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【农林牧渔】政策驱动去库降重,猪价短期压力显现——光大证券农林牧渔行业周报(20250602-20250608)(李晓渊)
光大证券研究· 2025-06-08 13:28
Group 1: Pork Market - The average price of external three yuan pigs in China decreased to 14.05 yuan/kg, a week-on-week decline of 2.90% [2] - The average price of 15 kg piglets fell to 34.51 yuan/kg, down 2.38% week-on-week [2] - The market sentiment is weak due to sluggish post-holiday consumption demand and low demand for large pigs, leading to a continued strong supply and weak demand scenario [2] Group 2: Poultry Market - The price of white feather broilers is 7.32 yuan/kg, down 0.68% week-on-week, while chick prices are at 2.84 yuan/bird, a decrease of 1.05% [3] - The increase in frozen chicken inventory has reduced the purchasing enthusiasm of slaughter enterprises, resulting in a weak price for broilers [3] - The decline in broiler prices, combined with high summer temperatures, has led to a slowdown in orders for chicks [3] Group 3: Agricultural Products - The average spot price of corn increased to 2387.84 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.34% week-on-week, while soybean meal and wheat prices fell by 1.50% and 0.86%, respectively [4] - The supply of corn is tight in North China, but the new wheat harvest is putting pressure on the corn market [4] - The soybean meal supply is ample due to high production expectations from Argentina and the end of the Brazilian soybean harvest [4] Group 4: Natural Rubber Market - The domestic natural rubber futures price is 13695 yuan/ton, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 1.05% [5] - Supply disruptions due to weather conditions are expected to recover, but the overall market sentiment remains weak due to limited demand growth [5] - The production capacity utilization rate of tire companies is lower than the same period last year, indicating weak demand [5]