投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⿊⾊建材策略⽇报 2025-11-26 反弹动能减弱，关注宏观扰动 钢材基本⾯继续改善，同时12⽉中央经济⼯作会议即将召开，海外 仍有降息预期，中美元⾸通话释放信号偏积极，宏观环境偏暖，但淡 季逐步深⼊，基本⾯亮点有限，盘⾯反弹动能减弱。短期铁⽔预计仍 有⽀撑，铁矿补库需求仍有释放预期，铁矿价格表现偏强。焦煤低产 量和低库存状况有望保持⾄年底，进⼝虽持⾼位，但焦煤基本⾯暂未 出现明显弱化，近⽉合约仍受到交割影响，远⽉合约价格⽀撑作⽤仍 较强。玻璃供应仍有扰动预期，但⾼库存始终压制价格。纯碱⾏业价 格临近成本，底部⽀撑较为明显，但供需格局过剩始终压制价格上 ⾏。 钢材基本面继续改善，同时12月中央经济工作会议即将召开，海外仍 有降息预期，中美元首通话释放信号偏积极，宏观环境偏暖，但淡季 逐步深入，基本面亮点有限，盘面反弹动能减弱。短期铁水预计仍有 支撑，铁矿补库需求仍有释放预期，铁矿价格表现偏强。焦煤低产量 和低库存状况有望保持至年底，进口虽持高位，但焦煤基本面暂未出 现明显弱化，近月合约仍受到交割影响，远月合约价格支撑作用仍较 强。玻璃供应仍有扰动 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - The current macro - level is in a relative vacuum period. The A - share market lacks a clear upward main line, and trading volume remains low. Short - term market differences are expected to be gradually digested during the index's shock adjustment, waiting for a new driving main line to push the index higher [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, suppressing the upward space [1]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Equity Index - The A - share market lacks a clear upward main line, with low trading volume. Short - term market differences will be digested in the index's shock adjustment, and a new driving main line is awaited for further upward movement [1]. Bonds - Asset shortage and weak economy are good for bond futures, but short - term central bank's interest - rate risk warning restricts the rise [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: Market sentiment is volatile recently, and copper prices may fluctuate [1]. - Aluminum: With limited industrial drivers and volatile macro sentiment, aluminum prices are oscillating at a high level [1]. - Alumina: Domestic alumina production capacity continues to be released. Production and inventory are both increasing, and the fundamentals are weak. Prices are oscillating around the cost line [1]. - Zinc: The Fed has large internal differences, and the macro sentiment is expected to be volatile. Although there are short - term improvement signs in the domestic fundamentals, the oversupply pattern remains. Zinc prices are expected to fluctuate [1]. - Nickel: The Fed has large internal differences, and the macro sentiment has improved in the short term after the China - US presidential call. Indonesia restricts nickel - related smelting project approvals. With a planned monthly production cut of about 6,000 metric tons in Indonesian intermediate products, nickel prices have a repair expectation if the macro sentiment improves. It is recommended to focus on short - term operations, consider a light - position long - nickel and short - stainless - steel strategy. In the long - term, the primary nickel market remains oversupplied [1]. - Stainless Steel: The Fed has large internal differences, and the macro sentiment has improved in the short term. The price of raw material nickel - iron has weakened again, and the social inventory of stainless steel has increased. Steel mills' production cuts in November are limited. Stainless - steel futures are looking for a bottom in oscillation. It is recommended to focus on short - term operations, consider a light - position long - nickel and short - stainless - steel strategy, and pay attention to short - selling hedging opportunities at high prices [1]. - Tin: The Fed's differences are increasing, and the macro situation is volatile. Indonesia's tin exports have declined significantly. Considering the un - repaired tin - ore supply and terminal demand expectations, tin is still regarded as bullish in the long term [1]. Precious Metals and New Energy - Precious Metals: There are still differences regarding a December interest - rate cut. Precious - metal prices may fluctuate, and attention should be paid to US economic data [1]. - Industrial Silicon: Northwest production capacity is continuously resuming, and the start - up in the southwest is weaker than in previous years. The impact of the dry season is weakening. Polysilicon production in November has decreased, and there is a joint production cut in the organic - silicon industry [1]. - Polysilicon: There is an expectation of production - capacity reduction in the long term. Terminal installations will increase marginally in the fourth quarter. The anti - involution policy has not been implemented for a long time, and market sentiment has faded [1]. - Carbonate Lithium: The traditional peak season for new energy