以下文章来源于微积分量化价投 ，作者微积分量化价投 微积分量化价投 . 专业，全面，深度，客观的研究，传递投资价值 ↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者：微积分量化价投 来源：雪球 "多元配置策略组合，需要择时吗？" 这句看似简单的提问，背后承载着每一位投资者都曾经历的内心交战：一边是市场波动带来的恐惧，想"落袋为安"；另一边是对踏空的焦虑， 想"再多赚一点"。对于股票这类高弹性资产，这种情绪尤为普遍。 但当我们面对一个已经通过资产配置降低了波动的"多元资产组合"时，问题似乎变得更加复杂：我们是否还需要用"择时"这把手术刀，对这个本已 相对稳健的系统进行干预？ 今天，我们不谈复杂的模型，不给"万能公式"，只想和你一起，像一位老朋友那样，拨开"择时"的迷雾，探寻其背后的投资哲学。 战略上的思考 一、颠覆认知：择时不谈对错，只论匹配 在我们深入之前，必须建立一个核心认知： 择时，本质上不是一个"是非题"，而是一个"匹配题" 。它考验的，是"资产的性格"与"投资者的能 力"这两者之间，能否达成和谐的统一。 1. 先看资产的" ...

证券研究报告 | 债券市场专题研究 | 债券研究 债券市场专题研究 报告日期：2025 年 08 月 22 日 基于卡玛比率的低收益高波动下债市应对策略 ——债市策略思考 核心观点 债市仍偏逆风，但低收益高波动的另一面是"错误定价"频现，建议投资者"低仓位 +高胜率"做好防守反攻，快进快出博弈超跌反弹机会。 ❑ 2025 年以来债市处于低收益、高波动状态 不同于过去一年债市的高收益、高波动状态，2025 年以来债市已进入低收益、高 波动状态：一方面，2025 年以来 10 年国债收益率波动明显加大；另一方面，从 基金业绩表现来看，2025 年以来基金回报率较往年有所下降。 ❑ 如何评价基金投资的性价比？ 分析师：郑莎 执业证书号：S1230524080012 zhengsha@stocke.com.cn 相关报告 1 《赎回潮行情何时至右侧？》 2025.08.20 2 《探析"反内卷"行情对利率 中枢的影响》 2025.08.18 3 《转债延续上涨，关注产业趋 势》 2025.08.17 （1）卡玛比率比夏普比率更能反映真实风险，但二者需结合使用。夏普比率更适 用于中短债及纯债类波动小，回撤较低的基金，而 ...

