投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2025 年 8 月 26 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 螺纹钢供需格局弱稳运行，螺纹供应虽收缩，但品种吨钢利润尚可，减量空间有限。相反，螺 纹钢需求延续季节性弱势，且下游未见好转，淡季弱势特征未退，仍易承压钢价。目前来看，市场 情绪好转，且原料上行带来成本支撑，螺纹钢价格震荡企稳，但淡季基本面弱势运行，上行驱动不 强，预期现实博弈下钢价延续震荡运行态势，关注需求表现情况。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 2510 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA60 一线支撑 | 供需格局偏弱，钢价震荡运行 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格， ...

能源化工日报 2025-08-25 原油 2025/08/25 原油早评 能源化工组 行情方面：截至上周五，WTI 主力原油期货收涨 0.29 美元，涨幅 0.46%，报 63.77 美元；布伦 特主力原油期货收涨 0.12 美元，涨幅 0.18%，报 67.79 美元；INE 主力原油期货收涨 2.30 元， 涨幅 0.47%，报 487 元。 数据方面：欧洲 ARA 周度数据出炉，汽油库存环比去库 0.03 百万桶至 8.73 百万桶，环比去 库 0.29%；柴油库存环比累库 1.27 百万桶至 15.16 百万桶，环比累库 9.13%；燃料油库存环 比去库 0.11 百万桶至 6.64 百万桶，环比去库 1.60%；石脑油环比去库 0.75 百万桶至 4.97 百 万桶，环比去库 13.07%；航空煤油环比累库 0.17 百万桶至 7.45 百万桶，环比累库 2.27%； 总体成品油环比累库 0.55 百万桶至 42.95 百万桶，环比累库 1.31%。 刘洁文 甲醇、尿素分析师 从业资格号：F03097315 交易咨询号：Z0020397 0755-23375134 liujw@wkqh.cn 我们认 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - All three industries (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated as neutral [3][7][10] Core Viewpoints - For cotton, the global supply - demand pattern has shifted from loose to tight, but the market doubts the tight pattern. In China, short - term supply shortage supports cotton prices, but weak downstream demand limits the upside. In the medium - term, new cotton listing will suppress prices [2] - For sugar, the Brazilian sugar market has complex changes in exports. The domestic sugar market faces pressure from imported sugar, but potential delays in the new sugar - making season may lead to a price increase in the fourth quarter [4][6][7] - For pulp, the supply pressure remains in the second half of 2025, and the demand is weak both at home and abroad. The pulp price is expected to continue to oscillate at a low level [9][10] Summary by Product Cotton Market News and Key Data - Futures: Cotton 2601 contract closed at 14,100 yuan/ton yesterday, down 25 yuan/ton (-0.18%) from the previous day. Spot: 3128B cotton in Xinjiang was 15,080 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton; the national average was 15,243 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton. India will exempt cotton import tariffs from August 19 - September 30 [1] Market Analysis - International: USDA cut global cotton production and ending stocks, but the market doubts the tight pattern, and ICE cotton is in a shock range. Domestic: Zhengzhou cotton rose with the external market. Short - term supply shortage supports prices, but weak downstream demand limits the upside. Medium - term, new cotton listing will bring new pressure [2] Strategy - Neutral. Low inventory and upcoming textile peak season support prices, but policy regulation and long - term industrial factors limit the upside [3] Sugar Market News and Key Data - Futures: Sugar 2601 contract closed at 5,661 yuan/ton yesterday, down 11 yuan/ton (-0.19%) from the previous day. Spot: Sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 5,980 yuan/ton; in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,855 yuan/ton. In July 2025, Brazilian sugar exports decreased, while ethanol exports increased [4] Market Analysis - International: Brazilian sugar production and crushing data are mixed, and some institutions are lowering Brazilian sugar production estimates. Domestic: The sales progress of domestic sugar has slowed down, and the pressure of imported sugar is increasing [6] Strategy - Neutral. Pressured by processed sugar supply, Zhengzhou sugar will oscillate. In the medium - term, low inventory and potential delays in the new sugar - making season may lead to a price increase in the fourth quarter [7] Pulp Market News and Key Data - Futures: Pulp 2511 contract closed at 5,178 yuan/ton yesterday, down 74 yuan/ton (-1.41%) from the previous day. Spot: Chilean silver star coniferous pulp in Shandong was 5,850 yuan/ton; Russian needle pulp was 5,200 yuan/ton. The imported wood pulp spot market was mostly stable, with some prices following the decline of the futures [8] Market Analysis - Supply: In the first half of 2025, wood pulp imports increased, and domestic production capacity will be put into operation in the second half. Port inventory is high, and supply pressure remains. Demand: Weak consumption in Europe and the US, and weak domestic demand due to the off - season. Terminal demand improvement in the second half of the year is limited [9] Strategy - Neutral. The pulp market fundamentals have not improved significantly, and the price is expected to continue to oscillate at a low level [10]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - For pure benzene, the supply shows a slight increase