Core Viewpoint - The increasing competition for stable government jobs in China is highlighted by the significant rise in the number of candidates for the national civil service examination, reflecting a growing demand for job security in the current economic climate [3][25]. Group 1: National Civil Service Examination Trends - The number of candidates for the national civil service examination is projected to increase from 1.576 million in 2021 to 3.718 million by 2026, representing a growth rate of 235.9% [4][26]. - The ratio of candidates passing the qualification review to the number of positions available is approximately 98:1, indicating a highly competitive environment for securing government jobs [3][25]. Group 2: Fiscal Challenges and Employment Policies - The planned recruitment for the national civil service in 2026 will see a decrease of 1,602 positions, marking the first reduction in seven years, attributed to a declining school-age population [4][26]. - Local governments are facing increasing fiscal pressures, leading to strict controls on hiring and even reductions in staff numbers, as highlighted by the central government's focus on addressing local fiscal difficulties [5][27]. Group 3: Research on Fiscal Support Personnel - A recent economic study has gained significant attention, providing a clearer understanding of the scale and structure of fiscal support personnel in China, which has been a topic of limited data since 2009 [9][31]. - The study estimates that the total number of fiscal support personnel reached 68.46 million by 2020, with the fiscal support rate rising from 4.01% in 2004 to 4.85% in 2020 [12][34]. Group 4: Structural Issues in Employment - The internal structure of fiscal support personnel shows a decline in active personnel, while the number of retirees continues to grow, leading to a structural mismatch in employment [13][35]. - The expansion of "non-staff" personnel, which increased from 2.15 million in 2004 to 4.42 million in 2018, adds to the fiscal burden without utilizing official staffing quotas [15][37]. Group 5: Future Considerations and Reforms - The research emphasizes the need for a long-term strategy in managing fiscal support personnel, particularly in aligning their distribution with future societal needs [39][41]. - There is a call for reducing government responsibilities to alleviate the pressure on fiscal support personnel, suggesting that market-based solutions could enhance service provision and economic growth [20][42].

据第一财经报道，《经济学(季刊)》2025年第4期发表复旦大学中国社会主义市场经济研究中心张军、 马欣榕、刘志阔的文章，题目是：《中国财政供养人员规模估算与结构分析》。文章对2004年至2020年 间中国财政供养人员的总体规模，以及结构特征进行了基础性测算和分析认为，供养人员整体规模持续 增长，财政供养人员已从2004年的5212万人增加到2020年的6846万人，财政供养人员占常住人口的比例 已上升到4.85%，但增长趁势放缓；离退休人员占比快速上升，编内人员规模相对稳定，编外人员显著 扩张，主要集中于县区级及以下；尽管人口持续呈现跨地区集聚流动趋势，供养人员配置调整却相对滞 后，导致空间上的结构性错配。 实事求是地讲，文章对当下财政供养人员的现状分析总体还是比较客观的，也是基本符合财政供养人员 实际的。那么，为什么在中央一再要求控制财政供养人员规模、优化财政供养人员结构的情况下，财政 供养人员的数量仍然在增长呢，笔者认为，主要有这样几个方面的原因： 首先，随着中国人口寿命延长，离退休财政供养人员的比重在持续提高。文章提到，2020年，我国财政 供养人员中，近四成并非在职人员，其中，离退休人数已从2004年 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the increasing attention on the scale of government-funded personnel in China, particularly following the government's directive to strictly control this scale in 2025. It highlights a study estimating the number of such personnel and emphasizes the importance of understanding the structural changes within this group rather than just focusing on the total numbers [3]. Group 1: Government Personnel Scale and Structure - A recent study estimates that the total number of government-funded personnel in China reached approximately 68.46 million by 2020, although the growth rate has begun to stabilize [3]. - The composition of government-funded personnel is primarily made up of in-service staff, with a slight decrease in this group due to reforms aimed at optimizing personnel management [3]. - The growth in government-funded personnel since 2004 has largely been driven by an increase in retired personnel and non-staff members, with retired personnel accounting for nearly 40% of the total by 2020 [5]. Group 2: Regional Disparities and Structural Imbalances - There is a notable disparity in the distribution of government-funded personnel across regions, with a higher support ratio in western areas compared to eastern regions, leading to imbalances where some areas face personnel shortages despite high economic output [6]. - The article cites an example of a western county with a population of 30,200 but over 6,000 government-funded personnel, illustrating the "official-to-civilian" ratio issue [6]. Group 3: Policy Recommendations and Future Outlook - To effectively control the scale of government-funded personnel, it is recommended to clarify and optimize the boundaries of government and market responsibilities, streamline administrative levels, and adjust administrative divisions based on regional needs [7]. - The article suggests that the number of government-funded personnel is expected to remain stable in the coming years, with a focus on long-term planning rather than short-term needs in personnel allocation [7]. - Recent initiatives in some regions, such as Hunan Province, aim to reduce government-funded personnel through dynamic monitoring and fiscal constraints, with specific targets for personnel reduction and cost savings [9].

