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转债个券研究系列:崧盛转债,崧盛股份:业绩拐点与产业突破共振
Guolian Minsheng Securities· 2025-12-20 09:31
Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The underlying stock of Songsheng Convertible Bond has a small market capitalization, and its energy storage and harmonic reducer businesses are expected to build new growth curves. The underlying stock is expected to achieve a "Davis Double - click" of valuation and profit. The convertible bond has entered the equity - dominated stage, and its price is expected to fluctuate with the underlying stock, but the impact of the "forced redemption" clause on the premium rate should be considered [2][11]. - The lighting industry is undergoing a transformation from scale expansion to value improvement. The substitution demand and plant lighting are new growth drivers. The energy storage core component business of Songsheng Co., Ltd. is about to enter a period of rapid growth, and the company's forward - looking entry into the harmonic reducer track also holds potential [2][3]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Convertible Bond Basic Information - As of December 10, 2025, the remaining term of Songsheng Convertible Bond is 2.79 years, with a remaining balance of 266 million yuan. It has a credit rating of AA - by Oriental Jincheng International Credit Assessment Co., Ltd. The face value is 100 yuan, and the coupon rates from the first to the sixth year are 0.30%, 0.50%, 1.00%, 1.50%, 2.00%, and 3.00% respectively. The company's redemption price at maturity is 114.00% of the face value (including the last - period interest). The conversion period is from April 10, 2023, to September 27, 2028 [1][10]. - The bond was listed on October 24, 2022. From 2022 - 2023, its conversion value was mostly in the range of 80 - 100 yuan; in the first half of 2024, it was mostly below 70 yuan; it started to rise in Q3 2024, and entered a rapid upward phase after a short - term fluctuation in early April 2025. In 2025, when the conversion value was below 80 yuan, the convertible bond premium rate was generally higher than that in the same conversion - value range in 2023 and 2024. When the conversion value was in the range of 80 - 120 yuan, the valuation level was relatively close to the historical level. The average convertible bond premium rates in the ranges of 120 - 140 yuan, 140 - 160 yuan, and above 160 yuan in 2025 were 18.8%, 11.7%, and 7.5% respectively [2][11]. 2. Domestic Core Supplier of Medium - and High - Power LED Driver Power Products 2.1 Historical Evolution - Songsheng Co., Ltd. was founded on July 8, 2011, and is headquartered in Shenzhen. It is a national high - tech enterprise, focusing on the R & D, production, and sales of medium - and high - power LED driver power products. Its products are certified by over 420 domestic and international standards such as CCC, UL, and TUV, and its marketing network covers the world. It was listed on the Growth Enterprise Market in June 2021, established a technology center in 2013, launched an IPO in 2017, was recognized as a national high - tech enterprise in 2019, and established a subsidiary in Zhongshan in the same year. It started the construction of a smart manufacturing base in Zhongshan in 2020 and has reached strategic cooperation with companies like Osram and Zhongke Sian since 2021 [17]. 2.2 Profitability Recovery in 2025 and Continuous Increase in the Proportion of New Energy Storage Business - Since 2018, the company's operating income has shown a long - term growth trend. From 2018 - 2021, it grew rapidly from 439 million yuan to 1.101 billion yuan, with year - on - year growth rates of 29.37%, 19.15%, and 62.74% respectively. In 2022, it was 744 million yuan, a year - on - year decline of 32.42%. From 2023 to Q1 - 3 2025, it recovered to 763 million yuan, 884 million yuan, and 694 million yuan respectively, with year - on - year growth rates of 2.57%, 15.78%, and 6.48% [18]. - The company's归母 net profit has fluctuated. From 2018 - 2021, it increased from 50 million yuan to 129 million yuan. From 2019 - 2021, the year - on - year growth rates were 67.57%, 18.60%, and 29.77% respectively, with a compound growth rate of 11.71% from 2018 - 2022. However, from 2022 - 2024, it declined from 78 million yuan to - 14 million yuan, with declines of - 39.62%, - 68.92%, and - 157.34% respectively. In Q1 - 3 2025, it achieved a归母 net profit of 7 million yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 62.91% [18]. - The company's revenue mainly comes from LED driver power supplies and energy storage products. LED driver power supplies are the core revenue source, with revenues of 727 million yuan, 758 million yuan, 870 million yuan, and 410 million yuan from 2022 - 2025H1, accounting for over 90% of the revenue structure. Energy storage products have been a new revenue growth point since 2024, with revenues increasing from 7.8538 million yuan to 31.0862 million yuan from 2024 - 2025H1, and the revenue proportion rising from 0.89% to 6.92% [20]. - The company's sales gross profit margin has been relatively stable, always significantly higher than the industry average, ranging from 24.07% - 31.30% from 2018 to Q1 - Q3 2025. The sales net profit margin has shown a significant downward trend, dropping from 11.41% in 2018 to - 3.95% in 2024, and slightly rebounding but still at a low level in Q1 - 3 2025. The sales expense ratio and financial expense ratio have shown a "V" - shaped change, decreasing from 2018 - 2022 and rising from 2022 to Q1 - 3 2025 [25]. 