| 聚烯烃产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 2026年3月3日 | | | | 张晓珍 | Z0003135 | | 品种 | 3月2日 | 2月27日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | L2605收盘价 | eaal | 6597 | 394 | 5.97% | 元/吨 | | L2609收盘价 | 7071 | 6672 | 389 | 5.98% | | | PP2605收盘价 | 6988 | 6611 | 387 | 5.85% | | | PP2609 收盘价 | 7020 | 6627 | 393 | 5.93% | | | L59价差 | -80 | -75 | -5 | -6.67% | | | PP59价差 | -22 | -16 | -6 | -37.50% | | | LP05价差 | -7 | -14 | 7 | -50.00% | | | 华东PP拉丝现货价格 | 6900 | ୧୧୦୦ | 400 | 6.15% | | | 华北LLDPE现 ...

国泰君安期货·能源化工 天然橡胶周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·高琳琳 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002332 日期：2026年3月1日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 行业资讯 01 行情走势 02 基本面数据 03 本周观点总结 04 行业资讯 期货价格 基差与月差 其他价差 替代品价格 资金动向 供给 需求 库存 本周观点总结 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 行业资讯 1 行业资讯 3.【2025年美国轮胎进口量同比增加4.8%】最新数据显示，2025年美国进口轮胎累计28,615万条，同比增4.8%。其中，乘用车胎进口同比增3.3%至17,419 万条；卡客车胎进口同比增4.7%至6,150万条；航空器用胎同比降3%至28.2万条；摩托车用胎同比增11%至377万条；自行车用胎同比降9%至615万条。2025 年，美国自中国进口轮胎数量累计2,106万条，同比降15%。其中，乘用车胎同比降40%至95.9万条；卡客车胎同比降18%至128万条。 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 卓创资讯天然橡胶分析师 吴伟茹 【导语】2月14日，中国正式宣布中方将于2026年5月1日起对53个非洲建交国全面实施零关税举措，包 含天然橡胶产胶国科特迪瓦、利比里亚、尼日利亚、喀麦隆、加纳等主要产胶国，占非洲天然橡胶总产 量的98%左右。近些年非洲胶产量的增长成为全球产量增长的核心力量，且中国自科特迪瓦进口标准胶 占比逐渐提升，若执行零关税政策，中国自科特迪瓦的进口成本下降、进口量增长且对其他深色胶价格 与需求形成冲击，那么本文重点介绍当前非洲天然橡胶供给地位及产业优势现状。 全球天然橡胶产量增长内驱力——非洲橡胶 从全球天然橡胶产量供应结构趋势来看，近几年亚洲主产国产量变化仍是影响全球供应的核心，但全球 产量增长的核心力量来自于非洲胶及新兴产胶国产量增长，主要原因在于非洲因全球天然橡胶需求的增 长而吸引了更多投资，从而令近些年橡胶加工产能投放增长明显，2025年非洲市场橡胶加工产能接近 300万吨水平。凭借低廉的劳动力和土地成本，以及新技术和新品种的应用，非洲天然橡胶的单产得以 提升，进而推动了该地区天然橡胶产量的增长。一些非洲国家还出台 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the efforts of Zhang Shiying, a representative of the National People's Congress and the secretary of the Mengla County Committee, in promoting rural revitalization and economic development in Mengla County, Yunnan Province, by leveraging local resources and enhancing community engagement [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Development Initiatives - Mengla County plans to host a total of 344 large market events by 2025, attracting approximately 2.1 million tourists and generating sales of 43.9 million yuan, which will increase collective income by 7.01 million yuan [2]. - The county aims to transform its traditional rubber industry, which previously accounted for 70-80% of farmers' income, by addressing challenges such as low added value and high market risks, and by proposing the establishment of a national modern agricultural industrial park [2][3]. Group 2: Community Engagement and Infrastructure - Zhang Shiying emphasizes the importance of grassroots engagement, frequently visiting villages and local businesses to gather feedback and identify development bottlenecks, thereby fostering a collaborative approach to rural tourism and economic diversification [1][2]. - Infrastructure improvements in villages like Manlongle and Shanglongyin have led to the emergence of homestays and courtyard economies, extending the vibrancy of market activities into daily village life [1]. Group 3: Strategic Focus Areas - The focus is on enhancing border town construction by leveraging geographical advantages and developing characteristic industries, which will improve overall quality and efficiency [2]. - Zhang Shiying plans to propose suggestions at the upcoming National People's Congress regarding the development of under-forest economies, park economies, and border economies, aiming to convert resource advantages into industrial benefits and improve the welfare of local residents [3].

