2025年8月22日，美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会上发表主旨演讲，围绕当日同步发布的 最新版《关于长期目标与货币政策策略的声明》(以下简称《共识声明》)，系统阐述了2025年美联储货 币政策框架的演进情况。作为美联储货币政策的核心指导性文件，《共识声明》自2012年由时任美联储 主席伯南克主导制定以来，已历经2020年、2025年两次重大公开审查与修订。 核心内容有哪些？ 底层逻辑是什么？ 对我国相关改革提供了哪些启示？ 中国农业银行金融市场部高级经济师邢炜近日撰文对上述问题进行了梳理和分析。 美联储货币政策框架的演进脉络：基于《共识声明》的几次关键调整 《共识声明》自2012年制定以来，历经2020年、2025年两次重大公开审查与修订，形成了"确立框架-调 整框架-回归最初框架"的演进轨迹。2012年，《共识声明》首次确立，搭建通胀目标制及双重使命平衡 的基础框架；2020年，《共识声明》首次修订，引入平均通胀目标制和就业缺口规则应对有效利率下限 (ELB，核心是指政策利率下降到该水平后，继续降息无法有效刺激经济)约束；2025年，《共识声明》 第二次修订，放弃特殊规则回归平衡双重使命的初始逻辑 ...

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy framework has evolved significantly since the establishment of the "Consensus Statement" in 2012, with major revisions occurring in 2020 and 2025 to adapt to changing economic conditions [1][2][4]. Summary by Sections Establishment of the Framework - The "Consensus Statement" was first established in 2012, laying the foundation for inflation targeting and balancing dual mandates of maximum employment and price stability [2]. - Key components included a commitment to transparency, proactive policy measures, a defined inflation target of 2% for personal consumption expenditures (PCE), and a focus on maximum employment levels [2]. 2020 Revision - The 2020 revision introduced an average inflation targeting framework and employment shortfall rules to address the constraints posed by the effective lower bound (ELB) on interest rates [3]. - This revision marked a shift from traditional inflation targeting to a long-term average approach, allowing for temporary overshooting of inflation targets [3]. 2025 Revision - The 2025 revision marked a return to a more balanced approach, discarding the average inflation targeting and employment shortfall rules established in 2020 [4]. - The updated framework re-emphasized the dual mandate, reinstating the original inflation targeting strategy and removing the emphasis on the ELB as a defining economic characteristic [4]. Underlying Logic of Framework Evolution - The evolution of the "Consensus Statement" reflects a responsive approach to the primary economic challenges of specific periods, adapting to the dynamic economic landscape [5][10]. - The 2025 adjustments were a response to significant changes in the economic environment post-pandemic, including global supply chain disruptions and rising inflation [10][11]. Implications for Future Policy - The revisions indicate a long-term focus on normalizing monetary policy while balancing short-term risks related to employment and inflation [13][16]. - The return to traditional inflation targeting is expected to enhance inflation expectation management and improve policy transparency [16]. Lessons for Domestic Policy Frameworks - Continuous optimization of monetary policy frameworks is essential to ensure alignment with the evolving real economy [18]. - Future frameworks should be forward-looking and adaptable to structural changes in the economy, rather than relying solely on historical data [18].

