文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人： 袁玲玲（微信 Yuen43） 核心观点 报告摘要 （一）出行：维持韧性，但增速较五一趋缓 今年国庆出行仍有韧性，但增速较五一假期边际放缓 。 据交通运输部数据，假期前五天，全社会跨区域人员流动量同比 +5.3% ， 五一假期同比 +7.9% 。 结构上，增速偏低的是与中长途旅游相关的铁路和民航 ， 同比增速均不到 4% ，五一假期同比增速均在 10% 以上。 偏高的是水 路和出入境 ， 水路客运同比 8.7% ，主要受城市观光游、邮轮游推动；出入境增长明显，前 6 日国际航班执行数同比 11.7% ，明 显高于整体民航增速。 国庆假期，出行仍有韧性，但增速较五一趋缓 。 假期前 5 日，全社会跨区域人员流动量同比增长 5.3% ，但增速较五一假期的 7.9% 有所放缓。结构上，增速偏低的是与中长途旅游相关的铁路民航，偏高的是水路和出入境。 零售消费增速偏低，同比增长 3.3% ，或隐含 10 月社零有一定压力。结构上，国补在 10 月延续，拉动家居家电实现双位数增长。 物价冷热不均 。 食品价格稳定，白酒 ...

昨天有读者看完《一看就懂！挑选基金的十大指标》后补充，卡玛比率也是一个重要参考指标，确实如此，此前我也有多篇文章介绍。 基础筛选篇 推荐阅读： 介绍九位能涨抗跌的基金经理，最关键的是基金经理本人持有超100万份！ 近五年业绩优秀的主动基金都长啥样 夏普比率选出的十大牛基（10年期） 卡玛比率是一个非常实用且高效的"排雷"和"择优"工具。它衡量的是每承受一单位"最大回撤"，能带来多少超额回报。 其计算公式为： 卡玛比率 = 年化收益率 / 最大回撤 比率越高，说明基金的风险调整后收益越好，也就是"性价比"越高。 以下是卡玛比率的10种具体用法，从基础到高级，助你更好地筛选基金： 一、初步快速排雷 用法：将卡玛比率设为第一个筛选条件。例如，在所有同类基金中，只考虑卡玛比率大于1的基金。卡玛比率小于1，意味着你承受的回撤痛苦可能大于你获 得的收益，这类基金需要谨慎考虑。 目的：快速剔除掉那些收益与风险不匹配的"差生"。 二、同类基金对比 用法：在比较同类型、同主题的基金时（例如都是"医药主题基金"或都是"沪深300增强基金"），直接对比它们的卡玛比率。比率更高的那只，通常意味着 基金经理在控制回撤和获取收益方面做得 ...

"为什么别人买基金能赚钱，自己却总踩坑？"这是无数基民共同的困惑。选基金不是开盲盒，更不是追热点买爆款，而是需要一套科学筛选逻辑。本文将拆 解选基三大核心维度——历史业绩、基金经理、夏普比率，用真实案例和通俗计算方式，教你用专业视角避开雷区，找到真正值得托付的"潜力基"。 误区警示：新基金宣传"申购费1折""首日售罄"，这类营销话术与基金赚钱能力无关。历史业绩虽不代表未来收益，但却是验证基金竞争力的"试金石"。 筛选步骤： 1. 优先选择成立3年以上的老基金 2. 权益类基金（如股票型、混合型）需经历完整市场周期检验。新基金缺乏历史数据支撑，如同"盲人摸象"，难以评估真实水平。 3. 同类排名前1/4是基准线 9. 案例：某消费主题基金2018年沪深300下跌25%，该基金仅跌18%；2019年迅速反弹55%，体现攻守兼备特性。 股票型基金经理：长期年化15%以上为优秀； 债券型基金经理：年化5%-8%且最大回撤小于3%为佳。 对比案例： 经理A：前3年收益100%，后2年每年亏损60%，5年累计回报仅28%； 经理B：每年稳定回报15%，5年累计收益达101%。 数据支撑：据Wind统计，近10年偏股混合型 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the relationship between volatility and risk, emphasizing that understanding volatility is crucial for becoming an excellent investor, as it is a tangible risk rather than a mere psychological issue [8][40]. Academic Perspective: Volatility = Risk - The Sharpe Ratio is highlighted as a key metric for evaluating fund performance, indicating that returns should be assessed in relation to the risks taken [10]. - Traditional financial theories define risk as the uncertainty of future returns, represented by price volatility [11]. - Historical examples illustrate that even if an investor believes in a company's future recovery, immediate financial needs can force them to sell at a loss due to volatility [12]. - The article argues that higher volatility necessitates higher expected returns as compensation, exemplified by the comparison of different funds and their respective drawdowns during market adjustments [14][15]. Practical Perspective: Volatility ≠ Risk - Warren Buffett's perspective is presented, asserting that volatility does not equate to risk; instead, the true risk is the permanent loss of capital [18][21]. - Buffett emphasizes that good companies can have high volatility without being poor investments, while low volatility can accompany poor business performance [19]. - The article notes that Buffett's views on volatility have evolved, initially seeing it as a source of profit but later recognizing it as a neutral concept [23][26]. Trading Perspective: Volatility = Return - The article discusses how risk-averse investors dislike volatility, while risk-seeking investors view it as an opportunity for returns [28][30]. - It explains that volatility can be treated as a tradable commodity, with strategies like options trading reflecting this dynamic [31][32]. - The article highlights that different trading strategies exist based on attitudes towards volatility, such as trend trading and grid trading, each with its own risk and return profiles [36][38]. Conclusion - The article concludes that volatility is an inherent aspect of the financial world, prompting investors to distinguish between what can be controlled and what cannot, as well as what can be judged and what cannot [44].