Group 1 - The core point of the announcement is the extension of the commitment period by the controlling shareholder, Hainan Agricultural Reclamation Investment Holding Group Co., Ltd., to resolve potential competition issues with the listed company [1][9] - The original commitment was made on July 11, 2017, to transfer all shares of KM Company and ART Company held by HSF(S) Pte. Ltd. to the listed company within 30 months, contingent on improving the asset quality and profitability of the listed company [1][2] - The commitment was extended on December 22, 2019, to December 31, 2025, due to the prolonged downturn in the natural rubber market and the underperformance of KM Company [3][4] Group 2 - The progress of the commitment includes the management rights of KM Company and ART Company being entrusted to the listed company since the original commitment was made [5] - The natural rubber industry is showing signs of recovery since 2024, with KM Company and ART Company stabilizing their profitability [7] - The controlling shareholder plans to resolve the competition issue through asset injection, which is deemed beneficial for the company's long-term development and strategic positioning in the natural rubber market [6][8] Group 3 - The new commitment extends the deadline to December 31, 2028, for transferring the shares of KM Company and ART Company to the listed company or a third party [11] - The decision to extend the commitment was approved by the board of directors with a unanimous vote, and it will be submitted for shareholder approval [12][13] - The extension is expected to help further resolve competition issues and align with regulatory requirements, ensuring no harm to the interests of the company and its shareholders [14]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information is provided in the report regarding industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Natural Rubber**: Current raw material prices have downside support, and the inventory accumulation rate is starting to converge or is about to reach an inflection point. It is recommended to continue holding long positions [2]. - **Methanol**: The methanol market has weak supply and demand. The inventory in the inland area has decreased slightly, and the port inventory has also decreased slightly. However, the MTO demand is weak, which suppresses the price rebound. The two key variables in the current market are the reduction rhythm of imported methanol due to low Iranian production and geopolitical uncertainties. The price may be volatile in the short - term [6]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: The soda ash market has strong supply and weak demand, and there is a possibility of further inventory accumulation in the future. It is expected to be volatile in the short - term, with a reference range of 1150 - 1250 yuan/ton. The glass market has high inventory, which restricts the upward space. It is recommended to pay attention to the performance of glass at 1000 yuan/ton and consider short - selling with a light position [8]. - **Polyolefins**: The spot price of polyolefins changes little, and the market is mainly for hedging purchases. The basis weakens. The static fundamentals show a decrease in both supply and demand and a slight accumulation of inventory. The upstream inventory is low and has a strong willingness to hold prices. In the short - term, the price increase space and sustainability are expected to be restricted [10]. - **Urea**: The urea supply is sufficient, and the daily output has further increased to 210,000 tons. The inventory reduction rhythm has slowed down. The industrial demand is decreasing, and the agricultural fertilizer preparation is in progress. The overall trading atmosphere is weak. The short - term price increase is mainly a hedging reaction, and the upward space may be limited. The main contract of urea should focus on the 1760 - 1820 yuan/ton range [11]. - **PVC and Caustic Soda**: The caustic soda market has an imbalance between supply and demand, with high inventory and weak demand. The cost provides some support, and the market may be in a volatile adjustment in the short - term. The PVC market has a weak fundamental situation. The inventory is increasing, and the cost support varies. The short - term price is expected to be easy to rise but difficult to fall, and the main contract should focus on the 4900 - 5300 yuan/ton range [13]. - **Crude Oil**: The uncertainty of the US - Iran negotiation is still large. In the short - term, the oil price is boosted by geopolitical fluctuations, but the weak supply - demand expectation of crude oil still suppresses the increase. The short - term Brent crude oil may operate in the range of 63 - 70 US dollars/barrel [14]. - **LPG**: The LPG price has increased slightly. The inventory of LPG refineries has increased slightly, while the port inventory has decreased. The upstream refinery operating rate has increased, and the downstream PDH operating rate has decreased. The short - term market trend needs to be further observed [17]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: The supply - demand situation of pure benzene is gradually improving, but due to the import pressure and high port inventory, its own driving force is limited, and the price may follow the oil price and downstream styrene. The styrene industry profit is good, but the supply - demand is expected to be loose in February. The rebound space is limited under the high - valuation and weak supply - demand expectation [19]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Natural Rubber - **Price and Basis**: On February 4, the price of Yunnan state - owned whole - latex rubber (SCRWF) in Shanghai increased by 200 yuan/ton to 16,100 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 1.26%. The basis of whole - latex decreased by 5 yuan/ton to - 285 yuan/ton, with a decline rate of 1.79% [2]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, the production of natural rubber in Thailand, Indonesia, and India increased, while that in China decreased. The weekly