3. Global Lighting Industry is Undergoing New and Old Kinetic Energy Transformation 3.1 Lighting Industry Transformation from Scale Expansion to Value Improvement - The Chinese lighting industry experienced an upward cycle from 2011 - 2021. In 2021, the total export value of Chinese lighting products reached a peak of $65.47 billion, about three times that of 2011. From 2022 - 2024, affected by international political and economic situations, trade frictions, etc., the export of Chinese lighting products declined. In 2024, the total export value was $56.3 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 3.3%. The export value of LED lighting products was $42.3 billion, accounting for 75% of the total export value, a year - on - year decrease of 2.5% [34]. - In the first three quarters of 2025, the total export value of Chinese lighting products was $38 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 7.8%. The export value of LED lighting products was $29.7 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 3.4%, accounting for 78.1% of the total export value, 3.5 percentage points higher than the previous year [34]. - Although the overall foreign - trade scale of the lighting industry has been adjusting for three years after the high - growth in 2021, the downward pace has gradually slowed. LED lighting products have shown strong demand resilience, and the industry is transforming from scale expansion to value improvement. In the first three quarters of 2025, the export volume of LED electric light sources was about 11.8 billion pieces, a year - on - year increase of about 38%, accounting for 91% of the export volume of general lighting electric light sources, 2 percentage points higher than the previous year [35]. 3.2 Continuous Advancement of Market Diversification and Incremental Contribution from Emerging Markets - In 2025, the export value of Chinese lighting products to Europe, Southeast Asia, and Africa increased. In the first three quarters, Europe accounted for 26.3% of China's total global lighting product exports, surpassing North America to become the largest export market. The top ten export destinations from January to September 2025 were the United States, Germany, the United Kingdom, Vietnam, Malaysia, the Netherlands, Thailand, Japan, Singapore, and India, with an export value of about $18.3 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 10%, accounting for about 49% of China's lighting exports [38]. - The United States is still the largest export destination for Chinese lighting products, but the proportion of exports to the United States has been decreasing since the tariff increase. In the first nine months of 2025, the export value of lighting products to the United States was about $7.6 billion, a year - on - year decrease of about 19%, accounting for about 20% of China's total export value, 3 percentage points lower than the previous year. The export value of lighting products to the EU this year was about $7.6 billion, a year - on - year increase of about 1%, accounting for about 20% of China's total lighting product export value, 2 percentage points higher than the previous year [39]. - The proportion of China in the US lamp import value has dropped from nearly 70% to 50%, while the proportion of Southeast Asian and South Asian countries has risen from less than 2% to over 20%. In the first three quarters of 2025, China's imports and exports with Belt and Road Initiative countries were 17.37 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6.2%, accounting for 51.7% of the total import and export value, with the proportion increasing by 1.1 percentage points. Exports to ASEAN, Latin America, Africa, and Central Asia increased by 9.6%, 3.9%, 19.5%, and 16.7% respectively [40]. 3.3 Substitution Demand and Plant Lighting as New Growth Drivers - LED has significant energy - saving effects in outdoor/industrial lighting, with energy consumption up to 70% lower than traditional light sources. The energy utilization rate of LED lamps can reach 90%, while that of incandescent lamps is only about 10%. The shipment volume of LED street lights, LED ceiling lights, and LED floodlights has been steadily increasing, and the replacement demand for the stock is accelerating. In the first half of 2025, the proportion of exported LED light sources exceeded 80%, and the total export volume of various light sources was 4.07 billion pieces, a year - on - year increase of 6.9%, including 800 million traditional light sources and 3.27 billion LED replacement light sources, a year - on - year increase of 5.5% [45][46]. - According to Trendforce, the global LED plant lighting market size was $1.315 billion in 2024, a year - on - year increase of 6.6%, and is expected to reach $1.366 billion in 2025, a year - on - year increase of 3.9%. LED plant growth lights can meet the lighting needs of plant photosynthesis, and are widely used in commercial greenhouses and indoor planting facilities. With the continuous penetration of LED, the demand for the LED plant lighting market is expected to grow rapidly, and the market size is expected to reach $2.056 billion in 2029, with a compound growth rate of 9.4% from 2024 - 2029 [47][48]. 4. Energy Storage Core Component Business is about to Enter a Period of Rapid Growth 4.1 The Energy Storage Market is in the Ascendant - According to the International Energy Agency, in 2024, global energy demand increased by 2.2% year - on - year, with the demand increment from emerging and developing economies accounting for 80%. Global electricity consumption increased by nearly 1,100 TWh in 2024, twice the average annual growth rate of the past decade. Renewable energy became the main force to meet the growth of new electricity demand, with an additional installed capacity of about 700 GW in 2024, and the global clean electricity proportion exceeded 40% for the first time [49]. - TrendForce expects that under the neutral scenario, the global new energy storage installed capacity is expected to reach 82 GW/216 GWh in 2025, a year - on - year increase of 28%/36%, with the growth rate slowing down. The average energy storage duration will increase from 2.5 hours in 2024 to 2.6 hours. From 2020 - 2023, the global new - type energy storage installed capacity increased rapidly from 11.3 