2月9日，金风科技（002202）以26.02元开盘，盘中最高价26.58元，截止收盘，其价格在26.19元，上涨 幅度2.67%，已收回2月5日高达9个点的跌幅，当时收盘价为24.82元。 这意味着金风科技暂时安全度过调查风波。 当地时间2月3日，欧盟委员会宣布依据《外国补贴条例》（FSR）针对金风科技在欧盟风电市场的业务 活动启动深入调查。这是欧盟FSR生效近三年后，再度将单边经贸工具的矛头对准中国企业。 金风科技的股价并没有因此连续大跌，投资者也没有疯狂抛盘，金风科技此前的股价下跌，更多是属于 风电板块内的调整，而非欧盟对它的调查。 其实，欧盟对于金风科技展开调查，并不奇怪。此前中国企业闻泰科技就被荷兰政府莫名其妙封查，强 制接管。 我们同时也要注意到，当前全球范围内，右翼民粹主义有不断发展的迹象，这些势力不断推动"经济民 族主义"，一些欧美右翼势力常将"对华强硬"作为政治筹码，鼓吹"保护本国就业与技术安全"。通胀高 企，产业空心化，以及能源危机等各种问题层出不穷，导致欧美社会焦虑加剧，部分政客将中国定义 为"系统性竞争对手"，通过对中企施压展示"强硬姿态"，迎合选民情绪，甚至有政客刻意炒作"中国威 胁 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent investigation by the European Commission into Goldwind Technology (金风科技) under the Foreign Subsidies Regulation (FSR), highlighting the implications for the company and the broader context of EU-China relations in the renewable energy sector [2][4][5]. Group 1: Investigation Context - On February 3, the European Commission announced a deep investigation into Goldwind Technology's operations in the EU wind power market, marking a significant action against a Chinese company under the FSR [4]. - This investigation is part of a broader trend where the EU has targeted multiple Chinese companies in 2024, indicating a pattern of scrutiny towards Chinese enterprises in the renewable energy sector [5]. - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce criticized the EU's actions as a form of protectionism disguised as fair competition, citing issues such as insufficient evidence and lack of transparency in the investigation process [5]. Group 2: Market Reaction and Company Performance - Despite the investigation, Goldwind Technology's stock price showed resilience, opening at 26.02 yuan and closing at 26.19 yuan, recovering from a previous drop [1][2]. - The company's stock performance is attributed more to sector-wide adjustments rather than direct fallout from the EU investigation [4]. - As of September 30, 2025, Goldwind Technology reported a high debt-to-asset ratio of 73.11%, indicating potential financial vulnerabilities [7]. Group 3: Strategic Implications - The EU's investigation is seen as an attempt to weaken the competitive edge of China's renewable energy sector, particularly in wind power, as Goldwind is a major player in this field [6]. - The article suggests that the EU's actions are driven by a desire to enhance energy sovereignty and reduce reliance on Chinese technology and products [6]. - The rise of right-wing populism in the West is contributing to a narrative that positions China as a systemic competitor, influencing policy decisions that affect Chinese companies [6].

《爱尔兰时报》1月30日报道，爱投资发展局(IDA)主席奥罗克表示，现在"有更多积极进取的参与 者"，"外国直接投资的竞争肯定比五年前更加激烈，而且有些国家的财力比爱尔兰雄厚得多"。但爱尔 兰拥有优势，IDA是"世界一流的投资机构"，在国际经济动荡的背景下，爱尔兰的经济稳定性终于开始 受到企业的认可。当企业前来洽谈在爱尔兰投资时，他们最关心的是竞争力、流程简化、基础设施以及 直接影响其资产负债表的问题。去年，IDA获得了创纪录的投资，并取得了丰硕的成果。在充满挑战的 经济环境下，经济民族主义抬头成为今年的一个突出趋势，尤其是在政治领域。"尽管奉行'美国优 先'的政策，但你不可能从美国征服世界，全球性组织必须向外拓展。"尽管人们的关注点主要集中在将 业务迁回美国，尤其是制药公司，但他表示，各公司仍在继续关注欧洲。 （原标题：爱投资发展局主席表示爱尔兰的经济稳定性对企业极具吸引力） ...

