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国泰海通|非银:产寿保费边际回落,看好26年开门红增长
Core Viewpoint - The insurance industry is experiencing a marginal decline in premium growth for life insurance as of October 2025, with a shift in focus towards business preparations for 2026, particularly in new business value (NBV) growth for life insurance [1][2][4]. Life Insurance Summary - From January to October 2025, the cumulative premium income for the life insurance sector reached 39,924 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9.6%. The breakdown includes life insurance at 32,748 billion yuan (up 12.0%), health insurance at 6,850 billion yuan (up 0.1%), and accident insurance at 326 billion yuan (down 9.2%) [2]. - In October 2025, the monthly premium income for life insurance was 1,040 billion yuan, showing a decline of 5.1% year-on-year [2]. - The decline in premium growth is attributed to insurance companies shifting their operational focus towards 2026 due to the satisfactory achievement of business goals for 2025 [2]. Non-Life Insurance Summary - The cumulative premium income for the non-life insurance sector from January to October 2025 was 14,908 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.0%. This includes motor insurance at 7,612 billion yuan (up 3.2%) and non-motor insurance at 7,297 billion yuan (up 4.9%) [3]. - In October 2025, the monthly premium income for non-life insurance was 1,196 billion yuan, down 5.5% year-on-year, with motor insurance premiums at 776 billion yuan (down 6.6%) and non-motor insurance premiums at 420 billion yuan (down 3.4%) [3]. - The slowdown in motor insurance growth is expected due to a marginal decline in the number of insured vehicles, while non-motor insurance growth is facing pressure from seasonal underwriting factors and the implementation of policy changes [3]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates that the life insurance sector will see a positive growth in NBV for the 2026 opening, driven by the transformation of participating insurance products and improved investment returns from leading insurers [4]. - For non-life insurance, the comprehensive governance of non-motor insurance is expected to further improve the combined operating ratio (COR) [4]. - The overall investment recommendation remains "overweight" for the insurance sector, with expectations of good growth in NBV for listed insurance companies in 2026 [5].