以下为金十期货APP独家整理的多家期货公司研报观点，仅供参考铁矿石 交易逻辑："反内卷"政策对市场情绪和价格形成支撑；传闻西芒杜铁矿石项目要求配套建设冶炼厂，叠 加全球发运量环比回落，供应端出现阶段性收紧；港口库存绝对值仍处于去库后的相对低位；钢厂有较 强的复产预期，且国庆节前存在补库需求 风险因素：终端钢材现实需求弱于预期；钢厂利润持续压缩，可能制约铁水产量的进一步回升空间；钢 材库存持续累积，若旺季需求证伪，将形成负反馈；西芒杜项目的长期供应增量预期依然是市场潜在的 利空压力 关注事件：钢厂高炉开工率及铁水日均产量；钢材的表观消费量和库存变化；全球铁矿石发运量和到港 量；中国国内的房地产政策及经济数据等焦煤 关注事件："反内卷"政策的后续落实情况；周度煤矿开工率、原煤库存及焦化厂、钢厂焦煤库存数据； 每日甘其毛都口岸通关车数等碳酸锂 交易逻辑：碳酸锂周度产量继续增加，总体供应非常充裕；社会库存总量绝对值处于历史高位；市场对 远期新产能的投放预期依然存在；宁德时代复产进程可能快于此前预期 风险因素：外采锂辉石和锂云母的冶炼均已进入亏损状态；正极材料排产环比、同比均有所增长；下游 企业在低价区间补库意愿增强 ...

投资咨询业务资格: 证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年9月11日 FF HISTED | | | | | 欢迎关注微信公众号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 板块 | 品种 | 主力合约 | 点评 | 操作建议 | | | | IF2509 1142509 IC2509 | | 当前IF、IH、IC与IM的主力合约基差率分别为· 0.29%、-0.06%、-0.99%、-1.10%。进入 | | | 股指 | | A股震荡反弹,科技主线再起 | 9月. 下半年货币政策方向对权益市场影响关键, | | | | | | A股积累较大涨幅后可能进入高位震荡格局,等待 | | | | IM2509 | | 波动率进一步收敛再确认更好入场位置。 | | | | T2512 | | 盘面债市情绪偏弱,10年期国债利率未在1.8%企 稳,T2512也下行突破前低,由于尚未出现明确 | | 金融 | 国债 | TF2512 TS2512 | 资金继续收敛债市情绪仍弱,期债延续下行 | 利多情绪未企稳,不排除债市超跌,10债利率继 | | | | TL2512 | | 续上行。单 ...

Core Insights - In August, international oil prices exhibited a "V" shaped trend, with Brent crude oil prices initially dropping below $70 per barrel due to disappointing U.S. non-farm payroll data, followed by a rebound towards the end of the month, closing at approximately $68 per barrel, reflecting a recovery of about 4.6% from the lows [1] - The volatility in high-sulfur fuel oil prices was primarily driven by geopolitical events, particularly the increased frequency of attacks on energy facilities by Ukraine, which significantly reduced Russian crude processing capacity [2] - The supply of low-sulfur fuel oil remained ample, with stable exports from South Sudan and Kuwait, while domestic production saw a slight decline [3] Price Movements - Brent crude oil prices fell to a low of $65 per barrel, marking a nearly 7% decline from the beginning of the month, before rebounding to $68 per barrel by August 25 [1] - High-sulfur fuel oil prices dropped to a low of 2684 yuan per ton, a decrease of nearly 9%, before recovering to above 2900 yuan per ton, reflecting an increase of about 8% [1] - Low-sulfur fuel oil prices also experienced fluctuations, with the main contract closing at 3526 yuan per ton after a decline of 7% from the monthly high [1] Supply Dynamics - Russian crude processing fell to an average of 5.14 million barrels per day, a decrease of over 400,000 barrels compared to the last week of July, due to attacks on refineries [2] - High-sulfur fuel oil exports from Russia remained stable at approximately 1.99 million tons, with a notable decrease in exports to Saudi Arabia [2] - Domestic low-sulfur fuel oil production was approximately 1.019 million tons in July, reflecting a month-on-month decline of 3.8% [3] Demand Trends - Demand for high-sulfur fuel oil for power generation weakened as summer ended, with Egypt canceling about half of its planned high-sulfur fuel oil orders due to decreasing temperatures and increased natural gas usage [4] - In Singapore, July's bunker fuel consumption increased by 14.8% month-on-month, with high-sulfur fuel oil accounting for 40.7% of the total [4] - The overall market for high-sulfur fuel oil showed signs of improvement due to geopolitical influences, with a rebound in the high-sulfur to crude oil crack spread [4]