with the overall supply rising due to the increase in开工率. The demand is also increasing, but the actual demand growth is slow due to low profits. There is a slight decline in port inventory this week, and the supply - demand pattern is expected to improve in August - September, but the improvement space is limited considering high hidden inventory and insufficient terminal demand [5]. - For styrene, the supply pressure remains high with new capacity coming online, but the demand from EPS and PS sectors has increased, and there is a de - stocking trend in inventory. The supply - demand surplus is expected to ease marginally in August - September, and attention should be paid to the implementation of new capacity and exports [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary (1) Fundamental Information - Price: On August 18, the styrene main contract closed down 0.14% at 7,230 yuan/ton with a basis of 40 (+0 yuan/ton); the pure benzene main contract closed down 0.05% at 6,186 yuan/ton [4]. - Cost: On August 18, the Brent crude oil main contract closed at 62.8 (-1.2 dollars/barrel), the WTI crude oil main contract closed at 65.9 (-1.0 dollars/barrel), and the spot price of East China pure benzene was 6,095 yuan/ton (-5 yuan/ton) [4]. - Inventory: Styrene sample factory inventory was 20.9 tons (-0.3 tons), a 1.3% de - stocking; Jiangsu port inventory was 14.9 tons (-1.0 tons), a 6.42% de - stocking; pure benzene port inventory was 14.6 tons (-1.7 tons), a 10.43% de - stocking [4]. - Supply: A new styrene plant in Shandong was put into operation, and the overall supply remained stable. The weekly styrene output was 36.9 tons (+1.0 tons), and the factory capacity utilization rate was 78.2% (+0.5%) [4]. - Demand: The capacity utilization rates of downstream 3S varied. EPS capacity utilization rate was 58.1% (+14.4%), ABS was 71.1% (+0%), and PS was 56.7% (+1.7%) [4]. (2) Views - Pure benzene: The supply is increasing, the demand is also rising but the actual increase is slow. There is a slight de - stocking in ports this week. The supply - demand pattern shows signs of improvement in August - September, but the improvement space is limited [5]. - Styrene: The supply pressure is high, the demand has increased in some sectors, and there is a de - stocking trend. The supply - demand surplus is expected to ease marginally in August - September [6]. 2. Industrial Chain Data Monitoring (1) Styrene & Pure Benzene Prices - Styrene futures main contract price changed from 7,238.0 to 7,240.0, a 0.03% increase; spot price changed from 7,656.0 to 7,596.0, a 0.78% decrease; basis changed from 67.0 to 40.0, a 40.30% decrease [8]. - Pure benzene futures main contract price changed from 6,179.0 to 6,189.0, a 0.16% increase; East China price changed from 6,105.0 to 6,100.0, a 0.08% decrease; South Korea FOB price changed from 732.5 to 733.5, a 0.14% increase; US FOB price changed from 799.5 to 796.5, a 0.38% decrease; China CFR price remained unchanged [8]. (2) Styrene & Pure Benzene Output and Inventory - Styrene output in China increased from 35.9 to 36.9 tons, a 2.76% increase; pure benzene output decreased from 44.6 to 44.5 tons, a 0.18% decrease [9]. - Styrene port inventory in Jiangsu decreased from 15.9 to 14.9 tons, a 6.42% decrease; domestic factory inventory decreased from 21.1 to 20.9 tons, a 1.29% decrease; pure benzene port inventory decreased from 16.3 to 14.6 tons, a 10.43% decrease [9]. (3) Capacity Utilization Rates - For pure benzene downstream, styrene capacity utilization rate increased from 77.7 to 78.2, a 0.45% increase; caprolactam increased from 88.4 to 93.7, a 5.31% increase; phenol decreased from 77.1 to 77.0, a 0.07% decrease; aniline decreased from 73.5 to 71.6, a 1.89% decrease [10]. - For styrene downstream, EPS capacity utilization rate increased from 43.7 to 58.1, a 14.41% increase; ABS remained at 71.1, a 0.00% change; PS increased from 55.0 to 56.7, a 1.70% increase [10]. 3. Industry News - China's shale cracking raw material supply is affected by trade and capacity, pushing up naphtha costs, and China is expected to increase naphtha imports to a record 1,600 - 1,700 tons in 2025 [11]. - The global diesel shortage supports refinery profits, which has a structural impact on the crude oil and chemical chains [11]. - India is accelerating petrochemical expansion to counter China's dominant position in the global petrochemical market [11].