Group 1: Federal Reserve's Decision-Making Framework - The Federal Reserve has evolved from a financial system stabilizer to an independent central bank with a dual mandate of maximizing employment and stabilizing prices, guided by the Taylor Rule[1] - The Taylor Rule suggests that based on current economic outlook, the Fed is expected to implement one rate cut in 2026, while traders have priced in 2.7 cuts[1] - The Fed's independence may be challenged by political pressures, particularly from Trump's strong demand for low interest rates[1] Group 2: Economic Implications of Monetary Policy - If the Fed implements cuts beyond what the economy requires, it could lead to a shift from a soft landing to economic expansion, lowering short-term U.S. Treasury yields but increasing long-term yield premiums[1] - A lower dollar interest rate and deteriorating dollar credit conditions may exert depreciation pressure on the dollar and support gold prices to reach new highs[1] - An expanding U.S. economy is likely to boost overall demand, positively impacting U.S. stocks and commodities like copper[1] Group 3: Risks and Historical Context - Historical data shows that the Fed's policy rates have deviated significantly from the Taylor Rule's prescriptions during periods of stagflation and the 2021 "transitory inflation" narrative, with deviations reaching nearly 10%[1] - The risks in the Fed's decision-making stem from academic uncertainties regarding neutral rates, the timing and impact of monetary policy on the real economy, and subjective political influences[1] - The upcoming Fed chair, expected to take office in May 2026, may further complicate the Fed's adherence to data-driven policies due to political correctness[1]

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's dovish remarks at the 2025 Global Central Bank Annual Meeting sparked a rally in global financial markets, with U.S. stock indices rising collectively and the Nasdaq gaining over 2% [1] - Despite the positive market reaction, there are underlying concerns regarding the future path of interest rate cuts, as Powell acknowledged a strong labor market but indicated signs of slowing growth and challenges in supply-demand balance [1][2] - The Fed's subtle adjustment of its policy framework, including the removal of the "average inflation targeting" and tightening of employment goals, suggests a shift towards prioritizing inflation stability around 2%, leading to a potential reduction in expected rate cuts from four to two in 2025 [2] Market Reactions - The uncertainty surrounding the pace of interest rate cuts directly impacts global capital flows, with liquidity expectations driving rebounds in tech stocks in the U.S. However, a slowdown in rate cuts could lead to increased volatility [6] - The recent rise in A-shares is attributed not only to external liquidity but also to domestic policy support and a restoration of market confidence. Historical trends indicate that divergences in Fed policy can affect funding conditions in emerging markets [6] Investor Strategies - Investors are encouraged to adjust their strategies in light of the Fed's "slow lane" approach, which may not be negative but rather a process for the market to regain composure [7] - Short-term strategies should focus on cautious interpretation of market sentiment to avoid overreacting, while mid-term strategies should emphasize industry fundamentals and trends rather than solely relying on rate cut expectations [12] - Long-term strategies should extend capital allocation towards industrial upgrades and international cyclical changes, maintaining resilience in investment portfolios [12] Export Industry Considerations - The Fed's policies significantly influence not only capital markets but also the external trade environment, prompting many export companies to establish independent digital channels for customer acquisition to navigate external volatility [8][9]

