Investment Rating - Investment rating: Positive (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The global demand for polyester bottle chips is steadily increasing, with a CAGR of 6.2% from 2015 to 2024, growing from 20.04 million tons to 34.35 million tons [4][14] - The industry is entering the tail end of the current expansion cycle, with expectations for long-term improvement in profitability as the industry moves past its low point [5][37] - Recent industry-wide production cuts are expected to further enhance price recovery and improve profit margins [6][41] Summary by Sections Demand Side - The global demand for polyester bottle chips has shown a robust upward trend, with Asia-Pacific being the primary market [14][18] - In 2024, the demand for polyester bottle chips in China is projected to reach 8.62 million tons, with the soft drink market accounting for 65% of this demand [19][25] Supply Side - Domestic polyester bottle chip production capacity has increased significantly, from 33.35% of global capacity in 2021 to 47.94% in 2024, making China the world's largest producer [5][36] - The industry is currently experiencing a supply-demand imbalance, leading to a decline in profitability, but this is expected to improve as new capacity additions slow down [5][37] Price Dynamics - The price differential for polyester bottle chips is closely linked to supply and demand dynamics, with recent production cuts leading to a recovery in price differentials from 150-170 RMB/ton to over 400 RMB/ton [6][43] - The industry is anticipated to recover from its current low profitability as production capacity stabilizes and demand continues to grow [31][37] Investment Recommendations - It is recommended to focus on companies benefiting from the industry-wide production cuts and the anticipated recovery in profit margins, including Wan Kai New Materials, Sanfangxiang, and China Resources Materials [7][47]