Core Viewpoint - The recent government work report emphasizes the need to "strictly control the scale of fiscal personnel," leading to widespread attention on the scale of fiscal personnel in China. However, due to the lack of publicly disclosed statistical data, discussions have largely been speculative without factual support [1]. Group 1: Fiscal Personnel Scale and Structure - A study published by researchers from Fudan University estimates that the total scale of fiscal personnel in China reached approximately 68.46 million by 2020, with a trend of gradual growth but a slowing increase rate [1]. - The growth in fiscal personnel since 2004 is primarily attributed to the rising number of retired personnel and non-staff personnel, with retired personnel accounting for nearly 40% of fiscal personnel by 2020 [2]. - The structure of fiscal personnel shows that two-thirds are concentrated in grassroots governments at the city and county levels, indicating a significant focus on local governance [2]. Group 2: Regional Disparities and Imbalances - There is a notable regional disparity in the distribution of fiscal personnel, with a "high in the west and low in the east" characteristic in the supply rate (the proportion of fiscal personnel to the total population). Areas with population outflow tend to have a higher supply rate [3]. - Some regions experience an imbalance where there are both surpluses and shortages of fiscal personnel, leading to situations where economically strong towns face personnel shortages due to rigid administrative structures [3]. Group 3: Policy Recommendations and Future Outlook - To control the scale of fiscal personnel, it is essential to promote government function transformation, clarify the boundaries of government and market responsibilities, and streamline administrative levels [4]. - The future number of fiscal personnel is expected to remain stable under the current policy direction, with a focus on optimizing personnel allocation based on regional differences and improving efficiency in public service matching [4]. - Recent initiatives in some regions, such as Hunan Province, have aimed to reduce fiscal personnel through institutional reforms and dynamic monitoring of personnel allocation, resulting in significant cost savings [6].

Core Insights - The scale of government-funded personnel in China is on the rise, but the growth rate has stabilized, with an estimated 68.46 million personnel in 2020 [1] - The increase in government-funded personnel is primarily attributed to the rise in retired and non-staff personnel, with retired personnel accounting for nearly 40% by 2020 [2][3] - There is a significant regional disparity in the distribution of government-funded personnel, with a higher supply in western regions and a lower supply in eastern regions, leading to an imbalance in personnel allocation [3] Group 1 - The government work report for 2025 emphasizes the need to "strictly control the scale of government-funded personnel," which has garnered widespread attention [1] - Research indicates that the growth in government-funded personnel since 2004 is mainly due to the increase in retired and non-staff personnel, with the latter doubling from 2004 to 2018 [2] - The majority of government-funded personnel are concentrated in grassroots governments at the city and county levels, with two-thirds of personnel located there [2] Group 2 - The government is implementing measures to optimize the structure of government-funded personnel, including reducing the number of personnel in central and state agencies by 5% [2] - The current policy direction aims to maintain overall stability in the number of government-funded personnel in the coming years, avoiding rapid growth [4] - Local reforms, such as those in Hunan Province, are focusing on reducing personnel and optimizing resource allocation to alleviate the financial burden of government-funded personnel [6]