聚酯产业链日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 本报告中的信息均来源于被广发期货有限公司认为可靠的已公开资料，但广发期货时这些信息的推确性及完整性不作任何保证，本报告反映研究人员的不同观点、见解及分析方 法，并不代表广发期货或其倾眉机楣机构的立场。在任何情况下，报告内容仅供参考，报告中的信息或所袁达的意见并不构成所述品种买卖的出价或均价，投资者局比投资，风险自担 。本报告旨在发送给广发期货特定客户及其他专业人士，版权归广发期货所有，未经广发期货书面授权，任何人不得对本报告进行任何形式的发布，复制，如引用、刊发，需注明 出处为"广发期货"。 知识图强,求实奉献,客户至上,合作共赢 2025年8月25日 张鹏珍 Z0003135 | 下游聚酯产品价格及现金流 | 上游价格 | 涨跌幅 | 8月22日 | 8月21日 | 涨跌幅 | 涨跌 | 单位 | 8月21日 | 品种 | 涨跌 | 品种 | 8月22日 | 单位 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

证券研究报告 行业研究——周报 [Table_ReportType] [Table_StockAndRank] 石油加工行业 刘红光 石化行业联席首席分析师 执业编号：S1500525060002 邮箱：liuhongguang@cindasc.com 刘奕麟 石化行业分析师 执业编号：S1500524040001 邮箱：liuyilin@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDASECURITIESCO.，LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅大厦B 座 邮编：100031 本期内容提要： [Table_Title] 大炼化周报：长丝需求有所回暖，库存、产销 情况改善 [Table_ReportDate0] 2025 年 8 月 24 日 [Table_Author] [Table_Summary] ➢ 国内外重点炼化项目价差跟踪：截至 8 月 22 日当周，国内重点大炼 化项目价差为 2431.20 元/吨，环比变化+29.59 元/吨（+1.23%）； 国外重点大炼化项目价差为 1080.63 元/吨，环比变化-29.81 元/吨（- 2.68%）。截至 8 月 22 日当周，布伦 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company experienced a significant recovery in Q2 2025, with a notable increase in net profit compared to the previous quarter, driven by improved refining and polyester filament price spreads [4][7] - The company is accelerating its layout of high-value differentiated products, with a focus on biodegradable fibers and other high-margin products, positioning itself for future growth [6][7] - The Brunei refining project is expected to benefit from the expanding supply-demand gap in the Southeast Asian refined oil market, enhancing the company's competitive advantage [5][7] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 55.96 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.6%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 230 million yuan, down 47.3% year-on-year. In Q2 alone, revenue was 28.79 billion yuan, down 13.0% year-on-year but up 6.0% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of 175 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 953.9% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 240.2% [3][4] Market Conditions - The average Brent crude oil price in Q2 2025 was $66.76 per barrel, down 22% year-on-year and 11% quarter-on-quarter. The price spread for refining improved significantly, indicating a recovery in the company's performance despite a challenging market environment [4] Growth Prospects - The company has a total polyester production capacity of 13.25 million tons per year, with a focus on differentiated products. The proportion of differentiated fiber production has increased to 27%, leading the industry [6] - The Southeast Asian refined oil market is projected to face a supply-demand gap of 68 million tons by 2026, which the company is well-positioned to exploit through its Brunei refining project [5][7] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted downward due to the declining industry outlook, with expected net profits of 580 million yuan, 764 million yuan, and 965 million yuan respectively. The report maintains a positive outlook on the company's future growth potential [7][8]

Core Viewpoint - The PTA industry is experiencing tight supply and low processing fees, with expectations for a price rebound due to cost support and supply-demand improvements [1][5]. Group 1: PTA Production and Supply - As of early August, domestic PTA processing fees dropped to a historical low of 126 CNY/ton, recently recovering to around 200 CNY/ton, but still low [2]. - The production cost of PTA is approximately 4500 CNY/ton, with companies facing a loss of about 265 CNY/ton [2]. - Domestic PTA production enterprises have shown some operational resilience, with several plants undergoing maintenance and restarts, leading to a slight increase in operating rates [2]. - As of August 20, the operating load of domestic PTA production enterprises was 78.62%, down 4.47 percentage points year-on-year, with a production volume of around 1.38 million tons and a demand of approximately 1.42 million tons, resulting in a supply gap of about 35,000 tons [2]. Group 2: PTA Inventory and Market Conditions - Due to the supply gap, domestic PTA inventory is declining, with social inventory at 3.6952 million tons as of August 15, down 36,300 tons week-on-week and 0.97% lower year-on-year [3]. - Factory inventory of PTA is at 3.66 days, down 0.16 days year-on-year, while polyester factory PTA raw material inventory is at 7.15 days, down 1.06 days year-on-year [3]. Group 3: Polyester Industry and Demand - The polyester industry is currently in a loss state, but conditions have improved, particularly for polyester filament, which has moved from a loss of 200-300 CNY/ton to a near breakeven point [4]. - As of August 20, the operating load of the domestic polyester industry was 86.46%, down 2.83 percentage points year-on-year, with