: As of Friday, the number of registered egg warehouse receipts was 7 [17]. - **Spot Price and Basis**: The egg spot price was 3127 yuan per 500 kilograms, a rise of 156 yuan per 500 kilograms from last week. The basis between the May active contract futures price and the spot average price was - 306 yuan per ton [23]. - **Futures Inter - month Spread**: The spread between the May and July egg futures contracts was - 53 yuan per 500 kilograms, at a medium level in the same period [27]. - **Related Product Spot Prices**: As of March 12, 2026, the average wholesale price of pork was 16.5 yuan per kilogram, and the average wholesale price of 28 key - monitored vegetables was 4.94 yuan per kilogram [33]. 3.3 Industry Chain Situation - **Supply - side Indicators**: As of December 31, 2025, the national laying - hen inventory index was 109.28, a month - on - month decrease of 2.45%. The national new - chick index was 71.99, a month - on - month decrease of 23.10% [39]. - **Laying - hen Elimination Indicators**: As of December 31, 2025, the national laying - hen elimination index was 124.98, a month - on - month increase of 23.52%. The national average age of eliminated chickens was 500 days [44]. - **Feed Raw Material Prices**: As of March 12, 2026, the average spot price of corn was 2440.39 yuan per ton, and the spot price of soybean meal in Fangcheng was 3350 yuan per ton [48]. - **Feed Price and Breeding Profit**: As of March 6, 2026, the breeding profit per laying hen was - 0.35 yuan, and the average price of laying - hen compound feed was 2.80 yuan per kilogram [54]. - **Prices of Laying - hen Chicks and Eliminated Chickens**: As of March 6, 2026, the average price of laying - hen chicks in the main production areas was 3.5 yuan per chick, and the average price of eliminated chickens was 9.88 yuan per kilogram [58]. - **Egg Monthly Exports**: In December 2025, China's total egg exports were 14,898.72 tons, an increase of 2767.32 tons compared to the same period last year (12,131.40 tons), a year - on - year increase of 22.81%, and an increase of 1853.21 tons compared to the previous month (13,045.52 tons) [64]. 3.4 Representative Company - **Xiaoming Co., Ltd.**: The report shows the company's price - to - earnings ratio change, but no specific analysis is provided [66].