（2）在风险调整后的表现上，也就是投资圈常用的夏普比率（Sharpe ratio），有47个因子组合在波动率管理后提升了，其中15个 提升显著。 （3）这些超额收益主要集中在价值（value）、盈利能力（profitability）、交易摩擦（trading friction）三类因子上。换句话说，波 动率管理让这些经典的选股逻辑更"抗揍"。 举个形象的例子：原始的价值因子，就像是一辆"快车"，能跑得快，但一旦遇到急转弯就容易翻车；加上波动率管理，就好比给这 辆车装了防抱死制动系统（ABS），速度可能稍慢，但在急弯处不容易被甩出去，跑完全程的胜率反而更高。 如果你是个A股老股民，特别是如果经历过2015年的股市大跌，大概会记得那种"手抖"的感觉：早晨还在犹豫要不要加仓，午后就 被跌停板封死在里面；好不容易熬到反弹，却又在高点追进去，第二天再被套牢。当时短短三个月的时间里，沪深总市值急剧蒸发 了24.28万亿，这是中国股市发展史上最严重的一次股灾。 围绕"3000点魔咒"，这种"追涨杀跌"的故事，过去数年几乎每个中国股民都耳熟能详。问题在于：面对剧烈的市场波动，能不能有 一种机制，既能保住底线，又能抓住机会？ ...

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the importance of financial education in protecting financial rights and enhancing quality of life, particularly in the context of the fund industry taking action during the 2025 Financial Education Promotion Week [1] - It discusses the composition of fund returns, highlighting that fund returns consist of benchmark returns and excess returns (α), with a benchmark return of 10% and an excess return of 8% leading to a total fund return of 18% [3][4] - The article explains that known declines are not risks; rather, uncertainty (volatility) is what constitutes risk in investments [3] Group 2 - It introduces the concept of "Sharpe Ratio" as a key metric for evaluating the risk-return profile of funds, defined as (Fund Return - Risk-Free Return) / Volatility, indicating a higher investment "cost-performance" ratio with a higher Sharpe Ratio [5] - The article also presents the "Information Ratio" as a measure of a fund manager's ability to generate excess returns relative to the benchmark, calculated as Excess Return (α) / Tracking Error, with a higher Information Ratio indicating better sustainable enhancement effects [6][7] - Understanding these five key metrics helps investors comprehend what they are earning, where risks originate, and the investment cost-performance ratio, facilitating rational decision-making in investments [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the performance of stock strategy products in the context of increased market volatility due to tariffs, policy shifts, and geopolitical conflicts, emphasizing the importance of the Sharpe ratio as a measure of risk-adjusted returns [1][18]. Summary by Sections Overall Market Performance - Over the past three years, the average Sharpe ratio for stock strategy products was 0.69, with an average return of 64.17%. Among 1,723 products, 333 had a Sharpe ratio greater than 1, representing 19.33% of the total [1]. Top Products by Size Categories - **100 Billion and Above**: - The top product was "Junzhijian Junxin" managed by Zhang Youjun and Zhang Yichi, achieving a Sharpe ratio of *** and a return of ***% [4]. - Seven out of ten top products were subjective long strategies, with Junzhijian Investment holding half of the top spots [4]. - **50-100 Billion**: - "Pingfanghe Caiying Balanced No. 1 B Class" from Pingfanghe Investment topped this category with a return of ***% and a Sharpe ratio of *** [6][7]. - Six out of ten products were subjective long strategies, with two products each from Qianhai Bopu Asset and Kaishi Private Equity [6]. - **20-50 Billion**: - "Anzi Geek Multi-Strategy No. 1 A Class" managed by Li Jing was the top performer with a return of ***% and a Sharpe ratio of *** [10]. - Four subjective long and four quantitative long products made the top ten list [10]. - **10-20 Billion**: - "Jilu No. 11" from Jilu Asset achieved the highest return of ***% and a Sharpe ratio of *** [12]. - The top three products were all quantitative long strategies [12]. - **5-10 Billion**: - "Beiheng No. 2" managed by Zhou Yixing led this category with a return of ***% and a Sharpe ratio of *** [14]. - All top eight products were subjective long strategies [13]. - **0-5 Billion**: - The highest entry threshold was noted in this category, with "Saisuo Stable Profit No. 1" leading with a return of ***% and a Sharpe ratio of *** [15][16]. - Seven out of ten products were subjective long strategies [15].