expectations for a slight increase in operating rates due to recent improvements [4]. - Polyester long filament inventory remains high, with significant de-stocking pressure; however, recent price reductions by some polyester companies have led to a decrease in inventory levels [4]. Group 4: Overall Market Outlook - Overall, the PTA supply is tight, production companies are facing increased losses, and there is a demand for price rebound. The processing fees are low and need to be repaired, while the supply side shows lower operating loads and declining inventories, indicating a potential for price rebound supported by costs [5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that Wankai New Materials (301216) is expected to benefit from the recovery of the polyester bottle chip industry and has multiple growth avenues, leading to a "buy" rating [1][2]. - The company is positioned as a leader in the polyester bottle chip sector, with significant cost advantages, and is anticipated to enjoy performance elasticity as the industry emerges from its cyclical low [2][4]. - Wankai New Materials is investing in upstream projects, such as natural gas to ethylene glycol, which will optimize raw material costs, and is expanding internationally with projects in Nigeria and Indonesia, enhancing profit potential [2][4]. Group 2 - The polyester bottle chip industry is experiencing a cyclical bottom, with supply and demand dynamics expected to improve as demand gradually increases [3]. - The industry faced a significant supply-demand mismatch post-pandemic, leading to a peak price difference of around 2000 CNY/ton, but is now projected to reach a production capacity of 20.43 million tons by 2024, doubling from 2018 levels [3]. - The company’s gross profit per ton is expected to exceed the industry average by 46.8 CNY in 2024, indicating strong profitability compared to peers [4]. Group 3 - The forecasted net profits for Wankai New Materials are projected to be 1.23 billion CNY, 4.88 billion CNY, and 7.28 billion CNY for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.24 CNY, 0.95 CNY, and 1.41 CNY [2]. - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 66.7, 16.8, and 11.3 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, indicating potential for growth [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The PTA price is expected to fluctuate weakly due to weak cost and cautious demand expectations. The supply of PX and PTA may increase due to high - device operation rates and new production capacities, while the demand lacks strong support, and inventory may accumulate, putting downward pressure on prices. However, seasonal changes in demand and device changes need to be monitored [1][38]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary 3.1.1 PTA & PX - On August 19, the PX主力contract closed at 6,774.0 yuan/ton, up 0.21% from the previous trading day, with a basis of - 165.0 yuan/ton. The PTA主力contract closed at 4,734.0 yuan/ton, down 0.25% from the previous trading day, with a basis of - 64.0 yuan/ton [2]. - The cost - end: On August 19, the Brent crude oil主力contract closed at 66.46 US dollars/barrel, and WTI at 62.58 US dollars/barrel. The demand - end: On August 19, the total transaction volume of the Light Textile City was 487.0 million meters, and the 15 - day average transaction was 485.47 million meters [2]. - Supply side: The operation rates of PX and PTA devices remain high, and with the gradual implementation of new production capacities, the pressure of increased industry supply may continue to be released. The cost - end drive of PX is weak under the background of low - level fluctuations in crude oil prices, and the processing fees of PTA are suppressed by over - capacity, and the willingness of factories to increase production may further exacerbate the supply - loosening situation [2]. - Demand side: The transactions in the Light Textile City maintain a weak and stable pattern. Although the downstream polyester operation rate has not weakened significantly, the fabric orders lack substantial improvement. The traditional textile peak season is approaching, but the demand has not shown a continuous improvement, and the terminal negative feedback pressure continues to be transmitted upstream, making it difficult for the PTA demand side to form effective support [2]. - Inventory side: The PTA factory inventory is restricted by the weak basis structure, and the social inventory continues to accumulate. Currently, there are not many active production - reduction actions by factories, and there is still pressure on the price ceiling [3]. 