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The provided text does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The industry's supply - demand pattern shows continuous capacity expansion and weak demand growth, which is consistent with previous research. There are significant differences in cost and formula among paper mills. The cash cost for enterprises to produce double - offset paper that meets the delivery standard is estimated to be in the range of 3800 - 4200 yuan/ton [3][40][42]. - After the futures are listed, double - offset paper prices face potential upward and downward risks. The downward risk comes from the negative feedback between price and cost, while the upward risk is due to the market's possible over - pessimism and high short - trading congestion [4][42][43]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Supply - **Product Structure**: Enterprises focused on publishing have a higher proportion of natural - white paper. Orders from the publishing industry mainly require natural - white paper, while the proportion of natural - white paper in social orders is significantly lower. The difference in product structure between the north and south markets is due to order differences [8]. - **Formula**: Different enterprises have large differences in formula. With the continuous expansion of finished - paper production capacity and the slowdown of cultural - paper demand, enterprises are increasing the use of chemimechanical pulp and reducing the use of chemical pulp. Some producers in South China can make double - offset paper without adding softwood pulp [10][12]. - **Capacity and Production**: Some production lines may switch production. The overall operating level has not decreased significantly. Some enterprises achieved full production and sales in the first half of the year, while others had an operating level of about 80% - 90% [12]. - **Raw Material Procurement**: Most enterprises mainly purchase commercial pulp externally, covering mainstream softwood and hardwood brands. Some enterprises are self - sufficient in chemimechanical pulp, while others purchase it externally. It is difficult for some domestic hardwood pulp to completely replace imported hardwood pulp [15][18]. - **Product Conversion**: Converting between natural - white and high - white paper usually only requires adding bleach [20]. 3.2 Demand - **Sales Channels**: There is significant differentiation among sample enterprises. Publishing orders are mainly direct - sold, while social orders include both distribution and direct - to - printer sales [20]. - **Seasonal Demand**: The seasonal characteristics of demand are gradually being smoothed out. The consumption peak of pulp lags behind that of double - offset paper. There may be an opportunity for the strategy of going long on pulp and short on paper after downstream enterprises complete their bidding [22]. - **Policy Impact**: The "One Textbook, One Supplementary Material" policy has different impacts on publishers of different natures, mainly affecting social book - sellers. It may reduce the double - offset paper demand of private tutoring materials by about 20% - 30% [26]. - **Sales Radius**: Paper enterprises' sales can cover a radius of 500 - 800 km [26]. 3.3 Inventory - **Raw Material Inventory**: Self - produced pulp has little inventory, while the inventory days of externally purchased commercial pulp vary among enterprises, with small and medium - sized factories having shorter inventory days [27]. - **Finished - Product Inventory**: The inventory is slightly higher than last year but generally acceptable. Most enterprises' inventory levels are within one month, and they have clear inventory red lines [27]. - **Downstream Inventory**: Enterprises supplying paper to publishers usually reserve inventory in advance, with a cycle of half a year to one year. Traders may have a certain demand for stockpiling when the price reaches around 4000 yuan [29]. 3.4 Price and Cost - **Pricing Logic**: Paper mills price their products mainly based on orders and market conditions, i.e., demand - driven pricing. High inventory levels may lead to price cuts to reduce inventory [30]. - **Cost Factors**: Formula, wood - pulp self - sufficiency rate, and the presence of self - owned power plants have a significant impact on costs. A higher proportion of chemimechanical pulp and self - owned power plants can reduce costs [31]. - **Profitability**: Most producers still make a profit, while one enterprise is near the break - even point [37]. 3.5 Market Expectations - **Paper Price Outlook**: The industry's supply - demand contradiction is prominent, and most sample participants are not optimistic about paper prices. The downward space is estimated to be around 100 - 200 yuan/ton [38]. - **Futures Attitude**: The willingness of the industry to participate in futures depends on whether their products are delivery brands. Long - side acceptance willingness is relatively weak. Industry short - side forces need to see an absolute high price to enter the market, while long - side chips may come from private book - sellers and some traders with social - order resources [39].