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证券行业报告(2026.01.26-2026.01.30):上市券商业绩呈现“普涨+分化”特征
China Post Securities· 2026-02-02 08:57
Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is Neutral, maintained [1] Core Insights - The report highlights a "general increase with differentiation" in the performance of listed securities firms, with a median year-on-year net profit growth rate exceeding 60% for 26 firms. Leading firms like CITIC Securities and Guotai Junan achieved growth rates of 38.5% and 111%-115% respectively, supported by comprehensive, international, and merger integration advantages. Smaller firms showed even higher growth rates due to low base effects and unique business breakthroughs [4][16] - The report notes that despite strong fundamentals, the securities sector underperformed last week, with the Shenwan Securities II Index declining by 0.68%, lagging behind the CSI 300 Index by 0.77 percentage points. Current valuations remain significantly behind the pace of profit recovery [4][10] - The report emphasizes that the current market liquidity is abundant, with the SHIBOR 3M rate stable at a historical low of 1.59%. The A-share market remains active, with an average daily trading volume of 3.70 trillion yuan, reflecting a 7.63% increase compared to the previous week [5][21] Summary by Sections 1. Performance of Listed Companies - The report indicates that the securities industry experienced widespread high growth in 2025, driven by a favorable capital market environment, core business synergy, and policy resonance. The head firms benefited from scale effects and comprehensive service capabilities, while smaller firms achieved aggressive growth through mergers and unique business focuses [16][17] 2. Industry Fundamentals Tracking 2.1 SHIBOR 3M Rate - The SHIBOR 3M rate was reported at 1.59% as of January 30, 2026, indicating a stable and abundant liquidity environment [5][20] 2.2 Stock Fund Trading Volume - The average daily trading volume of A-share stock funds reached approximately 37,040 billion yuan, reflecting a significant increase of about 7.63% compared to the previous week [21][22] 2.3 Margin Trading Situation - The margin trading balance was reported at 27,393.63 billion yuan, maintaining a historical high level. The balance fluctuated slightly but remained above 27 trillion yuan [24][23] 2.4 Bond Market Index and Trading Volume - The bond market showed a "trading cooling, index rising" pattern, with a daily average trading volume of 30,927.60 billion yuan, reflecting a slight increase of about 3% compared to the previous week [27][28] 2.5 Stock-Bond Spread - The average yield of 10-year government bonds was reported at 1.82%, showing a slight decrease, while the stock-bond spread remained stable at an average of 4.90% [29][30] 3. Market Review - The Shenwan Securities II Index underperformed the CSI 300 Index, ranking 12th among 31 first-level industries. The report notes that the securities sector's performance over the past year was significantly lower than that of the CSI 300 Index [31][33]