3.1.2 Polyester - On August 19, the short - fiber主力contract closed at 6,432.0 yuan/ton, down 0.46% from the previous trading day. The spot price in the East China market was 6,500.0 yuan/ton, up 20.0 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a basis of 68.0 yuan/ton [4]. - Supply side: The PX price has recently shown high - level fluctuations (ranging from 6,614 to 6,832 yuan/ton from August 11 - 19), but the PTA price has risen steadily (up 1.4% to 4,746 yuan/ton during the same period), indicating that the cost - end support is weakening but the downstream acceptance is good [4]. - Demand side: The 15 - day moving average transaction volume of the Light Textile City has continuously rebounded from 479 million meters to 485 million meters, reflecting the gradual recovery of terminal textile demand [4]. - Inventory side: There is a structural differentiation in inventory. The inventory days of polyester staple fiber (7.25 days) are significantly higher than the five - year average (4.96 days), while the inventory of polyester filament POY (16.1 days) is lower than the average (20.4 days), and the inventory of FDY/DTY is basically the same as the historical average. The high - inventory pressure of short - fiber may restrict the overall increase, and continue to pay attention to polyester production - reduction information [4]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - PX futures: The主力contract price on August 19 was 6,774 yuan/ton, up 0.21% from the previous day; the成交volume increased by 68.14%, and the持仓volume increased by 6.83%. PX spot: The CFR price at the main Chinese port remained unchanged at 833.33 US dollars/ton, and the FOB price in South Korea increased by 0.25% [5]. - PTA futures: The主力contract price on August 19 was 4,734 yuan/ton, down 0.25% from the previous day; the成交volume decreased by 16.25%, and the持仓volume decreased by 2.41%. PTA spot: The CFR price at the main Chinese port remained unchanged at 623 US dollars/ton [5]. - Short - fiber futures: The主力contract price on August 19 was 6,432 yuan/ton, down 0.46% from the previous day; the成交volume increased by 7.48%, and the持仓volume decreased by 0.53%. Short - fiber spot: The mainstream price in the East China market increased by 0.08% [5]. - Other prices: The prices of Brent crude oil, US crude oil, CFR Japanese naphtha, ethylene glycol, polyester chips, polyester bottle flakes, polyester POY, polyester DTY, and polyester FDY remained unchanged or changed slightly on August 19 compared with the previous day [5]. - Processing spreads: The processing spreads of naphtha decreased by 1.09%, and the processing spreads of PTA decreased by 1.57%, while the processing spreads of other products remained unchanged [6]. - Light Textile City transaction volume: On August 19, the total transaction volume was 487 million meters, a decrease of 4.32% compared with the previous day, with the long - fiber fabric volume decreasing by 2.72% and the short - fiber fabric volume decreasing by 9.71% [6]. - Industrial chain load rates: The load rates of PTA factories, polyester factories, and Jiangsu - Zhejiang looms remained unchanged on August 19 [6]. - Inventory days: From August 7 to August 14, the inventory days of polyester staple fiber, POY, FDY, and DTY all decreased [6]. 3.3 Industry Dynamics and Interpretation 3.3.1 Macroeconomic Dynamics - On August 19, due to the UK inflation data being higher than expected, traders reduced their bets on the Bank of England's interest - rate cuts, believing that there would be no further cuts this year [7]. - On August 18, Fed's Daly said to wait for more data, and the number of interest - rate cuts may be less or more. It is still a good prediction to cut interest rates twice this year; Goolsbee said that the latest PPI and CPI inflation data were disturbing. If signs show that inflation is not in a spiral in September or later in the fall, interest rates can be cut. The market reduced its bets on interest - rate cuts but still expected a cut in September and another cut in 2025 [7]. - On August 18, Hong Kong's Financial Secretary Paul Chan said that the plan for Hong Kong to develop an international gold trading center would be announced within the year [7]. 3.3.2 Supply - Demand (Demand) - On August 19, the total transaction volume of the Light Textile City was 487.0 million meters, a month - on - month decrease of 4.32%, with the long - fiber fabric transaction volume at 393.0 million meters and the short - fiber fabric transaction volume at 93.0 million meters [8]. 3.4 Industrial Chain Data Charts The report provides multiple data charts, including PX and PTA主力futures and basis, PX and PTA spot prices, PX capacity utilization, PTA futures monthly spreads, PTA processing profits, industrial chain load rates, polyester short - fiber and long - fiber sales situations, Light Textile City transaction volume moving average, and polyester product inventory days [9][11][13].