GWh to 110 GWh, with an average annual compound growth rate of 113%. From 2024 - 2025, the average annual compound growth rate will slow down to 27%. China, the United States, and Europe account for 86% of the global new energy storage installed capacity [50][53]. - The European commercial and industrial energy storage market is expected to add 3.6 GWh in 2025, a year - on - year increase of over 60%, and 20 GWh in 2029, with an average annual growth rate of 54%. The Asia - Africa - Latin America region is the core area for the growth of household energy storage due to power shortages. The domestic commercial and industrial energy storage market has achieved high - speed growth under policy incentives. The Middle East is a hot spot for renewable energy investment, and Chinese enterprises have deeply participated in the process. In the first half of 2025, Chinese energy storage enterprises signed overseas orders of over 107 GWh, covering key overseas markets such as the Asia - Pacific, Europe, and the Middle East - Africa [54][61][62]. 4.2 Inverter/Converter Products are about to See Volume Growth and Build the Second Growth Curve - Songsheng Co., Ltd. mainly produces photovoltaic + energy storage hybrid inverters for household/household energy storage systems and energy storage converters for commercial and industrial energy storage systems. In the first half of 2025, Chinese energy storage enterprises' overseas order signing exceeded 107 GWh, covering key overseas markets such as the Asia - Pacific, Europe, and the Middle East - Africa. The release of overseas energy storage demand and the introduction of domestic favorable policies will help increase the installation volume of household and commercial and industrial energy storage markets, providing development opportunities for the company's energy storage core component business [62]. 5. Forward - Looking Entry into the Harmonic Reducer Track 5.1 Harmonic Reducers are the Core Transmission Components of Robot Joints - Harmonic reducers are high - precision transmission devices based on the elastic deformation principle of flexible wheels, with advantages such as small size, light weight, large and wide transmission ratio. They are widely used in industrial robots, aerospace, and precision machine tools. In 2024, the global harmonic reducer market sales reached $467 million, and it is expected to reach $2.047 billion in 2031, with a compound annual growth rate of 24.9% from 2025 - 2031. In 2024, the consumption of harmonic reducers for Chinese industrial robots reached 796,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 18.98%, and it is expected to reach 958,000 units in 2025 [69][72]. - The global harmonic reducer market shows a pattern of "one dominant and many strong". In 2024, the top four manufacturers' market share reached 74.5%. The global market leader is Harmonic Drive, with a production capacity share of 40.4%. Shinpo and Green Harmonic have a production capacity share of over 10%, at 14.7% and 12.0% respectively, and Laifu Harmonic has a 7.4% share [76]. - The global humanoid robot market is developing rapidly. In 2024, the global humanoid robot market size was about $256.2 million, and it is predicted to reach $633.9 million in 2025 and $6.4222 billion in 2030. The Chinese humanoid robot market showed strong growth momentum, with a market size of about $125.4 million in 2024,
丰光精密(430510) - 投资者关系活动记录表
2025-06-19 08:20
Group 1: Investor Relations Activity Overview - The investor relations activity was a specific object survey held on June 17, 2025, at the company's conference room in Qingdao [3] - Attendees included representatives from various investment firms such as Shanghai Xishirun Investment Management Co., West Securities, and others [3] - Company representatives included Chairman and General Manager Li Jun and Board Secretary Lü Dongmei [3] Group 2: Semiconductor Sector Insights - The company produces key components for the semiconductor sector, including motor shafts and precision parts for vacuum pumps, achieving international production standards [5] - The new factory (Shanghe Factory) has established a constant temperature and humidity workshop to support precision product manufacturing [5] - The company aims to continue expanding into new products and markets through technological innovation [5] Group 3: Humanoid Robot Product Layout - The main product in the humanoid robot sector is the harmonic reducer, which is a technology-intensive component with a growing market [6] - The harmonic reducer market in China was approximately ¥2.1 billion in 2022, with projections to exceed ¥3.3 billion by 2025 [6] - The company plans to achieve a production capacity of 300,000 units by the end of 2024, with a target of 100,000 units for this year [6] Group 4: Technical Advantages of Harmonic Reducers - The company employs Japanese processing technology and standards in key production processes, ensuring high-quality products [7] - The focus is on continuous improvement and meeting customer needs through high-quality manufacturing [7] Group 5: Mergers and Acquisitions Strategy - The company is monitoring market trends and may pursue investments, mergers, or partnerships to enhance its industry position [8] - Future developments will be disclosed in accordance with regulations [8] Group 6: Order Directions for Harmonic Reducers - Harmonic reducers are utilized across various sectors, including industrial robots, medical devices, and aerospace, indicating a strong market outlook [9] - The company has secured orders in humanoid robots, industrial robots, and exoskeleton robots [9] Group 7: Customer and Business Development Strategy - The company adheres to the "Three New" philosophy: new products, new customers, and new markets to enhance competitiveness [10] - Plans include accelerating new product development and expanding market reach, with subsidiaries established in the U.S. and Japan [10]