Report Industry Investment Ratings - L - Oscillatory [1] - PP - Oscillatory [1] - PVC - Weak [1] - PTA/PX - Cautiously Bullish [4] - Ethylene Glycol - Bullish [5] - Methanol - Cautiously Bullish [5] - Urea - Bullish [5] - Caustic Soda - Weak [1] Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes the investment prospects of multiple chemical products, taking into account factors such as geopolitical conflicts, supply - demand relationships, cost support, and policy impacts. Each product's market situation is unique, with some showing potential for upward movement while others are expected to remain stable or weak [1][4][5]. Summaries by Product L - **Market Performance**: L05 closed at 8,614 yuan/ton, down 2.2% from the previous day. The basis of L05 was -124 yuan/ton, and the L59 spread was 149 yuan/ton. Social inventory increased counter - seasonally [7][8]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply contraction intensified, geopolitical conflicts eased, and the market was in high - level consolidation. New plant overhauls in domestic petrochemicals increased the parking ratio, and the supply - demand pattern was gradually tightening, providing support at the bottom of the market [9]. PP - **Market Performance**: PP05 closed at 9,103 yuan/ton, down 1.8% from the previous day. The basis of PP05 was 75 yuan/ton, and the PP59 spread was 366 yuan/ton [10][11]. - **Basic Logic**: PDH cost support was strong, supply contraction continued, and the supply - demand pattern was improving. PDH profit still had room for upward repair. In the short term, it was mainly affected by geopolitical factors [12]. PVC - **Market Performance**: V05 closed at 5,353 yuan/ton, down 3.6% from the previous day. The basis of V05 was -133 yuan/ton, and the V59 spread was -106 yuan/ton [14][15]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply had a slow growth trend, and fundamental drivers were weak. There was a divergence in the start - up of ethylene and calcium carbide processes. High inventory and weak basis limited the upward space of the market [16]. PTA/PX - **Market Performance**: TA05 closed at 6,778 yuan/ton, up 186 yuan from the previous day. The PXN was 106.2 dollars/ton, down 123 dollars [17]. - **Basic Logic**: Geopolitical conflicts persisted, and the Strait of Hormuz was substantially blocked. TA valuation was high, and supply and demand were slightly loose. The market was expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term [18]. Ethylene Glycol (MEG) - **Market Performance**: EG05 closed at 5,279 yuan/ton, up 221 yuan from the previous day. The basis of EG05 was -129 yuan/ton, and the EG5 - 9 spread was 146 yuan/ton [19]. - **Basic Logic**: Geopolitical conflicts showed no obvious signs of easing. Domestic and overseas plants were continuously reducing their loads. Import volume was expected to decrease in March - April, and inventory pressure was expected to ease [20]. Methanol - **Market Performance**: The methanol market showed a back - structure, with a weakening basis and monthly spread. - **Basic Logic**: Valuation was high, and the fundamental outlook was improving. Supply was increasing domestically and decreasing overseas, and downstream demand was weakly stable. Port inventory was accelerating its decline, with stable cost support [23]. Urea - **Market Performance**: UR05 closed at 1,877 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan from the previous day. The basis of Shandong small - particle urea was 23 yuan/ton [24]. - **Basic Logic**: The price difference between domestic and overseas urea was large, but exports were restricted before the end of the domestic spring plowing peak. Supply was still at a high level, demand was recovering, and the market was expected to fluctuate within a range. The cost side provided support [25][26]. Caustic Soda - **Market Performance**: SH05 closed at 2,340 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan from the previous day. The basis of SH05 was -37 yuan/ton, and the SH59 spread was -177 yuan/ton [28][29]. - **Basic Logic**: The spot price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong continued to increase, and the basis was approaching parity. Caution was advised when short - selling. The start - up rate was expected to continue to increase, and attention should be paid to the progress of spring overhauls and export orders [29].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint - The plastic price is expected to show a strong - side fluctuating trend. Although the domestic supply - demand pattern of plastics has improved, the downstream shows resistance to high prices and the spot trading enthusiasm is not high. The situation in the Middle East is changeable, which affects the supply and price of plastics. