2025年全球央行年会落幕，美联储主席鲍威尔的发言无疑是全场焦点。他的鸽派表态引爆了全球金融市场，美股三大指数集体上扬，纳指涨幅超过2%，而 A股也延续强势走势，多次刷新十年高点。看似利好频传，但在市场情绪的喧嚣背后，一个核心问题值得深思：未来的降息路径究竟会不会像投资者期待的 那样顺畅？ 鸽派基调下的隐性担忧 鲍威尔承认，美国就业市场依旧强劲，但增长动能已出现放缓迹象，供需平衡正面临挑战。这样的表态，表面看像是为降息打开了大门，但背后其实透露出 另一层含义：一旦经济进一步失衡，美联储的政策空间可能受限。 与此同时，新的贸易政策已经推高部分商品价格，短期通胀压力回升。尽管鲍威尔称其为"一次性冲击"，但市场并不完全买账，担心成本传导会带来连锁效 应。换句话说，美联储在平衡就业和通胀之间，其实比想象中更棘手。 全球市场的连锁反应 降息节奏的不确定性，直接影响到全球资金流动。对美股而言，流动性预期推动科技股反弹，但一旦节奏放缓，波动也将加剧。 对A股来说，近期的上涨并非全靠外部流动性，还叠加了国内政策加码和市场信心修复。但历史经验告诉我们，一旦美联储的政策路径出现分歧，新兴市场 的资金面也会受到牵动。投资者在情绪亢 ...

今年以来，在宏观政策发生重大变化的背景下，美国经济展现出韧性。就美联储的双重使命和货币政策 的双重目标而言，劳动力市场接近充分就业，通胀率仍然偏高，但已经从疫情后的峰值大幅回落。风险 平衡正在发生变化。今天首先讨论当前宏观经济形势和货币政策前景，然后讨论对货币政策框架第二次 公开审查评估结果，这一结果主要体现在今天发布的《长期目标和货币政策战略声明》修订版中。 关税政策所带来的物价压力可能引发长期通胀，就业风险也正在上升 一年前，当我在这里发言的时候，美国经济正处在拐点。央行基准利率，即联邦基金利率，已经在一年 多的时间里维持在5.25%至5.5%。当时这一限制性货币政策立场是适当的，不仅抑制了通货膨胀，而且 推进了供求关系再平衡，劳动力市场也从过热状态降温。当时，通胀上行的风险明显减弱，但失业率却 意外上升了近一个百分点。这一现象除了"大衰退"时期之外，还从来没有出现过。为此，2024年下半 年，我们调整了货币政策立场，连续三次降息，为劳动力市场在过去一年保持接近充分就业的均衡奠定 了基础。 今年以来，美国经济面临新挑战。对贸易伙伴国大幅提高关税的政策措施，正在重构全球贸易体系。更 加严格的移民政策导致劳动 ...

从美国近两个月的经济数据特别是就业数据看，市场预计7月会议降息是最佳时点。当时贸易谈判有所 进展，经济面临的不确定性减小，关税对美国通胀影响并不显著，美国就业疲软走弱已经有所显示且已 持续一段时间。从政策前瞻性角度考虑，应该在那个时候降息。 孙长忠(清华大学全球私募股权研究院研究员) 当地时间9月16日至17日，美联储召开FOMC例行会议，决定下调联邦基金利率目标区间25个基点至 4.00%~4.25%，会议声明、经济预测和美联储主席鲍威尔新闻发布会内容表明，今年剩余两次会议可能 再各降25基点。对此可从三重视角观察本次降息。本次降息有何不同？ 历史总有相似但不会重复。去年美联储也是9月开始降息，一次降息50基点，这次则是25基点。从历史 上看一次降息25基点是常态，只有衰退等异常情况下才一次降息50基点或以上。对比去年，本次降息背 景有以下不同： 其一，这是在更接近中性利率情况下的降息。中性利率是指既不刺激经济也不限制增长的利率水平，它 是无法事先观察到或精确计算出来的，只能事后经历了才发现，事先只能大概推算。去年9月美联储降 息前利率超过5%，为20年来最高，限制性是很明显的，加之去年夏天美国就业也是呈明 ...

