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转债周度专题:临期转债“百态”-20250824
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-08-24 07:42
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The A-share market is currently experiencing a valuation recovery. Measures such as large-scale equipment upgrades and consumer goods trade-ins are expected to boost domestic demand, while export growth may decline. A weak resonance between the domestic economic fundamentals and capital flows is expected to gradually emerge [30]. - Considering the impact of refinancing policies, the subsequent issuance pressure of convertible bonds is not expected to be high. As the stock market recovers, the inflow of incremental funds into convertible bonds has driven the valuation to a relatively high level in history. Attention should be paid to the risk of valuation correction. In terms of terms and conditions, it is recommended to continue to focus on the space for lower revision games, be vigilant against the risk of early redemption, and appropriately pay attention to short-term game opportunities for near-maturity convertible bonds [31]. - Industries worthy of attention include popular themes such as AI computing power, humanoid robots, intelligent driving, low-altitude economy, data elements, and satellite Internet of Things; repair opportunities in low-position science and technology growth sectors such as semiconductors and innovative drugs; pro-cyclical and domestic demand sectors such as real estate, chemicals, and consumer electronics whose prosperity is gradually recovering; industries with both export advantages and domestic demand growth potential such as automobiles, home appliances, and engineering machinery; central state-owned enterprises represented by "China-headquartered" companies, the "Belt and Road" theme, and high-dividend sectors such as public utilities, petrochemicals, and precious metals under the Chinese characteristic valuation system; and the military industry driven by the resonance of hedging demand and industrial demand cycles [31]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Convertible Bond Weekly Special and Outlook 3.1.1. The "Diverse States" of Near-Maturity Convertible Bonds - As of August 22, 2025, 82 convertible bonds have been delisted this year, including 20 that have reached maturity. Among the matured and delisted convertible bonds, 6 have an actual maturity payment ratio of less than 1%, 3 have a payment ratio of over 90% (Nuclear Construction Convertible Bond, Haoke Convertible Bond, and Intelligent Convertible Bond), and the rest have a maturity payment ratio concentrated between 20% - 60% [10]. - The paths of promoting conversion and maturity payment of convertible bonds that have reached maturity this year vary. For example, the issuance amount of CITIC Convertible Bond is 40 billion yuan, but the final payment ratio is less than 1%. Its methods of promoting conversion are diverse, including the controlling shareholder's premium conversion and conversion during periods of negative premium rate due to the positive stock's "abnormal movement." Since December 2024, with the continuous rise of bank stocks, the conversion value of CITIC Convertible Bond has been significantly higher than the maturity value, accelerating the conversion process [13][14]. - In contrast, the Nuclear Construction Convertible Bond, a large central enterprise convertible bond, has a maturity payment ratio as high as 99.27%. The company's main business has a stable profit margin, and it has a relatively weak willingness to promote conversion, resulting in a smooth maturity payment [19]. - Most private enterprise convertible bonds (11 out of 18) have proposed to lower the conversion price during their tenure. However, due to factors such as weak performance and poor stock price performance of the underlying stocks, large-scale conversion has not been achieved. For example, Dafeng Convertible Bond achieved a large-scale conversion through a high negative premium rate before maturity, alleviating the payment pressure to some extent [21]. - As of August 22, there are still 14 convertible bonds approaching maturity this year. Some companies have a strong willingness to promote conversion, such as Jinneng Convertible Bond, which recently lowered its conversion price. It is recommended to analyze the company's willingness to promote conversion based on factors such as company attributes, debt repayment pressure, and research and communication, and pay attention to negative premium rate conversion and lower revision games during the conversion promotion process [28]. 