固定收益领域，内地地方政府专项债 (00899.HK/7T2YV) 与离岸人民币国债 (00899.HK/K4M9X) 收益率 维持 4.2%-5.8% 区间。在美联储降息周期延后的背景下，持有 (00899.HK/N6J3D)、(00899.HK/B8Z4C) 等短期票据，可有效对冲权益资产波动。 黄金作为避险工具出现新变化。上海金交所推出的数字黄金凭证 (00899.HK/3F7Q9)，通过区块链技术 实现 T+0 交割，其挂钩标的 (00899.HK/R5W2E) 年内日均交易量突破 80 吨。对于普通投资者，配置 (00899.HK/X1H6P)、(00899.HK/9V3L8) 等黄金 ETF 份额，既能规避实物存储成本，又可享受价格波动 收益。 在资产组合构建时，建议遵循「40% 权益 + 35% 固收 + 25% 另类」的配置比例。重点关注 (00899.HK/S4K7M)、(00899.HK/D2N5F) 等港股通标的，同时配置 (00899.HK/Q8J4G)、 (00899.HK/L3P9Z) 等跨境债券品种。通过 (00899.HK/6T1R9)、(00899.HK/Y5B8C) 等黄金 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of a top-down research approach in navigating market uncertainties, utilizing macroeconomic data and policy directions to form a probability framework for decision-making [2]. Group 1: Macroeconomic Insights - The macroeconomic environment is characterized by a potential slowdown in the US and European economies, with risks and opportunities coexisting due to monetary policy easing and its impact on corporate earnings and emerging market liquidity [3]. - The report highlights the significance of supply-demand balance as a key factor for the basic fundamentals to improve further [5]. Group 2: Policy Directions and Asset Pricing - Four major policy directions are analyzed for their impact on industry dynamics and overall corporate earnings growth predictions for the second half of the year [11]. - The report discusses a "mirror" distribution of concentrated debt in the first half of the year and an increase in construction projects in the second half, indicating a diversification of fiscal tools [9]. Group 3: Inflation and Pricing Dynamics - The analysis of the current inflation cycle reveals a preliminary formation of price diffusion effects, with expectations for price trends in the second half of the year and early next year [12]. - The consensus on supply-demand imbalance has constrained inflation expectations, which may change in the second half as new policy tools are implemented [10]. Group 4: Long-term Planning and Strategic Insights - A comprehensive study of the 14th Five-Year Plan outlines key themes such as innovation-driven growth, supply-demand balance, and regional collaboration, which are essential for understanding short-term expectations and mid-term policy clues [14].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of the Sharpe ratio as a key metric for evaluating the performance of private equity products, highlighting that a higher Sharpe ratio indicates better risk-adjusted returns and is a significant criterion for investors when selecting funds [1][3]. Summary by Categories 100 Billion and Above - Among the 432 stock strategy products, the average return from January to July is 18.45%, with an average Sharpe ratio of 2.56, indicating strong performance in the 100 billion and above category [2][3]. - The top three products in this category are managed by Wenbo Investment, Kuande Private Equity, and Evolution Asset, all of which are quantitative long strategies [3]. 50-100 Billion - In the 50-100 billion category, there are 158 stock strategy products with an average return of 16.32% and an average Sharpe ratio of 2.21 [6]. - The leading products are from Pingfang Investment, Dadao Investment, and Tiansuan Quantitative, showcasing a mix of quantitative and subjective strategies [6]. 20-50 Billion - The 20-50 billion category includes 265 stock strategy products, with an average return of 18.80% and an average Sharpe ratio of 2.26 [10]. - The top products are managed by Jiuming Investment, Xiangmu Asset, and Zhaorong Hui Li Private Equity, indicating a strong performance in this segment [10]. 10-20 Billion - In the 10-20 billion category, the average return is 23.84% with an average Sharpe ratio of 2.02 [12]. - The leading product is managed by Yangshi Asset, reflecting a notable performance in this size category [12]. 5-10 Billion - The 5-10 billion category has 387 stock strategy products, with an average return of 21.08% and an average Sharpe ratio of 1.69 [16]. - The top products are from Manfeng Asset, Hanxin Fund, and Mingyu Investment, indicating competitive performance [16]. 0-5 Billion - In the 0-5 billion category, there are 1173 stock strategy products with an average return of 17.57% and an average Sharpe ratio of 1.60 [21]. - The leading products are from Hunan Zijin Private Equity, Guangzhou Tianzhanhan, and Quancheng Fund, showing a diverse range of strategies [21].

Group 1 - The convertible bond market has experienced volatility, with the China Securities Convertible Bond Index declining for four consecutive days until June 24, but showing signs of stabilization with a 0.41% increase on June 25 and a further 1.40% increase on June 26 [1] - As of the end of Q1, there were 140 funds with over 50% allocation in convertible bonds, many of which faced significant net value declines during the market's downturn, leading to some funds turning from profit to loss [1] - A significant portion of funds, 51, reported floating profits as of June 26, while 94 funds had floating profits as of June 18, indicating a recovery trend in the market [1] Group 2 - The performance of convertible bond funds has shown a stark divergence, with the top and bottom products differing by over 20 percentage points in year-to-date returns, with Anxin Minwen Growth A leading at 9.74% [2] - Despite recent volatility, historical data suggests that convertible bonds have a higher Sharpe ratio compared to stock indices and equity funds, indicating better risk-adjusted returns [2] - The current valuation of convertible bonds is considered low, providing strong cost-effectiveness compared to pure bonds, and there is an expectation for valuation recovery as the market stabilizes [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article provides an in-depth analysis of the semi-annual report on bank wealth management, highlighting hidden asset clues and industry trends [2][13]. Group 1: Market Scale and Growth - The total scale of wealth management products in the market reached 30.67 trillion, with a year-on-year growth of 7.53% [18]. - The scale of bank wealth management products decreased by 24.04%, while wealth management companies saw a growth of 12.98%, reaching 27.48 trillion [18]. - The increase in wealth management scale is attributed to the downward adjustment of deposit rates and the ongoing trend of funds shifting from banks to non-bank financial institutions [18]. Group 2: Product Duration and Structure - Products with a duration of over one year now account for 72.86% of the total, an increase of 5.71% since the beginning of the year [21]. - The scale of cash management products has decreased by 4.38%, indicating pressure on money market funds [21]. Group 3: Product Types and Investment Focus - Fixed-income products dominate the wealth management market, comprising 97.20% of the total products [24]. - The proportion of equity investments in wealth management products has decreased from 2.6% to 2.4% over the last quarter [27]. Group 4: Investment Returns - The average annualized return of wealth management products in the first half of 2025 was 2.12%, a decrease of over 50 basis points compared to the previous year [31]. - Wealth management products generated a total return of 3.896 billion for investors in the first half of 2025 [31]. Group 5: Distribution Channels - Approximately two-thirds of wealth management product sales are through the parent bank, while one-third comes from external channels [35]. - Some wealth management subsidiaries have seen their external sales exceed 40%, indicating a shift in distribution strategy [35]. Group 6: Personal Pension Business - The balance of wealth management products related to personal pensions reached 15.1 billion, with a growth rate of 64% [39].