operating rates of semi - steel and all - steel tires changed slightly. The domestic tire production and export volume increased in December, and the import volume of natural rubber also increased significantly [2]. - **Inventory**: The bonded area inventory in Qingdao increased by 7,185 tons to 591,689 tons, with a growth rate of 1.23%. The factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 174 tons to 53,625 tons, with a decline rate of 3.10% [2]. Methanol - **Price and Spread**: On February 4, the closing price of MA2605 increased by 32 yuan/ton to 2,279 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 1.42%. The MA59 spread decreased by 4 yuan/ton to - 36 yuan/ton, with a decline rate of 12.50% [6]. - **Inventory**: The methanol enterprise inventory decreased by 55,800 tons to 368,900 tons, with a decline rate of 13.14%. The methanol port inventory decreased by 61,000 tons to 1.411 million tons, with a decline rate of 4.14% [6]. - **Operating Rate**: The upstream domestic enterprise operating rate increased by 0.15 percentage points to 77.56%, and the upstream overseas enterprise operating rate decreased by 8.67 percentage points to 52.2% [6]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Price and Spread**: On February 2, the price of glass and soda ash in different regions remained stable. The glass 2605 contract increased by 37 yuan/ton to 1,109 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 3.45%. The soda ash 2605 contract increased by 28 yuan/ton to 1,229 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 2.33% [8]. - **Supply**: The soda ash production rate decreased by 2.58 percentage points to 84.19%, and the weekly production increased by 11,000 tons to 783,100 tons, with a growth rate of 1.48%. The daily melting volume of float glass decreased slightly, and the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass decreased by 250 tons to 86,960 tons, with a decline rate of 0.29% [8]. - **Inventory**: The glass factory - warehouse inventory decreased by 652,000 weight boxes to 52.564 million weight boxes, with a decline rate of 1.22%. The soda ash factory - warehouse inventory increased by 23,000 tons to 1.5442 million tons, with a growth rate of 1.51% [8]. Polyolefins - **Price and Spread**: On February 4, the closing price of L2605 increased by 53 yuan/ton to 6,918 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 0.77%. The L59 spread decreased by 6 yuan/ton to - 57 yuan/ton, with a decline rate of 11.76% [10]. - **Inventory**: The PE enterprise inventory increased by 56,700 tons to 379,700 tons, with a growth rate of 17.55%. The PP enterprise inventory decreased by 32,000 tons to 432,900 tons, with a decline rate of 7.39% [10]. - **Operating Rate**: The PE device operating rate decreased by 3.08 percentage points to 81.59%, and the PP device operating rate increased by 0.40 percentage points to 76.02% [10]. Urea - **Price and Spread**: On February 4, the urea futures fluctuated and rose. The 01 - 05 contract spread decreased by 2 yuan/ton to - 42 yuan/ton, with a decline rate of 5.00% [11]. - **Supply and Demand**: The domestic urea daily production increased by 8,700 tons to 211,100 tons, with a growth rate of 4.28%. The inventory in the factory decreased by 26,400 tons to 918,500 tons, with a decline rate of 2.79% [11]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Price and Spread**: On February 4, the price of PVC in East China increased. The V2605 contract increased by 84 yuan/ton to 5,155 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 1.7%. The V2605 - V2609 spread increased by 13 yuan/ton to - 99 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 11.6% [13]. - **Supply and Demand**: The caustic soda industry operating rate increased by 0.6 percentage points to 91.4%, and the PVC total operating rate decreased by 0.9 percentage points to 77.1% [13]. - **Inventory**: The PVC upstream factory - warehouse inventory decreased by 18,000 tons to 290,000 tons, with a decline rate of 5.8%. The PVC total social inventory increased by 8,000 tons to 585,000 tons, with a growth rate of 1.4% [13]. Crude Oil - **Price and Spread**: On February 4, Brent crude oil increased by 2.13 US dollars/barrel to 69.46 US dollars/barrel, with a growth rate of 3.16%. The Brent - WTI spread increased by 0.20 US dollars/barrel to 4.32 US dollars/barrel, with a growth rate of 4.85% [14]. - **Fundamentals**: Affected by the uncertainty of the US - Iran negotiation and the US cold wave, the US crude oil production decreased significantly, and the inventory of crude oil and oil products decreased more than expected, but the gasoline inventory increased [14]. LPG - **Price and Spread**: On February 4, the main PG2603 contract increased by 57 yuan/ton to 4,251 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 1.36%. The PG03 - 04 spread decreased by 12 yuan/ton to - 265 yuan/ton, with a decline rate of 4.74% [17]. - **Inventory**: The LPG refinery storage capacity ratio increased by 0.2 percentage points to 24.6%, and the LPG port inventory decreased by 121,000 tons to 1.88 million tons, with a decline rate of 6.05% [17]. - **Operating Rate**: The upstream main - refinery operating rate increased by 1.24 percentage points to 80.02%, and the downstream PDH operating rate decreased by 1.53 percentage points to 60.7% [17]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Price and Spread**: On February 4, the Brent crude oil price increased by 2.13 US dollars/barrel to 69.46 US dollars/barrel, with a growth rate of 3.2%. The EB - BZ spot spread increased by 40 yuan/ton to 1,780 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 2.3% [19]. - **Inventory**: The pure benzene inventory in Jiangsu ports decreased by 9,000 tons to 296,000 tons, with a decline rate of 3.0%. The styrene inventory in Jiangsu ports increased by 8,000 tons to 108,600 tons, with a growth rate of 8.0% [19]. - **Operating Rate**: The Asian pure benzene operating rate increased by 0.6 percentage points to 77.6%, and the styrene operating rate decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 69.3% [19].

