今年以来，在宏观政策发生重大变化的背景下，美国经济展现出韧性。就美联储的双重使命和货币政策 的双重目标而言，劳动力市场接近充分就业，通胀率仍然偏高，但已经从疫情后的峰值大幅回落。风险 平衡正在发生变化。今天首先讨论当前宏观经济形势和货币政策前景，然后讨论对货币政策框架第二次 公开审查评估结果，这一结果主要体现在今天发布的《长期目标和货币政策战略声明》修订版中。 关税政策所带来的物价压力可能引发长期通胀，就业风险也正在上升 一年前，当我在这里发言的时候，美国经济正处在拐点。央行基准利率，即联邦基金利率，已经在一年 多的时间里维持在5.25%至5.5%。当时这一限制性货币政策立场是适当的，不仅抑制了通货膨胀，而且 推进了供求关系再平衡，劳动力市场也从过热状态降温。当时，通胀上行的风险明显减弱，但失业率却 意外上升了近一个百分点。这一现象除了"大衰退"时期之外，还从来没有出现过。为此，2024年下半 年，我们调整了货币政策立场，连续三次降息，为劳动力市场在过去一年保持接近充分就业的均衡奠定 了基础。 今年以来，美国经济面临新挑战。对贸易伙伴国大幅提高关税的政策措施，正在重构全球贸易体系。更 加严格的移民政策导致劳动 ...

Group 1: U.S. Economic Indicators - U.S. manufacturing PMI rose from 49.8 to 53.3, exceeding market expectations of 49.7[8] - New home starts increased by 10.6 percentage points to 12.9%, the highest since December 2023[10] - Existing home sales annualized at 4.01 million units, above the expected 3.92 million[10] Group 2: Market Reactions - U.S. stock indices showed mixed performance, with the S&P 500 up 0.3% and the Nikkei 225 down 1.7%[3] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell by 7 basis points to 4.26%[3] - The U.S. dollar index decreased by 0.12% to 97.72[3] Group 3: Federal Reserve Policy Outlook - Powell signaled a dovish shift at the Jackson Hole meeting, indicating potential rate cuts in September[1] - The Fed may implement a maximum of two rate cuts within the year due to inflation concerns[1] - The ECB is expected to remain on hold in September, as inflation is no longer a primary focus[1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to initiate interest rate cuts in September, as indicated by Chairman Powell's remarks at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Conference, which has led to a positive reaction in global capital markets [1][3]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Framework Changes - The Federal Reserve is undergoing a fundamental adjustment in its monetary policy framework, shifting from an "average inflation targeting" approach to a "flexible inflation targeting" system, which is expected to have significant implications for policy direction beyond September [3][5]. - The "average inflation targeting" framework considers the average inflation over a period, which could limit the space for rate cuts if past high inflation rates are included in calculations. In contrast, the "flexible inflation targeting" focuses on current inflation levels, allowing for rate cuts if present inflation shows significant decline [5][9]. Group 2: Inflation and Interest Rate Dynamics - Current inflation rates have decreased from a peak of 9% to around 3%, suggesting that the existing federal funds rate of 4.25-4.5% may have room for adjustment to better align with current inflation levels [7][9]. - The potential for a significant drop in inflation in 2026 due to high base effects could provide further justification for rate cuts, as the annual inflation rate may approach the 2% target with the new framework's focus on current data [9][11]. Group 3: Future Implications - The adjustment in the monetary policy framework is seen as paving the way for future easing measures, with the current environment being favorable for rate cuts, supported by both the new framework and anticipated improvements in inflation data [11].

Economic Outlook - Powell's speech at Jackson Hole indicates a dovish stance, suggesting a potential interest rate cut in September[3] - Job growth has slowed to an average of only 35,000 per month over the past three months, significantly below the 168,000 per month expected for 2024, indicating weakening labor market resilience[3] - The unemployment rate has risen to 4.2%, reflecting a balance in the labor market but with increasing downside risks to employment[3] Inflation and Tariff Impact - The PCE inflation rate is at 2.6% year-on-year, with core PCE at 2.9%, indicating inflation pressures but Powell views tariff impacts as a temporary shock[4] - Powell believes the likelihood of a wage-price spiral is low due to a weak labor market, which mitigates concerns about sustained inflation[4] Policy Implications - The focus on employment risks outweighs concerns about inflation, opening the door for potential rate cuts[5] - The Federal Reserve's internal division on rate cuts has increased, with some members supporting a dovish approach, enhancing the likelihood of a September rate cut[5] Economic Risks - The probability of recession in the next 12 months has risen to over 60%, reflecting market concerns about economic hard landing risks[6] - Recent employment data shows only 73,000 new jobs added in July, far below the expected 104,000, indicating a downward trend in labor market strength[8] Long-term Policy Framework - The revision of the Federal Reserve's long-term goals emphasizes a flexible inflation targeting approach, moving away from the average inflation targeting strategy[18] - The updated framework allows for a balanced approach when employment and inflation targets conflict, providing the Fed with greater operational flexibility[21]