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production progress of downstream enterprises after the festival and the development of the Middle East situation [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1行情分析 (Market Analysis) - On March 31, the plastic operating rate remained at around 80%, at a relatively low level. As of the week of March 27, the PE downstream operating rate increased by 2.16 percentage points to 39.75% week - on - week, but it has not returned to the pre - holiday normal level. After the Spring Festival, the petrochemical inventory has decreased and is currently at a neutral level in the same period in recent years [1]. - The conflict in the Middle East still exists, the possibility of a cease - fire agreement between the US and Iran is low, the risk of crude oil supply interruption has not been eliminated, and the crude oil price remains high. New production capacities of Basf (Guangdong) FDPE and Yulong Petrochemical LDPE/EVA were put into operation in January 2026, and there are no new production capacity plans in the first quarter. The plastic operating rate has been declining recently [1]. - After the Lantern Festival, the resumption of work in downstream factories increased, and the rigid demand was released intensively. During the spring plowing season, the prices of agricultural films in North, East, and South China continued to rise. The domestic supply - demand pattern of plastics has improved, but the downstream is resistant to high prices, and the spot trading enthusiasm is not high. The non - navigation of the Strait of Hormuz still brings the expectation of reduced plastic supply [1]. 3.2期现行情 (Futures and Spot Market Conditions) - **Futures**: The plastic 2605 contract decreased in position, fluctuated, and declined. The lowest price was 8,511 yuan/ton, the highest was 8,916 yuan/ton, and it finally closed at 8,614 yuan/ton, above the 60 - day moving average, with a decline of 4.48%. The position decreased by 24,962 lots to 299,225 lots [2]. - **Spot**: Most PE spot markets declined, with price changes ranging from - 300 to + 100 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 8,380 - 9,370 yuan/ton, LDPE at 10,100 - 11,510 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 8,400 - 9,840 yuan/ton [3]. 3.3基本面跟踪 (Fundamental Tracking) - **Supply**: On March 31, there were little changes in the shutdown devices, and the plastic operating rate remained at around 80%, at a relatively low level [4]. - **Demand**: As of the week of March 27, the PE downstream operating rate increased by 2.16 percentage points to 39.75% week - on - week. After the fifth week of the Spring Festival holiday, downstream enterprises resumed production one after another, but it has not returned to the pre - holiday normal level, showing seasonal changes in the overall PE downstream operating rate [4]. - **Inventory**: On Tuesday, the petrochemical early - morning inventory decreased by 10,000 tons to 850,000 tons week - on - week, 30,000 tons higher than the same period in the lunar calendar last year, and currently at a neutral level in the same period in recent years [4]. - **Raw Materials**: The Brent crude oil 05 contract fell to $107/barrel. The Northeast Asian ethylene price increased by $60/ton to $1,500/ton week - on - week, and the Southeast Asian ethylene price also increased by $60/ton to $1,500/ton week - on - week [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The nickel market is in a state of game between policy and fundamentals. The price of Shanghai nickel has support from the cost of nickel ore due to Indonesian policies but is suppressed by the macro - situation and supply - demand pattern, making it difficult to have a definite one - way market. It is expected to maintain a wide - range shock pattern in the short term [1][4]. - The stainless steel price is mainly affected by the nickel price. The supply growth expectation is stronger than the demand side, but there is still cost support. It is expected to follow the nickel price trend and maintain a shock in the short term [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - On March 26, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai nickel opened at 138,750 yuan/ton and closed at 135,860 yuan/ton, with a change of 0.41% compared with the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 412,306 (-48,075) lots, and the open interest was 179,895 (-8,929) lots [1]. - The nickel market is in a state of game between policy and fundamentals. Policy - wise, the nickel ore mining quota has decreased from 3.79 billion tons to 2.6 - 2.7 billion tons, leading to a tight supply at the ore end. Fundamentally, the supply output continues to rise, and the inventory at home and abroad is increasing, with sufficient market supply. The demand side has stable support as stainless steel mills' profits improve and production resumes after the festival, and new - energy vehicle production and sales meet expectations but are in the off - season with limited month - on - month improvement. Also, the Middle - East situation affects sulfur supply and raises the production cost of nickel [1]. News - Nickel Industries Limited's Indonesian Hengjaya Mine has suspended operations due to a personnel casualty accident. The Indonesian energy and mineral resources minister may relax the production targets of coal and nickel in 2026. The US Department of Defense is formulating a military plan against Iran. The news has mixed impacts on nickel, mainly suppressing it [2]. - In Indonesia, nickel ore supply is tightening, and the operation uncertainty on the Big K Island increases due to the mine accident and the approaching rainy season. In the Philippines, the nickel ore quotation is firm, with the 1.3% ore CIF quoted at $65/wet ton [2]. Spot - The nickel price is strongly running during the day, but the spot trading is average. The market has shifted to the 2605 contract. The premium of Jinchuan nickel has dropped significantly due to cost reduction, and other brands have also slightly declined. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 57,593 (-12) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 282,240 (-216) tons [3]. Strategy - In the short term, Shanghai nickel is expected to maintain an interval shock. The unilateral strategy is mainly interval operation, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [4]. Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis - On March 26, 2026, the main contract of stainless steel opened and closed at 14,390 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 183,602 (-38,355) lots, and the open interest was 120,397 (-4,171) lots [5]. - The stainless steel price is mainly affected by the nickel price. In terms of fundamentals, the total domestic stainless steel crude steel production in March is expected to reach 3.5364 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 36.5% and a year - on - year increase of 1.8%. The consumption in March is in a slow recovery process, and it is expected to continue to pick up in April, which provides bottom support for the price [5]. - Driven by the high - level operation of the futures market, the confidence in the spot market has recovered, and the inquiry and trading activity have increased. However, the downstream acceptance of high - priced goods is limited, and the spot price increase is relatively moderate. The stainless steel price in Wuxi market is 14,500 (+100) yuan/ton, and in Foshan market is 14,450 (+100) yuan/ton. The 304/2B premium is 130 - 330 yuan/ton [5]. Strategy - The short - term stainless steel is expected to follow the nickel price trend and maintain a shock. The unilateral strategy is neutral, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [5][6].

Group 1: Glass and Soda Ash Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The market sentiment is dull, and glass and soda ash are oscillating [1] Detailed Summary - **Glass**: The glass futures market had a narrow - range oscillation. In the spot market, prices were stable, with weak transactions driven by rigid demand. The supply - demand situation is characterized by a weak supply - demand pattern, with shrinking corporate profits, more cold - repair production lines, and a continuous decline in output. Downstream deep - processing orders are weak, and demand is sluggish. Although inventory has declined from its high level, prices are still under pressure due to disappointing real - estate data [1] - **Soda Ash**: Soda ash futures oscillated. In the spot market, transactions were mainly for rigid demand. Supply is increasing, and there is still supply pressure. Downstream demand is weak due to continuous reduction in float glass production and the lack of improvement in photovoltaic glass. Although corporate inventory has been transferred downstream, total inventory still faces high - level pressure. Affected by the Middle - East situation, cost is influenced by energy prices, and soda ash fluctuations have intensified. Future attention should be paid to cost support and the progress of new soda - ash production projects [1] - **Strategy**: Glass and soda ash are both expected to oscillate, with no strategies for inter - period or inter - variety trading [2] Group 2: Silicon Manganese and Silicon Iron Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The supply disturbance of manganese ore has weakened, and silicon manganese and silicon iron futures are oscillating at high levels [3] Detailed Summary - **Silicon Manganese**: The Middle - East situation has eased. The main contract of silicon manganese futures oscillated at a high level. The spot market was weak, with few alloy - factory quotes and strong wait - and - see sentiment. The price in the northern market was 6050 - 6150 yuan/ton, and in the southern market, it was 6150 - 6250 yuan/ton. Silicon manganese production has decreased, apparent demand has increased, and inventory has grown. With a still - loose production capacity and high - inventory pressure, there are significant supply - demand contradictions. Short - term manganese - ore supply is disturbed, and rising freight costs increase manganese - ore costs, leading to a price increase. However, after the Middle - East situation stabilizes, silicon manganese still faces downward pressure. Future attention should be paid to energy prices and manganese - ore shipments [3] - **Silicon Iron**: Silicon iron futures oscillated at a high level. The spot market was in consolidation, with average market activity. The price of 72 - grade silicon iron natural lumps in the main production areas was 5550 - 5650 yuan/ton, and 75 - grade silicon iron was 5950 - 6100 yuan/ton. Currently, the