vehicles is approaching, energy - storage demand is strong, and the supply side is resuming production. However, there are concerns about potential weakening of industrial demand in the off - season [1]. Steel and Iron - Rebar: In the off - season, there are concerns about potential weakening of industrial demand. During the short - term macro vacuum period, although the valuation is low, the price increase space is limited. The virtual value accumulation strategy can be appropriately participated in [1]. - Hot - Rolled Coil: The off - season effect is not obvious, but the industrial structure is still loose. During the short - term macro vacuum period, the basis is acceptable. The spot - futures positive arbitrage can be appropriately participated in, or option strategies can be used to optimize costs or sales profits [1]. - Iron Ore: The near - month contracts are restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is good, and the far - month contracts still have upward opportunities [1]. - Ferroalloy: Short - term production profits are poor, cost support is strengthening, direct demand is acceptable, but supply is high, and the downstream is under pressure. The price rebound is limited [1]. Chemicals - Soda Ash: It follows the glass market, but supply and demand are average, and there is significant upward resistance [1]. - Coke and Coking Coal: From a valuation perspective, the current decline of coke and coking coal is close to the end. From a driving perspective, downstream replenishment is expected to start around mid - December. For now, a short - term trading strategy is recommended for single - side trading, and a wait - and - see attitude is advisable for the long - term [1]. Agricultural Products - Soybean Oil: The rumor that "the US delays the implementation of preferential cuts for imported bio - fuel raw materials" has been refuted, which has a positive impact on US soybeans and soybean oil. Domestic soybean - oil basis may be stable or weak under high - pressure crushing. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - Rapeseed Oil: The industry is optimistic about the supply of Australian rapeseed and imported crude rapeseed oil. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - Cotton: There is a strong expectation of a domestic new - crop harvest, and the purchase price of seed cotton supports the cost of lint. Downstream start - up remains low, but spinning mills' inventory is not high, with rigid replenishment demand. The cotton market is currently in a situation of "having support but no driver" [1]. - Sugar: The global sugar supply has shifted from shortage to surplus, and raw - sugar prices are under pressure. The supply pressure of the domestic new crop has increased year - on - year, and Zhengzhou sugar is expected to follow the decline of raw sugar [1]. - Corn: Short - term supply is tight due to farmers' reluctance to sell, logistics tensions in the Northeast, and low downstream inventory. The spot price is firm, and the futures price has rebounded. It is recommended to be cautious about going long before the supply pressure is fully released [1]. - Bean Meal: Short - term attention should be paid to China's purchase of US soybeans, which may support the US soybean market. Without obvious weather problems, the market is expected to shift to trading the abundant supply of South American new crops from December to January. It is recommended to short MO5 on rallies [1]. Pulp and Logs - Pulp: The pulp - futures price has risen above the registration - warehouse - receipt cost of most coniferous - pulp delivery products. After new warehouse - receipt registration, a 1 - 3 reverse arbitrage can be considered [1]. - Logs: The fundamentals of logs have weakened, but this has been priced into the market. After a sharp decline in the futures price, the risk - return ratio of short - selling is low. