Strategy（原MSTR）原计划通过优先股募资购买比特币，但近期仅筹集了4700万美元，远低于预期。为弥补不足，公司重启了普通股发行计划，违背 了此前限制稀释的承诺。这一战略反转不仅打击了投资者信心，也对整个比特币财库模式构成威胁。分析人士指出，当Strategy选择在mNAV低位继续 增发股份时，可能触发"负向飞轮"：股价下跌削弱购币能力，进一步侵蚀市场信心，导致溢价加速压缩。 Strategy的商业逻辑一度被视为华尔街的创新案例：通过发行债券和股票融资购入比特币，再依赖市场给予的溢价不断滚动扩张。 这一模式在2020年开启后，迅速点燃了企业财务配置数字资产的潮流。截至目前，全球已有逾百家公司效仿，合计持有约1080亿美元的比特币，占流 通总量的4.7%。 而如今，这套模式正在遭遇逆风。 作为"比特币财库公司"模式的开创者，Strategy（原MicroStrategy，MSTR）正在经历一次前所未有的市场考验。 8月份， Strategy股价累计下跌16.8%， 抹去了公司长期相较于其比特币持仓所享有的大部分溢价。 市场的担忧主要来自Strategy融资策略的突然转变。公司原计划通过优先股募资购买比特 ...

Core Viewpoint - Strategy, the pioneer of the "Bitcoin treasury company" model, is facing unprecedented market challenges, with its stock price dropping 16.8% since August, erasing much of the premium it previously enjoyed relative to its Bitcoin holdings [1][4]. Group 1: Market Concerns - The primary concern stems from Strategy's sudden shift in financing strategy, where it raised only $47 million through preferred stock, significantly below expectations, leading to a restart of its common stock issuance plan [4][5]. - This strategic reversal has not only undermined investor confidence but also poses a threat to the entire Bitcoin treasury model, with companies emulating Strategy holding over $108 billion in Bitcoin, accounting for 4.7% of the total supply [4][5]. Group 2: Breakdown of the Treasury Model - The treasury model was once viewed as an innovative case on Wall Street, where companies issued bonds and stocks to acquire Bitcoin, relying on market premiums for continuous expansion [5]. - As of now, over a hundred companies have adopted this model, collectively holding approximately $108 billion in Bitcoin, which represents 4.7% of the circulating supply [5][6]. - However, this model is now facing headwinds, as Strategy's commitment to not issue stock below a Bitcoin holdings multiple (mNAV) of 2.5 has been relaxed, leading to the issuance of nearly 900,000 new shares [5][6]. Group 3: Investor Confidence and Market Dynamics - The breach of commitment has triggered a crisis of trust among investors, further depressing the premium, with Strategy's stock price now tethered to its mNAV rather than its software business [6]. - The mNAV has dropped to 1.57, indicating a loss of confidence in the treasury model, despite Bitcoin's strong market performance [6]. - Analysts suggest that issuing shares at low mNAV levels could initiate a "negative flywheel," where declining stock prices weaken purchasing power, eroding market confidence and accelerating premium compression [6]. Group 4: Broader Industry Challenges - Not only Strategy but also other Bitcoin treasury companies are under pressure, with nearly one-third of publicly traded companies holding Bitcoin seeing their stock prices fall below the value of their reserves [7]. - Smaller companies are particularly vulnerable due to liquidity constraints and reliance on convertible bonds, which introduce interest burdens and maturity risks [7]. - The rise of spot Bitcoin ETFs presents another challenge, as these funds offer Bitcoin exposure without the governance, leverage, or dilution risks associated with treasury companies, diminishing the relative advantages of the latter [7].