supply - demand contradiction of silicon iron is relatively limited. However, due to improved profits, production has increased significantly. With a loose production capacity, it adds resistance to inventory reduction during the peak season. The tense Middle - East situation has disturbed international energy prices, and concerns about rising electricity prices have led to a slightly stronger price oscillation. Future attention should be paid to energy prices, silicon - iron costs, inventory changes, and silicon - iron warehouse - receipt situations [3] - **Strategy**: Both silicon manganese and silicon iron are expected to oscillate [4]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [4] - Fuel oil: ★★★, suggesting a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [4] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: ★★★, showing a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [4] - Asphalt: ★★★, meaning a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [4] Core Views - The short-term oil price has a high risk of two-way fluctuations, and the long-term core variable determining the oil price trend is whether the Strait of Hormuz can remain open [1] - The geopolitical situation is the core of trading, and any progress in the peace talks will drive the market to form a wide-range shock pattern [2] - The asphalt fundamentals have marginal improvement expectations, and the BU price trend will follow the oil price, but the downside space is expected to be limited [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - The US government proposed a 15-item conflict-ending plan to Iran through Pakistan, but Iran doubts the US's sincerity due to previous attacks and troop deployments [1] - The capacity of alternative oil pipelines in the Middle East still has a huge gap compared with the normal shipping volume through the strait, and the release of strategic oil reserves by IEA member countries is only for emergency buffering [1] - The short-term oil price has a high risk of two-way fluctuations, and the long-term core variable determining the oil price trend is whether the Strait of Hormuz can remain open [1] Fuel Oil & Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil - The US proposed a peace talk plan to Iran, leading to a significant decline in fuel oil prices [2] - The logistics suppression of supply has not been lifted, and the supply gap in the Middle East cannot be fully hedged [2] - The approaching summer power generation peak may bring more fuel oil demand due to the LNG supply gap [2] - Low-sulfur fuel oil production has decreased due to supply reductions in Kuwait and other overseas refineries, as well as domestic raw material issues, and the high crack spread of refined oil supports the low-sulfur trend [2] - The geopolitical situation is the core of trading, and any progress in the peace talks will drive the market to form a wide-range shock pattern [2] Asphalt - Domestic refining enterprises are worried about future imported raw materials, and some refineries have started or plan to reduce device capacity utilization, leading to a corresponding contraction in asphalt supply [3] - The asphalt production plan for March has been revised down, and the production in April has further declined to an absolute low in recent years [3] - The sample refinery's shipment volume has decreased significantly year-on-year and month-on-month, and the cumulative year-on-year decline has further expanded [3] - The refinery inventory has decreased month-on-month, the social inventory has turned negative year-on-year, and the overall commercial inventory level is low [3] - The asphalt fundamentals have marginal improvement expectations, and the BU price trend will follow the oil price, but the downside space is expected to be limited [3]

1. Report Information - Report title: Soda Ash and Glass Daily Report [1] - Date: March 25, 2026 [2] - Research team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] 2. Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 3. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, the soda ash futures market may experience increased volatility, but in the medium - to - long - term, it faces downward price pressure due to a weak supply - demand situation. Although cost - side support from geopolitical factors exists, it is unstable [8]. - The glass market is in a dilemma. In the short - term, there is a possibility of a rebound in trading, but the upside is limited. In the medium - to - long - term, an improvement in the supply - demand structure and an upward price trend depend on the sustained change in commercial housing sales data [9][10]. 