Core Insights - Morgan Asset Management has released its "2026 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions" report, marking the 30th anniversary of this influential analysis that provides risk-return outlooks for various asset classes over the next 10 to 15 years [1][2] Group 1: Report Overview - The report has evolved from a simple asset allocation spreadsheet to a critical analysis relied upon by the global financial industry, incorporating insights from over a hundred seasoned portfolio managers, research analysts, and strategists [1] - It covers more than 200 assets across 20 currencies, offering strategic asset allocation insights to investors navigating volatile financial markets [1] Group 2: Investment Strategy - The report suggests that a 60/40 portfolio (60% MSCI All Country World Index + 40% US Aggregate Bond Index) is projected to yield an attractive annual return of 6.4% over the next 10 to 15 years, despite a year of rising global stock markets [2] - The inclusion of alternative assets in investment portfolios is expected to enhance potential returns and reduce volatility, with a simulated "60/40+" portfolio yielding an expected return of 6.9% when 30% is allocated to diversified alternative assets [3] Group 3: Market Trends and Predictions - The report highlights the impact of economic nationalism, fiscal activism, and technological innovation on future economic growth, inflation, and asset prices [3] - The long-term outlook for Chinese A-shares is positive, with an expected annualized return of 7.7% over the next 10-15 years, driven by resilient economic growth, stronger shareholder return policies, and potential valuation improvements [3]

摩根资产管理环球多资产策略师盛楠表示："恰逢第30期《长期资本市场假设》面世，我们回顾市 场三十年来的演变和发展，并探讨经济民族主义、财政积极主义及科技创新将如何塑造未来，这些趋势 均对经济增长、通胀及资产价格影响深远。我们的研究显示，投资组合纳入另类资产有望实现较佳投资 成果，不但有助提高潜在回报并降低波幅，夏普比率（Sharpe Ratio）亦有所提升。以'60/40+'模拟投资 组合为例，当30%资金配置到多元化另类资产，整体预期回报率将跃升至6.9%，夏普比率较传统60/40 模拟股债组合高出25%。" 摩根资产管理资深环球市场策略师朱超平表示："全球风险资产年初至今表现依然强劲，在强韧的 企业盈利及科技创新迅速发展的支撑下，全球公募基金市场长线回报前景依然乐观。值得关注的是，东 亚市场正掀起公司治理改革浪潮，特别是中国及韩国等市场，当地企业正积极提高公司治理水平、增加 股份回购、加强信息透明度，从根本改善资本回报，令企业的重点策略与股东利益更趋一致。" 对于中国股票资产的长期预测，盛楠表示，中国A股长期回报前景良好，根据此次新发布的报告， 在未来10-15年预计年化回报率为7.7%（以美元计价）。这 ...

Group 1: U.S. Trade Policy and Agreements - The U.S. has implemented a series of tariffs, including a 10% baseline tariff and additional tariffs based on trade deficits, with rates reaching up to 104% for China[14][3] - Since April 2025, the U.S. has engaged in three phases of trade negotiations: exploratory, difficult negotiations, and signing agreements, with significant pressure on trade partners to comply[10][2] - The agreements reached primarily reflect "America First" principles, with countries making concessions on tariffs, investments, and market access[2][1] Group 2: Global Economic Impact - The traditional multilateral trade order is being undermined, leading to a restructured global economic system where trade relations are increasingly determined by national power rather than market forces[2][1] - Economic nationalism and fair trade ideologies are emerging as new narratives in global trade, with countries forming regional alliances to enhance economic resilience[2][1] - Despite U.S. trade pressures, China's economy remains resilient, with a projected increase in foreign trade in the first three quarters of 2025, as other regions fill the gap left by reduced U.S. exports[3][1] Group 3: Risks and Uncertainties - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariff policies poses risks, as judicial challenges could lead to significant changes in trade relations[4][1] - The recent U.S.-China economic agreement is merely a framework and does not resolve underlying strategic differences, leaving room for future trade tensions[4][1] - Third-party countries may face pressure to align with U.S. policies, potentially leading to increased tariffs on Chinese products and further complicating China's economic landscape[4][1]