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. Livestock - Pig: The current spot price is gradually stabilizing. Supported by demand and with the weight of pigs for slaughter not fully reduced, the production capacity still needs to be further released [1]. Energy - Crude Oil: OPEC + plans to continue a small - scale production increase in December, the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement is being promoted, and the US has increased a new round of sanctions against Russia [1]. - Fuel Oil: Short - term supply - demand contradictions are not prominent, and it follows the crude - oil market [1]. - Asphalt: The "14th Five - Year Plan" rush - work demand is likely to be falsified, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is sufficient. The asphalt profit is high [1]. - Natural Rubber (HK): The raw - material cost has strong support, the spot - futures price difference is at a low level, and the number of RU盘 - face warehouse receipts is low after the cancellation of old - rubber warehouse receipts [1]. - BR Rubber: The cost support of butadiene is insufficient, the supply of synthetic rubber is abundant, high - start - up and high - inventory have not yet suppressed the price. There are signs of price stabilization, and the subsequent rebound amplitude should be noted [1]. Petrochemicals - PTA: Gasoline profit and low benzene price support PX. Overseas and some domestic device malfunctions have led to a decline in the load of aromatics - production devices. Domestic large - scale PTA devices are under rotational inspection, and domestic PTA production has decreased [1]. - Ethylene Glycol: The decline in crude - oil prices has led to a fall in ethylene - glycol prices. The increase in coal prices has slightly strengthened the cost support of domestic ethylene glycol. The strong expectation of domestic device commissioning suppresses the increase in ethylene - glycol prices [1]. - Short - Fiber: Gasoline profit and low benzene price support PX. The PTA price has rebounded, and the short - fiber basis has strengthened. Short - fiber prices continue to closely follow the cost [1]. - Styrene: The Asian benzene price is still weak, and the operating rates of STDP and reforming units have decreased. The price of pure benzene in the US Gulf has increased by 30 US dollars, and some US devices have reduced their loads. The benzene - blending logic in the US has promoted the price increase of pure benzene [1]. Plastics - PE: Export sentiment has eased, but domestic demand is insufficient. There is support from anti - involution and the cost side [1]. - PP: The supply pressure is large due to high operating rates and relatively low downstream improvement and expectations. The high price of propylene monomers provides strong cost support [1]. - PVC: The futures price is returning to fundamentals. With fewer subsequent overhauls and new - capacity release, supply pressure is increasing, while demand is weakening and orders are poor [1]. Others - Caustic Soda: Some alumina plants' delivery schedules have slowed down. There are fewer subsequent overhauls, and there is inventory - accumulation pressure in Shandong. The price of liquid chlorine is high, and the absolute price is low. There is a risk of short - squeeze in near - month contracts due to limited warehouse receipts [1]. - LPG: The international oil and gas fundamentals are continuously loose, and CP/FEI prices are weakening. The PG price has repaired its valuation, combustion demand is gradually restarting, and the domestic spot fundamentals are stable with chemical - industry rigid demand support [1]. - Shipping: The macro - positive sentiment has been gradually digested, the peak - season price - increase expectation has been priced in advance, and the shipping - capacity supply in November is relatively loose [1].

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-11-25 市场分析 2025-11-24，工业硅期货价格震荡运行，主力合约2601开于8940元/吨，最后收于8940元/吨，较前一日结算变化（-90） 元/吨，变化（-1.00）%。截止收盘，2511主力合约持仓262676手，2025-11-24仓单总数为41524手，较前一日变化 -854手。 供应端：工业硅现货价格持稳。据SMM数据，昨日华东通氧553#硅在9400-9600（-50）元/吨；421#硅在9600-9900 （-50）元/吨，新疆通氧553价格8800-9000（-100）元/吨，99硅价格在8800-9000（-100）元/吨。昆明、黄埔港、 西北、天津、新疆、四川、上海地区硅价小幅回落，97硅价格回落。 根据SMM报道，海关数据显示，出口方面：2025年10月工业硅出口量在4.51万吨，环比大幅减少36%同比减少31%。 2025年1-10月份工业硅累计出口量在60.67万吨，同比减少1%。进口方面：2025年1-10月累计进口量在0.86万吨， 同比减少67%。10月份工业硅出口环比大幅减少，主要受到出口政策端影响，部分出口订单抢在9月份发货 ...

对二甲苯：短期不追高 PTA：单边震荡市，不追高 MEG：供需格局改善，空单减持 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 hexiaoqin@gtht.com | 所 | PX PTA MEG 基本面数据 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货 | PX 主力 | PTA 主力 | MEG 主力 | PF 主力 | SC 主力 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 6772 | 4680 | 3884 | 6242 | 447.9 | | | 涨跌 | 22 | 14 | 76 | 80 | 0.5 | | | 涨跌幅 | 0.33% | 0.30% | 2.00% | 1.30% | 0.11% | | | 月差 | PX1-5 | PTA1-5 | MEG1-5 | PF12-1 | SC11-12 | | | 昨日收盘价 | -18 | -44 | -78 | -68 | -1.9 | | | 前日收盘价 | -20 | -44 | -93 | -50 | 2.8 | | | 涨跌 | 2 | 0 | 15 | -18 | ...