Group 1 - Intercontinental Oil and Gas focuses on oil exploration and development, with significant operations in Kazakhstan and the Malacca Strait, benefiting from the Hainan Free Trade Port's zero-tariff policy which will reduce equipment import costs and enhance cross-border energy trade efficiency, with a projected 30% increase in trade scale over the next three years [1][34] - Jinpan Technology, a leading manufacturer of high-end power distribution equipment, will benefit from reduced raw material costs and a 15% corporate income tax reduction, enhancing profitability and enabling expansion into the ASEAN power equipment market [2][35] - Hainan Airlines, a major player in the aviation sector, expects a significant increase in passenger traffic due to the visa-free policy for 86 countries and duty-free upgrades, with projected passenger volume exceeding 80 million by 2026 [3][36] Group 2 - Junda Co., a top photovoltaic cell manufacturer, anticipates growth in its solar business due to reduced equipment costs and tax incentives, with plans to participate in Hainan's integrated wind and solar storage projects [4][37] - Caesar Travel, a comprehensive tourism service provider, expects a doubling of cross-border tourism business and a significant increase in tourist arrivals, with projections of 180 million visitors by 2026 [5][38] - Xinda A, a diversified company focusing on motorcycle manufacturing and coal mining, aims to leverage the zero-tariff policy to enhance profitability and expand into the electric vehicle market [6][39] Group 3 - ST Huluwawa, a leading pediatric pharmaceutical company, will benefit from reduced raw material costs and tax incentives, with plans to expand into the ASEAN pharmaceutical market [8][40] - Hainan Ruize, a construction industry leader, anticipates a surge in infrastructure demand with projected investments exceeding 100 billion by 2026, benefiting from the Hainan Free Trade Port's policies [9][42] - Hainan Airport, a key player in airport operations, expects a doubling of cargo business and significant passenger growth due to the visa-free policy and duty-free upgrades [10][43] Group 4 - Hainan Development, an investment platform, anticipates a substantial increase in duty-free sales, projected to exceed 100 billion by 2026, benefiting from the Hainan Free Trade Port's policies [11][45] - Hainan Highway, a major highway operator, expects a significant increase in traffic volume, projected to exceed 200 million vehicles by 2026, benefiting from the integration of tourism and real estate [20][56] - Hainan Rubber, the world's largest natural rubber producer, aims to expand its market presence in ASEAN due to favorable trade policies and tax incentives [21][57]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports 2. Core Views Polyester Industry - **PX**: The overall supply and demand of PX and PTA in Q1 are weaker than expected, with limited self - driving force before the Spring Festival. However, due to the expected tight supply - demand in Q2, the low - price support for PX is strong. It is expected to fluctuate at a high level with limited drive, with a short - term range of 7200 - 7600 and a long - term bullish view [1]. - **PTA**: Although the market is optimistic about the Q2 supply - demand, in the short term, with high valuation and weak reality, the drive is limited. It is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the range of 5200 - 5500, and TA5 - 9 is recommended for low - position positive hedging in the medium term [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply - demand pattern is weak in the near term and strong in the long term. In the near term, there is pressure on inventory accumulation, while in Q2, the supply is expected to shrink, and it is possible to reduce inventory. Strategies include EG5 - 9 positive hedging at low prices and holding the seller of put option EG2605 - P - 3800 [1]. - **Short - fiber**: The overall supply - demand pattern is weak. The supply remains high, and demand decreases near the Spring Festival. The price of the spot is relatively firm. The strategy is the same as PTA, and the PF processing fee on the disk is expected to fluctuate between 800 - 1000, and it is advisable to shrink the spread when it is high [1]. - **Polyester Bottle - chip**: With the implementation of maintenance plans, the domestic supply is expected to decline significantly, and the inventory is decreasing. The absolute price and processing fee are expected to follow the cost side. PR2603 is recommended to pay attention to the support around 6200, and the processing fee on the main PR contract is expected to fluctuate between 400 - 550 yuan/ton [1]. LPG Industry - The report does not provide a clear overall view, but shows price increases in some LPG futures contracts and changes in inventory and upstream - downstream operating rates [2]. Natural Rubber Industry - The supply is shrinking, and the cost support is strengthening. The demand for some export - oriented semi - steel tire enterprises is sufficient, but the domestic sales are slow. The inventory in Qingdao is decreasing. The rubber price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, but there is still significant pressure at the 16500 level [4]. Glass - Soda Ash Industry - **Soda Ash**: The spot price fluctuates in a narrow range. The supply is still high, and the demand is mainly for fulfilling orders. The inventory decreased last week but is still high year - on - year. The futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly [7]. - **Glass**: The spot price is stable, and the market transaction is average. The supply and demand are both weak, and the inventory has increased slightly. The futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly, and attention should be paid to changes in production lines and inventory [7]. PVC - Caustic Soda Industry - **Caustic Soda**: The futures price rebounded slightly, but the spot price continued to decline. The supply - demand imbalance remains, with high inventory and weak demand. The futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly, and attention should be paid to the impact of downstream procurement and price fluctuations [8]. - **PVC**: The futures price fluctuated weakly, and the spot price was weakly stable. The supply - demand has not improved, with supply exceeding demand and inventory accumulation pressure. The cost support has increased, and the policy support is insufficient. The disk is expected to fluctuate and correct, with the main contract focusing on the 4820 - 5000 range [8]. Urea Industry - The futures price rose and then fell, and the spot price increased. The supply is sufficient, and the industrial demand is average, while the agricultural demand is warming up. The urea factory's pre - Spring Festival order - receiving pressure is not significant. The market is expected to fluctuate slightly before the Spring Festival, and the main contract is recommended to focus on the 1760 - 1820 range [9]. Crude Oil Industry - International oil prices continued to rise sharply. Affected by the winter storm in the US, production decreased, EIA data showed a decline in commercial inventory and a small increase in refined oil inventory. The production of the Tengiz oilfield in Kazakhstan recovered slowly, and the US had a tough stance on Iran. Short - term positive factors still exist, and attention should be paid to geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East [11]. Methanol Industry - The futures price fluctuated in a narrow range at a high level, and the spot was purchased on demand. The supply and demand in the methanol market are both weak. The inventory in the inland area decreased, but high production and pre - Spring Festival inventory clearance limited the rebound. The port inventory increased slightly, and the MTO demand was weak. Key variables include the reduction rhythm of imported methanol and geopolitical risks [13]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - **Pure Benzene**: The price rebounded, but the port inventory increased unexpectedly. With the improvement of disproportionation profit, some devices are expected to restart, and the import is expected to increase. The price is expected to face pressure at a high level, and it is advisable to wait and see and shrink the EB - BZ spread when it is high [15]. - **Styrene**: The load remains high under high profit, but the supply - demand is expected to weaken. The port inventory increased slightly, and the price is expected to face pressure at a high level. It is advisable to wait and see and shrink the EB - BZ spread when it is high [15]. Polyolefin Industry - The prices of LLDPE and PP are strong, driven by capital and geopolitical tensions. The static fundamentals show a decrease in supply and demand and inventory reduction, with low upstream inventory and strong price - holding intention. For PP, the supply pressure is relieved by maintenance; for PE, the pressure on standard products increases, and the downstream demand enters the off - season. Attention should be paid to spot transactions, inventory, and macro - sentiment [17]. 3. Summaries by Directory Polyester Industry - **Downstream Polyester Products**: POY150/48 price increased by 1.2%, FDY150/96 price remained unchanged, DTY150/48 price remained unchanged, etc. The cash - flow of some products changed, such as POY150/48 cash - flow decreased by 9.5% [1]. - **Upstream Prices**: Brent crude (March) increased by 1.23%, WTI crude (March) increased by 1.31%, CFR Japan naphtha increased by 2.8%, etc. [1]. - **PX - related**: CFR China PX decreased by 0.6%, PX spot price (RMB) decreased by 0.8%, PX - naphtha spread decreased by 6.1%, etc. [1]. - **PTA - related**: PTA East China spot price increased by 0.2%, TA05 - TA09 spread decreased by 62.5%, PTA spot processing fee increased by 4.8%, etc. [1]. - **MEG - related**: MEG East China spot price decreased by 0.2%, EG05 - EG09 spread decreased by 5.7%, MEG port inventory increased by 7.9%, etc. [1]. LPG Industry - **LPG Prices and Spreads**: The prices of PG2603, PG2604, and PG2605 increased, and the spreads such as PG03 - 04 and PG03 - 05 changed [2]. - **LPG Outer - market Prices**: FEI swap M1 and M2 contracts, CP swap M1 and M2 contracts all decreased [2]. - **LPG Inventory**: LPG refinery storage capacity ratio increased by 5.23%, LPG port inventory decreased by 1.53%, LPG port storage capacity ratio decreased by 1.36% [2]. - **LPG Upstream - downstream Operating Rates**: The main refinery operating rate increased by 1.99%, the PDH operating rate decreased by 14.81%, etc. [2]. Natural Rubber Industry - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The price of Yunnan state - owned whole latex increased by 0.63%, the basis decreased by 15.49%, the price of Thai standard mixed glue increased by 0.66%, etc. [4]. - **Monthly Spreads**: 9 - 1 spread decreased by 4.35%, 1 - 5 spread increased by 2.40%, 5 - 9 spread increased by 23.08% [4]. - **Fundamental Data**: The production of Thailand in November decreased by 9.39%, the production of Indonesia decreased by 2.58%, the production of China increased by 20.88%, etc. The operating rates of semi - steel and all - steel tires changed, and the tire production and export volume in December increased [4]. - **Inventory Changes**: The bonded area inventory decreased by 0.07%, the futures inventory of natural rubber in SHFE decreased by 2.49%, etc. [4]. Glass - Soda Ash Industry - **Glass - related Prices and Spreads**: North China, East China, Central China, and South China glass prices remained unchanged, glass2605 and glass2609 prices increased slightly, and the 05 basis decreased by 1.79% [7]. - **Soda Ash - related Prices and Spreads**: North China, East China, Central China, and Northwest soda ash prices remained unchanged, soda2605 and soda2609 prices increased slightly, and the 05 basis decreased by 7.14% [7]. - **Supply and Demand**: The soda ash operating rate decreased by 0.46%, the weekly production decreased by 0.46%, the float glass daily melting volume increased by 0.20%, etc. [7]. - **Inventory**: The glass factory warehouse inventory increased by 0.38%, the soda ash factory warehouse inventory decreased by 0.16%, and the glass factory's soda ash inventory days increased by 0.43% [7]. - **Real Estate Data**: The year - on - year changes in new construction, construction, completion, and sales areas of real estate showed different trends [7]. PVC - Caustic Soda Industry - **PVC and Caustic Soda Spot & Futures**: The prices of Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda decreased by 0.7%, East China calcium carbide - based PVC decreased by 0.2%, etc. [8]. - **Caustic Soda Overseas Quotes & Export Profits**: FOB Middle East port price decreased by 1.4%, export profit increased by 0.6% [8]. - **PVC Overseas Quotes & Export Profits**: CFR Southeast Asia price increased by 4.8%, FOB Tianjin Port calcium carbide - based price decreased by 1.7%, export profit decreased by 577.7% [8]. - **Supply: Chlor - alkali Operating Rate & Industry Profit**: The caustic soda industry operating rate increased by 1.9%, the PVC operating rate decreased by 1.4%, the profit of externally purchased calcium carbide - based PVC decreased by 15.0%, etc. [8]. - **Demand: Caustic Soda Downstream Operating Rate**: The alumina industry operating rate decreased by 2.3%, the viscose staple fiber industry operating rate remained unchanged, the printing and dyeing industry operating rate decreased by 3.8% [8]. - **Demand: PVC Downstream Products Operating Rate**: The Longzhong sample pipe operating rate increased by 4.5%, the profile operating rate increased by 5.4%, the PVC pre - sales volume decreased by 4.5% [8]. - **Caustic Soda Inventory: Social and Factory Inventory**: The liquid caustic soda East China factory warehouse inventory increased by 5.5%, the Shandong inventory decreased by 0.4%, the PVC upstream factory warehouse inventory decreased by 0.9%, the PVC total social inventory increased by 2.7% [8]. Urea Industry - **Futures Revenue Prices**: The 01, 05, and 09 contracts of urea increased, and the methanol main contract increased by 1.52% [9]. - **Futures Contract Spreads**: 01 - 05 spread decreased by 16.67%, 05 - 09 spread increased by 31.82%, UR - MA main contract spread decreased by 6.16% [9]. - **Main Positions**: The long - position of the top 20 increased by 0.99%, the short - position of the top 20 increased by 6.89% [9]. - **Upstream Raw Materials**: The prices of anthracite small pieces, thermal coal pit - mouth, and port prices remained unchanged, and the synthetic ammonia price decreased by 0.09% [9]. - **Spot Market Prices**: The prices of urea in Shandong, Shanxi, Henan, etc., showed different changes [9]. - **Cross - regional Spreads**: The spreads between Shandong - Henan, Guangdong - Henan, and Guangdong - Shanxi remained unchanged [9]. - **Basis**: The basis in Shandong, Shanxi, Henan, and Guangdong changed [9]. - **Downstream Products**: The prices of melamine, compound fertilizers, etc., remained unchanged, and the price of ammonium sulfate increased by 1.35%, the price of sulfur decreased by 1.50% [9]. - **Supply - demand Overview**: The daily production of domestic urea increased by 2.64%, the coal - based urea daily production increased by 3.92%, the gas - based urea daily production decreased by 4.90%, etc. [9]. Crude Oil Industry - **Crude Oil Prices and Spreads**: Brent increased by 1.23%, WTI increased by 1.31%, SC increased by 1.47%, and the spreads such as Brent M1 - M3, WTI M1 - M3, and SC M1 - M3 changed [11]. - **Refined Oil Prices and Spreads**: NYM RBOB increased by 1.45%, NYM ULSD increased by 0.75%, ICE Gasoil increased by 2.08%, and the spreads such as RBOB M1 - M3, ULSD M1 - M3, and Gasoil M1 - M3 changed [11]. - **Refined Oil Crack Spreads**: The crack spreads of US gasoline, European gasoline, Singapore gasoline, etc., changed [11]. Methanol Industry - **Methanol Prices and Spreads**: MA2605 and MA2609 prices increased, MA59 spread decreased by 16.00%, Taicang basis decreased by 28.57%, etc. [13]. - **Methanol Outer - market Prices**: The lowest CFR China price decreased by 0.10% [13]. - **Methanol Inventory**: The methanol enterprise inventory decreased by 3.12%, the social inventory increased by 0.05%, and the port inventory increased by 1.00% [13]. - **Methanol Upstream - downstream Operating Rates**: The domestic enterprise operating rate decreased by 0.64%, the northwest enterprise sales - production ratio decreased by 3.28%, the external MTO device operating rate decreased by 1.56%, etc. [13]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - **Upstream Prices and Spreads**: Brent crude and WTI crude prices increased, CFR Japan naphtha increased by 2.8%, CFR Northeast Asia ethylene remained unchanged, CFR China pure benzene increased by 1.5%, etc. [15]. - **Styrene - related Prices and Spreads**: Styrene East China spot price increased by 1.3%, EB2603 and EB2604 prices increased, EB basis (03) decreased by 14.3%, etc. [15]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene Downstream Cash - flows**: The cash - flows of phenol, caprolactam, aniline, etc., changed [15]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene Inventory**: The pure benzene Jiangsu port inventory increased by 2.7%, the styrene Jiangsu port inventory increased by 7.6% [15]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry Chain Operating Rates**: The Asian pure benzene operating rate remained unchanged, the domestic pure benzene operating rate decreased by 2.5%, etc. [15]. Polyolefin Industry - **L2605, L2609, PP2605, PP2609 Prices**: The prices of these contracts increased [17]. - **Spreads**: L59 spread decreased by 54.84%, PP59 spread remained unchanged, LP05 spread decreased by 0.53% [17]. - **Spot Prices**: The East China PP拉丝, North China LLDPE spot prices increased [17]. - **Basis**: The North China LL basis decreased by 18.75%, the East China pp basis remained unchanged [17]. - **PE and PP Standard Prices**: The prices of East China LDPE, HD film, HD injection, etc., changed [17]. - **PE Upstream - downstream Operating Rates**: The PE device operating rate increased by 3.77%, the PE downstream weighted operating rate decreased by 3.42% [17]. - **PE and PP Inventory**: The PE enterprise inventory decreased by 3.58%, the PE social inventory increased by

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. Core Views Natural Rubber - The supply is shrinking as northern Thailand and northern - central Vietnam transition to reduced production and suspension of tapping, and overseas raw material prices are likely to rise, strengthening cost support. Demand is weak, with slow domestic sales and high inventory. The price is expected to fluctuate within the range of 15,500 - 16,500 [1]. Polyolefins - Affected by capital rotation and geopolitical tensions, prices are strong. Fundamentally, supply and demand are both decreasing, and inventory is being depleted. PP's supply pressure is relieved due to maintenance, while PE's standard product pressure increases. In the future, attention should be paid to the implementation of marginal device maintenance [2]. LPG - The price is affected by factors such as inventory and upstream - downstream operating rates. The downstream PDH operating rate has decreased significantly, and the market situation needs to be further observed [3]. Urea - The supply is sufficient, and demand is weak. The market is expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the short - term, with the main contract of urea focusing on the range of 1,760 - 1,800 [4]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Caustic soda is expected to be weakly volatile due to high inventory and weak demand. PVC is expected to have a downward adjustment in the market, with the main contract focusing on the range of 4,820 - 5,000 [6]. Glass and Soda Ash - Both glass and soda ash are expected to have a weakly volatile market. Soda ash is affected by inventory and demand, while glass is in a situation of weak supply and demand during the pre - holiday off - season [7]. Styrene and Pure Benzene - Pure benzene's price may be under pressure at high levels due to factors such as increased import expectations. Styrene's supply - demand is expected to weaken, and its price is also expected to be under pressure at high levels [8]. Crude Oil - Short - term geopolitical premiums and supply - side factors support the rise in oil prices. Attention should be paid to changes in geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East [10]. Methanol - The methanol market has weak supply and demand. The inventory in the inland area is being depleted, but high production restricts the rebound space. The port inventory is slightly increasing, and the demand for MTO is weak [14]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX, PTA, and other products are affected by factors such as supply - demand and seasonality. PX and PTA are expected to fluctuate in the short - term and be bullish in the medium - term. Ethylene glycol has a pattern of weak near - term and strong far - term supply - demand [16]. Summary by Related Catalogs Natural Rubber - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The prices of Yunnan state - owned full - latex, Thai standard mixed rubber, etc. have changed to varying degrees, and the basis has also fluctuated [1]. - **Monthly Spreads**: The spreads between different contracts have changed, such as the 9 - 1 spread and 1 - 5 spread [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: Thailand, Indonesia, and other countries' production in November has changed, and indicators such as tire production, export volume, and import volume in December have also changed [1]. - **Inventory Changes**: The inventory of bonded areas and factory warehouses has changed, and the inbound and outbound rates of dry glue in Qingdao have also changed [1]. Polyolefins - **Prices and Spreads**: The closing prices of L2605, PP2605, etc. have decreased, and the spreads between different contracts have also changed [2]. - **Upstream - Downstream Operating Rates and Inventory**: The operating rates of PE and PP devices and downstream industries have changed, and the inventory of enterprises and society has decreased [2]. LPG - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of PG2603, PG2604, etc. have decreased, and the spreads between different contracts and the basis have changed [3]. - **Inventory and Upstream - Downstream Operating Rates**: LPG refinery storage capacity ratio has increased, port inventory has decreased, and upstream - downstream operating rates have changed [3]. Urea - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: The prices of urea futures contracts have fluctuated, and the spreads between different contracts have changed [4]. - **Supply - Demand and Inventory**: Domestic