Group 1: Current Economic Situation - The U.S. economy has shown resilience amid significant macro policy changes, with the labor market nearing full employment and inflation rates having significantly decreased from post-pandemic peaks [1] - The Federal Reserve's dual mandate is being challenged by rising inflation and employment risks, with the federal funds rate maintained between 5.25% and 5.5% for over a year [2][3] - The GDP growth rate has slowed to 1.2% in the first half of the year, reflecting a decrease in consumer spending and potential long-term impacts on economic growth and productivity due to changes in tax, spending, and regulatory policies [3][4] Group 2: Labor Market Dynamics - Recent employment reports indicate a slowdown in job growth, with an average of 35,000 non-farm jobs added monthly over the past three months, significantly lower than the 168,000 jobs added in 2024 [3] - The unemployment rate has slightly increased to 4.2%, but remains stable, indicating a balance in the labor market despite a decrease in labor supply due to immigration policy changes [3][4] - The labor market appears to be in a precarious balance, with both supply and demand declining, raising concerns about potential job losses and increased unemployment if downward risks materialize [3] Group 3: Inflation and Price Pressures - Tariff policy adjustments have led to price increases for certain goods, with overall personal consumption expenditures (PCE) rising by 2.6% and core PCE by 2.9% over the past year [4] - The impact of tariff adjustments on prices is expected to accumulate in the coming months, raising concerns about the potential for sustained inflation [4][5] - The Federal Reserve is cautious about the possibility of a wage-price spiral, although current labor market conditions do not suggest immediate risks of significant wage increases [4][5] Group 4: Monetary Policy Framework - The revised monetary policy framework aims to adapt to complex economic environments while maintaining the dual mandate of achieving full employment and price stability [7][11] - The Federal Reserve has shifted from an "average inflation targeting" approach back to a "flexible inflation targeting" strategy, emphasizing the importance of stable inflation expectations [12][15] - The revised framework reflects lessons learned from recent economic conditions, including the need for proactive measures when employment and inflation targets conflict [13][14]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00%-4.25% during the FOMC meeting on September 16-17, indicating potential further cuts in the remaining meetings of the year [2][3] - This rate cut is occurring closer to the neutral interest rate, which is neither stimulative nor restrictive, contrasting with last year's higher rates that were more clearly restrictive [2][4] - The current economic conditions do not necessitate aggressive stimulus, as the Fed's officials describe the current rate as "moderately" restrictive, limiting the scope for significant cuts [2][3] Group 2 - The U.S. inflation rate has shown signs of stagnation, with recent data indicating a slight rebound in inflation, which has delayed the Fed's decision to cut rates [3][4] - The Fed's decision comes after a five-year review of its monetary policy framework, which resulted in the abandonment of the average inflation targeting strategy and reaffirmation of the 2% inflation goal [4][5] - The Fed's independence has been challenged by external pressures, particularly from the White House, which has called for more aggressive rate cuts [5][6] Group 3 - The labor market shows signs of cooling, with non-farm payroll data indicating a downward revision in employment numbers, suggesting that the job market is not as robust as previously thought [6][8] - The unemployment rate has risen to a four-year high, although the increase is modest, indicating potential concerns for the labor market [6][8] - The Fed's rate cut is expected to lower borrowing costs, which could stimulate consumer spending and potentially improve employment conditions, although the impact may be limited due to other factors such as uncertainty from trade policies [7][8] Group 4 - The mortgage rates have seen a significant decline, with the average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage dropping to 6.35%, which may lead to increased refinancing activity [8][9] - The overall economic resilience suggests that while the rate cut is beneficial, it may not be urgently needed, as consumer spending has shown consistent growth [6][8] - The labor force participation rate has decreased, contributing to employment challenges, which may not be easily addressed through monetary policy alone [8][9]

Recent Key Events - On August 2, 2025, Federal Reserve Governor Kuger announced his resignation, providing Trump an opportunity to appoint a favored candidate within the Federal Reserve [1] - On August 8, 2025, Trump nominated Stephen Milan for the Federal Reserve Governor position, with a Senate committee vote expected this week and a full Senate vote potentially next Monday, allowing Milan to attend the FOMC meeting on September 18 [1] - On August 22, 2025, Powell delivered a speech at the Jackson Hole annual meeting, signaling a clear dovish stance by shifting the policy focus from "controlling inflation" to "preventing employment risks," interpreted by the market as a precursor to a rate cut in September [1] - On August 23, 2025, the Federal Reserve released the results of its long-term monetary policy framework review, stating it would abandon the average inflation targeting and adopt a "balanced approach" when employment and inflation conflict, acknowledging that employment can exceed maximum levels without posing risks [1] - On August 26, 2025, Trump ordered the dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Cook, who has since filed a lawsuit; on September 10, a U.S. judge temporarily blocked Trump's attempt to fire Cook, issuing an injunction allowing Cook to continue in his role during the lawsuit [1] Future Important Milestones - On September 18, 2025, the Federal Reserve will hold a policy meeting and release new economic forecasts, with the market widely expecting a resumption of the rate cut cycle, particularly following recent weak employment data that has increased expectations for a 50 basis point cut [3] - On October 30, 2025, the Federal Reserve will hold another policy meeting, which will be crucial in determining whether to pause or continue rate cuts, especially if a 50 basis point cut occurs in September [3] - On December 11, 2025, the Federal Reserve will conduct its final policy meeting of the year, which may be pivotal for a potential third (or second) rate cut and will influence market expectations for 2026 policies [3] - In May 2026, the term of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will end, with the option for him to continue as a Federal Reserve Governor until January 31, 2028, if he chooses to remain [3] - In November 2026, the U.S. will hold midterm elections, where a significant Republican victory could challenge the independence of the Federal Reserve, potentially leading Congress to push legislation to undermine its autonomy at the White House's request [3]