众所周知，澳大利亚北部有一个名为达尔文港的港口。2015年，中国岚桥集团通过公开竞标获得了澳大利亚外国投资审查委员会（FIRB）的批准，以5.06亿 澳元取得达尔文港99年的经营权。然而，随着澳大利亚政府重新考虑收回对此港口的控制权，局势变得复杂起来。 据彭博社消息，1月28日，中国驻澳大利亚大使肖千在堪培拉发出强烈警告，指出若澳方强制收回达尔文港，北京将不得不采取措施保护中企的合法权益。 在外交部的例行记者会上，发言人郭嘉昆重申，中企在达尔文港的投资是通过市场获得的，理应受到充分保护。这一系列言论表明中方对澳大利亚潜在违约 行为的坚决反对立场。 澳大利亚总理阿尔巴尼斯的想法似乎受到国内"经济民族主义"情绪与国家安全考量的影响。越来越多的声音指出，达尔文港作为重要物流枢纽，由中国企业 掌控可能影响国家安全。因此，阿尔巴尼斯在竞选期间强调要将港口控制在"澳大利亚人手中"，这不仅迎合了一部分选民的焦虑，也反映出其政府在国际关 系和国家安全上的复杂考虑。 问题在于，阿尔巴尼斯政府是否意识到，收回达尔文港可能会对澳大利亚的国际声誉及与中国的经济关系产生深远影响？从长远来看，收回租约可能打击中 国企业对澳投资的信心，尤 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View of the Report - Trump's policies in the new year aim to address domestic and international issues, providing a more favorable macro - environment for the AI narrative. The role of monetary policy is narrowing, and fiscal policy is expanding. The traditional economic policy framework is being replaced by the White House's executive power. In 2026, Trump will maximize his executive power, and the success of domestic policies will be judged by voters, while the international affairs will affect the US dollar credit [2][4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs First Arrow: Improving Affordability Domestically - Trump uses administrative means to control living costs instead of relying on the Fed's monetary policy, aiming to stimulate the "cold" end of the K - shaped economy (low - income groups and suppressed employment) [5]. - The labor income share of the US "working class" dropped to 53.8% in Q3 2025, continuing the downward trend since 2000. Tax cuts or direct cash - handouts will increase the government transfer payment ratio and cause greater fiscal deficit pressure [6]. - Trump's direct policies include setting a 10% credit - card interest - rate cap and intervening in the housing market (launching 50 - year mortgages and having "Fannie & Freddie" buy $200 billion of MBS). The 10% credit - card interest - rate cap is controversial and likely to backfire, causing a decline in credit supply and potential moral hazards, as well as increased inflation pressure. The purchase of MBS by "Fannie & Freddie" can increase mortgage demand and compress mortgage spreads to some extent [10][14]. - Trump's administrative means rely on the Fed's support, but his attempt to force Powell to resign may backfire. His control over the new Fed chair candidate is increasing, which is more "friendly" to the capital market [16]. Second Arrow: Seeking the "Greatest Common Divisor" of US Interests Abroad - Trump's actions in Venezuela and his interest in Greenland are to seek the greatest common divisor of "US national interests, voter concerns, and his political demands". The "Absolute Determination Operation" in Venezuela aims to build a US - led "Western Hemisphere energy fortress", and his interest in Greenland is for personal political gain and to achieve national strategic goals [19]. - Trump advocates an economic nationalism model to replace the Davos globalist model. His negotiation art often involves extreme pressure, and he may use various means such as tariffs and military intervention. Assets like gold and Bitcoin will face more frequent event - driven shocks [20]. - As the marginal utility of Trump's threats decreases, he may issue secondary threats, which may lead to the selling of US assets, rising long - term US Treasury yields, and increased liquidity pressure on the US stock market [21]. Third Arrow: Maintaining AI Leadership - Trump requires AI companies to prioritize US national interests, and his domestic and international policies are to create a better macro - environment for AI development. The investment proportion of computer and related equipment and data centers is increasing [22][23]. - In 2026, the importance of external financing for AI companies has increased, and the risk of private - credit funds investing in AI is also gathering. The current stock - price increase of AI companies far exceeds the debt - market pricing, and there is a potential risk of a significant stock - price correction [27][30]. Finally: The High Cost Borne by the US Dollar Credit - Trump's policies aim to maintain the stability of the US economic system, but their dynamic impacts are complex and uncertain, including fiscal, inflation, and deficit pressures. These policies are similar to the "Modern Monetary Theory" (MMT) previously advocated by the far - left [31]. - Administrative logic can temporarily overcome economic logic, but economic laws cannot be cancelled. The costs suppressed by administrative orders may turn into future inflation, default risks, and higher systemic volatility. The cost of Trump's policies will be borne by the US economy and the US dollar credit [32].