Core Viewpoint - Volatility is not risk itself; the true risk is "permanent loss." However, volatility manifests as risk, triggering investor fear and behavioral biases, turning risk into reality and providing opportunities for counterparties to profit [4][38]. Group 1: Perspectives on Volatility - Three views on volatility have emerged: 1. Risk-averse investors see volatility as risk that needs to be avoided [5]. 2. Risk-seeking investors view volatility as a source of returns that should be embraced [6]. 3. Value investors consider volatility to be neutral, with investment risk stemming solely from operational risks leading to permanent losses [7][39]. Group 2: Academic Perspective - The Sharpe Ratio, a key metric for assessing fund performance, emphasizes that returns should be evaluated against the risks taken to achieve them [17]. - Traditional financial theories, such as Markowitz's Modern Portfolio Theory, define risk as the uncertainty of future returns, represented by price volatility [18]. - Historical price fluctuations can create a false sense of security, as investors may not recognize the potential for future losses during periods of volatility [19][20]. Group 3: Practical Perspective - Warren Buffett has explicitly rejected the notion that volatility equates to risk, emphasizing that the most significant risk is the permanent loss of capital [24][26]. - Buffett's investment philosophy focuses on the intrinsic value of companies, viewing short-term volatility as mere "noise" that does not pose a substantial threat unless forced to sell at a loss [27]. Group 4: Trading Perspective - The view that "volatility equals returns" stems from the fact that many investors dislike uncertainty and volatility, particularly large funds [29]. - High volatility assets often trade at a discount, reflecting the risk aversion of investors, while the actual risk remains objectively present [30][31]. - Volatility can be treated as a tradable commodity, with strategies like options trading reflecting the relationship between volatility and risk [32][33]. Group 5: Nature of Volatility - Volatility is an inherent aspect of the financial world, reminding investors of the constant changes and the need to distinguish between what can and cannot be controlled [42].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the relationship between volatility and risk, emphasizing that while volatility is often equated with risk, it can also represent potential returns depending on the investor's perspective [6][34]. Group 1: Academic Perspective on Volatility - Volatility is defined as risk in traditional finance, where it represents the uncertainty of future returns [7][9]. - The Sharpe Ratio is highlighted as a key metric for evaluating fund performance, taking into account the risk taken to achieve returns [8][10]. - Historical volatility is used to quantify risk, with higher volatility indicating greater risk and necessitating higher expected returns [11][12]. Group 2: Practical Perspective on Volatility - Warren Buffett and other value investors argue against equating volatility with risk, focusing instead on the risk of permanent capital loss [15][18]. - The article presents a dichotomy where risk-averse investors view volatility as something to avoid, while risk-seeking investors see it as an opportunity for profit [23][34]. - Different investment strategies are discussed, including those that embrace volatility for potential gains, such as grid trading and trend trading [31][32]. Group 3: Trading Perspective on Volatility - Volatility can be viewed as a tradable commodity, with options pricing reflecting historical volatility [26][27]. - The article explains that risk is a commodity that can be bought and sold, with different strategies catering to varying attitudes towards volatility [25][28]. - The concept of "volatility = returns" is explored, indicating that higher volatility can lead to greater profit opportunities for certain investors [22][24]. Group 4: Conclusion on Volatility - The article concludes that volatility is an inherent aspect of the financial world, influencing investor behavior and creating opportunities for profit [39][40]. - It emphasizes the importance of understanding what can be controlled and what cannot in the context of volatility and investment strategies [38][39].

Group 1 - The article discusses the importance of understanding volatility in investment, emphasizing that it is a significant risk factor that can impact investor returns [3][4][11] - It contrasts two funds: Fund A with a 15% annualized return but high volatility, and Fund B with a 10% return and low volatility, suggesting that investors in Fund B may achieve better average returns due to lower drawdowns [10][11] - The article highlights that while volatility is often viewed as a risk, some investment experts, like Warren Buffett, argue that it should not be equated with risk, focusing instead on the risk of permanent capital loss [12][14] Group 2 - The article explains that volatility can be seen as a source of potential returns, particularly in trading strategies that embrace market fluctuations [15][20] - It outlines different investor attitudes towards volatility: risk-averse investors view it as a risk to avoid, while risk-seeking investors see it as an opportunity for profit [23][24] - The discussion includes various trading strategies that leverage volatility, such as grid trading and trend trading, which require different approaches to managing risk and returns [20][22]