Core Insights - Morgan Asset Management has released its "2026 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions" report, marking the 30th anniversary of this influential analysis that provides risk-return outlooks for various asset classes over the next 10 to 15 years [1][2] Group 1: Report Overview - The report has evolved from a simple asset allocation spreadsheet to a critical analysis relied upon by the global financial industry, incorporating insights from over a hundred seasoned portfolio managers, research analysts, and strategists [1] - It covers more than 200 assets across 20 currencies, offering strategic asset allocation insights to investors navigating volatile financial markets [1] Group 2: Investment Strategy - The report suggests that a 60/40 portfolio (60% MSCI All Country World Index + 40% US Aggregate Bond Index) is projected to yield an attractive annual return of 6.4% over the next 10 to 15 years, despite a year of rising global stock markets [2] - The inclusion of alternative assets in investment portfolios is expected to enhance potential returns and reduce volatility, with a simulated "60/40+" portfolio yielding an expected return of 6.9% when 30% is allocated to diversified alternative assets [3] Group 3: Market Trends and Predictions - The report highlights the impact of economic nationalism, fiscal activism, and technological innovation on future economic growth, inflation, and asset prices [3] - The long-term outlook for Chinese A-shares is positive, with an expected annualized return of 7.7% over the next 10-15 years, driven by resilient economic growth, stronger shareholder return policies, and potential valuation improvements [3]

摩根资产管理环球多资产策略师盛楠表示："恰逢第30期《长期资本市场假设》面世，我们回顾市 场三十年来的演变和发展，并探讨经济民族主义、财政积极主义及科技创新将如何塑造未来，这些趋势 均对经济增长、通胀及资产价格影响深远。我们的研究显示，投资组合纳入另类资产有望实现较佳投资 成果，不但有助提高潜在回报并降低波幅，夏普比率（Sharpe Ratio）亦有所提升。以'60/40+'模拟投资 组合为例，当30%资金配置到多元化另类资产，整体预期回报率将跃升至6.9%，夏普比率较传统60/40 模拟股债组合高出25%。" 摩根资产管理资深环球市场策略师朱超平表示："全球风险资产年初至今表现依然强劲，在强韧的 企业盈利及科技创新迅速发展的支撑下，全球公募基金市场长线回报前景依然乐观。值得关注的是，东 亚市场正掀起公司治理改革浪潮，特别是中国及韩国等市场，当地企业正积极提高公司治理水平、增加 股份回购、加强信息透明度，从根本改善资本回报，令企业的重点策略与股东利益更趋一致。" 对于中国股票资产的长期预测，盛楠表示，中国A股长期回报前景良好，根据此次新发布的报告， 在未来10-15年预计年化回报率为7.7%（以美元计价）。这 ...