Group 1: US Market Focus - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates three times this year, with each cut being 25 basis points, as indicated by Powell's comments at the Jackson Hole summit [10][15][16] - The "rate cut trade" has been reestablished, with a focus on stocks like Mobileye and Klaviyo, as well as the Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight Real Estate ETF [10][17][22][23] - Mobileye is positioned for growth in the advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS) market, with significant orders expected for its L2+/L3/L4 products by 2024 and partnerships with major automotive companies [22] - Klaviyo, a leading digital marketing platform, is projected to capture a growing market share, with a focus on cross-selling new products and expanding into adjacent markets [22] Group 2: European Market Focus - The path to peace between Russia and Ukraine remains challenging, with significant obstacles in territorial conditions and security assurances [30][34] - European defense spending is expected to increase significantly, with NATO members committing to raise defense budgets to 5% of GDP, benefiting companies like Rheinmetall and Rolls-Royce [35][39] - Rheinmetall is well-positioned to benefit from increased defense spending, with projected annual revenue growth of 20% through 2030 due to rising demand for military equipment [39] - Rolls-Royce is experiencing growth in its civil aviation business, supported by strong demand across all end markets, while also benefiting from increased defense spending [39] Group 3: Philippine Market Focus - The Philippine economy showed stronger-than-expected GDP growth in Q2 2025, driven by improved employment and loose monetary policy, with further interest rate cuts anticipated [49][52] - The Philippine stock market is seen as attractive due to low valuations, with the MSCI Philippines Index trading at approximately 11 times earnings, and is expected to benefit from regional capital inflows [52] - Key sectors to watch include banking, utilities, and real estate, with specific companies like BPI, BDO Unibank, Converge, and Ayala Land highlighted for their potential [52][53]

Market Performance - The Hong Kong stock market indices showed strong performance, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 1.94% to 25,829.91 points, the Tech Index increasing by 3.14% to 5,825.09 points, and the National Enterprises Index up by 1.85% to 9,248 points [2] - The Tech Index reached an intraday high of 5,847.95 points, marking the highest level since March 21 [4] Tech Sector Insights - Zheshang Securities noted that the Hang Seng Tech Index had lagged in the current market rally, impacted by the "takeout war" affecting profit expectations and the ongoing weakness of the Hong Kong dollar leading to liquidity tightening by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority [6] - The liquidity in Hong Kong's banking system has returned to normal levels, with limited room for further tightening, and the Hong Kong dollar has appreciated significantly [6] - The dovish signals from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole meeting may enhance liquidity expectations for Hong Kong stocks, suggesting potential for a rebound in the Hang Seng Tech Index [6] Gold and Precious Metals - Gold stocks surged following the dovish comments from the Federal Reserve, with Zijin Mining rising by 6.28%, Lingbao Gold by 5.21%, and China Gold International by 4.95% [8] - Market expectations for a September rate cut increased from 75% to 90% after Powell's remarks, which are expected to support gold prices [9] Automotive Sector - NIO led the automotive sector with a significant increase of 15.17%, following the launch of its new ES8 model, which has a starting price of 416,800 yuan [11][12] - Other automotive stocks such as Brilliance China and GAC Group also saw notable gains of 10.34% and 8.45%, respectively [11] Renewable Energy Sector - The photovoltaic sector experienced gains, with GCL-Poly Energy rising by 14.29% after the China Photovoltaic Industry Association called for an end to cut-throat competition [13][14] Real Estate Sector - Real estate stocks gained traction following policy easing measures in Shanghai, with Vanke rising by 9.86%, Oceanwide Holdings by 6.78%, and Sunac China by 6.58% [15][16] Individual Stock Movements - Dongfeng Group saw a dramatic increase of 54.10% due to its announcement of privatization and delisting plans [17] - Kingstone Mining rose by 14.34% following new regulations on rare earth mining and processing [18]