甲醇产业期现日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年11月25日 张晓珍 Z0003135 甲醇价格及价差 在中的信息均来源于被广发期货有限公司认为可靠的已公开资料、但广发期货对这些信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告反映研究。 见解及分析方法，并不代表广发期货或其附属机构的立场。在任何情况下、报告内容仅供参考。报告中的信息或所未达的意见并不拘成所 出价或角价，投资者报此投资、风险自担。本报告旨在发送给广发现货转定客户及其他专业人士、版权归厂发期货所有，未经厂发期货 告进行任何形式的发布、复制。 知识图强,求实奉献,客户至上,合作共赢 下游-MTBE开工率 70.4 71.1 -0.71 | 品相 | 11月24日 | 11月21日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | MA2601 收盘价 | 2077 | 2004 | 73 | 3.64% | | | MA2605 收盘价 | 2198 | 2138 | 60 | 2.81% | | | MA15价差 | -121 | -134 | 13 | -9 ...

1. 铁元素方面：海外矿山发运环比明显减量，澳巴发运减少，非主 流发运有所增加，前两周到港减量后本期环比明显增加，压港情况有 所加重，船舶卸货排队时间延长，港口库存环比小幅下降，采购远期 现货的钢厂进口矿库存去化。钢联铁水小幅下降，大规模检修尚未出 现，短期铁水预计仍有支撑，铁矿补库需求仍有释放预期，铁矿价格 表现偏强。废钢供增需稳，基本面矛盾不突出，价格下降后性价比回 升，下方空间有限，预计废钢价格震荡。 2. 碳元素方面：利润修复叠加环保放松后焦炭供应企稳，短期钢厂 刚需支撑不减，总库存保持去化，但现货成本支撑持续转弱，市场提 降预期渐起，盘面预计跟随焦煤震荡运行。国内供应保持低位，焦煤 基本面暂未出现明显弱化，现货回调后下游冬储仍有补库预期，基本 面支撑仍在，盘面近月合约仍受到交割影响，预计价格保持震荡，远 月合约当前价格估值偏低，基本面对价格支撑较强，预计震荡偏强运 行。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⿊⾊建材策略⽇报 2025-11-25 供给扰动叠加宏观情绪偏暖，板块低位 反弹 钢材基本⾯继续改善，同时12⽉中央经济⼯作会议即将召开，叠加 海外仍有降息预期，宏观环境 ...

（来源：福能期货） 01 重点关注 碳酸锂 近期碳酸锂价格回调主要受三大因素影响：一是广期所实施限仓令；二是SMM周度库存去库量从前值 3406吨收窄至2052吨，去库动能不及预期；三是宁德枧下窝矿山提前复产传闻发酵。短期锂价或受情绪 降温延续弱势运行，但当前供需格局已较上半年显著改善，支撑价格底部区间上移至8万上方，关注后 续宁德枧下窝矿山复产进度。 原油 隔夜，WTI 01月合约收于58.84美元/桶，上涨1.34%，布伦特 01月合约收于63.37美元/桶，上涨1.29%。 美、乌表示会谈有所进展，但未表明计划的具体修改，且仍有分歧存在，欧盟团体提出修改后的和平计 划遭俄拒绝，市场等待进一步结果。地缘扰动下国际油价上涨。预计INE原油跟随修复。加勒比海附近 仍有多个美军战斗群，后续关注俄乌和平计划进展和委内瑞拉地缘局势变化。 双焦 甘其毛都口岸自24日凌晨开始持续降雪，受恶劣天气影响24日下午14时左右国内方向外调停止。国内主 产区煤矿开工率小幅回升，国内炼焦煤供应缓慢恢复。市场情绪谨慎偏弱，成交活跃度降低，部分矿端 报价继续小幅下调。短期内煤焦需求仍有支撑，不过随着钢厂陆续减产检修，对原料价格的支撑力 ...

