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2026年非洲13国经济增速有望超过6%
Shang Wu Bu Wang Zhan· 2026-01-15 07:21
Core Insights - The report by the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) highlights that 13 African countries are expected to achieve economic growth rates exceeding 6% by the end of December 2026, supported by a backdrop of declining inflation and a relatively positive growth outlook for the continent [1] Group 1: Economic Growth Drivers - Key drivers of economic growth in Africa include ongoing infrastructure development, accelerated digital transformation, rapid inflow of foreign direct investment, expanding regional markets, and deeper integration into global value chains [1] - The report emphasizes that these interrelated structural factors will continue to provide growth support for multiple African countries in the coming years [1] Group 2: Regional Growth Distribution - The countries achieving high growth rates are primarily concentrated in West and East Africa, with notable mentions including Senegal, Guinea, Liberia, Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana, Togo, Niger, Ethiopia, Uganda, Tanzania, and Rwanda [2] - Additionally, Libya and Mozambique are the only countries outside these regions expected to experience significant growth [2] - West and East Africa are projected to remain the fastest-growing sub-regions in Africa, with West Africa benefiting from oil and gas development, renewable energy projects, and mineral resource investments [2] Group 3: South Africa's Economic Outlook - South Africa's economic performance is expected to be relatively moderate, with growth rates projected between 1.5% and 3% due to high-interest rates and significant import tariffs imposed by the U.S. on 30% of its exports [2] - However, a slight recovery in South Africa's economic growth is anticipated in the second half of 2026 as the impact of tariffs begins to ease [2] Group 4: Debt Concerns - The report warns that debt issues will remain a major risk for African economies, with many countries experiencing public debt levels at critical thresholds over the past decade [3] - These economies are highly sensitive to changes in the global financing environment, commodity price fluctuations, and exchange rate movements [3] - The EIU indicates that the risk of escalating debt pressure across multiple countries in Africa is rising, necessitating new rounds of fiscal and structural reforms [3]