3.1.2. Weekly Review and Market Outlook - This week, the A-share market showed an overall upward trend with active trading, and technology sectors led the market. The Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index all rose to varying degrees, with the ChiNext Index performing particularly well. Sectors such as communication, comprehensive, and computer led the gains, while real estate and petrochemical sectors declined slightly [29]. - In the convertible bond market, considering the impact of refinancing policies, the subsequent issuance pressure is not expected to be high. As the stock market recovers, the inflow of incremental funds has driven the valuation to a relatively high level in history. Attention should be paid to the risk of valuation correction. It is recommended to continue to focus on the space for lower revision games, be vigilant against the risk of early redemption, and appropriately pay attention to short-term game opportunities for near-maturity convertible bonds [31]. 3.2. Weekly Tracking of the Convertible Bond Market 3.2.1. The Equity Market Rose, with Communication, Electronics, and Comprehensive Sectors Leading - This week, major equity market indices rose. The Wind All A Index rose 3.87%, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 3.49%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 4.57%, and the ChiNext Index rose 5.85%. The market style was more inclined towards large-cap growth stocks. Among small-cap indices, the CSI 1000 Index rose 3.45%, and the STAR 50 Index rose 13.31% [35]. - All 31 Shenwan industry indices rose this week, with communication, electronics, and comprehensive sectors leading the market with increases of 10.84%, 8.95%, and 8.25% respectively [38]. 3.2.2. The Convertible Bond Market Rose Significantly, and the Median of the 100-yuan Premium Rate Increased - This week, the convertible bond market rose. The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 2.83%, the Shanghai Convertible Bond Index rose 2.77%, the Shenzhen Convertible Bond Index rose 2.96%, the Wind Convertible Bond Equal-Weighted Index rose 3.20%, and the Wind Convertible Bond Weighted Index rose 2.86%. The average daily trading volume of convertible bonds increased, with an average daily trading volume of 94.06 billion yuan, an increase of 0.975 billion yuan compared to last week, and a total weekly trading volume of 470.3 billion yuan [40]. - At the industry level of convertible bonds, 29 industries rose, with the social services, beauty care, and computer industries ranking among the top three in terms of gains, with increases of 9.16%, 7.01%, and 5.28% respectively. At the corresponding underlying stock level, 26 industries rose, and 3 industries fell. The computer, electronics, and food and beverage industries led the gains, with increases of 10.14%, 8.92%, and 7.29% respectively [43]. - Most individual convertible bonds rose this week (414 out of 450). After excluding the closing data of newly listed convertible bonds, the top five convertible bonds in terms of weekly gains were Dongshi Convertible Bond (social services, 90.12%), Jintong Convertible Bond (non-ferrous metals, 22.92%), Huayi Convertible Bond (pharmaceutical biology, 19.84%), Weice Convertible Bond (electronics, 18.48%), and Dongjie Convertible Bond (machinery and equipment, 17.05%). The top five in terms of weekly trading volume were Outong Convertible Bond (power equipment, 23.791 billion yuan), Dayuan Convertible Bond (machinery and equipment, 23.686 billion yuan), Saili Convertible Bond (pharmaceutical biology, 12.55 billion yuan), Dongjie Convertible Bond (machinery and equipment, 12.492 billion yuan), and Huahong Convertible Bond (environmental protection, 11.35 billion yuan) [45]. - In terms of price, the number of absolute low-price convertible bonds decreased, and the median price of convertible bonds increased significantly. The number of convertible bonds with an absolute price of less than 110 yuan decreased by 3 compared to last week, the number in the 110 - 130 yuan range decreased by 40, the number in the 130 - 150 yuan range increased by 17, the number in the 150 - 200 yuan range increased by 14, and the number of those with a price greater than 200 yuan increased by 6. As of this Friday, the median price of the entire market's convertible bonds closed at 135.19 yuan, an increase of 3.03 yuan compared to last weekend [47]. - This week, the weighted conversion value of the entire market increased, and the premium rate decreased. The weighted average conversion value of the entire market based on the remaining bond balance was 102.18 yuan, an increase of 3.03 yuan compared to last weekend. The weighted conversion premium rate of the entire market was 40.64%, a decrease of 1.05 percentage points compared to last weekend. The 100-yuan parity premium rate (weighted average) was 29.42%, an increase of 4.92 percentage points compared to last weekend, and the median was 33.05%, an increase of 2.50 percentage points compared to last weekend. Currently, the 100-yuan parity premium rate is above the 50th percentile since 2017. The median implied volatility of the entire market was 41.78%, an increase of 3.91 percentage points compared to last weekend, and the pure bond premium rate of debt-biased convertible bonds was 14.50%, an increase of 3.55 percentage points compared to last weekend [51]. 