1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) is 2, indicating a strong bullish view. The range of trend strength is an integer within the [-2, 2] interval, with -2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [10]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Yesterday, the Container Shipping Index (European Line) fluctuated at a high level, with the secondary main contract 2604 leading the gains. The valuation of the 2602 contract depends on the freight rate level, inflection point time, and price decline rate, with its short - term valuation center likely to rise to the 1900 - 2100 point range. The 2604 contract is in the traditional off - season for the European line, and after the current round of price convergence, it may offer a suitable short - selling risk - reward ratio. For the 2610 contract, short - term attention should be paid to capital games, and a medium - to - long - term strategy of short - selling on rallies is maintained [7][8][9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: The EC2602 contract closed at 1,855.5, up 1.48%, with a trading volume of 22,903 and an open interest of 26,046, an increase of 1,916 in open interest, and a trading volume to open - interest ratio of 0.88. The EC2604 contract closed at 1,198.0, up 2.64%, with a trading volume of 8,562 and an open interest of 22,629, an increase of 1,710 in open interest, and a trading volume to open - interest ratio of 0.38 [1]. - **Freight Rate Index**: The SCFIS European route index was 1,795.83 points, up 3.1% week - on - week; the SCFIS US West route index was 1,250.12 points, down 3.9% week - on - week. The SCFI European route index was $1,690/TEU, up 10.2% bi - weekly; the SCFI US West route index was $2,188/FEU, up 9.8% bi - weekly [1]. - **Spot Freight Rates**: Different carriers have different spot freight rates for the Shanghai - Rotterdam route, with prices ranging from $1,533 - $3,510 for a 40 - foot container and $1,625 - $2,255 for a 20 - foot container [1]. - **Exchange Rates**: The US dollar index was 98.46, and the US dollar against the offshore RMB was 6.97 [1]. 3.2 Capacity - In January, the absolute value of capacity was about 314,000 TEU/week, with the market capacity from week 1 to week 5 ranging between 308,000 - 323,000 TEU. The OA Alliance's capacity peak occurred in week 4 (144,200 TEU), the PA Alliance's in week 3 (57,700 TEU), and the Gemini Alliance and MSK had relatively stable capacity deployments. In February, the shipping schedule currently includes 6 blank sailings and 4 undetermined sailings, with an average weekly capacity of 287,000 TEU/week (excluding the capacity of 4 undetermined sailings). The first half of February operates at full capacity, increasing the pressure on shipping companies to build a rolling pool before the Spring Festival, and blank sailings are mainly concentrated in the second half of January [7]. 3.3 Contract Valuation - **2602 Contract**: The valuation depends on the freight rate level, inflection point time, and price decline rate. In the fourth week of January, freight rates showed signs of peaking, with the FAK average around $2,900/FEU, equivalent to an SCFIS index of about 2080 - 2150 points. The inflection point is likely to occur in week 5 or week 6, and the initial decline after the freight rate peaks may not be large. The short - term valuation center is expected to rise to the 1900 - 2100 point range [8]. - **2604 Contract**: April is the traditional off - season for the European line. With the supply - demand situation loosening further and the freight rate center moving down, the valuation of 2604 may be lower than that of 2510. However, considering the rising valuation center of the near - month 02 contract and the absence of a spot inflection point, short - term price convergence may be the core driver. After this round of price convergence, it may offer a suitable short - selling risk - reward ratio [9]. - **2610 Contract**: Due to Iran's continuous promotion of ballistic missile reconstruction and Israel's clear strike signal, the risk of regional escalation has increased. The fragmentation within the anti - Houthi coalition has intensified, and the risk of local conflicts in Yemen has continued to rise. The market's expectation of route resumption has declined, and the market has rebounded in the past two days driven by short - covering. Short - term attention should be paid to capital games, and a medium - to - long - term strategy of short - selling on rallies is maintained [9]. 3.4 Macro News - The US, Israel, and Syria issued a joint statement on the Paris talks, and Israel said the security talks with Syria were "progressing positively", reaching an agreement on communication, intelligence sharing, and business cooperation mechanisms. There were conflicts between the Iranian police and protesters in the Tehran Grand Bazaar, and Iran warned that it might launch a preemptive strike against its enemies. The US proposed to establish a tripartite command center in Amman, Jordan, to address the security situation in southern Syria. The Syrian Civil Aviation and Air Transport General Administration suspended flights to and from Aleppo Airport for 24 hours and redirected them to Damascus due to an attack by the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) [5][6].