Group 1 - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech at the global central bank annual meeting signaled a dovish stance, leading to a significant rise in U.S. stock indices, with the Nasdaq increasing over 2% [3] - Powell emphasized that while the job market is close to full employment, both supply and demand are slowing, indicating potential downside risks [3] - The Fed has quietly changed its framework by removing the "average inflation targeting" and is no longer focused on the "maximum employment gap," prioritizing inflation stabilization at 2% [4] Group 2 - The current market trend is dominated by technology, with strong participation from core funds, suggesting that this momentum is unlikely to end soon [7] - A-shares have seen significant trading activity, with transaction volumes exceeding 30 trillion, indicating a robust market environment [7]

Group 1 - The recent speech by Powell at the global central bank annual meeting signaled a dovish stance, coinciding with the A-share market reaching a ten-year high and entering a bull market [1][3] - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting in mid to late September is a critical point for global market direction, making it a significant topic of discussion [1] - Powell emphasized that while the job market is close to full employment, both supply and demand are slowing, indicating potential downside risks [3][4] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve has made a notable change in its framework by removing the "average inflation targeting" and no longer focusing on the "maximum employment gap," which suggests a shift towards prioritizing inflation stability at 2% [4] - This change implies that the pace of interest rate cuts may not be as rapid as the market anticipates, with projections for 2025 potentially reducing the number of rate cuts from four to two [4] - The current market trend is heavily influenced by the technology sector, which is expected to continue its momentum, as evidenced by the strong performance of indices like the Shanghai Composite and the ChiNext [6]

Group 1: Economic Indicators - The latest US Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.7% year-on-year in July, indicating persistent inflationary pressure[4] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) surged by 0.9% month-on-month, reaching a three-year high with a year-on-year increase of 3.3%[4] - Non-farm payrolls added only 73,000 jobs in July, significantly below expectations, with an average of 35,000 jobs added over the past three months, down from 168,000 per month in 2024[4][5] Group 2: Powell's Key Points - Powell acknowledged the significant slowdown in the labor market, emphasizing that the downward pressure on employment could lead to increased layoffs and rising unemployment rates[5] - He highlighted that tariffs have pushed up prices for certain goods, with the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rising by 2.9% year-on-year as of July 2025[6] - Powell indicated that the balance of risks is shifting, suggesting that the Fed may prioritize supporting the labor market over solely focusing on inflation control[10] Group 3: Market Reactions - The bond market showed limited movement despite Powell's potential rate cut signals, possibly due to government intervention using tariff revenues to stabilize bond prices[11] - In contrast, the stock market reacted positively, with major indices rising significantly, particularly technology and growth stocks, reflecting investor optimism about liquidity support from the Fed[12] - The divergence in market reactions highlights differing expectations regarding future economic scenarios, with bond investors concerned about long-term inflation risks while stock investors focus on short-term liquidity improvements[16] Group 4: Implications for China - China should maintain ample macro policy space to respond to external shocks, given the rising uncertainty in US economic policies and global financial conditions[19] - Emphasis on expanding domestic demand is crucial for reducing reliance on external markets, which includes income distribution reforms and increased investment in new infrastructure and technology[20] - Strengthening Hong Kong's position as an international financial center can attract global capital and support technology financing, enhancing China's economic resilience[21]