| | 锂云母 | 820 | 20 | 电碳-工碳价差 元/吨 | 一 电池级碳酸锂-平均价 TT / H4 | 一工业级碳酸锂-平均价 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | (Li20:1.5%-2.0%) | | | | | | | | 锂云母 (Li20:2.0%-2.5%) | 1385 | 30 | | 碳酸锂注册仓单(吨) | | | | 磷锂铝石 (Li20:6%-7%) | 4500 | 75 | | | | | | 磷锂铝石 (Li20:7%-8%) | 5340 | 80 | | | | | | 正极材料 | 平均价 | 涨跌 | | | | | | 磷酸铁锂(动力型) | 30950 | 100 | | | | | | 三元材料811(多晶/动力型) | 142780 | 20 | | | | | | 三元材料523 (単晶/动力型) | 114955 | 50 | | | | | | 三元材料613(单晶/动力型) | 120255 | 0 | | | | | | 名称 | 现值 | 変化值 | | | | | | 电碳- ...

今日（20250707）氧化铝板块期货市场小幅上涨为主。氧化铝 主力合约 2509，收于 3042 元/吨，较前一交易日收盘价上涨 18 元/ 吨,较结算价涨跌幅为 0.20%。成交量为 341853 手,持仓量为 252718 手。氧化铝 2509 合约成交量增加，持仓量减少。 图 1：氧化铝主力合约收盘价走势 图片来源：文华财经 成文日期: 20250707 研究品种:氧化铝 研究员：曹柏泉 期货咨询证号（F03122015&Z0019820) 报告周期: 日度 氧化铝期货日报 1. 市场概述与行情回顾 1.1 当日市场总体表现 | 表 1：氧化铝期货行情表 20250707 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约名称 | 收盘 价 | 涨跌 | 涨幅% | 成交量 | 振幅% | 持仓量 | 日増仓 | | 氧化铝 2509 | 3042 | 18 | 0.20 | 34185 3 | 3.26 | 25271 8 | -14833 | | 氧化铝 2510 | 3012 | 15 | 0.10 | 3 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2025 年 7 月 9 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 2510 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA60 一线支撑 | 供需格局弱稳，钢价延续震荡 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 螺纹钢供需格局延续弱稳运行，建筑钢厂持续提产，螺纹产量延续回升，供应压力不断增加。 与此同时，螺纹需求延续季节性弱势，周度表现环比微增，而高频成交依旧低迷，且两者均是同期 低位，而下游行业未见好转，弱势需求格局未变。目前来看，螺纹供应回升，而需求延续弱势，基 本面表现偏弱，淡 ...

宝城期货铁矿石早报（2025 年 7 月 7 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2509 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 关注 MA5 一线支撑 | 乐观情绪发酵，矿价偏强震荡 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 铁矿石供需两端有所变化，淡季钢厂临检增多，矿石终端消耗高位回落，整体仍是年内相对高位， 给予矿价支撑。同时，财年末冲量结束，矿商发运迎来回落，而港口到货也环比减量，海外矿石供应 迎来收缩，相应的内矿生产趋稳，矿石供应短期收缩，关注后续降幅情况。目前来看，政策利好预期 再现 ...

2021年之后，随着国内房地产行业拐点的出现，PVC终端需求开始萎缩，受此影响，PVC价格持续回 落。截至2025年7月6日，PVC价格相较2021年10月的高点已下跌60%，且暂无明显止跌迹象。 综上所述，目前PVC行业亏损幅度较大，若成本重心不向下移动，价格向下空间有限。供应方面，氯碱 装置盈利状况不佳，加之夏季来临后氯碱装置进入检修季，PVC开工负荷有望下降。需求方面，房地产 行业未见起色，下游管材、型材企业进入消费淡季，尽管PVC出口有所上升，但仍难以改变需求疲软的 状态。在这种情况下，PVC市场呈现供需两弱格局，叠加高亏损压力，短期内期价将延续弱势震荡格 局。（作者单位：中原期货） （文章来源：期货日报） 下游备货意愿不高 截至2025年5月，国内房地产开发投资、房屋销售面积、新房开工、房屋竣工面积等数据仍同比下滑， 房地产行业低迷态势未明显好转，PVC整体需求也难有起色。当前，PVC下游已进入消费淡季，企业订 单不足，管材、型材等开工负荷均有所下降。截至6月26日当周，国内PVC管材样本企业开工率预估为 38.56%，环比下降1.57个百分点，同比下降10.82个百分点。消费淡季叠加PVC价格走弱 ...