Group 1 - The core point of the news is the dramatic shift in President Trump's stance on Greenland, where he initially did not rule out the use of force but later stated he would not use military action to acquire the territory [3][4]. - The potential agreement between the U.S. and Denmark may involve the U.S. gaining military access rights and possibly priority rights over mineral resources in Greenland, similar to the UK's military bases in Cyprus [3][4]. - Trump's announcement at the World Economic Forum in Davos indicates a strategic pivot towards military and economic interests in Greenland and the Arctic region, reflecting a broader trend of U.S. assertiveness in global geopolitics [4][6]. Group 2 - The ongoing geopolitical dynamics suggest a shift from a rules-based international order to one defined by power and military might, as highlighted by the comments from global leaders at the World Economic Forum [6][16]. - The rise of nationalism and the decline of multilateralism are leading to increased tensions and potential conflicts between nations, as countries prioritize their own strategic interests [16][20]. - The financial markets reacted positively to Trump's softened rhetoric, indicating a temporary alleviation of fears regarding U.S.-Europe trade tensions [6][12]. Group 3 - The U.S. is undergoing a strategic adjustment, moving from a globalist approach to a hemispheric focus, emphasizing "America First" principles and a cost-benefit analysis in foreign policy [10][15]. - The potential for increased military spending and territorial ambitions reflects a broader trend of the U.S. asserting its influence in regions it considers vital to its national security [12][15]. - The implications of this shift could lead to a more fragmented global order, where power dynamics dictate international relations rather than established rules [16][20]. Group 4 - The situation in Greenland is emblematic of a larger trend where the U.S. is willing to exert its influence in strategic areas, potentially at the expense of traditional allies [10][21]. - The evolving U.S.-China relationship under Trump's administration suggests a more pragmatic approach, focusing on mutual benefits rather than ideological confrontations [20][21]. - China's response to the changing global landscape involves emphasizing rules and cooperation while building its own strength to navigate the complexities of international relations [22][24].

Core Insights - Morgan Asset Management has released its "2026 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions" report, marking the 30th anniversary of this influential analysis that provides risk-return outlooks for various asset classes over the next 10 to 15 years [1][2] Group 1: Report Overview - The report has evolved from a simple asset allocation spreadsheet to a critical analysis relied upon by the global financial industry, incorporating insights from over a hundred seasoned portfolio managers, research analysts, and strategists [1] - It covers more than 200 assets across 20 currencies, offering strategic asset allocation insights to investors navigating volatile financial markets [1] Group 2: Investment Strategy - The report suggests that a 60/40 portfolio (60% MSCI All Country World Index + 40% US Aggregate Bond Index) is projected to yield an attractive annual return of 6.4% over the next 10 to 15 years, despite a year of rising global stock markets [2] - The inclusion of alternative assets in investment portfolios is expected to enhance potential returns and reduce volatility, with a simulated "60/40+" portfolio yielding an expected return of 6.9% when 30% is allocated to diversified alternative assets [3] Group 3: Market Trends and Predictions - The report highlights the impact of economic nationalism, fiscal activism, and technological innovation on future economic growth, inflation, and asset prices [3] - The long-term outlook for Chinese A-shares is positive, with an expected annualized return of 7.7% over the next 10-15 years, driven by resilient economic growth, stronger shareholder return policies, and potential valuation improvements [3]

