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Mhmarkets迈汇:黄金的长期逻辑仍未失效
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-06 10:42
Core Viewpoint - The gold market is at a critical stage of potential upward movement, with current price fluctuations not indicating the end of an upward trend but rather the beginning of a new rising cycle, highlighting its strategic allocation value [1] Group 1: Economic and Political Factors - Gold prices reflect a combination of economic, political, and financial uncertainties, serving as an important tool for investors to restructure risk margins when traditional assets face systemic pressures [1] - Global monetary policy uncertainty remains a significant driver of gold demand, with low or negative real interest rates providing ongoing support for gold prices amid persistent inflation pressures [3] - Concerns over debt sustainability due to fiscal expansion are influencing asset allocation preferences, with gold typically gaining favor when debt levels rise without clear economic growth prospects [3] Group 2: Geopolitical and Currency Trust Issues - The current global governance environment, characterized by weakened multilateral mechanisms and frequent geopolitical events, enhances market vigilance regarding systemic stability, making gold more attractive [3] - Trust in the currency system is being tested, leading to a potential shift of funds into assets with value anchoring properties, with gold emerging as a key vehicle for hedging against currency devaluation and loss of trust [3] Group 3: Investment Perspective - Gold's cross-cycle adaptability allows it to perform well in various economic conditions, including high inflation, high volatility, and economic slowdowns, reinforcing its role as a long-term stabilizer in asset portfolios [4] - Investors are encouraged to reassess gold's role in their portfolios from a risk management and asset structure optimization perspective, moving away from viewing it solely as a short-term trading tool [4] - The long-term value of gold is supported by both real driving forces and logical foundations, with short-term adjustments providing a window for rational investors to enter the market [4]