许可成功概率(PoLS)框架

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高盛:中国生物医药产品出海授权趋势属结构性 升中国生物制药、翰森制药及基石药业目标价
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-07-10 07:19
Group 1 - Goldman Sachs adjusts target prices for Chinese pharmaceutical stocks, maintaining "Buy" ratings for China Biologic Products (01177) with a target price raised from HKD 3.92 to HKD 6.19, Hansoh Pharmaceutical (03692) from HKD 22.71 to HKD 34.83, and Innovent Biologics with a target price from HKD 74.95 to HKD 96.22, while upgrading the rating for CStone Pharmaceuticals (02616) from "Neutral" to "Buy" with a target price raised from HKD 2.77 to HKD 6.25 [1] - The report highlights a strong performance in the stock prices of Chinese biotech companies, which have risen 78% year-to-date, compared to 41% and 2% for offshore and onshore healthcare stocks respectively, and 18% for the MSCI China Index, indicating a structural shift rather than a temporary rebound [1][2] Group 2 - The potential for upward growth is further supported by product licensing, mergers and acquisitions, and the establishment of new companies, with China accounting for about one-third of the global clinical trial pipeline by mid-2025 and approximately 50% of innovative drug candidates entering human studies in the first half of the year [2] - Chinese companies are leading in new therapies that may define future standard treatments, particularly in areas such as ADCs (antibody-drug conjugates) and BsAb/TCEs, while also emerging as significant players in siRNA and PROTAC fields [2] - The focus on oncology and obesity is expected to grow, with ADC/BsAb representing a key differentiating advantage for China, accounting for one-third of outbound licensing deals, while siRNA and PROTAC pipelines may present future trading opportunities [2] Group 3 - Goldman Sachs introduces a new "Probability of Licensing Success" (PoLS) framework to assess the potential outbound value of Chinese biotech/pharmaceutical pipelines, suggesting that summer presents an opportunity to accumulate high-quality innovative drug stocks [3] - The firm remains optimistic about leading biotech companies such as BeiGene (06160), Innovent Biologics (01801), and Kelun-Biotech (06990), highlighting their significant upside potential by the second half of 2025 [3] - Specific companies like Innovent Biologics, Zai Lab (09688), and Legend Biotech Corporation (LEGN.US) are noted for their promising data releases and sales growth, indicating strong future performance [3]