截至本周四，全国冶金级氧化铝建成总产能11082万吨/年，运行总产能8863万吨/年，全国氧化铝周度 开工率较上周下降0.31个百分点至79.97%。 机构观点汇总： 截至2025年7月4日当周，氧化铝期货主力合约收于3024元/吨，周K线收阴，持仓量环比上周减持21409 手。 本周（6月30日-7月4日）市场上看，氧化铝期货周内开盘报2980元/吨，最高触及3083元/吨，最低下探 至2911元/吨，周度涨跌幅达1.54%。 消息面回顾： 据了解，2025年7月2日海外市场氧化铝以西澳FOB361.60美元/吨的价格成交3万吨，8月船期。（上一笔 成交为：6月13日海外市场氧化铝以澳洲FOB366美元/吨的价格成交3万吨，8月船期） 据7月3日统计，国内港口氧化铝库存共计4.3万吨，较前一周增加1.74万吨。 兴业期货：宏观方面，财新PMI数据表现一般，中美贸易关系预期缓和有所加强，美国非农数据偏强， 美联储观望期预期延长，美元指数小幅反弹至97附近。氧化铝方面，矿石扰动担忧仍未消退，但国内铝 土矿库存仍偏高，短期供给紧张担忧有限。氧化铝产能扩张速度仍较快，且下游需求难有增量，过剩格 局难以转变。沪铝方面 ...

2025 年 7 月 6 日 行业研究 25H1 原油市场波动剧烈，关注地缘政治和 OPEC+增产进展 ——石油化工行业周报第 410 期（20250630—20250706） 要点 供需宽松叠加地缘政治扰动， 25H1 油价震荡下行。2025H1，需求预期下行 叠加 OPEC+持续加速增产，油价整体震荡下行，但地缘政治事件使油价波动 较为剧烈。2025 年 1 月，美国对俄罗斯石油行业实施大规模制裁，推动油价 上涨，2-3 月俄乌和谈预期使油价下行，4 月以来，贸易冲突加剧叠加 OPEC+ 持续推动增产计划，油价中枢不断下行，6 月伊以短期冲突使油价快速上涨后 回落。截至 2025 年 6 月 30 日，布伦特、WTI 原油分别报收 66.63、64.97 美 元/桶，较年初分别-11.0%、-9.6%。 俄乌冲突长期化叠加伊以停火存隐忧，地缘政治风险仍将扰动油价。俄乌冲 突方面，由于 25Q2 以来和谈实际进展缓慢，且俄乌两次直接会谈均未取得成 果，目前俄乌冲突长期化成为市场共同预期。中东地缘冲突方面，本次伊以冲 突源于伊核谈判失败，而停火后伊核问题的后续谈判方案尚不明确，伊朗计划 继续其核计划，伊以停火 ...