3.2.3. High-Frequency Tracking of Different Types of Convertible Bonds 3.2.3.1. Classification Valuation Changes - This week, the valuation of balanced convertible bonds slightly declined, while that of equity-biased convertible bonds increased significantly. The valuation of convertible bonds with a parity of 110 - 120 yuan decreased, while the valuation of other parity convertible bonds increased, with those in the 0 - 80 yuan and 100 - 110 yuan ranges increasing more significantly. The valuation of AAA, A+, and A and below convertible bonds increased, while that of AA+, AA, and AA- convertible bonds decreased. The valuation of small-cap and small - medium-cap convertible bonds increased, while that of medium-cap and large-cap convertible bonds decreased [59]. - Since the beginning of 2024, the conversion premium rates of equity-biased and balanced convertible bonds have both rebounded from their lows. As of this Friday, the conversion premium rate of equity-biased convertible bonds is above the 35th percentile since 2017, and that of balanced convertible bonds is below the 50th percentile since 2017 [59]. 3.2.3.2. Market Index Performance - This week, all convertible bonds of different ratings rose. AAA convertible bonds rose 1.77%, AA+ convertible bonds rose 3.57%, AA convertible bonds rose 3.67%, AA- convertible bonds rose 2.69%, A+ convertible bonds rose 3.67%, and A and below convertible bonds rose 2.55%. Since 2023, AAA convertible bonds have recorded a 22.35% return, AA+ convertible bonds 15.24%, AA convertible bonds 21.33%, AA- convertible bonds 29.60%, A+ convertible bonds 32.92%, and A and below convertible bonds 34.83%. Historically, high-rated AAA convertible bonds have shown stable performance, while low-rated convertible bonds have shown weaker downside resistance and greater rebound strength [74]. - This week, all convertible bonds of different scales rose. Small-cap convertible bonds rose 2.84%, small - medium-cap convertible bonds rose 2.66%, medium-cap convertible bonds rose 3.86%, and large-cap convertible bonds rose 2.29%. Since 2023, small-cap convertible bonds have recorded a 34.82% return, small - medium-cap convertible bonds 29.29%, medium-cap convertible bonds 26.30%, and large-cap convertible bonds 19.79% [74]. 3.3. Tracking of Convertible Bond Supply and Terms 3.3.1. This Week's Primary Market Issuance Plans - This week, there were no newly listed convertible bonds, and there were 3 convertible bonds that had been issued but not yet listed. Among the convertible bonds to be listed, Weidao Convertible Bond and Jinwei Convertible Bond both have a scale of over 1 billion yuan. This week, there were 12 primary approvals (from August 18 to August 23, 2025), with no convertible bonds approved for registration by the CSRC. Three convertible bonds, including Dingjie Shuzhi (828 million yuan), Lianrui Xincai (720 million yuan), and Jinpan Technology (1.672 billion yuan), were accepted by the exchange [80]. - From the beginning of 2023 to August 22, 2025, the total number of planned convertible bonds was 93, with a total scale of 150.36 billion yuan. Among them, the number of convertible bonds approved by the board of directors was 19, with a total scale of 28.493 billion yuan; the number approved by the general meeting of shareholders was 36, with a total scale of 64.672 billion yuan; the number accepted by the exchange was 30, with a total scale of 41.847 billion yuan; the number approved by the listing committee was 4, with a total scale of 8.979 billion yuan; and the number approved for registration by the CSRC was 4, with a total scale of 6.37 billion yuan [81]. 3.3.2. Lower Revision and Redemption Clauses - This week, 8 convertible bonds announced that they were expected to trigger a lower revision, 4 convertible bonds announced that they would not be revised downward, and Qifan Convertible Bond proposed a lower revision, with no convertible bonds announcing the result of the lower revision [84][87]. - This week, 12 convertible bonds announced that they were expected to trigger early redemption, 7 convertible bonds announced that they would not be redeemed early, and 6 convertible bonds, including Chongda Zhuan 2, Dayuan Convertible Bond, Haitai Convertible Bond, Sheyan Convertible Bond, Dongjie Convertible Bond, and Rongtai Convertible Bond, announced early redemption [86][88][89]. - As of the end of this week, there was 1 convertible bond still in the put option declaration period and 9 convertible bonds still in the company's capital reduction and settlement declaration period. Attention should be paid to the price changes of convertible bonds and the marginal changes in the company's tendency for lower revision [91].