Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean meal market maintains a pattern of loose supply and demand, with limited upside potential for price rebounds. In the short term, the M2509 contract is expected to fluctuate within the range of [2900, 3000], while in the medium to long term, the price is expected to strengthen. Enterprises can take corresponding trading strategies based on price trends [3][6]. - The vegetable oil market is under pressure from the expectation of improved supply, with futures prices oscillating weakly. In the short term, the overall trend is expected to be volatile, while in the medium to long term, the market may shift from a volatile phase to a weakly oscillating one, and there is a possibility of a price rebound in the third quarter [3][90]. Summary by Directory 1. Soybean Meal 1.1 Market Review - As of May 30, the spot price in East China was 2,830 yuan/ton, down 470 yuan/ton from the previous month. The M2509 contract closed at 2,968 yuan/ton, up 48 yuan/ton from the previous month. The basis was 09 - 150 yuan/ton, down 520 yuan/ton from the previous month. After the May Day holiday, the increase in soybean arrivals and the rise in oil mill operating rates led to a decline in the spot price of soybean meal, while the futures price was relatively strong, showing a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength [6][8]. 1.2 Supply - The USDA May report lowered the ending stocks of US soybeans for the 2025/26 season by 295 million bushels, providing strong support for the price. However, favorable weather in the US soybean - growing regions and smooth sowing have limited the upside potential. Brazilian soybean production has increased, with prices running weakly but supported by high demand and planting costs. In China, the arrival of soybeans from May to July will increase, leading to a loose supply - demand situation. In the long term, Sino - US trade frictions may increase import costs and reduce supply, and the domestic soybean inventory will start to decline after September [6]. 1.3 Demand - In 2025, the pig inventory is expected to increase by 4%. Considering the high cost - effectiveness of soybean meal and the advantage of the pig - grain price ratio, the demand for soybean meal in feed is expected to increase by more than 4% year - on - year [6]. 1.4 Cost - The planting cost of US soybeans in the 24/25 season is 1,030 cents/bushel, and the cost of new Brazilian soybeans is 915 cents/bushel. The calculated cost of domestic soybean meal from May to July is 2,850 yuan/ton, and from August to September it is 2,970 yuan/ton. The overall import crushing profit is between 0 yuan/ton and 50 yuan/ton, at a high level in the same period of history [6]. 1.5 Market Outlook and Strategy - In the short term, the M2509 contract is expected to run strongly within the range of [2900, 3000]. Enterprises can conduct basis point pricing on dips and sell on rallies. In the medium to long term, it is advisable to build long positions at the lower end of the range [6]. 2. Vegetable Oil 2.1 Market Review - As of May 30, the main contract of palm oil (09) decreased by 88 yuan/ton to 8,060 yuan/ton, the main contract of soybean oil (09) decreased by 194 yuan/ton to 7,638 yuan/ton, and the main contract of rapeseed oil (09) increased by 51 yuan/ton to 9,348 yuan/ton. The spot prices of corresponding oils also showed different degrees of change [90][92]. 2.2 Palm Oil - In May, the export data of Malaysian palm oil improved in the second half of the month, while the production growth rate continued to slow down. It is expected that the inventory in Malaysia will increase to 2 million tons in May, with a slower accumulation rate compared to April. In Indonesia, the inventory continued to decline in March. In China, the arrival of palm oil from May to June is expected to exceed 200,000 tons each month, and the inventory is expected to recover in the future [90]. 2.3 Soybean Oil - In May, the US biodiesel policy had a significant impact on the market. The current fundamentals of US soybeans are mixed. In China, the arrival of soybeans from May to July is expected to average about 10 million tons per month, and the soybean oil inventory has stopped falling and started to rise, with a strong expectation of further inventory accumulation [90]. 2.4 Rapeseed Oil - The demand for Canadian rapeseed crushing and export in the 24/25 season remains strong, and the old - crop inventory continues to decline. The new - crop sowing in Canada is in the later stage, with no obvious weather - related risks for now. In China, the inventory of rapeseed oil is at a historically high level, but the purchase of Canadian rapeseed is expected to decrease significantly after June, and the inventory may start to decline in the third quarter [90]. 2.5 Market Outlook and Strategy - In the short term, the main contracts of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil (09) are expected to oscillate within the ranges of 7,500 - 8,000, 7,800 - 8,200, and 9,200 - 9,500 respectively. In terms of arbitrage, the strategy of widening the spreads of soybean - palm oil, rapeseed - palm oil, and rapeseed - soybean oil (09) contracts can be monitored in the long term [90].