先说个有意思的现象：业内人都在说，最近好多交易商正扎堆把铜往美国运。为啥？明眼人都看出来了，这是抢在特朗普可能上调关税的最后期限前囤 货呢。想想看，要是关税真涨上去，进口铜的成本可就高了，现在赶紧往美国仓库里搬，相当于提前锁死低价筹码，这波操作跟买菜囤打折菜一个道 理，就是规模差了十万八千里。 但囤货只是表面，咱得往深了看。首先美国那边需求确实有点猛，基建项目重启后，电线电缆、建筑用铜的订单蹭蹭涨，洛杉矶长滩港最近卸的铜板材 集装箱数量比去年同期多了快两成。加上LME铜库存最近又往下掉，交易所仓单量都快跌破50万吨了，供需这根弦一绷紧，价格自然容易往上窜。 各位朋友好，我是帮主郑重。最近有色金属圈可热闹了，黄金白银刚飙完，咱们的"铜博士"也坐不住了——国际铜价这周直接冲破三个月新高，伦敦铜价 眼瞅着又往年内高点窜。这铜价突然起飞，背后可有不少门道，今天咱就掰开了聊。 还有个点容易被忽略：现在全球铜矿开采其实有点"卡脖子"。南美的智利秘鲁前阵子闹工人罢工，刚果（金）的铜钴矿运输又受地缘影响，矿企产能跟不 上，冶炼厂只能靠吃库存过日子。这时候美国突然来一波集中囤货，就像往原本就烧着的炉子上又添了把柴，铜价不涨才怪 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views - In H1 2025, the LPG futures market was in a range - bound state with weak endogenous drivers, but price volatility increased significantly due to macro and geopolitical events [5][26]. - Without major geopolitical and macro disturbances, the LPG supply - demand pattern is expected to remain loose in H2 2025. Supply from the Middle East and the US will further increase. Although China's chemical demand base will expand with new device launches, weak downstream product demand and low device profits restrict raw material demand release and cap the upside of LPG prices [1][5][102]. - Based on the expectation of a medium - term decline in crude oil prices and a global LPG oversupply, there is a certain downward driver for LPG prices in H2 2025. Considering the current price level, the short - term downside space may be limited, and opportunities to short on rallies can be monitored [5][102]. Summary by Directory Crude Oil Reality Fundamentals Are Fair but Expectations Are Weak, and the Cost Center May Further Decline in Q4 - In H1 2025, international oil prices fluctuated repeatedly due to increased geopolitical and macro disturbances. Brent once exceeded $80/barrel at the beginning of the year but then fell back. Trump's policies had a more prominent negative impact on the oil market [12]. - In April, Trump's tariff policy and OPEC's production increase decision led to an accelerated oil price decline, with Brent falling below $60/barrel. After the tariff conflict improved marginally, oil prices rebounded [13]. - In June, the Israel - Iran conflict increased the geopolitical premium of crude oil, and Brent approached $80/barrel. After the cease - fire, oil prices quickly fell back [14]. - Currently, the crude oil market has returned to its fundamental logic. The short - term fundamentals are fair, but there may be oversupply in Q4, and the cost support for downstream energy - chemical products may weaken [15]. H1 2025 LPG Market Operated Weakly Overall, and Tariffs and Geopolitical Conflicts Caused Disturbances - In Q1 2025, the LPG market was in a shock state with no prominent contradictions. Minor disturbances had limited impact, and the spot market was not tight due to weak downstream demand in the Asia - Pacific [26]. - In Q2 2025, the impact of macro and geopolitical factors increased significantly. The US - imposed tariffs led to a change in the LPG trade pattern, an increase in PDH device losses, and complex price transmission. After the tariff reduction, the market remained cautious. In June, the Israel - Iran conflict briefly boosted the LPG market, but after the cease - fire, it returned to a loose supply - demand pattern [27][28]. H2 2025 LPG Supply - Demand Pattern May Remain Loose, and US Export Space Will Further Expand OPEC Eases Production Cuts, and Middle East LPG Supply Has Growth Potential - OPEC's production policy has shifted, with production quotas increasing. Although actual production increases may be lower than quotas, LPG supply is expected to rise. Middle East LPG shipments have gradually increased, and CP prices have declined [42][44]. - Iran's LPG shipments have remained stable this year, and after the temporary delay in June due to the Israel - Iran conflict, they are expected to resume in July [44]. US LPG Supply Keeps Growing, and Export Space Will Further Expand after Terminal Expansion - US NGL and LPG production have been rising. With limited domestic consumption growth, the US needs to export more. After the tariff adjustment, the US - China LPG trade window has reopened but not fully recovered [55]. - The expansion of US export terminals will increase export capacity by about 950,000 tons/month in July, further opening up export space. The future of US - China trade depends on tariff negotiations [60]. Russian Gas Supply Shows an Obvious Growth Trend and Has Become a New LPG Raw Material Source for China - China's imports of Russian LPG have been increasing. From January to May this year, imports reached 316,000 tons, a 95% year - on - year increase. Russian LPG has a price advantage and stable supply, which has suppressed the spot price in North China [79]. China's PDH New Capacity Launch Cycle Continues, but Profits Remain a Constraint on Demand Release - China's LPG demand has been growing, mainly driven by the launch of downstream chemical devices. About 5.31 million tons/year of propane dehydrogenation capacity is planned to be launched this year, but PDH industry profits have been low, restricting demand release and new device launch progress [83]. - The US tariff policy still poses risks to China's LPG raw material procurement. If tariffs rise again, PDH device profits will be under pressure, and industry demand may decline [85]. LPG Supply - Demand Pattern May Remain Loose, and Market Upside Resistance Remains Significant - Without major disturbances, the LPG supply - demand pattern is expected to remain loose in H2 2025. Supply from the Middle East and the US will increase, while weak downstream demand and low device profits will limit price increases [102].

硅铁&锰硅产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 黑色金属 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号： Z0021184 金园园 （联系人）从业资格号：F03134630 日期： 2025年7月6日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint | 基本面 | 条 目 | | | | 硅 铁 | | | | 锰 | 硅 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 当期值 | | 环 | 比 | | 同 比 | 当期值 | 环 | 比 | 同 | 比 | | 供 应 | 周产量（周） | 10 . | 02 | 2 . | 77% | . | -12 34% . | 18 01 . | 0 . | 49% | -19 | 33% | | | 进口数量（5月） | 1 36 . | | -3 . | 05% | . | 361 37% . | 0 04 . | -0 . | 56% | -88 | 30% | | ...