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - **Pure Benzene**: Supply increases slightly due to new oil - benzene device production, while hydro - benzene开工率 drops. Demand from phenol rises but is partly offset by the decline in adipic acid. Overall demand is flat. Inventory decreases at East China ports due to typhoon - affected arrivals. 8 - 9月 may see slight inventory reduction, but improvement is limited due to high hidden inventory and weak consumption [5]. - **Styrene**: Supply is sufficient with new device production and resumed operations. Demand is weak, with EPS开工率 dropping significantly and PS/ABS rising slightly. Port inventory doesn't increase but remains high. Mid - term supply pressure persists with new capacity planned. The strong pure benzene price provides some support, and the macro - environment helps sentiment, but fundamental positives are limited [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Daily Market Summary - **Fundamentals** - **Price**: On August 12, styrene futures rose 0.99% to 7322 yuan/ton with a basis of 28 (- 27 yuan/ton), and pure benzene futures rose 0.32% to 6250 yuan/ton [4]. - **Cost**: On August 12, Brent crude closed at 64.0 (+0.1 dollar/barrel), WTI at 66.6 (+0.0 dollar/barrel), and East China pure benzene spot was 6180 yuan/ton (+20 yuan/ton) [4]. - **Inventory**: Styrene factory inventory was 21.1 (-0.6) million tons, a 2.71% decrease; Jiangsu port inventory was 14.9 (-1.0) million tons, a 6.42% decrease. Pure benzene port inventory was 14.6 (-1.7) million tons, a 10.43% decrease [4]. - **Supply**: A new styrene device in Shandong was put into operation. Weekly styrene output was 35.9 (-0.2) million tons, and capacity utilization was 77.7% (-1.2%) [4]. - **Demand**: Among styrene's downstream 3S, EPS capacity utilization dropped 10.6% to 43.7%, ABS rose 5.2% to 71.1%, and PS rose 1.7% to 55.0% [4]. 3.2. Industry Chain Data Monitoring - **Price**: Styrene futures and spot prices rose slightly on August 12 compared to August 11, while the basis decreased. Pure benzene futures, East China spot, and some international prices also changed, with different price differences showing various trends [8]. - **Output and Inventory**: From August 1 to August 8, styrene output decreased by 0.63% to 35.9 million tons, and pure benzene output increased by 2.36% to 44.6 million tons. Styrene and pure benzene inventories at ports and factories all decreased [9]. - **Capacity Utilization**: From August 1 to August 8, the capacity utilization of styrene and some pure - benzene downstream products changed. EPS capacity utilization dropped significantly, while ABS and PS increased [10]. 3.3. Industry News - China's shale cracking raw material supply issues may push up naphtha costs, with an expected record - high naphtha import of 16 - 17 million tons in 2025 [11]. - Global diesel shortage supports refinery profits, affecting the crude oil and chemical chains [11]. - India plans to accelerate petrochemical expansion to counter China's dominance [11]. 3.4. Industry Chain Data Charts The report provides multiple charts showing the historical data of pure benzene and styrene prices, price differences, inventory, and capacity utilization [16][19][21]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The cost of nickel resource supply has increased due to the restrictions on the issuance of the PNBP policy by the Indonesian government, but the production of nickel iron in Indonesia has rebounded significantly. Recently, the price of nickel iron has dropped significantly, weakening the support of raw material costs. [2] - The production profit of steel mills has improved significantly. Due to the rise in steel prices and the weak increase in raw material costs, it is expected that the output of steel mills will increase in August. [2] - As the traditional off - season for downstream consumption is coming to an end, there are optimistic expectations for the peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October". Coupled with the favorable domestic fiscal investment policies, anti - involution measures are expected to improve the supply - demand pattern, and the market's purchasing willingness has recovered. [2] - Recently, the destocking of domestic stainless steel has been good, the market inventory pressure has been reduced, and the spot premium has risen. Technically, with a slight increase in positions and rising prices, the bullish sentiment is strong. It is recommended to go long with a light position. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the stainless - steel futures main contract is 13,000 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 65; the price difference between the 08 - 09 contracts is - 15 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 15. [2] - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 26,366 lots, with a month - on - month increase of 581; the position volume of the main contract is 81,584 lots, with a month - on - month decrease of 2,462. [2] - The warehouse receipt quantity is 103,226 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 423. [2] 现货 Market - The price of 304/2B rolled cut - edge stainless steel in Wuxi is 13,600 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change; the market price of scrap stainless steel 304 in Wuxi is 9,500 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change. [2] - The basis of the SS main contract is 220 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 65. [2] Upstream Situation - The monthly output of electrolytic nickel is 29,430 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 1,120; the total monthly output of nickel iron is 22,600 metal tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 1,300. [2] - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 17,215.27 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 472.3; the monthly import volume of nickel iron is 1.0414 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 193,200. [2] - The spot price of SMM1 nickel is 122,150 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 50; the average price of nickel iron (7 - 10%) nationwide is 920 yuan/nickel point, with no month - on - month change. [2] - The monthly output of Chinese ferrochrome is 757,800 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 26,900. [2] Industry Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.744 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 40,700; the total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 608,000 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 2,300. [2] - The monthly export volume of stainless steel is 458,500 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 29,500. [2] Downstream Situation - The cumulative monthly value of new housing starts is 303.6432 million square meters, with a month - on - month increase of 71.8071 million square meters; the monthly output of excavators is 26,800, with a month - on - month increase of 1,000. [2] - The monthly output of large and medium - sized tractors is 21,700, with a month - on - month decrease of 2,900; the monthly output of small tractors is 10,000, with a month - on - month decrease of 1,000. [2] Industry News - Trump announced a 100% tariff on all imported products containing semiconductors, but companies building or promising to build factories in the US are exempted. [2] - The US plans to impose an additional 15% tariff on the basis of the existing tariffs due to the continuous differences in the US - Japan trade agreement. [2] - Fed Governor Cook said the July employment report was "worrying" and might indicate a turning point in the US economy. [2] - The Indonesian government's PNBP policy restricts the supply of nickel resources, increasing costs, but the production of nickel iron in Indonesia has rebounded. [2]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market in the chemical sector shows a predominantly positive trend, with PTA futures experiencing a slight upward movement, indicating a potential recovery in the market [1] Cost and Profit Analysis - The cost and profit dynamics are primarily influenced by raw material prices, which are currently declining, while PVC prices have seen a slight increase, leading to improved PVC profit margins [1] Supply Side Dynamics - Recent maintenance activities at various chemical plants, including those in Ulanqab, Ordos, and others, have impacted supply. The capacity utilization rate for PVC has increased by 0.05% to 76.84% [1] Demand Side Insights - The overall operating rate of downstream products has shown a slight weekly recovery, particularly in pipe manufacturing. However, demand remains constrained due to adverse weather conditions and ongoing challenges in the real estate sector [1] Market Outlook - The outlook for August suggests continued pressure on supply and demand dynamics, with rising costs for calcium carbide and a return to a bullish trend for coking coal. The overall supply-demand balance is expected to lead to further inventory accumulation, with a recommendation to hold short positions [1]