Core Viewpoint - The recent dovish signals from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole conference have increased market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut in September, which is likely to support gold prices and initiate a new upward trend in the gold market [4]. Group 1: Gold ETF Fund Performance - As of August 25, 2025, the Gold ETF Fund (159937) has risen by 0.60%, with a latest price of 7.41 yuan, and a cumulative increase of 12.03% over the past six months as of August 22 [3]. - The Gold ETF Fund has seen a turnover rate of 1.04% and a trading volume of 298 million yuan, with an average daily trading volume of 626 million yuan over the past month, ranking it among the top two comparable funds [3]. - The fund has experienced continuous net inflows over the past three days, with a maximum single-day net inflow of 99.54 million yuan, totaling 122 million yuan, and an average daily net inflow of 40.53 million yuan [5]. Group 2: Market Influences and Expectations - Powell's dovish stance has shifted market expectations for a September rate cut to 91.1%, alleviating previous concerns about the independence of Federal Reserve policy and the uncertainty of the rate cut path, which is expected to lead to a breakout in gold prices [4]. - The price of gold is anticipated to rise in conjunction with copper prices, supported by rate cut expectations and seasonal demand, indicating a potential upward trend for both commodities [4]. Group 3: Fund Metrics and Historical Performance - The Gold ETF Fund has achieved an 80.81% net asset value increase over the past five years, ranking it among the top two comparable funds, with a historical annual return of 80.00% and a 100% probability of profit over a three-year holding period [6]. - The fund's maximum monthly return since inception is 10.62%, with the longest consecutive monthly gain being six months and a maximum gain of 16.53% [6]. - As of August 22, 2025, the fund's Sharpe ratio over the past year is 2.32, indicating strong risk-adjusted returns [6].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is gradually opening the door to interest rate cuts, with a new monetary policy framework that emphasizes flexible inflation targeting and acknowledges the challenges in measuring full employment [2][4]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's New Framework - The new framework indicates a shift away from fixed employment targets, recognizing that full employment is not directly measurable and varies over time [2]. - The Federal Reserve's adjustment is partly a response to recent revisions in employment data by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which has raised questions about the credibility of employment statistics [2][3]. - The framework retains the complementary assumption between employment and inflation targets, allowing for some discretionary power in policy decisions [4]. Group 2: Impact of Digital Technology - Digital technology is changing the transmission mechanisms of monetary policy, complicating the speed and boundaries of policy effects [3]. - The emergence of decentralized stablecoins is altering the medium and ecosystem of currency transmission, increasing the costs for the Federal Reserve to track and analyze monetary flows [3]. Group 3: Global Market Implications - The non-typical interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve may have different impacts on global financial markets due to the evolving global economic structure [4][5]. - The effects of rate cuts will not be uniform across global markets but will depend on the correlation of countries' economic relationships with the U.S. and their acceptance of dollar-based stablecoins [5]. - Countries need to adapt their risk management strategies in response to the changes brought about by the Federal Reserve's policy adjustments and the influence of new technologies [5].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is opening the door to interest rate cuts as it adjusts its monetary policy framework, emphasizing the need for flexibility in achieving full employment and price stability [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's New Monetary Policy Framework - The new framework redefines the goals of full employment and price stability, indicating that fixed employment targets are unsuitable due to their variability over time [1]. - The Federal Reserve has shifted away from a "compensatory" inflation strategy, signaling that upcoming rate cuts are preventive rather than aggressive [1][3]. - The adjustment in the monetary policy framework is partly a response to recent significant revisions in employment data by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, raising concerns about the reliability of employment statistics [1][2]. Group 2: Challenges and Implications - The current environment presents uncertainties regarding the stability and predictability of decision-making, influenced by potential data distortions in employment and price indices [2]. - Digital technology is transforming the transmission mechanisms of monetary policy, complicating the Fed's ability to adapt its framework to these changes [2][3]. - The emergence of decentralized stablecoins is shifting some monetary policy functions from the Federal Reserve to the U.S. Treasury, challenging the Fed's control over macro-financial dynamics [2][3]. Group 3: Global Market Impact - The impact of the Fed's interest rate cuts on global markets will not be uniform but will depend on the economic relationships between countries and their acceptance of dollar-based stablecoins [4]. - Countries need to adjust their risk management strategies in response to the evolving global market dynamics influenced by the Fed's policy changes [4][5]. - The Fed's policy adjustments prompt other central banks to reconsider their traditional frameworks and adapt to new technological and transmission mechanisms [5].

Group 1 - The Jackson Hole Economic Symposium is an annual event held by the Kansas Federal Reserve in August, where central bank leaders announce adjustments or signals regarding monetary policy frameworks, particularly the Federal Reserve Chairman [2][10][11] - In recent years, Powell has made significant announcements at this event, including the average inflation targeting in 2020, reaffirming the temporary inflation view in 2021, and discussing the transition to a rate-cutting cycle in 2024 [2][11] Group 2 - Powell's speech this year emphasized the increasing risks of employment downturn, indicating that while the labor market appears balanced, it is a "strange balance" due to significant supply-demand slowdown, which could lead to increased layoffs and rising unemployment [3][13] - The likelihood of tariff price shocks evolving into sustained inflation seems unlikely, as current impacts are expected to be temporary and not lead to a "wage-price spiral" due to a less tight labor market [3][14] - Powell hinted at a potential rate cut in September, with the probability of a rate cut rising from 72% to 81.3% following his speech, indicating a shift in the Fed's assessment of inflation and employment risks [4][15][16] Group 3 - The adjustment of the Fed's monetary policy framework reflects changes in the macroeconomic environment, moving from an average inflation targeting to a flexible inflation targeting approach, allowing for more adaptability in response to economic conditions [5][21][24] - The removal of the "effective lower bound" statement indicates a recognition that the neutral interest rate may now be higher than in the 2010s, suggesting a shift in the Fed's approach to monetary policy [5][21] - The Fed's focus will now be on achieving a 2% inflation target in the medium term while retaining flexibility to respond to short-term economic developments [5][24]