据第一财经报道，《经济学(季刊)》2025年第4期发表复旦大学中国社会主义市场经济研究中心张军、 马欣榕、刘志阔的文章，题目是：《中国财政供养人员规模估算与结构分析》。文章对2004年至2020年 间中国财政供养人员的总体规模，以及结构特征进行了基础性测算和分析认为，供养人员整体规模持续 增长，财政供养人员已从2004年的5212万人增加到2020年的6846万人，财政供养人员占常住人口的比例 已上升到4.85%，但增长趁势放缓；离退休人员占比快速上升，编内人员规模相对稳定，编外人员显著 扩张，主要集中于县区级及以下；尽管人口持续呈现跨地区集聚流动趋势，供养人员配置调整却相对滞 后，导致空间上的结构性错配。 实事求是地讲，文章对当下财政供养人员的现状分析总体还是比较客观的，也是基本符合财政供养人员 实际的。那么，为什么在中央一再要求控制财政供养人员规模、优化财政供养人员结构的情况下，财政 供养人员的数量仍然在增长呢，笔者认为，主要有这样几个方面的原因： 首先，随着中国人口寿命延长，离退休财政供养人员的比重在持续提高。文章提到，2020年，我国财政 供养人员中，近四成并非在职人员，其中，离退休人数已从2004年 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the increasing attention on the scale of government-funded personnel in China, particularly following the government's directive to strictly control this scale in 2025. It highlights a study estimating the number of such personnel and emphasizes the importance of understanding the structural changes within this group rather than just focusing on the total numbers [3]. Group 1: Government Personnel Scale and Structure - A recent study estimates that the total number of government-funded personnel in China reached approximately 68.46 million by 2020, although the growth rate has begun to stabilize [3]. - The composition of government-funded personnel is primarily made up of in-service staff, with a slight decrease in this group due to reforms aimed at optimizing personnel management [3]. - The growth in government-funded personnel since 2004 has largely been driven by an increase in retired personnel and non-staff members, with retired personnel accounting for nearly 40% of the total by 2020 [5]. Group 2: Regional Disparities and Structural Imbalances - There is a notable disparity in the distribution of government-funded personnel across regions, with a higher support ratio in western areas compared to eastern regions, leading to imbalances where some areas face personnel shortages despite high economic output [6]. - The article cites an example of a western county with a population of 30,200 but over 6,000 government-funded personnel, illustrating the "official-to-civilian" ratio issue [6]. Group 3: Policy Recommendations and Future Outlook - To effectively control the scale of government-funded personnel, it is recommended to clarify and optimize the boundaries of government and market responsibilities, streamline administrative levels, and adjust administrative divisions based on regional needs [7]. - The article suggests that the number of government-funded personnel is expected to remain stable in the coming years, with a focus on long-term planning rather than short-term needs in personnel allocation [7]. - Recent initiatives in some regions, such as Hunan Province, aim to reduce government-funded personnel through dynamic monitoring and fiscal constraints, with specific targets for personnel reduction and cost savings [9].

Core Insights - The scale of government-funded personnel in China is on the rise, but the growth rate has stabilized, with an estimated 68.46 million personnel in 2020 [1] - The increase in government-funded personnel is primarily attributed to the rise in retired and non-staff personnel, with retired personnel accounting for nearly 40% by 2020 [2][3] - There is a significant regional disparity in the distribution of government-funded personnel, with a higher supply in western regions and a lower supply in eastern regions, leading to an imbalance in personnel allocation [3] Group 1 - The government work report for 2025 emphasizes the need to "strictly control the scale of government-funded personnel," which has garnered widespread attention [1] - Research indicates that the growth in government-funded personnel since 2004 is mainly due to the increase in retired and non-staff personnel, with the latter doubling from 2004 to 2018 [2] - The majority of government-funded personnel are concentrated in grassroots governments at the city and county levels, with two-thirds of personnel located there [2] Group 2 - The government is implementing measures to optimize the structure of government-funded personnel, including reducing the number of personnel in central and state agencies by 5% [2] - The current policy direction aims to maintain overall stability in the number of government-funded personnel in the coming years, avoiding rapid growth [4] - Local reforms, such as those in Hunan Province, are focusing on reducing personnel and optimizing resource allocation to alleviate the financial burden of government-funded personnel [6]