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the chemical industry [2] Core Insights - The chemical industry is expected to benefit from anti-involution policies aimed at curbing disorderly competition and eliminating outdated production capacity, which may lead to a recovery in industrial product prices and positively impact PPI and CPI [6][11][17] - The report highlights the significant influence of the energy and chemical sectors on PPI, with their price fluctuations directly affecting overall industrial inflation levels [16] - The industry is under pressure from declining product prices and reduced capacity utilization, leading to a strong demand for anti-involution measures [17] - The current valuation of the chemical industry is at a historical low, providing substantial upside potential as the sector is expected to recover from its cyclical bottom [17][19] Summary by Sections 1. Importance of Inflation Recovery - The report emphasizes that the chemical sector is a crucial lever for inflation recovery, as evidenced by the PPI's continuous decline and the need for policy intervention to combat deflationary pressures [6][11] 2. Reasons to Focus on Chemicals - The energy and chemical sectors account for 25%-30% of PPI, making their price recovery vital for overall inflation [16] - The industry faces significant profitability challenges, with nearly 25% of chemical companies reporting losses in 2024 [17] 3. Paths for Anti-Involution in Chemicals 3.1. Active Approach: Industry Self-Regulation - Certain sub-industries, such as polyester filament and sucralose, are attempting to improve profitability through supply-side collaboration, benefiting from high concentration and low profitability [27][29] - The report identifies key chemical products likely to benefit from self-regulation, including polyester filament, polyester bottle chips, and organic silicon [29][31] 3.2. Passive Approach: Policy-Driven Industry Improvement - The report outlines a dual-track policy framework focusing on optimizing existing capacity and strictly controlling new projects to enhance the competitive landscape [27][31] - Historical experiences suggest that effective policy measures will include phasing out outdated facilities and enforcing stricter environmental regulations [27][31]

直纺短纤负荷(周) 90. 30% 90. 60% 0. 00 涤纶短纤产销 43.00% 14.00% 57.00% 涤纱开机率(周) 61. 50% 62. 00% 0. 01 再生棉型负荷指数(周) 49. 50% 49.00% (0. 01) 涤纶短纤与纯涤纱价格 涤纶短纤现金流 10000 14000 10000 1800 (探偵) 太原始第 (零收) 配日员(左特) T325纯涤纱价格 ■ 1.4D直红杀短 会短坝金流 9000 9000 13000 1400 8000 8000 12000 1000 7000 7000 6000 11000 600 6000 5000 10000 200 5000 4000 4000 -200 9000 - 3000 2025-01-01 2021-01-01 2022-01-01 2023-01-01 2024-01-01 2021-01-01 2022-01-01 2023-01-01 2024-01-01 2025-01-01 涤棉纱65/35 45S价格与利润 中空短纤价格与现金流 10000 2500 22500 4000 条棉纱利润 泽棉纱 65/3 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report -地缘冲突 persists, with Trump's meetings with leaders of Ukraine and major European countries yielding no clear results. South American oil supply increases and the production of sanctioned countries remains strong, pressuring oil prices to decline gradually. [2] - Two 800,000 - ton PX plants in South China will restart soon, restoring PX supply. PX inventory is at a historical low, providing strong support at the bottom. Whether PX profitability can continue to rise depends on unexpected factors. [2] - Recently, there are more PTA plant overhauls, and the low processing fee continues to be favorable. The PTA market has a small increase, and the spot offer basis strengthens. However, with new plant commissioning expected on the supply - side and weak demand in the off - season, it's difficult to boost prices. [2] - The polyester bottle - chip market in Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions is trading between 5880 - 5970 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The supply - side quotes mostly increase, and downstream demand is for rigid needs, with a general trading atmosphere. [2] - Without unexpected good news, it is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will run in a volatile manner. [2] 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Price Information - **Upstream**: On August 19, 2025, WTI crude oil futures settlement price was $62.35/barrel, down 1.69% from the previous value; Brent crude oil was $65.79/barrel, down 1.22%; naphtha spot price in CFR Japan was $574.50/ton, up 0.66%; isomeric xylene FOB Korea was $676.00/ton, down 0.66% [1] - **PTA Price**: CZCE TA main contract closing price was 4734 yuan/ton on August 19, 2025, down 0.25%; settlement price was 4746 yuan/ton, up 0.42%. Domestic PTA spot price was 4666 yuan/ton, up 0.15%. [1] - **PX Price**: CZCE PX main contract closing price was 6774 yuan/ton on August 19, 2025, up 0.21%; settlement price was 6792 yuan/ton, up 1.34%. Domestic p - xylene spot price on August 18 was 6609 yuan/ton, up 0.43%. [1] - **PR Price**: CZCE PR main contract closing price was 5906 yuan/ton on August 19, 2025, down 0.37%; settlement price was 5916 yuan/ton, up 0.34%. The market price of polyester bottle - chips in East China and South China remained unchanged at 5920 yuan/ton and 5940 yuan/ton respectively. [1] - **Downstream Price**: CCFEI price indices of most downstream