urea daily and weekly production has increased, inventory has decreased, and demand is weak [4]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Spot and Futures Prices**: The prices of PVC and caustic soda spot and futures have decreased to varying degrees [6]. - **Overseas Quotes and Export Profits**: The overseas quotes and export profits of PVC and caustic soda have changed [6]. - **Supply and Demand**: The operating rates of the chlor - alkali industry and downstream industries have changed, and inventory has increased [6]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of glass and soda ash spot and futures have decreased, and the basis has changed [7]. - **Supply and Inventory**: The production and inventory of glass and soda ash have changed, and real - estate data has also changed [7]. Styrene and Pure Benzene - **Upstream Prices and Spreads**: The prices of Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, etc. have increased, and the spreads between different products have changed [8]. - **Styrene - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of styrene spot and futures have decreased, and the spreads and cash flows have changed [8]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: The inventory of pure benzene and styrene in Jiangsu ports has increased, and the operating rates of related industries have changed [8]. Crude Oil - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of Brent, WTI, and SC crude oil have changed, and the spreads between different products and contracts have also changed [10]. - **Refined Oil Prices and Spreads**: The prices of NYM RBOB, NYM ULSD, etc. have increased, and the spreads between different contracts have changed [10]. - **Refined Oil Crack Spreads**: The crack spreads of refined oil in different regions have changed [10]. Methanol - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of MA2605, MA2609, etc. have decreased, and the spreads and basis have changed [14]. - **Inventory and Upstream - Downstream Operating Rates**: Methanol enterprise and port inventory have changed, and upstream - downstream operating rates have also changed [14]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Upstream Prices**: The prices of Brent crude oil, CFR Japan naphtha, etc. have changed [16]. - **Downstream Polyester Product Prices and Cash Flows**: The prices and cash flows of POY, FDY, etc. have changed [16]. - **PX - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices and spreads of PX have changed [16]. - **PTA - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices and spreads of PTA have changed [16]. - **MEG - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices and spreads of MEG have changed, and inventory and operating rates have also changed [16].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since December 2025, the prices of Chinese chemical products have bottomed out and rebounded, with a trend reversal. As of January 26, 2026, the Chinese chemical product price index rose to 4084, a month - on - month increase of 4.2%. The year - on - year decline in PPI of the chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing and chemical fiber manufacturing industries in December has narrowed, indicating that the industry's price pressure is continuously easing [1]. - The newly revised "Regulations for the Implementation of the Drug Administration Law of the People's Republic of China" was announced on the 27th and will come into effect on May 15. Encouraging innovation is a prominent feature of this revision [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Upstream - **Chemical**: The price of PTA continues to rise [1]. - **Energy**: The prices of international crude oil and liquefied natural gas have rebounded [1]. 3.2 Midstream - **Chemical**: The PX operating rate remains at a high level [2]. - **Energy**: The coal consumption of power plants continues at a low level [2]. - **Infrastructure**: The operating rate of road asphalt is at a low level [2]. 3.3 Downstream - **Real Estate**: The sales of commercial housing in first, second, and third - tier cities have seasonally declined [2]. - **Service**: The number of domestic flights has increased [2]. 3.4 Key Industry Price Indicators - **Agriculture**: On January 27, the spot prices of corn, eggs, palm oil, cotton, and pork increased year - on - year by 0.19%, 5.81%, 2.46%, 0.64%, and 0.92% respectively [36]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: On January 27, the spot prices of copper, zinc, aluminum, and nickel increased year - on - year by 0.85%, 1.76%, 0.76%, and 2.34% respectively, while the spot price of aluminum decreased by 0.18% [36]. - **Ferrous Metals**: On January 27, the spot price of iron ore increased year - on - year by 1.13%, while the spot prices of rebar and wire decreased by 0.35% and 1.15% respectively [36]. - **Non - metals**: On January 27, the spot prices of glass and natural rubber increased year - on - year by 1.56% and 2.79% respectively, and the China Plastic City price index increased by 0.46% [36]. - **Energy**: On January 27, the spot prices of WTI crude oil, Brent crude oil, and liquefied natural gas increased year - on - year by 2.17%, 1.58%, and 3.63% respectively, while the coal price decreased by 0.12% [36]. - **Chemical**: On January 27, the spot prices of PTA and polyethylene increased year - on - year by about 5.87% and 2.18% respectively, while the spot prices of urea and soda ash decreased by 0.43% and 0.12% respectively [36]. - **Real Estate**: On January 27, the national cement price index and building materials composite index decreased year - on - year by 0.75% and 0.46% respectively, and the national concrete price index remained unchanged [36].