4. Summary by Directory 4.1 Soda Ash and Glass Market Review and Operation Suggestions Soda Ash Market - On March 24, the main soda ash futures contract SA605 rose first and then fell, closing at 1240 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton or 0.24%, with a daily reduction of 11,088 lots [8]. - The soda ash market is under pressure, with significant supply - side pressure due to new capacity and high operating rates, weak demand in real estate and photovoltaic sectors, and high inventory levels. Geopolitical factors support the cost side but are unstable [8]. Glass Market - The glass price is in a dilemma. High inventory and potential production capacity limit the upside, while cold - repair expectations and geopolitical - influenced upstream prices support the downside. However, the current cold - repair of individual production lines has little impact on the supply side, and inventory is still accumulating [9]. - In the short - term, coal and natural gas price hikes due to geopolitics have driven the glass price to stop falling and rebound. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of raw material price increases. The glass price's medium - to - long - term upward trend depends on commercial housing sales data [10]. 4.2 Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including the price trends of active soda ash and glass contracts, soda ash weekly output, soda ash enterprise inventory, the market price of heavy soda ash in Central China, and flat glass output, with data sources from Wind and iFind [12][14][20]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The nickel and stainless - steel markets are experiencing range - bound oscillations due to macro - level constraints. The nickel market is in a state of policy - fundamental game, with the price supported by Indonesian policy on the lower end and restricted by macro and supply - demand patterns on the upper end. The stainless - steel price is mainly influenced by the nickel price, and it is expected to maintain a volatile trend in the short term [1][3][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - On March 23, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai nickel opened at 133,100 yuan/ton and closed at 132,980 yuan/ton, a change of - 0.09% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 463,882 (-73,519) lots, and the open interest was 179,706 (6570) lots [1]. - The nickel market is in a state of policy - fundamental game. Policy - wise, the nickel ore mining quota has decreased from 3.79 billion tons to 2.6 - 2.7 billion tons, leading to a tight supply at the ore end and providing long - term support. Fundamentally, the supply output continues to rise, inventories at home and abroad are increasing, and the market supply is sufficient. The demand side has stable support as stainless - steel mills' profits improve and production resumes after the festival, and new - energy vehicle production and sales meet expectations, but it is in the off - season with limited month - on - month improvement. The Middle East situation affects sulfur supply and raises nickel production costs [1]. Nickel Ore and Spot - Multiple factors are driving up the raw material cost of nickel ore, and the bargaining focus is still rising. In the Philippines, the tense Middle East situation has driven up international oil prices, leading to a surge in nickel ore shipping costs. In Indonesia, due to Ramadan, the approval of RKAB quotas for nickel ore is slow, and the premium of domestic trade ore remains strong. The price of wet - process nickel ore on the island is 30 - 32 US dollars/wet ton, and it has risen to 35 - 37 US dollars/wet ton on the outer island. The premium of pyrometallurgical nickel ore has risen to 40 - 45 US dollars/wet ton, and mines still intend to raise the premium next month [2]. - The overall trading atmosphere of refined nickel spot is weak, with abundant spot resources in the market. Traders are eager to sell, and some holders maintain low - premium quotes to raise funds, but actual transactions are insufficient. The premium of Jinchuan nickel remains unchanged at 6,550 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel remains unchanged at - 150 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans is 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 57,632 (942) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 282,792 (-720) tons [2]. Strategy - The Shanghai nickel has shown strong resilience recently, maintaining a wide - range oscillation pattern in a macro - bearish environment, mainly due to the long - term support from the supply constraint at the Indonesian ore end. With obvious long - short differences, it is expected to remain range - bound in the short term. The strategy is mainly range - bound operations, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options [3]. Stainless - Steel Variety Market Analysis - On March 23, 2026, the main contract of stainless steel opened at 14,040 yuan/ton and closed at 14,035 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 175,123 (-82,319) lots, and the open interest was 118,436 (-4,171) lots [3]. - The stainless - steel price is mainly influenced by the nickel price. Fundamentally, the total domestic stainless - steel crude steel production in March is expected to reach 3.5364 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 36.5% and a year - on - year increase of 1.8%. The supply pressure is gradually emerging as the resumption of work and production accelerates after the festival. On the demand side, the stainless - steel demand in the "Golden March and Silver April" peak season fails to