Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the rebar steel market is returning to fundamental logic, with both futures and spot prices experiencing declines as of September 1, with the main contract down 5% and spot prices in East China down 2.9% compared to early August [1] - The demand for rebar steel is expected to improve after September, entering the peak construction season, but the extent of this improvement will be a focal point for market speculation [2] - The inventory of rebar steel has increased for five consecutive weeks since hitting a low in late July, with a total increase of 848,000 tons, marking the first year-on-year growth in inventory this year [2] Group 2 - The futures market has seen a significant decline, with the main contract's discount to spot prices reaching 179 yuan/ton, leading to increased selling pressure in the spot market [3] - The supply of rebar steel is likely to increase initially and then decrease, with a temporary production restriction in North China expected to have a limited impact due to its short duration [4] - The profitability of steel mills remains relatively high, with over 60% of the 247 surveyed steel mills still profitable, but there is a risk of potential losses in the fourth quarter if supply increases and demand remains weak [4] Group 3 - Market focus may shift towards winter storage and outlook for next year, with expectations of monetary policy easing following the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts [5] - The short-term fundamentals are expected to remain weak, with seasonal demand likely falling short of expectations and supply anticipated to rise, suggesting further potential for price declines [5] - There is a possibility of price recovery in the fourth quarter due to policy support and potential production controls during the heating season [5]