Economic Sentiment and Labor Market - The current economic sentiment is low despite a strong stock market performance, influenced by factors such as a government shutdown and lack of economic data [2][3][6] - The labor market is showing signs of softness, with a decline in available workers and labor force participation, indicating a low demand and low supply scenario [4][5][11] Government Shutdown Impact - The ongoing government shutdown is negatively affecting consumer and business sentiment, with potential long-term damage if it continues [2][3] - There is an expectation of a rebound in economic activity once the shutdown ends, particularly due to anticipated income tax refunds [7][10] Tax Refunds and Consumer Spending - The average income tax refund is projected to increase to over $4,000 next year, up from $3,200, which could boost consumer spending [8][10] - However, this boost is expected to be temporary, with a decline in spending anticipated by mid-year as the effects wear off [10][11] Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates in December, with a 70% chance reflected in futures markets, and potentially more cuts in the following year [12] - The Fed's ability to address underlying economic issues is limited, as many challenges stem from inefficiencies and economic nationalism rather than monetary policy [12][15] Inflation and Economic Challenges - There are concerns about rising inflation due to tariffs and the impact on American retailers, although this inflation is expected to be temporary [14][15] - The U.S. economy faces challenges from low labor supply, immigration issues, and tariffs, which could hinder long-term growth despite short-term boosts from the AI boom [15][16]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of Trump's new immigration policies, which commodify immigration rights, contrasting them with China's emerging talent attraction strategies that prioritize skilled individuals over financial capability [2][4][10]. Group 1: U.S. Immigration Policy Changes - Trump signed two executive orders introducing high-priced immigration options, including a "gold card" for $1 million and a "platinum card" for $5 million, effectively turning immigration into a marketable commodity [2]. - The new policy raises the cost of H-1B visas to $100,000, creating uncertainty for tech companies and their employees, leading to concerns about project continuity and talent retention [6][12]. - The financial sector is also affected, with major banks like JPMorgan and Citibank seeking legal advice due to potential disruptions in their core project teams caused by the visa price hikes [6]. Group 2: China's Response and Talent Attraction Strategy - In response to U.S. policies, China announced a new K visa program aimed at attracting global youth in technology, emphasizing talent over wealth [8][10]. - China's immigration strategy focuses on creating an attractive ecosystem for skilled professionals, contrasting with the U.S. approach that prioritizes capital [10][12]. - The number of foreign visitors to China has significantly increased, with over 13.64 million entries in the first half of the year, reflecting a long-term strategic focus on talent acquisition [10]. Group 3: Global Talent Dynamics - The article highlights a shift in the global talent landscape, where the U.S. is no longer the sole destination for skilled professionals, as evidenced by a growing interest in opportunities in China [4][16]. - A survey indicated that 75% of U.S. researchers are considering leaving the country, signaling a potential structural talent loss in the U.S. tech ecosystem [12][14]. - The contrasting strategies of the U.S. and China represent a deeper national strategic competition, with implications for future innovation and economic development [14][16].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the shift in U.S. strategy towards a multilateral approach in dealing with China, as President Trump acknowledges the difficulty of unilateral action and seeks to rally 36 allied nations to form a united front against China [1][3] - The upcoming U.S.-China trade talks in Madrid will focus on four key issues: intellectual property protection, forced technology transfer, rare earth export restrictions, and bilateral tariff adjustments [1] - Trump's mobilization of allies under the guise of secondary sanctions reflects the ineffectiveness of U.S. unilateralism and a fundamental shift in the global economic power structure, reminiscent of Cold War-era alliances [3][4] Group 2 - The article emphasizes that the current globalized economy has transformed, with interconnected supply chains and deep market integration, making it challenging for countries to sacrifice their own interests for the sake of alliances [3] - European nations, including Germany and France, openly oppose following the U.S. in imposing tariffs on China, indicating a rejection of Trump's aggressive strategy [3] - China's negotiation team demonstrates confidence due to its comprehensive industrial system, the importance of the Chinese market for multinational corporations, and a diversified network of international partnerships through mechanisms like RCEP and BRICS [3][4] Group 3 - The essence of the trade dispute is framed as a struggle over the distribution of global development benefits, with rare earth issues symbolizing supply chain security and equitable resource management [4][5] - The articles suggest that the confrontation between economic nationalism and global interconnectedness necessitates the establishment of a new cooperation philosophy in the international community [5]

Core Viewpoint - The appointment of Milan to the Federal Reserve Board represents a significant shift in monetary policy influenced by political considerations, signaling potential instability in the dollar system globally [1][4][8] Group 1: Appointment and Background - Milan's background aligns closely with Trump's economic policies, indicating that his decisions at the Federal Reserve will likely reflect the White House's agenda [3][4] - The sudden resignation of Kugler created an opportunity for Trump to appoint a trusted ally, further intertwining political influence with monetary policy [3][4] Group 2: Economic Implications - Milan's appointment may lead to a more accommodative monetary policy that supports Trump's economic nationalism, potentially prioritizing manufacturing and exports [4][6] - The politicalization of the Federal Reserve could result in decisions driven by electoral considerations rather than purely economic data, increasing uncertainty in global markets [6][8] Group 3: Global Financial Impact - Changes in U.S. monetary policy will have far-reaching effects on the global financial system, affecting capital flows, debt costs, and trade dynamics, particularly in emerging markets [6][8] - The potential for aggressive interest rate cuts to stimulate the U.S. economy could create short-term gains but risks long-term structural instability in the dollar's credibility and global financial order [6][8]