Core Insights - Morgan Asset Management has released its "2026 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions" report, providing risk-return outlooks for various asset classes over the next 10 to 15 years, aiding professional investors in building robust portfolios [1][2] - The report marks the 30th anniversary of the Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions, reflecting on significant global market changes over the past three decades, including the internet revolution, the emergence of the euro, the global financial crisis, quantitative easing, and the rise of AI [1][2] Investment Strategy - The report suggests a reevaluation of diversification and portfolio construction assumptions due to changing macroeconomic conditions, with a projected annual return of 6.4% for a 60/40 USD stock-bond portfolio over the next 10 to 15 years [2][3] - Despite a year of rising global stock markets, asset return forecasts remain robust, with AI expected to enhance corporate profits in the short term and productivity in the long term [2][3] Alternative Investments - Incorporating alternative assets into investment portfolios is expected to yield better outcomes, improving potential returns and reducing volatility, with a simulated "60/40+" portfolio showing an expected return of 6.9% when 30% is allocated to diversified alternative assets [3] - The Sharpe Ratio for this alternative-inclusive portfolio is projected to be 25% higher than that of the traditional 60/40 stock-bond portfolio [3] Regional Insights - The long-term outlook for Chinese A-shares is positive, with an expected annualized return of 7.7% over the next 10-15 years, driven by resilient economic growth, stronger shareholder return policies, and potential valuation upside [3] - Key factors supporting this outlook include the long-term resilience of economic growth, enhanced shareholder return policies such as share buybacks and cash dividends, and ongoing improvements in corporate governance [3]

Group 1: U.S. Trade Policy and Agreements - The U.S. has implemented a series of tariffs, including a 10% baseline tariff and additional tariffs based on trade deficits, with rates reaching up to 104% for China[14][3] - Since April 2025, the U.S. has engaged in three phases of trade negotiations: exploratory, difficult negotiations, and signing agreements, with significant pressure on trade partners to comply[10][2] - The agreements reached primarily reflect "America First" principles, with countries making concessions on tariffs, investments, and market access[2][1] Group 2: Global Economic Impact - The traditional multilateral trade order is being undermined, leading to a restructured global economic system where trade relations are increasingly determined by national power rather than market forces[2][1] - Economic nationalism and fair trade ideologies are emerging as new narratives in global trade, with countries forming regional alliances to enhance economic resilience[2][1] - Despite U.S. trade pressures, China's economy remains resilient, with a projected increase in foreign trade in the first three quarters of 2025, as other regions fill the gap left by reduced U.S. exports[3][1] Group 3: Risks and Uncertainties - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariff policies poses risks, as judicial challenges could lead to significant changes in trade relations[4][1] - The recent U.S.-China economic agreement is merely a framework and does not resolve underlying strategic differences, leaving room for future trade tensions[4][1] - Third-party countries may face pressure to align with U.S. policies, potentially leading to increased tariffs on Chinese products and further complicating China's economic landscape[4][1]

Economic Sentiment and Labor Market - The current economic sentiment is low despite a strong stock market performance, influenced by factors such as a government shutdown and lack of economic data [2][3][6] - The labor market is showing signs of softness, with a decline in available workers and labor force participation, indicating a low demand and low supply scenario [4][5][11] Government Shutdown Impact - The ongoing government shutdown is negatively affecting consumer and business sentiment, with potential long-term damage if it continues [2][3] - There is an expectation of a rebound in economic activity once the shutdown ends, particularly due to anticipated income tax refunds [7][10] Tax Refunds and Consumer Spending - The average income tax refund is projected to increase to over $4,000 next year, up from $3,200, which could boost consumer spending [8][10] - However, this boost is expected to be temporary, with a decline in spending anticipated by mid-year as the effects wear off [10][11] Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates in December, with a 70% chance reflected in futures markets, and potentially more cuts in the following year [12] - The Fed's ability to address underlying economic issues is limited, as many challenges stem from inefficiencies and economic nationalism rather than monetary policy [12][15] Inflation and Economic Challenges - There are concerns about rising inflation due to tariffs and the impact on American retailers, although this inflation is expected to be temporary [14][15] - The U.S. economy faces challenges from low labor supply, immigration issues, and tariffs, which could hinder long-term growth despite short-term boosts from the AI boom [15][16]