meet expectations, with only rigid demand replenishment from downstream and light transactions. The market consumption in March is in a slow recovery process, and the recovery speed is slower than in previous years. In April, consumption is expected to continue to pick up, orders will ease, and inventory is unlikely to rise, providing bottom support for the price [3][4]. - Steel mill agents have raised quotes, and with the strong performance of the futures market, the stainless - steel spot price has risen. Driven by the "buy on rising, not on falling" mentality, the inquiry and trading activity of downstream terminals has increased. The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi market is 14,300 (+0) yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market, it is 14,300 (+50) yuan/ton. The 304/2B premium is 190 to 390 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron yesterday remained unchanged at 1,084.0 yuan/nickel point [4]. Strategy - The supply growth expectation on the fundamental side is stronger than the demand side, but there is still cost support. Macro and policy factors are the main drivers of the stainless - steel trend. In the short term, stainless steel will follow the nickel price trend and is expected to maintain an oscillation. The strategy is neutral, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The main contract price of rebar oscillated higher with a daily increase of 0.90%, with increasing volume and decreasing positions. Supported by strong raw materials, the rebar price oscillated upward, but the fundamentals remained unchanged, and the upward space was limited. It is expected to continue the oscillatory trend, and attention should be paid to demand performance [5]. - The main contract price of hot-rolled coil oscillated strongly with a daily increase of 0.97%, with increasing volume and decreasing positions. Benefiting from strong demand and cost support from raw materials, the price rebounded from a low level. However, supply is increasing, and there are concerns about demand. The subsequent trend of high inventory should be viewed with caution, and attention should be paid to demand performance [5]. - The main contract price of iron ore oscillated upward with a daily increase of 0.92%, with increasing volume and decreasing positions. Driven by strong energy and marginal improvement in demand, the ore price remained high. However, the demand growth space was limited, and supply increased steadily. The fundamentals of iron ore were weakly stable, and the upward driving force of the high-valued ore price was not strong. It is expected to maintain a high-level oscillatory trend, and attention should be paid to steel performance [5]. Summary by Directory Industry Dynamics - From January to February 2026, China's export value of construction machinery was 75.081 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30.4%. In January 2026, the import and export trade volume of construction machinery was 5.762 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 17%. In February 2026, the total import and export was 5.31 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 51.6% [7]. - As of the end of February 2026, the inventory of the national passenger vehicle industry was 3.33 million vehicles, a decrease of 240,000 vehicles from the previous month and an increase of 250,000 vehicles compared with February 2025. The inventory of new energy vehicle manufacturers increased from 620,000 in September 2025 to 680,000 in February 2026, and the overall inventory pressure was relatively high [8]. - The US Bank EXIM plans to provide up to $10 billion in financing for the Mesabi Metallics iron ore project. The project is located in the core area of the Mesabi iron ore belt in the United States, with a resource volume of about 1.3 billion tons, mainly magnetite, and the iron grade of the raw ore is about 25% - 30% Fe. It is equipped with a beneficiation and pelletizing capacity of 7 million tons per year, and can produce direct reduction grade (DR-grade) pellets with an iron grade of over 67% [9]. Spot Market - The spot prices of rebar in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3,220 yuan, 3,210 yuan, and 3,346 yuan respectively; the spot prices of hot-rolled coil in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3,300 yuan, 3,230 yuan, and 3,327 yuan respectively; the price of Tangshan billet was 2,980 yuan, and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap was 2,190 yuan. The spread between hot-rolled coil and rebar was 80 yuan, and the spread between rebar and scrap was 1,030 yuan [10]. - The price of PB powder at Shandong ports was 793 yuan, the price of Tangshan iron concentrate was 772 yuan, the ocean freight from Australia was 11.77 US dollars, the ocean freight from Brazil was 30.53 US dollars, the SGX swap price (current month) was 106.74 US dollars, and the iron ore price index (61% FE, CFR) was 109.55 US dollars [10]. Futures Market - The closing price of the rebar futures active contract was 3,154 yuan, with a daily increase of 0.90%, the highest price was 3,165 yuan, the lowest price was 3,111 yuan, the trading