products such as polyester filament and bottle - grade chips remained unchanged on August 19, 2025, while the price indices of polyester staple fiber and polyester chips increased slightly, up 0.31% and 0.34% respectively. [2] 3.2 Spread Information - On August 19, 2025, the PXN spread was $260.50/ton, down 0.79%; the PX - MX spread was $159.00/ton, up 4.04%. [1] - The PTA near - far month spread was - 50 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 44 yuan/ton, up 37 yuan/ton from the previous value. The PX basis was - 165 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton from the previous value. The PR basis in East China and South China markets increased by 22 yuan/ton. [1] 3.3 Production and Sales Information - On August 19, 2025, the PX operating rate was 80.38%, unchanged; the PTA plant load rate was 75.09%, down 2.58 percentage points; the polyester plant load rate remained at 87.30%. [1] - The sales rates of polyester filament, polyester staple fiber, and polyester chips increased by 5.30%, 12.63%, and 11.05% respectively on August 19, 2025. [1] 3.4 Device Information - Ningbo Taihua's 1.5 million - ton PTA plant started maintenance on August 7, expected to last for 2 months; Yisheng Dalian's 2.25 million - ton PTA plant started maintenance on August 8, expected to last for 1 month; Yisheng Hainan's 2 million - ton PTA plant is planned for technical renovation from August 15 for 3 months. [2] 3.5 Transaction Strategy - After the price correction, it maintains a volatile trend. The TA2601 contract closed at 4734 yuan/ton (up 0.17%), with a daily trading volume of 549,300 lots; the PX2601 contract closed at 6774 yuan/ton (up 1.07%), with a daily trading volume of 222,000 lots; the PR2511 contract closed at 5906 yuan/ton (up 0.17%), with a daily trading volume of 42,600 lots. [2]

Summary of Hengyi Petrochemical Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Hengyi Petrochemical - **Industry**: Petrochemical and Polyester Manufacturing Key Financial Performance - **H1 2025 Performance**: - Refining segment profit: 50 million RMB - PTA profit: 20 million RMB - Polyester loss: 40 million RMB - Jilin Xianan loss: 60 million RMB - Contribution from China Merchants Bank: 250 million RMB [2][4] - **Q2 2025 Performance**: - Refining profit: 30 million RMB - Polyester profit: 70 million RMB - Polybenzene profit: 15 million RMB - Contribution from Zheshang Bank: 50 million RMB [2][4] Market Dynamics - **Price Trends**: - Gasoline price spread decreased from $11/barrel to $8/barrel - Diesel price spread increased to $20/barrel - PX price spread improved, benzene price stabilized around $160 - PTA price spread increased by 30% to $370 in Q2 [2][5] - **Production Adjustments**: - 15% coordinated production cut for FDY in August, resulting in a price increase of approximately 200 RMB/ton - Previous coordinated production cut across all filament categories reached 23% [2][8][9] Future Capacity and Demand Outlook - **New Capacity Projections**: - 2024: 1 million tons of polyester filament, growth rate of 2.5% - 2025: 1.9 million tons, growth rate of 3%-4% - Demand growth expected at 3%-5%, covering new capacity [2][7] - **Market Recovery**: - Market has bottomed out and is expected to recover moderately, supported by anti-involution policies [2][7] Product-Specific Insights - **Nylon Project**: - Qingzhou project has a complete industrial chain, making it cost-competitive - Nylon market is small but has a high growth rate due to new capacity [11][12] - **Polyester Products**: - Polyester filament and bottle chip price spreads have shown improvement, with short fibers outperforming long fibers [5][10] Financial Health and Strategy - **Cash Flow**: - Cash and cash equivalents at the end of Q2: 7.4 billion RMB - Negative cash flow from investment activities due to significant expenditures on the Qinzhou project [18] - **Debt Management**: - Dollar loans approximately $1.1 billion, with interest rates around 4% [24] Industry Trends and Regulatory Environment - **Southeast Asia Market**: - High growth in refined oil demand, with a supply gap of approximately 70 million tons [15][16] - **Regulatory Impact**: - Company’s PTA facilities are relatively new and not significantly affected by the scrutiny of outdated capacities [19] Production and Sales Performance - **Sales Rates**: - Q2 sales rates for various products were high, with polyester filament at 105% and PTA at 104% [17] Future Plans and Capital Expenditure - **Capital Expenditure**: - Focus on completing the Guangxi integrated project and gradual advancement of the Brunei Phase II project [23] - **Production Strategy**: - No plans for a permanent production cut mechanism; adjustments will be made based on market conditions [25] This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, highlighting the financial performance, market dynamics, future outlook, and strategic plans of Hengyi Petrochemical.