Report Information - Report Type: Polyolefin Daily Report [1] - Date: July 31, 2025 [2] Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided. Core Viewpoints - The futures market of polyolefins opened higher and fluctuated, which supported the market sentiment. However, the supply - demand pattern has not improved. The supply shows an increasing trend while the demand follow - up is poor. After the short - term market sentiment is digested, the futures price will face downward pressure. Attention should be paid to the introduction of specific stable - growth plans [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Outlook - **Futures Market**: Lianplastic L2509 opened higher, closed at 7387 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton (0.24%), with a trading volume of 245,000 lots and a decrease in positions by 9463 to 334,157 lots. PP main contract closed at 7145 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan, a decline of 0.03%, and positions decreased by 9052 to 299,700 lots [5][6]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The supply is increasing as the planned maintenance capacity decreases, some previous devices restart, and the second - phase project of Ningbo Daxie is planned to be put into production. The demand for agricultural films is at a seasonal low, the start - up of pipes and plastic weaving is stable, the orders in the daily chemical and food fields have slightly improved, but the production order days are extended, and the downstream's ability to accept high - price goods is insufficient, leading to inventory accumulation [6]. 2. Industry News - **Inventory**: On July 30, 2025, the inventory level of major producers was 750,000 tons, a decrease of 30,000 tons (3.85%) from the previous working day, compared with 745,000 tons in the same period last year [7]. - **PE Market Price**: The price of LLDPE in North China is 7200 - 7450 yuan/ton, in East China is 7280 - 7600 yuan/ton, and in South China is 7420 - 7600 yuan/ton [7]. - **Propylene Market Price**: The mainstream price in the Shandong propylene market is 6220 - 6280 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The market sentiment is supported by some positive supply - demand news and the significant increase in international crude oil prices [7]. - **PP Market Price**: The mainstream price of drawn PP in North China is 7000 - 7130 yuan/ton, in East China is 7070 - 7180 yuan/ton, and in South China is 7000 - 7200 yuan/ton [7]. 3. Data Overview - The report provides figures on L basis, PP basis, L - PP spread, crude oil futures main contract settlement price, two - oil inventory, and two - oil inventory year - on - year increase/decrease rate, with data sources from Wind and Zhuochuang Information [9][14][15]

1. Report Information - Report Name: Polyolefin Daily Report [1] - Date: July 29, 2025 [2] 2. Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 3. Core Viewpoints - Futures markets for plastics and PP showed declines, with market sentiment weakening. The supply - demand pattern remained unimproved, with supply increasing and demand not keeping up. After short - term market sentiment digestion, the market is expected to face downward pressure, and attention should be paid to the introduction of specific plans for stable growth [6] 4. Summary by Directory 4.1 Market Review and Outlook - **Futures Market Performance**: The plastics and PP futures contracts all closed lower. For example, plastic 2601 closed at 7400 yuan/ton, down 1.12%; PP2601 closed at 7136 yuan/ton, down 1.18%. The trading volume of plastic 2509 was 389,000 lots, and its open interest decreased by 20,147 to 346,401 lots. The open interest of PP decreased by 29,838 to 325,800 lots [5][6] - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Supply is on the rise as planned maintenance capacity decreases, some previous units are restarted, and new projects like Ningbo Daxie Phase II are planned for production. Demand is weak, with agricultural film demand at a seasonal low, stable开工 in pipes and plastic weaving, slightly improved orders in daily chemicals and food, but longer production order days and low downstream acceptance of high - priced products, leading to inventory accumulation [6] 4.2 Industry News - **Inventory**: On July 28, 2025, the inventory of major producers was 750,000 tons, a decrease of 15,000 tons (1.96%) from the previous working day, compared with 710,000 tons in the same period last year [7] - **Market Prices**: PE market prices fluctuated slightly. LLDPE prices in North China were 7230 - 7450 yuan/ton, in East China 7300 - 7650 yuan/ton, and in South China 7400 - 7650 yuan/ton. Shandong propylene market prices dropped 45 yuan/ton to 6170 - 6220 yuan/ton. PP market prices fell 20 - 50 yuan/ton, with different price ranges in North, East, and South China [7] 4.3 Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including L basis, PP basis, L - PP spread, crude oil futures settlement price, two - oil inventory, and two - oil inventory year - on - year change rate, with data sources from Wind and Zhuochuang Information [10][12][14]