volume was 1,011,355 lots, the volume difference was 287,216 lots, the open interest was 1,351,388 lots, and the position difference was -35,832 lots [12]. - The closing price of the hot-rolled coil futures active contract was 3,330 yuan, with a daily increase of 0.97%, the highest price was 3,335 yuan, the lowest price was 3,287 yuan, the trading volume was 472,394 lots, the volume difference was 195,880 lots, the open interest was 1,055,371 lots, and the position difference was -42,832 lots [12]. - The closing price of the iron ore futures active contract was 819.0 yuan, with a daily increase of 0.92%, the highest price was 826.0 yuan, the lowest price was 812.5 yuan, the trading volume was 263,330 lots, the volume difference was 16,045 lots, the open interest was 441,933 lots, and the position difference was -8,257 lots [12]. Related Charts - There are charts showing the inventory changes of rebar, hot-rolled coil, and iron ore, as well as the production situation of steel mills, including inventory volume, weekly changes, seasonal patterns, and the opening rate and profitability of steel mills [14][23][31] 后市研判 - Rebar: Supply and demand are both increasing. The weekly output of rebar increased by 80,300 tons, and the inventory is still higher than the same period last year. The demand is improving seasonally, but the high-frequency trading volume is weak, and the subsequent demand growth space is limited. Supported by strong raw materials, the price oscillates upward, but the upward space is limited, and it is expected to continue the oscillatory trend [40]. - Hot-rolled coil: Supply and demand are both rising. The output of hot-rolled coil increased by 49,500 tons week-on-week, and the inventory is still high. The demand is resilient, but there are concerns about demand, especially the export performance is average under the disturbance of the Middle East conflict. The price has rebounded from a low level, but the subsequent trend of high inventory should be viewed with caution [41]. - Iron ore: Supply and demand have changed. The terminal consumption of iron ore has rebounded, but the improvement space of demand may be limited. The supply of iron ore is increasing steadily. Driven by strong energy and marginal improvement in demand, the ore price remains high, but the upward driving force is not strong, and it is expected to maintain a high-level oscillatory trend [42].

Report Information - Report Title: Energy and Chemical Weekly Report [1] - Date: March 20, 2026 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document. Core Viewpoints - The Middle East situation continues to escalate, affecting the supply of energy products. Before the Strait of Hormuz is navigable, oil prices will remain strong but volatile. The polyolefin market is driven by strong cost support and a substantial contraction in supply, maintaining a relatively strong and upward - trending pattern. The pulp market is in a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, with low - level fluctuations. The soda ash market is under pressure, with high supply and weak demand. The glass market is in a dilemma, with high inventory and potential production capacity release suppressing the upside, while losses and cold - repair expectations provide some support [7][53][87][126][145] Summary by Directory Crude Oil - **Market Review and Operation Suggestions**: WTI, Brent, and SC crude oil futures have different price trends. The Middle East situation affects supply, and the IEA's joint release of reserves and the US's relaxation of sanctions on Venezuela can relieve some supply tensions. Before the Strait of Hormuz is navigable, oil prices are strong but volatile, and a bullish call spread can be considered [7][8] - **Fundamental Changes**: The Strait of Hormuz is blocked, and Middle Eastern countries are forced to cut production. The US takes measures to relieve supply tensions. High - frequency data shows changes in US crude oil and refined product inventories. The EIA has adjusted its supply - demand expectations and raised the average price forecast for Brent in the second quarter of 2026 [9][10][11] Polyester - **Market Review and Operation Suggestions**: Geopolitical conflicts lead to cost - push price increases. PX and PTA enterprises may cut production, and the polyester downstream has increased demand but poor sales. The supply of ethylene glycol is expected to decrease, and the market price is expected to be strong [28][29] - **Main Driving Forces**: The downstream consumption of polyester is weak, and the support for PTA and ethylene glycol is limited. PX prices may rise steadily, and PTA production is expected to increase. The ethylene glycol market is expected to be strong due to supply and cost factors [30][32][34] Polyolefins - **Market Review and Operation Suggestions**: The futures and spot prices of polyolefins have different trends. The market is affected by the Middle East situation, with strong cost support and supply contraction, but weak demand. It is expected to maintain a high - level sideways trend in the short term [42][53][54] - **Fundamental Changes**: The production of polypropylene