Group 1 - The implementation of "reciprocal tariffs" by the Trump administration, with rates ranging from 10% to 41% on key goods such as automobiles, machinery, electronics, and textiles, aims to retaliate against countries imposing tariffs on U.S. products [1] - The immediate market reaction was negative, with major U.S. stock indices experiencing significant declines: Dow Jones down 1.6%, Nasdaq down over 2.3%, and S&P 500 down 1.8%, resulting in a loss of over a trillion dollars in market value for companies like Amazon [1][3] - The policy has sparked widespread criticism from economists, including Nobel laureate Paul Krugman, who labeled it as a foolish approach that ultimately harms American citizens [3][6] Group 2 - The automotive industry is facing severe challenges due to rising costs of steel and aluminum, leading to profit declines for major companies like General Motors and Ford, which may resort to layoffs and production cuts [8] - Retail giants such as Walmart and Target are considering price increases to cope with rising input costs and inflation, which will ultimately burden American consumers [8] - The overall economic environment is deteriorating, with rising living costs exacerbating existing issues like high rents and inflation, contradicting the intended goal of economic recovery [8][15] Group 3 - China has prepared for potential repercussions from the U.S. tariff policy, emphasizing that trade wars yield no winners and are detrimental to the populace [10] - The Chinese government is actively reducing reliance on the U.S. market while enhancing trade relations with ASEAN, Africa, and the Middle East, indicating a strategic pivot in its economic partnerships [10] - The U.S. is facing increasing isolation as traditional allies express concerns over the unilateral tariff actions, with countries like Germany and France warning of potential retaliatory measures [12][13] Group 4 - The overarching sentiment is that the tariff policy is not a sustainable solution for economic issues, as it leads to market chaos rather than recovery, with consumers ultimately bearing the costs of increased tariffs [15] - The approach of using tariffs as a tool for economic negotiation is criticized as short-sighted and detrimental to long-term economic stability [15]

Core Viewpoint - The market's muted response to Trump's latest tariff announcements suggests a growing "policy fatigue" among investors, raising questions about whether this reflects market rationality or a desensitization to structural risks [3][4]. Group 1: Currency Market Reactions - The US dollar strengthened against a basket of major currencies, reaching a three-week high at an index of 98.07, while the euro fell to 1.1649 USD [3]. - The Mexican peso depreciated by 0.39% against the dollar, indicating its heightened sensitivity to trade policies compared to developed markets [4]. Group 2: Impact of Tariff Announcements - Trump's announcement of a 30% tariff on imports from the EU and Mexico, effective August 1, continues his aggressive trade stance, but the market's volatility has been limited [3]. - The ongoing trade threats from Trump are altering global monetary policy decision-making, with European Central Bank officials acknowledging that tariff threats are interfering with their interest rate policy assessments [3][4]. Group 3: Economic Indicators and Monetary Policy - Market focus is shifting towards upcoming US inflation data, with expectations for an annual rate of 2.7% and core inflation at 3.0% [3]. - The current dollar rebound is seen as a technical correction rather than a trend reversal, supported by rising US Treasury yields, while the probability of a 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve by year-end continues to increase [4].

Group 1 - The bond market is experiencing increasing differentiation as investors and policymakers respond to changing economic growth and inflation dynamics, with long-term bonds acting as a constraint on government strategies [1][5] - The average term premium in developed markets has exceeded 1.0% for the first time in 11 years, indicating rising concerns about debt sustainability [2][4] - The European Central Bank's inclination to continue lowering interest rates amidst rising defense spending and deteriorating fiscal outlooks in some countries may lead to higher long-term bond yields [4] Group 2 - In the current market environment, European financial bonds are favored due to their capital adequacy and limited exposure to U.S. trade policies, benefiting from German fiscal spending [6] - Emerging market corporate bonds are attractive, particularly those with limited exposure to the U.S., such as utilities and telecommunications, which have stable cash flows and low leverage [6] - Cautious views are maintained on long-term investment-grade corporate bonds due to narrow spreads and increased supply of U.S. Treasuries, which limit returns [6]