Core Insights - The article presents a comparative analysis of various investment products based on their performance metrics such as return volatility, Sharpe ratio, average maximum drawdown, and recovery rates during the first half of 2025 [1] Group 1: Performance Metrics - The average return volatility for fixed income products is 1.25%, with a Sharpe ratio of 0.85 and an average maximum drawdown of -0.72% [1] - "Fixed Income +" category products show a higher average return of 2.63% with a Sharpe ratio of 1.68 and a maximum drawdown of -0.78% [1] - Pure bond fixed income products have an average return of 2.17%, a Sharpe ratio of 1.59, and a maximum drawdown of -0.19% [1] - Mixed category products outperform with an average return of 4.63%, a Sharpe ratio of 1.29, and a maximum drawdown of -1.65% [1] Group 2: Short Holding Period Analysis - For the shortest holding period, "Fixed Income +" products yield an average return of 2.98% with a Sharpe ratio of 1.78 and a maximum drawdown of -0.42% [1] - Pure bond fixed income products in the shortest holding period have an average return of 2.05%, a Sharpe ratio of 1.45, and a maximum drawdown of -0.18% [1] - The market average for the shortest holding period across all categories is 1.96% return, 0.47 Sharpe ratio, and -0.13% maximum drawdown [1]

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China has a total of 16,563 billion yuan in reverse repos maturing this week, with specific maturities of 1,707 billion, 2,148 billion, 1,505 billion, 3,310 billion, and 7,893 billion yuan from Monday to Friday [1] - The central bank conducted a net injection of 3,251 billion yuan today through a 4,958 billion yuan 7-day reverse repo operation at an interest rate of 1.40%, unchanged from previous rates [1] - The yield on the 30-year government bond "25 Super Long Special Government Bond 02" decreased by 2 basis points to 1.9275%, while the 10-year policy bank bond "25 Policy Bank 10" yield fell by 1.75 basis points to 1.81% [1] Group 2 - As of July 25, 2025, the 5-10 year government bond ETF has seen a net value increase of 19.81% over the past five years, with a maximum monthly return of 2.58% since inception and a longest consecutive monthly gain of 10 months [2] - The historical performance shows a profit percentage of 100.00% annually, with a monthly profit probability of 72.37% and a 100.00% probability of profit over a three-year holding period [2] Group 3 - The maximum drawdown for the 5-10 year government bond ETF this year is 2.15%, with a relative benchmark drawdown of 0.59% [3] - The management fee for the ETF is 0.15%, and the custody fee is 0.05% [3] Group 4 - The tracking error for the 5-10 year government bond ETF over the past two months is 0.032%, closely tracking the CSI 5-10 Year Government Bond Active Index [4] - The index includes bonds with maturities of 5, 7, and 10 years, selected from the market to reflect the overall performance of these government bonds [4]

Core Viewpoint - The core contradiction in China's macroeconomic landscape in recent years is the relationship between residents' savings and spending, which influences economic circulation, monetary policy, and the relationship between stocks and bonds, referred to as the "three arrows" [2] Group 1: Changes in Residents' Savings - Residents' savings are transitioning from "excessive saving" to "normal saving" and then to "spending," indicating an improvement in economic circulation [2][10] - The shift in residents' savings will likely lead to a pulse-like movement in non-bank deposits, which could drive asset prices up rapidly [3] - The increase in non-bank deposits, viewed as "under-allocated" funds, has the potential to push asset prices higher [3] Group 2: Monetary Policy Implications - As residents begin to spend their savings, the necessity for monetary policy to remain loose diminishes, allowing for a tighter monetary stance [4][14] - The transition from saving to spending by residents will likely reduce the need for further monetary easing by the central bank, especially if it leads to improved corporate profits and investment [13][14] Group 3: Stock and Bond Market Dynamics - The relationship between stocks and bonds will shift towards favoring stocks as residents' spending increases, leading to a "look at stocks, do bonds" strategy rather than a simultaneous bull market in both [16][17] - The current environment suggests that stocks are becoming more attractive compared to bonds, with a notable increase in the Sharpe ratio for stocks relative to bonds [18] - The divergence in the Sharpe ratio between stocks and bonds indicates a significant recovery in the attractiveness of equity investments [18]