and polyethylene has different changes, with some devices restarting and some under maintenance. The production profit of different raw materials varies. The inventory of polyolefins is high, and the downstream start - up level is different [55][56][67] Pulp - **Market Review and Outlook**: The pulp futures price has declined. The macro - environment and fundamentals affect the market, with a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, and low - level fluctuations [86][87] - **Fundamental Changes**: The pulp shipment volume of major producing countries, import volume, inventory, and downstream market conditions show different trends, with overall supply exceeding demand [88][93][103] Soda Ash - **Market Review and Operation Suggestions**: The soda ash futures price shows a downward trend. In the short term, the price may fluctuate greatly, and in the long term, it is under downward pressure. It is necessary to wait for capacity clearance [126][128] - **Soda Ash Market Situation**: The supply of soda ash is at a high level, with high production and inventory. The inventory has decreased slightly, but the pressure remains. The spot price fluctuates slightly, and the downstream demand is weak [130][135][142] Glass - **Market Review and Operation Suggestions**: The glass futures price continues to decline. The price is in a dilemma, with high inventory suppressing the upside and losses providing some support. It is necessary to pay attention to real - estate sales data [145][146] - **Glass Market Situation**: The glass supply is at a low level, with reduced production and capacity utilization. The inventory shows a contraction trend but remains high. The spot price is stable with a slight increase, affected by cost and supply factors. The import and export volume has different trends, and the upstream soda ash is in an oversupply situation. The downstream consumption is weak [148][151][155]

Report Information - Report Title: Soda Ash and Glass Daily Report [1] - Date: March 20, 2026 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The soda ash market is in a weak and pressured situation with significant supply - side pressure, weak demand, and high inventory. Although cost - side support from geopolitical factors exists, the market still faces downward pressure in the long - term. Short - term fluctuations may increase, and the market needs real capacity clearance on the supply side to break the deadlock [8]. - The glass market has a situation where prices are caught between high inventory and potential production capacity release on the upside, and cold - repair expectations on the downside. The core contradiction is the inventory accumulation. In the long - term, the improvement of the supply - demand structure and the opening of the upward price channel depend on the continuous change of commercial housing sales data. There is a short - term possibility of a rebound, but the upward space is limited [9][10]. Summary by Directory I. Soda Ash and Glass Market Review and Operation Suggestions Soda Ash - **March 19 Market Data**: The main soda ash futures SA605 continued to decline. The closing price was 1,217 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9 yuan/ton or 0.73%, with a daily reduction of 18,903 lots in positions [7]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply side has significant pressure due to new capacity release and high operating rates, resulting in a loose supply. The demand side is weak, especially in the real estate and photovoltaic sectors. The inventory is at a historically high level and the de - stocking process is blocked. Geopolitical factors support the cost side, partially offsetting the downward pressure [8]. - **Outlook**: Short - term fluctuations may increase. If it can effectively stand above the 1,200 - yuan mark, there may be upward space. In the long - term, due to the weak supply - demand pattern, there is downward price pressure. The market needs capacity clearance on the supply side [8]. Glass - **Fundamentals**: The glass price is in a situation where it is difficult to go up or down. High inventory and potential production capacity release suppress the price, while the cold - repair expectation of some production lines provides support. However, the current cold - repair of individual production lines has not had a substantial impact on the supply side, and inventory accumulation remains the core problem restricting the upward price movement [9][10]. - **Outlook**: Although the market is in the traditional off - season, the trading sentiment has improved. There is a short - term possibility of a rebound, but the upward space is limited. In the long - term, the opening of the upward price channel depends on the continuous change of commercial housing sales data [10]. II. Data Overview - The report provides multiple charts including the price trends of active soda ash and glass contracts, soda ash weekly production, soda ash enterprise inventory, central China heavy soda market price, and flat glass production, with data sources from Wind, iFind, and the research and development department of Jianxin Futures [12][17][19]