Recent Key Events - On August 2, 2025, Federal Reserve Governor Kuger announced his resignation, providing Trump an opportunity to appoint a favored candidate within the Federal Reserve [1] - On August 8, 2025, Trump nominated Stephen Milan for the Federal Reserve Governor position, with a Senate committee vote expected this week and a full Senate vote potentially next Monday, allowing Milan to attend the FOMC meeting on September 18 [1] - On August 22, 2025, Powell delivered a speech at the Jackson Hole annual meeting, signaling a clear dovish stance by shifting the policy focus from "controlling inflation" to "preventing employment risks," interpreted by the market as a precursor to a rate cut in September [1] - On August 23, 2025, the Federal Reserve released the results of its long-term monetary policy framework review, stating it would abandon the average inflation targeting and adopt a "balanced approach" when employment and inflation conflict, acknowledging that employment can exceed maximum levels without posing risks [1] - On August 26, 2025, Trump ordered the dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Cook, who has since filed a lawsuit; on September 10, a U.S. judge temporarily blocked Trump's attempt to fire Cook, issuing an injunction allowing Cook to continue in his role during the lawsuit [1] Future Important Milestones - On September 18, 2025, the Federal Reserve will hold a policy meeting and release new economic forecasts, with the market widely expecting a resumption of the rate cut cycle, particularly following recent weak employment data that has increased expectations for a 50 basis point cut [3] - On October 30, 2025, the Federal Reserve will hold another policy meeting, which will be crucial in determining whether to pause or continue rate cuts, especially if a 50 basis point cut occurs in September [3] - On December 11, 2025, the Federal Reserve will conduct its final policy meeting of the year, which may be pivotal for a potential third (or second) rate cut and will influence market expectations for 2026 policies [3] - In May 2026, the term of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will end, with the option for him to continue as a Federal Reserve Governor until January 31, 2028, if he chooses to remain [3] - In November 2026, the U.S. will hold midterm elections, where a significant Republican victory could challenge the independence of the Federal Reserve, potentially leading Congress to push legislation to undermine its autonomy at the White House's request [3]

Group 1 - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech at the global central bank annual meeting signaled a dovish stance, leading to a significant rise in U.S. stock indices, with the Nasdaq increasing over 2% [3] - Powell emphasized that while the job market is close to full employment, both supply and demand are slowing, indicating potential downside risks [3] - The Fed has quietly changed its framework by removing the "average inflation targeting" and is no longer focused on the "maximum employment gap," prioritizing inflation stabilization at 2% [4] Group 2 - The current market trend is dominated by technology, with strong participation from core funds, suggesting that this momentum is unlikely to end soon [7] - A-shares have seen significant trading activity, with transaction volumes exceeding 30 trillion, indicating a robust market environment [7]

Group 1 - The recent speech by Powell at the global central bank annual meeting signaled a dovish stance, coinciding with the A-share market reaching a ten-year high and entering a bull market [1][3] - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting in mid to late September is a critical point for global market direction, making it a significant topic of discussion [1] - Powell emphasized that while the job market is close to full employment, both supply and demand are slowing, indicating potential downside risks [3][4] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve has made a notable change in its framework by removing the "average inflation targeting" and no longer focusing on the "maximum employment gap," which suggests a shift towards prioritizing inflation stability at 2% [4] - This change implies that the pace of interest rate cuts may not be as rapid as the market anticipates, with projections for 2025 potentially reducing the number of rate cuts from four to two [4] - The current market trend is heavily influenced by the technology sector, which is expected to continue its momentum, as evidenced by the strong performance of indices like the Shanghai Composite and the ChiNext [6]

