Workflow
补涨交易逻辑
icon
Search documents
中信证券:鲍威尔鸽派发言后,“补涨”的交易逻辑将主导接下来的美股市场
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-08-24 08:15
Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole central bank summit aligns with previous expectations, emphasizing the downside risks in the labor market and reiterating the view from the July meeting that "tariff inflation is transitory," paving the way for rate cuts in September [1] Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates three times this year, each by 25 basis points [1] - The Fed has abandoned the average inflation targeting framework, returning to a flexible inflation targeting approach, and has modified its language to emphasize attention to "dual" labor market risks [1] Market Implications - Following Powell's dovish remarks, the main theme of "rate cut trades" in the U.S. stock market has been clarified, with a "catch-up" trading logic expected to dominate the upcoming market [1] - Similar to the "rate cut trades" in July 2024, sectors sensitive to interest rates such as Russell 2000, S&P 500 Real Estate, and Nasdaq Biotechnology may experience upward trends again [1] Currency and Bond Market - There remains a gap between market expectations for two rate cuts by the Fed and the company's forecast of three cuts, suggesting slight downward potential for U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar index [1] Global Equity Market - Powell's dovish comments and a weaker U.S. dollar are expected to boost risk appetite in global equity markets [1] Gold Market - The expectation of rate cuts is likely to support gold prices, although caution is advised regarding potential negative impacts from a possible agreement between Russia and Ukraine [1]