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国泰海通|食饮:秋糖反馈平淡,重视成长标的
国泰海通证券研究· 2025-10-19 10:43
Core Viewpoint - The report emphasizes prioritizing growth while also focusing on undervalued traditional consumer leaders with strong long-term growth certainty, as consumption shows signs of recovery during the Mid-Autumn and National Day holidays, with both volume and price showing positive trends [1]. Group 1: Investment Recommendations - The beverage, snack, and food raw material sectors continue to demonstrate performance advantages, while expectations for the liquor industry are being revised upward, with some clearing out of inventory [2]. - Structural growth characteristics are evident in the beverage, snack, and food raw material sectors, driven by demographic changes, channel fragmentation, and category innovation, highlighting a comparative performance advantage [2][3]. - The liquor industry is currently experiencing a period of low expectations and weak realities, with the upcoming Q3 reports being a crucial observation window for potential recovery [2]. Group 2: Market Trends - The beverage sector remains structurally vibrant, driven by major products, while companies in food raw materials and health products are expected to maintain high growth or accelerate sequentially [3]. - The snack sector continues to exhibit growth momentum through category and channel innovation, reinforcing the overall growth narrative [3].