中国青年报客户端北京12月13日电（中青报·中青网记者 朱彩云）展望2026年全球经济金融形势，中国 人民银行原副行长、国际货币基金组织原副总裁朱民用"脆弱的增长"来概括。 12月13日，中国人民银行原副行长、国际货币基金组织原副总裁朱民出席2025-2026中国经济年会作主 旨演讲。中青报·中青网记者 朱彩云/摄 他还提到，美国通胀并没有恢复到美联储2%的目标水平，未来美联储降息有很大的通胀风险，这是 2026年全球经济金融发展又一个巨大的不确定性。 在今天上午由中国国际经济交流中心主办的2025-2026中国经济年会上，朱民从六方面分析"脆弱"来 源，即全球经济增长继续放缓、全球贸易格局深刻变局、政府财政不可持续风险上升、金融风险继续集 聚、对美元信任下降、不确定性仍然高企。 "财政风险是一切金融风险的基础，因为财政风险的结果是付息成本会上升。"朱民以美国为例说，美国 政府债务占其GDP比重已超过100%，同时利率水平又比较高，更直观地看，其债务增长速度已超过 GDP增长速度，"这意味着财政不可持续，要借新还旧，财政压力很大。"朱民说，如今，全球特别是美 国以及一些发达国家都处于财政不可持续的危机之中。 ...

Core Points - The U.S. House of Representatives passed the "Big and Beautiful" tax and spending bill, pushed by President Trump, with a vote of 218 in favor and 214 against [1] - The bill focuses on extending tax cuts for corporations and individuals, including exemptions for tips and overtime pay, with a core provision to lower corporate taxes [4] - The Senate version of the bill aims to make tax cuts permanent, while the House version extends them until 2029 [4] Financial Implications - The Congressional Budget Office estimates that the extended tax cuts will cost over $4.5 trillion over the next decade, increasing the U.S. deficit by nearly $3.3 trillion and raising the debt ceiling by $5 trillion [4] - Critics argue that the bill disproportionately benefits the wealthy, with the lowest-income Americans potentially seeing a 2.3% decrease in after-tax income over ten years, while the highest-income earners may see a 2.3% increase [5] Societal Impact - The bill is expected to exacerbate income inequality, with significant cuts to federal assistance and healthcare for low-income individuals, potentially leaving 11.8 million Americans uninsured by 2034 [6] - Public sentiment is increasingly negative regarding the Trump administration's handling of tariffs, inflation, and government spending, with a higher proportion of respondents believing the economy will worsen compared to any time in 2023 [6]