| 橡胶产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年11月24日 | | | | 蔵帝斯 | Z0021810 | | 现货价格及基差 | | | | | | | 品中 | 11月21日 | 11月20日 | 演员 | 派跌喝 | 电应 | | △南国营全乳胶(SCRWF):上海 | 14750 | 14850 | -100 | -0.67% | | | 全乳基差 | -490 | -400 | -90 | -22.50% | 70/04 | | 泰标混合胶报价 | 14600 | 14650 | -50 | -0.34% | | | 非标价差 | -640 | -600 | -40 | -6.67% | | | 杯胶:国际市场:FOB中间价 | 52.91 | 53.48 | -0.57 | -1.07% | | | 胶水:国际市场:FOB中间价 | 57.00 | 56.70 | 0.30 | 0.53% | 泰铢/公斤 | | 天然橡胶:胶块:西双版纳州 | 13100 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Precious Metals**: In the medium - to long - term, central bank gold purchases and growing investment demand will push up the price of precious metals. In the short - term, due to the unclear prospect of a December interest rate cut, the prices will likely continue to fluctuate and adjust, with a possible narrowing of the fluctuation range [3]. - **Copper**: The intraday procurement and sales sentiment has increased, and the spot price has risen while the premium has weakened. The copper price faces pressure at 86,500 - 86,600. Given the weak impact of the unemployment data on the December interest rate cut expectation and the dollar index remaining above 100, the copper price will likely fluctuate around 86,000 [17]. - **Aluminum**: Shanghai aluminum will maintain a moderately strong long - term trend. In the short - term, weak fundamentals and a lower probability of a December interest rate cut have led to profit - taking by previous funds. It will likely consolidate with an overall higher price center. Alumina has seen price - increasing orders due to environmental restrictions and short - covering, but it is still in an oversupply situation. Cast aluminum alloy has strong follow - up characteristics to Shanghai aluminum and strong downside support [37][38]. - **Zinc**: The expectation of an interest rate cut has cooled. In terms of fundamentals, the smelting end is competing for ore, resulting in a significant decline in November TC. The smelting end's willingness to reduce or halt production has increased in November. If demand remains stable, there is a possibility of inventory reduction. Currently, there are large differences between bulls and bears, and the bottom space can be observed at the end of the month [59]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The price of ferronickel has continued to decline, breaking below 900 and still falling due to weak downstream demand. Under the situation of a significant collapse in costs, the downside space for nickel and stainless steel is greater than the upside space. Stainless steel spot has high shipment pressure, and downstream purchasing willingness is low. Attention should be paid to the demand trend and Indonesian policy support expectations [75]. - **Tin**: Fundamentally, there is some resumption of production in Yunnan, but due to the lower - than - expected resumption of production in Wa State, the import of concentrate has sharply decreased, and supply is weaker than demand. In the short - term, it is difficult to solve the raw material problem on the supply side, and Shanghai tin will maintain a high - level shock, with support expected around 276,000 yuan [88]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: This week, lithium carbonate production and inventory showed the characteristic of "increasing production and reducing inventory", but the inventory reduction process has significantly slowed down. High prices have weakened downstream enterprises' willingness to replenish inventory, suppressing price increases. Technically, the futures price faces a key pressure level of 100,000 yuan, with limited short - term upward momentum and significant callback risks [104]. - **Silicon Industry Chain**: For industrial silicon, considering supply - demand and technical factors, the price has strong downside support and limited downward space. For polysilicon, policy - driven short - term stimulation coexists with a weak fundamental situation, and the price increase is limited due to insufficient demand support [115]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals - **Price Outlook**: Medium - to long - term upward trend; short - term fluctuation and adjustment with possible range narrowing [3]. - **Price Data**: Various price charts of SHFE and COMEX gold and silver, including price trends, spreads, and relationships with other factors such as the US dollar index and US Treasury real interest rates are presented [4][9][12]. Copper - **Price Outlook**: Likely to fluctuate around 86,000 yuan/ton [17]. - **Futures Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai and London copper futures are provided. For example, the Shanghai copper main contract is at 85,660 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.55% [18]. - **Spot Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of various domestic copper spot prices and premiums are presented. For example, the Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 copper is at 85,815 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.72% [23]. - **Import and Processing Data**: Copper import profit and loss and copper concentrate TC data are given. The current copper import profit and loss is - 488.26 yuan/ton, with a daily change rate of 82.21% [28]. - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: The latest data and changes of Shanghai copper warehouse receipts are provided. The total Shanghai copper warehouse receipts are 49,790 tons, with a daily decline of 9.44% [33]. Aluminum - **Price Outlook**: Shanghai aluminum will fluctuate and adjust in the short - term with a higher price center; alumina is in an oversupply situation [37]. - **Futures Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai and London aluminum and alumina futures are provided. For example, the Shanghai aluminum main contract is at 21,340 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.88% [39]. - **Spot Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of various domestic aluminum spot prices, premiums, and spreads are presented. For example, the East China aluminum price is at 21,380 yuan/ton, with a daily change rate of 9.09% [46]. - **Inventory Data**: The latest data and changes of Shanghai and London aluminum and alumina warehouse receipts are provided. For example, the total Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts are 69,283 tons, with a daily decline of 0.18% [53]. Zinc - **Price Outlook**: Uncertainty exists due to cooling interest rate cut expectations and supply - side issues. Observe export and macro factors and the bottom space at the end of the month [59]. - **Futures Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai and London zinc futures are provided. For example, the Shanghai zinc main contract is at 22,395 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.07% [60]. - **Spot Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of various domestic and international zinc spot prices and premiums are presented. For example, the SMM 0 zinc average price is at 22,440 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.04% [68]. - **Inventory Data**: The latest data and changes of Shanghai and London zinc warehouse receipts are provided. For example, the total Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts are 72,897 tons, with a daily decline of 1.05% [72]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price Outlook**: Ferronickel prices are falling, and the downside space for nickel and stainless steel is greater than the upside space. Stainless steel has high shipment pressure [75]. - **Futures and Related Data**: The latest prices, changes, trading volumes, open interests, and warehouse receipt data of Shanghai and London nickel and stainless steel futures are provided. For example, the Shanghai nickel main contract is at 114,050 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 1% [76]. - **Downstream Data**: Data on nickel ore prices, inventory, and downstream profit margins are presented, such as the price of Philippine laterite nickel ore 1.5% (FOB) and the profit margin of China's integrated MHP production of electrowon nickel [80][83]. Tin - **Price Outlook**: Shanghai tin will maintain a high - level shock, with support expected around 276,000 yuan [88]. - **Futures Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai and London tin futures are provided. For example, the Shanghai tin main contract is at 290,740 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.44% [89]. - **Spot Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of various tin spot prices are presented. For example, the Shanghai Non - ferrous tin ingot is at 291,300 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.07% [93]. - **Inventory Data**: The latest data and changes of Shanghai and London tin warehouse receipts are provided. For example, the total Shanghai tin warehouse receipts are 5,906 tons, with a daily decline of 1.42% [99]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price Outlook**: The "increasing production and reducing inventory" process has slowed down. High prices have suppressed downstream replenishment willingness. The futures price faces a key pressure level of 100,000 yuan, with limited short - term upward space [104]. - **Futures Data**: The latest closing prices, daily and weekly changes of lithium carbonate futures are provided, along with data on spreads between different contracts [105][107]. - **Spot Data**: The latest prices, daily and weekly changes of various lithium - related spot prices are presented, such as the SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price at 92,300 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1.1% [109]. - **Inventory Data**: The latest data and daily and weekly changes of lithium carbonate exchange inventory, including warehouse receipts, social inventory, smelter inventory, and downstream inventory, are provided [113]. Silicon Industry Chain - **Price Outlook**: Industrial silicon has strong downside support and limited downward space. Polysilicon has limited upside space due to weak fundamentals [115]. - **Industrial Silicon Spot Data**: The latest prices of various industrial silicon products in different regions and their basis data are provided. For example, the East China 553 industrial silicon is at 9,550 yuan/ton [116]. - **Industrial Silicon Futures Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of industrial silicon futures are provided. For example, the industrial silicon main contract is at 8,960 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 1.27% [117]. - **Polysilicon and Related Product Data**: Price data of polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, components, and other products, as well as inventory and production data of the industry chain, are presented [125][136].

本周值 环比变化 上月末值 本月变化 同期值 同期变化 周度产量 316.01 2.35 323.56 -7.55 311.85 4.16 高炉产能利用率（%） 88.58 -0.22 88.61 -0.03 88.53 0.05 表观需求量 324.42 10.83 331.89 -7.47 318.91 5.51 冷轧卷板周产量 84.53 0.57 85.97 -1.44 84.70 -0.17 总库存 402.11 -8.41 406.59 -4.48 315.23 86.88 厂内库存 78.02 0.50 77.66 0.36 78.40 -0.38 社会库存 324.09 -8.91 328.93 -4.84 236.83 87.26 热轧卷板周度数据（20251121） 黑色金属研究员 涂伟华 热轧卷板供需格局有所变化，板材钢厂生产趋稳，热卷 周产量环比增2.35万吨，供应有所回升，继续位于年内高 位，且库存水平偏高，压力相对偏大。不过，热卷需求迎来 改善，周度表需环比增10.83万吨，再度升至年内高位，但 需注意的下游冷轧矛盾未缓解，库存去化有限，而外需平稳 运行为主，需求改善空间受限。总之 ...