Group 1: Economic Indicators - The latest US Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.7% year-on-year in July, indicating persistent inflationary pressure[4] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) surged by 0.9% month-on-month, reaching a three-year high with a year-on-year increase of 3.3%[4] - Non-farm payrolls added only 73,000 jobs in July, significantly below expectations, with an average of 35,000 jobs added over the past three months, down from 168,000 per month in 2024[4][5] Group 2: Powell's Key Points - Powell acknowledged the significant slowdown in the labor market, emphasizing that the downward pressure on employment could lead to increased layoffs and rising unemployment rates[5] - He highlighted that tariffs have pushed up prices for certain goods, with the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rising by 2.9% year-on-year as of July 2025[6] - Powell indicated that the balance of risks is shifting, suggesting that the Fed may prioritize supporting the labor market over solely focusing on inflation control[10] Group 3: Market Reactions - The bond market showed limited movement despite Powell's potential rate cut signals, possibly due to government intervention using tariff revenues to stabilize bond prices[11] - In contrast, the stock market reacted positively, with major indices rising significantly, particularly technology and growth stocks, reflecting investor optimism about liquidity support from the Fed[12] - The divergence in market reactions highlights differing expectations regarding future economic scenarios, with bond investors concerned about long-term inflation risks while stock investors focus on short-term liquidity improvements[16] Group 4: Implications for China - China should maintain ample macro policy space to respond to external shocks, given the rising uncertainty in US economic policies and global financial conditions[19] - Emphasis on expanding domestic demand is crucial for reducing reliance on external markets, which includes income distribution reforms and increased investment in new infrastructure and technology[20] - Strengthening Hong Kong's position as an international financial center can attract global capital and support technology financing, enhancing China's economic resilience[21]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles revolves around the Federal Reserve's recent policy adjustments in response to rising unemployment risks and inflation concerns, indicating a potential shift towards interest rate cuts to support economic growth [1][2][3] - The Federal Reserve has abandoned the average inflation targeting strategy, reaffirming a long-term inflation target of 2%, which reflects a shift in its monetary policy framework [2] - The Fed's previous approach of maintaining ultra-loose monetary policy for an extended period, despite rising inflation, has been criticized for ignoring the complexities of the economic recovery post-pandemic [3] Group 2 - The recent speech by Fed Chairman Powell highlighted the need for a forward-looking monetary policy that considers the lagging effects of economic changes [3] - The Fed's revised statement emphasizes that full employment should be maintained in the context of price stability, moving away from setting numerical employment targets [3] - The unique nature of the current economic cycle, driven by external shocks such as the pandemic, has been acknowledged as a significant factor influencing the Fed's policy decisions [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles revolves around the Federal Reserve's recent policy adjustments and the implications of inflation and employment risks in the U.S. economy [1][2][3] - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole conference highlighted the fragile balance in the labor market and the potential need for interest rate cuts to address rising employment risks and economic slowdown [1] - The recent review of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy framework resulted in the abandonment of the average inflation targeting strategy, reaffirming a long-term inflation target of 2% [2] Group 2 - The articles discuss the historical context of inflation management, noting that the Fed's previous strategies were more proactive in addressing inflation risks, contrasting with the current reactive approach [3] - The impact of external factors, such as the pandemic, on the U.S. economy is emphasized, indicating that the current economic cycle is distinct from previous ones due to its origins in external shocks rather than internal financial factors [3] - Powell's remarks suggest a shift in focus towards maintaining maximum employment in a context of price stability, indicating a nuanced understanding of the complexities of the labor market and inflation dynamics [3]

Group 1 - The article highlights a rebound in manufacturing PMIs for the US, Eurozone, and Japan, indicating a recovery in overseas manufacturing demand [64][61] - The US expanded tariffs on steel and aluminum derivatives, affecting 407 product categories with a 50% tariff, impacting approximately $138 billion in imports [42][48] - The Federal Reserve's Chairman Powell signaled a dovish stance during the Jackson Hole meeting, suggesting potential adjustments to policy due to employment risks [57][59] Group 2 - Major developed market indices saw increases, with the S&P 500 up 0.3% and the FTSE 100 up 2.0% [2][3] - The energy, real estate, and financial sectors in the US experienced gains of 2.8%, 2.4%, and 2.1% respectively, while information technology and communication services declined [6][11] - Emerging market indices also showed positive performance, with the Istanbul 30 index rising by 3.9% [3][11] Group 3 - The US 10-year Treasury yield decreased by 7.0 basis points to 4.3%, while emerging market yields generally increased, with Turkey's rising by 208.0 basis points to 31.3% [16][18] - The dollar index fell by 0.1% to 97.72, while the offshore RMB appreciated to 7.1712 [21][28] - Commodity prices mostly declined, with WTI crude oil rising by 1.4% to $63.7 per barrel, while coking coal dropped by 5.5% to 1162 yuan per ton [32][37] Group 4 - Japan's core CPI for July exceeded expectations at 3.1%, which may prompt the Bank of Japan to consider interest rate hikes [61] - The article notes that the US fiscal deficit for 2025 reached $1.1 trillion, with total expenditures of $5.19 trillion [48]